Tales Of An Easter Sunday Meltdown: Tigers Sweep Rangers
Left-hander C.J. Wilson yielded six runs (three earned) in one-third of an inning on Sunday afternoon.I admittedly find it a tad frightening that a professional baseball team is capable of wielding such influence over my day-to-day outlook and kindling introspective moments wherein I contemplate whether this endeavor is really worth it at the end of the day, and whether life might be just a bit less taxing if I became just a bit more emotionally detached from the Texas Rangers.
Easter Sunday shouldn't have been one of those days. But it was.
THE GOOD
Gorgeous two-run jacks courtesy of center fielder Josh Hamilton and second baseman Ian Kinsler supplied all of the run support that veteran right-hander Kevin Millwood required en route to what should have been -- but tragically wasn't -- a second consecutive victory; fortunately, the unpleasantness that would transpire in the bottom of the eighth inning couldn't invalidate a performance that ranked among the best the Rangers have ever managed to extract from their renascent 34-year-old workhorse:
[Millwood's final pitching line on Sunday afternoon: 7 IP (112 pitches), 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K.]
A little context is required to make complete sense out of the above Pitch f/x-derived graph. First, understand that "movement" is defined as how many inches a given pitch moved based on spin alone; neither trajectory nor arm angle impact this measurement (though environmental factors such as weather and altitude can, and do), and gravity is completely removed from the calculation. Second, realize that a positive integer on the vertical movement side doesn't equate to a pitch literally rising; in the case of one of the 56 four-seam heaters that Millwood hurled on Sunday afternoon, the pitch arrived at home plate approximately 10 inches higher than a "theoretical pitch without spin" would have. Third, this view is from the perspective of the catcher; plus-five inches on the horizontal axis equates to a pitch moving away from a right-handed batter.
The neural network Pitch f/x utilizes in order to identify various pitch types is not foolproof by any stretch of the imagination, but Millwood was very clearly reliant on his three fastball variants, the slider and the curveball -- the final of which was in peak form on Sunday afternoon, displaying its standard two-plane movement but appearing even sharper than usual and generating three swinging strikeouts during the fourth and fifth innings. He routinely worked ahead in the count after the bottom of the second inning, showcasing top-notch command that enabled his relentless assault on a bewildered Tigers lineup and wasn't fully illustrated by his 62.5 percent strike rate.
One anonymous major league executive challenged Millwood -- through ESPN.com's Jayson Stark -- to replicate his stunning Opening Day performance "five days out, 10 days out [and] 15 days out" and reveal whether the Rangers' indisputable No. 1 starter can sustain this clip of excellence. I don't have the answer to that question (and reluctantly acknowledge that Millwood looked quite good through his first two starts of the 2008 season as well), but I can surmise that if what he's doing right now isn't an April mirage, Texas is going to exhibit extreme reluctance to part ways at mid-season with the first starting pitcher to legitimately assert himself as an ace in Arlington since ... well, since Kenny Rogers.
THE BAD, THE WORSE AND THE AWFUL
One of my favorite little tools to play around with in the event of a dramatic come-from-behind win -- and, much more reluctantly, a dramatic late-game collapse -- is Win Probability, a statistic which first garnered the bulk of its attention through the phenomenon that is FanGraphs and has since been embraced by slightly more mainstream entities in the vein of Baseball Reference.
Not surprisingly, Win Probability -- which measures the average team's probability of winning a game at a particular point, taking into account score, inning, number of outs, base situation and pitch -- was not remotely kind to Texas on Sunday afternoon:
Of the many things that have absolutely irked me beyond belief with respect to Texas Rangers baseball over the years, perhaps nothing has infuriated me more than the irresponsible squandering of brilliant starting pitching by horrendous relief work. The velocity was clearly there for southpaw C.J. Wilson from the outset of his disastrous eighth-inning appearance, and it can probably be argued that he deserved a somewhat better fate than what he received (shortstop Elvis Andrus committed a crucial fielding gaffe that should have ensured at least one out), but the fact that he yielded only two legitimately hard-hit balls during the frame does not absolve him from what appeared to be questionable pitch selection and spotty command, and those key deficiencies singlehandedly spoiled what should have been a series-salvaging win.
Fireballing right-hander Warner Madrigal never should have been thrust into such a difficult situation (runners on second and third base with just one out in a knotted 4-4 game, summoned after Wilson had effectively already blown the game), and the fact that manager Ron Washington was forced to lean on a pitcher with less than 150 professional innings to his credit in such a high-leverage situation speaks volumes about the intolerable composition of this bullpen. This relief corps may well comprise talent, but the gap between talent and effectiveness is about as large as the mile of open terrain General Pickett infamously ordered his Confederate troops to cross at the climax of the Battle of Gettsyburg (with disastrous consequences), and right now this bullpen is as ineffective and undependable as any in baseball.
A quibble can perhaps be raised with Washington's decision to withhold closer Frank Francisco from that eighth inning even after it had become abundantly clear that managerial inaction would probably mean there wouldn't be a game to save. This line of thought stems from the Bill James philosophy that teams should employ their best relievers at critical junctures in the seventh and/or eighth innings rather than reserving their services for ninth-inning leads that might never materialize, and while it's certainly possible that Francisco was incapable of tossing multiple innings, one wonders if the outcome of the game might have been altered by utilizing Francisco before Wilson's meltdown could reach completion and dealing with the ninth-inning dilemma later -- not that a ninth-inning loss is any more palatable than an eighth-inning loss, mind you.
Washington emphasized after the nightmarish conclusion that Wilson would not be displaced from a setup role while affirming his trust in both Wilson and Madrigal, but "trust" is admittedly not a word I have used in association with C.J. Wilson for a long, long time, and the palpable unease he imparts to the fan base -- and, presumably, to some front-office executives -- each time he completes his trot from the bullpen to the pitcher's mound will ultimately hasten his departure from Texas if his performance doesn't soon reach the threshold of acceptability.
This team is running out of excuses.
Quick Hits: The Rangers have now dropped eight consecutive games in Detroit, matching their eight-game streak of futility in Boston's Fenway Park; Texas returns to Comerica Park for a three-game series beginning May 19th ... First baseman Chris Davis (1-for-22 this season) is presently combating major timing issues relating to late swings on fastballs, a weak spot which American League pitchers are attacking ... The Rangers' Opening Day 2009 payroll of $68,178,798 deviated minus-0.09 percent from the Opening Day 2008 payroll of $68,239,551.
18 Comments | in Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (18)
Because this is all too depressing, I'm going to skip the baseball talk and just point out that this blog entry reminds me of a great Flight of the Conchords song from season 2:