Saving Runs: Assessing The Rangers' Defensive Renovations

Elvis Andrus successfully turns a double play against the Blue Jays on Thursday, April 23rd.The ballclub that has so tirelessly worked to shatter a multitude of my pre-season projections regarding its 2009 outlook over these past three-odd weeks has now emerged as the American League's second-best defensive team by a fairly wide margin, saving no fewer than 15 runs above average through the regular season's first seven weeks by means of extraordinary range at several key defensive positions and steadfast, error-resistant glovework.

A point likely exists where this incessant extolling of the virtues of superior defense becomes repetitious, but we're not quite there yet, and before we cross that threshold it might be beneficial to engage in some snapshot defensive analysis via the two preeminent metrics that are updated no less frequently than weekly: Ultimate Zone Rating (data supplied by FanGraphs and listed behind the slash marks included in the below player-position defensive matrix), and the plus/minus defensive rating system (data supplied by Bill James Online and listed ahead of the slash marks). All of the below figures denote runs saved above or below average (with bolded figures denoting top-10 rankings at a given position), and player and position totals have been included for the sake of convenience:

Texas Rangers Defensive Assessment (05/19/09) -- UZR (left) & +/- (right)
Player	1B	2B	3B	SS	LF	CF	RF	Total
Elvis Andrus	- - -	- - -	- - -	+4.2/+5.0	- - -	- - -	- - -	+4.2/+5.0
Hank Blalock	+0.1/+0.0	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	+0.1/+0.0
Marlon Byrd	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	-2.7/+3.0	-2.7/+2.0	- - -	-5.4/+5.0
Nelson Cruz	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	+3.8/+1.0	+3.8/+1.0
Chris Davis	+3.9/+3.0	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	+3.9/+3.0
Josh Hamilton	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	+2.9/+0.0	- - -	+2.9/+0.0
Andruw Jones	+0.5/+1.0	- - -	- - -	- - -	+1.1/+2.0	- - -	-0.4/+0.0	+1.2/+3.0
Ian Kinsler	- - -	+5.4/+9.0	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	+5.4/+9.0
David Murphy	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	+3.6/+0.0	+0.0/+0.0	+0.3/+0.0	+3.9/+0.0
Omar Vizquel	- - -	- - -	+0.7/+1.0	+1.6/+2.0	- - -	- - -	- - -	+2.3/+3.0
Michael Young	- - -	- - -	-7.0/-10.0	- - -	- - -	- - -	- - -	-7.0/-10.0
Total	+4.5/+4.0	+5.4/+9.0	-6.3/-9.0	+5.8/+7.0	+2.0/+5.0	+0.2/+2.0	+3.7/+1.0	+15.3/+19.0

Extrapolating UZR's more precise calculation of 15.3 defensive runs saved above average through the Rangers' final 125 games results in an estimated 65 to 70 defensive runs being saved over the entirety of the 2009 regular season (equating to a 115- to 120-run improvement over 2008, even greater than the potential 100-run improvement that Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus suggested last Thursday); of course, arriving at such an inference requires one to extrapolate data compiled over less than one-quarter of the regular season and make the assumption that no injuries or transactions or defensive slumps would ensue (in other words, that everything would remain exactly the same), so there's limited predictive value here.

Momentarily setting that caveat aside does permit us to make a few key observations, however: Michael Young's continued defensive shortcomings on balls hit to his left -- on which he has made six plays below average in 2009, according to plus/minus -- have been quite deleterious to his overall defensive value and a major contributing factor in his league-worst statistical range at third base, a deficiency which one would logically expect to improve as Young further progresses in the acclimation process and acquires a greater degree of familiarity with his position. The jury remains out on that front.

Superb up-the-middle defense beginning with the 25-and-under backstop brigade, extending to the double-play tandem of Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler -- both of whom are converting their immeasurable defensive talents into upward movement in the standings -- and culminating with a surprisingly steady Josh Hamilton in center field has added no fewer than 10 runs to the Rangers' plus-30 mark in the run differential department (which is, coincidentally, on pace to reach a plus-131 by season's end, a new franchise record if it were to actually happen), a tremendous accomplishment that might actually be repeatable through the miracle of service time given that none of the aforementioned players will be eligible for free agency before the conclusion of the 2012 season.

[Incidentally, it was Hamilton's leaping seventh-inning catch -- one which entailed a head-on collision with the right-center field wall and has rendered his status day-to-day after he sustained a slightly strained right groin muscle on the play -- that preserved a 0-0 tie on Sunday afternoon and added .054 to the Rangers' win probability during their sweep-clinching victory over the Angels, the video of which has been embedded below for your baseball edification:]

[Direct link available here.]

One final revelation surfaces through this examination of the Rangers' astounding early-season supremacy in the field: Texas is presently on pace to allow just 784 runs in 2009, a 183-run deviation from the 967 runs allowed in 2008 that would represent the largest single-season improvement on the run prevention front in franchise history (barely edging out the 175-run improvement from 2003 to 2004). If the Rangers' defense were to actually improve by 115 to 120 runs, approximately two-thirds of that 183-run improvement would be explained by defense -- not pitching, but defense and defense alone.

Baseball: the fielding man's game.

Comments

[rob m]

I have a hard time believing those numbers for MY at 3B. Maybe I am just used to seeing such terrible play at 3B that MY seems like a gold-glover over there.

[jdb]

yawwwwnnn--who cares bout your meaningless stats--get over yourself. learn to just enjoy the game.

[Mike E]

I think alot of that for MY was in the first couple of weeks of the season, before he made the adjustment to stay a little more back on the balls.

[Spanky]

I am not surprised that MY is having trouble at 3b. He couldn't go to his left when he played SS. I love his offense and can live with his mediocre play at 3b.

Elvis Andrus is everything he was advertised to be. Thanks, ATL.

[Texrollie]

It certainly appears MY is improving. We've seen him go to his left at least twice in the last week, actually cutting in front of Andrus on one and Omar on the other, to make the play. It sure appears that MY can do very little to satisfy his detractors.

[Jeremy H.]

Good stuff, Joey, but I already am aware of most of their numbers on the defensive side.

jdb, If you don't like it, GTFO and don't post comments that contribute nothing to the discussion.

Thirdly, Michael's UZR and +/- numbers for his career have always been terrible, even last year when he undeservedly won the Gold Glove. I don't expect them to improve much, although he is not a defensive liability and has made up whatever blunders he's made on the field this year with his bat.

[I'm With Incaviglia]

Great stuff...
I was shocked to see that MY is hitting .111/.200/.111 with RISP...apparently his bat is not really making up for his defense other than a couple of late inning hits.

[Jeremy H.]

That could be a just SSS, or it could be a problem. I'd rather Michael find his way on base and let the players behind him get him in.

[Pabloesque]

"approximately two-thirds of that 183-run improvement would be explained by defense -- not pitching, but defense and defense alone."

Granted defense has played a HUGE role in this turnaround... but I'm not sure 2/3rds of it can be attributed only to defense... which is what I believe you're saying.