On Pitching Futility And The Plan
Right-hander Brandon McCarthy (pictured) allowed four earned runs in just five innings in Baltimore on Sunday afternoon.Ed Rapuano and Joe West should absolutely be held accountable for what most would characterize as a questionably umpired set of weekend skirmishes in Baltimore (the second of which saw Brandon McCarthy robbed of several irrefutable strikes, inflicting unnecessary damage upon both his stamina and his pitch count), but that injustice doesn't entirely absolve the 25-year-old right-hander from blame for an inadequate Sunday afternoon performance in which he brandished a flat, elevated heater and secondary pitches that lacked consistency.
Eventuating from McCarthy's fifth-inning struggles and the ill-timed sixth-inning manifestation of sinkerballer Jason Jennings's vulnerabilities was a maddening 8-5 defeat that sent the Texas Rangers' fielding-independent ERA spiralling to a league-worst 6.10 -- just a smidgen off their actual team ERA of 6.09 compiled over the regular season's first three weeks, a figure derived in part from bad luck but mostly from all-around ineffectiveness.
Moreover, the "first-glance statistical reference" of general manager Jon Daniels with respect to an individual pitcher is reportedly his strikeouts-to-walks ratio, and presuming that indicator doesn't become less influential on a team level, the Rangers' utterly horrendous 1.29 mark in that department as of Monday morning is certain to evoke more alterations to the pitching staff if marked improvement is not quickly forthcoming.
There's obviously more variability in the data by virtue of the regular season being just three weeks old (as well as no Rangers starter having made more than four starts), and it's not impossible that a sharp turnaround on the pitching front is imminent (though it's not exactly likely, either), but what all of this should underscore is the amount of patience -- both inside and outside of the organization -- that will be necessary to see the transformation of this pitching staff through to the end.
Pitching coach Mike Maddux squandered no time in impressing the importance of throwing strikes and averting free passes upon his pupils, but emphasis is not tantamount to execution, and both the positive mid-March vibes emanating from Surprise, Arizona and the apparent "comfort zone" that some Rangers hurlers had settled into have dissipated. Texas has actually produced a lower strike percentage (59.6 percent) than any other American League team thus far in 2009, which runs counterintuitive to Maddux's philosophy and is also indicative of the reality that talent will always trump instruction, regardless of the quality of the latter. Maddux is a good coach, but the one thing he is not is a miracle-worker, and whenever silly remarks in the vein of "He can fix [insert mediocre pitcher here]!" are made I feel it necessary to play the role of contrarian.
What exactly is my point? I'm not entirely sure; however, what I do know is that this organization is in a rather precarious position right now, with the major league squad feigning competitiveness in a division that appears ripe for the taking and the existing need to balance winning against development. There's something about being caught between those two extremes that generates uneasiness on my part (uneasiness which I cannot readily explain), and the pitching ineptitude -- which presumably does not sit well with those at the top of the organizational food chain -- adds the sort of volatility that can precipitate ill-advised decisions from the people in charge.
The notion of "staying the course" is a sound and logical one, but inaction is not the logical human response to adversity, and my principal fear is that the depletion of patience underlying the Rangers' push for major league supremacy will be hastened by another prolonged stint of league-worst pitching.
Two games under .500 never felt so strange.
23 Comments | in Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (23)
I think the uneasiness stems from the identity crisis the team presently has. If we were honest with ourselves, we'd have to admit that we're in the middle of a massive rebuilding project, a plan that won't be complete until our pitching staff is completely overhauled with our young guys or people we will eventually get in trades involving our young guys. Even though the offense is probably ready to compete right now, despite all the strikeouts, it can potentially get better with the additions of Borbon, Beltre and Smoak in the near future. But we won't win without pitching.
The problem is that management, worried about gate totals, has refused to admit that we're rebuilding, and the fact that the AL West is probably the weakest it's been in 3 or 4 years makes every team - even the Mariners - believe they can actually compete for the division this year. The other problem is that the team has relied on some substandard talent in recent years, and so it's going to be a rough process in the next couple of years to cull the riff raff and replace them with young guys - guys who probably aren't going to dominate right away.
I think it's just growing pains. It does make for some frustrating viewing, as the team seem really unstable - looking amazing some nights and god-awful others.
I think when the Rangers committed to this rebuilding plan a lot of fans thought it would be a 3 or 4 year done deal. Wala. A championship team. How about 5 or 6 or 7? In the mean time we're stuck in the middle of no mans land. To old for toys, to young for a car.
John brings up a good question - how long DOES it take to rebuild to the level where you can compete consistently for a good 5 years in a row? I wonder if the normal number given - 3 years - is a result of what has happened with some of the NL teams like Florida, Arizona, and Colorado. I'm not sure the models used in each of those places corresponds to the Rangers' situation, and I also have to wonder whether the Colorado WS appearance wasn't more of a fluke rather than a sign that the team was "rebuilt."
I do think that despite the frustration from uneven play we will probably have to deal with all season long, it could be a lot worse. If it does take between 4-6 years to rebuild a team from nothing, God help the Houston Astros, who have nothing in their farm system, a bunch of overpaid aging superstars, and a terrible economy to deal with. They're going to be bad for a long time. All of those who complain about Hicks and JD should remember that. They have at least set the team up for a bright future in a time where the economic factors are hard to predict.
I found it interesting that this was just brought up about Texas having problems with pitching. I did a quick study at Beyond the Boxscore and found that there has been some complaints of the design of the pitching mound at Texas. It has led to pitchers throwing ~1.5 mph less at Texas compared to when they don't throw at Texas. I wonder that since Texas pitchers deal with this unique mound more often, it messes with their mechanics when they go on the road.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/4/27/855477/pitching-mound-construction
Great post, Joey, and sums up how I feel. I often feel like I'd rather the Rangers lose more often to take away the temptation to reach too early in the contention curve.
I like the bullpen chart on the sidebar. What do the red squares signify?
The red squares signify multiple innings pitched.
Look guys, as long as this division continues to suck we need to try to win. We don't need to roll over just yet, it's frustrating that we haven't been able to string some wins together, yes, but it's the first month of the season. There is still time for it to go different ways for every team in the league.
We do need to start the rotation of getting the younger players in and the older players out. If we have to push our contention year back to 2010, I'm going to shoot myself.
I meant to say push our contention year back to 2011.
Recent mediocre pitching, both in the majors and, most importantly, with Feliz, Main, Beavan in minors, reconfirms my long held opinion that the Rangers organization, for whatever reason, cannot develop major league quality pitching.
Texrollie: When you think of guys like Galarraga, who was the biggest spare in the minors, and even Danks, who never acted like an ace, much less a #2 guy in the minors - and you see them perform like they are in the big leagues for other teams, it does make you wonder. Those are just two guys - I bet we could come up with an impressive list if we thought about it.
So Joey what then are you suggesting here? Are you riding the fence on staying the course vs. attempting to trade for pitching talent? Or using free agency as a resource to get better in the pitching dept?
It's a difficult thing and I'm with you, I feel weird about this team right now. They flash the offensive potential to do big things.
When everything is rolling along, we may have 6-7 guys with 25-30 HR potential...
However, we go back to the age old problem of pitching in Arlington. Apart from a Millwood type of guy, most pitchers aren't going to want to spend their prime years pitching in this band box. Knowing all to well that by the time they're pitching for their 2nd big contract, they will have ERAs in the 5.00 range, at best.
So, that leaves us with retreads on the back side of their careers... therefore, free agency is not the way to go...
How about trades? Well, apart from a workhorse like Halladay and maybe a few others, what team is going to relinquish their #1 or #2 guy for prospects? Unless of course they feel signability will be an issue, you're not going to find many teams willing to trade away top pitching talent. Pitchers, like NFL QBs, are hard to come by... well, good one's anyway.
So that leaves us with home grown talent. Stock piling draft picks, trading for high upside prospects, etc... with the hope and prayer that maybe a few will pan out.
By my count, we have roughly 15-20 pitching prospects that could turn out to be good MLB pitchers. Of those 15-20, maybe 3-5 could be considered a #1 or #2... the rest ranging from #3 to #5 starters. If we work under the assumption that 70% of these pitchers are going to "flame out" and never be MLB contributors, this leaves us with approx. 4 - 6 pitchers to fill out the rotation, hopefully for the next several years. Of those 4-6 pitchers odds are 1 or 2 may become an ace... leaving the others to fill the 3-5 spots in the rotation.
My point here is I believe JD is doing the right thing by stock piling pitching prospects.
As I watched the NFL draft this weekend, witnessing JJ and co. rebuild their Special Teams unit (yuck!), I kept hoping that with their 12 picks, 3 or 4 would be Safetys, 3-4 would OLinemen, and 3-4 would be WRs... sort of a saturation draft, hoping that of those 3-4 guys you drafted for 1 position, 1 may eventually become a good NFL player... maybe even a star. It obviously never happened...
I hold out hope for our beloved Rangers and their philosphy of saturating their farm system with high upside pitchers... hoping/praying we get a legit MLB rotation out of it... but if we don't see it happen in the next two or three years (tops), it's time to once again rethink this strategy and odds are it will be with a different GM, manager, and maybe a whole different roster!
Stockpiling young pitching is definitely the way to go - IF you are successful at developing that young pitching to get to the bigs. The Rangers haven't done too well in that area. JDolla$, how about Danks, Doug Davis, Ryan Dempster, Duchscherer, Armando Gallaraga, Dan Kolb, Ron Mahay, Rob Nenn, Tanyon Sturtz, Edison Volquez and Chris Young. And this is not including the young pitchers that the Rangers hurt, therefore never making it to their potential. Colby Lewis, Todd Van Poppel. Jeff Zimmerman
Todd Van Poppel seems a bad choice for that list as he was an A's product that was rushed, not a Rangers product.
Feel your pain Joey. I keep trying to convince myself this division is ripe for the taking, but then reality sets in. This team is exactly the same year after year after year. Absolutely terrible pitching, and home run or bust hitting. Hey, I love stats just as much as the next baseball nut, but only two of them mean much to me when it come to the Rangers: Runs Scored & Runs Alllowed. Unfortunately when you give up more than you can score, you lose!
I'm sure its silly, but losing Rob Nen still hurts to this day.
A highly touted pitcher who couldnt make it to the majors due to injury, and was traded as a rookie in 1993 due to running out of options.
I realize why I want Diamond brought up soo much right now.....
Red:
Couldn't agree more. Besides I'd still like a little tease of the last remaining "DVD Trio"
Exactly Red! Then he, as Kolb, went to another organization and became an all star. Now we have Diamond and Hurley. A major cause of head banging around these parts
Maybe reaching on Tanyon Sturtze and Van Poppel but your point is well taken.
Help me think back to the Ranger teams of the mid to late 90's... didn't Helling win 20+ games one year? Didn't John Burkett win 17 or 18 games? How about Juan Cruz... didn't he win 15 or 16 and then walk as a FA (then blow out his arm)?
Who else was on the team back then; Kevin Brown, Kenny Rogers, Bobby Witt, NOLAN RYAN (retired in 93, correct?)...
These guys showed it's not impossible to pitch in Arlington... but this organization is of a different mind set. They feel snake bitten... almost cursed.
If you think you will fail, odds are you will.
The Rangers desperately need a grinder... like a Roy Halladay... and I've been calling for him for a long time and realize it's probably never going to happen. It's a tall order to fill, I know... but until we have that 1 guy that throws 230 IP and wins more than he loses; we will be stuck in the same situation.
We need THAT guy who will take the ball every 5th day and leave everything he has on the mound. I know it's cliche but it's the truth.
I'm not sure Nolan can emphasize this enough from his seat in the stands. More than ever (with all the youth) they need someone to lead by example.
Think about Rick Heiling; very average pitcher (VERY average) but he took the ball and grinded out 7+ innings every night. We don't have anyone like that now. Millwood could've been that guy but he's hurt too often and he's inconsistent. And he doesn't come across as the type of guy that puts the team first.
Maybe those guys aren't around anymore...
Perhaps Beaven, Main, Perez, Boscan, Holland, Feliz, etc... can be THAT guy... you never know. Maybe Beaven is the one. Kind of a Kevin Brown, a-hole type guy that won't be intimidated by pitching in the heat/wind. We need talent, yes... but we also need attitude.
If he had better self control and was more consistent, I would think Padilla might fill that role. I would HATE to stand in the batter's box opposite Padilla. He's a nasty S.O.B.
If the Blue Jays are listening to offers for Holladay, pull the trigger and make it happen... even if it costs us Holland or Feliz and Smoak, etc... stop looking at what COULD happen and use some of the tools you've developed to MAKE it happen. Shi$ or get off the pot.
And If Halladay isnt' the answer, then then how about Oswalt (not at the price I listed for Halladay), or one of the kids on the Marlins, Pirates, Giants, etc... and if it costs us Smoak or Davis, then so be it. The Rangers will always find good position players... so don't be afraid to trade Teagarden for fear of him turning into an All Star... trade him to get BETTER! Nobody (except Hamilton because I have a man crush on him) should be untouchable right now.
Pitching HAS to be the #1 priority. They've proven over and over and over that offense alone won't get it done... when will they learn?
I'm off my soap box... (what is a soap box anyway? Did they used to sell soap by the freaking box?)
Yes sopa was sold in boxes. After use the box was (i'm guessing) resold (like glass soda bottles) or reused, like a soap box race car.
They were sturdy enough to stand on, so people would stand on the to be seen and talk to a crowd for many different reasons.
http://www.phrases.org.uk/bulletin_board/5/messages/1302.html
Just a guess but Halladay may be a pipe dream. The building process is going to be a waiting game since most of the young pitching prospects are at A ball. Kiker,Feliz and Holland could contribute next year but the other kids are two years or more away. A couple of them, Beaven and Main, are not doing to well at Bakersfield and therein lies another problem. Got to find out who has the talent before you start trading them. Can't afford any more Danks and Gallaraga black eyes.
Apologies for not getting back to you all -- Monday was a very strange day, and this was a very strange article, what with me incoherently rambling at times in what I would have to consider one of the stranger pieces I've ever written. I'm honestly surprised you lot received it so well -- I finished this up at something like 5:30 a.m. and was literally in another dimension by that point, but perhaps that was necessary to write this sort of odd stream-of-consciousness type thing.
T Ball: That chart on the right is a new feature I'm going to try and polish up, but basically the yellow row is the current day and you work backwards from there to see who has pitched most recently. X's denote a game in which the pitcher actually appeared in, while red boxes denote 30 or more pitches thrown in a given appearance.
There are some other features I want to implement, and I would say there's a very good chance that BBTIA will be introducing some new writing talent in the very near future, with a few names that the LSB lot in particular will be quite familiar with. Stay tuned for an announcement on that front.
Woot! Fresh blood......
If he's from LSB, atleast we know he'll (she'll) have thick skin.
From what I understand, Oswalt has announced he will retire after this current contract. That makes him virtually untradeable. I like Halladay as well. I'm afraid we'd have to sell the farm for him. A name i love is Scott Kazmir. He's left handed and a winner. I think we have the chips to make it happen without having to mortgage our future. It is pretty obvious that either Davis or Smoak will be traded. I just as God that we please get more in that trade than we did for Adrian Gonzalez or Carlos Pena.
Kazmir would be nice... he could grrom Kiker, Harrison... all the leftys!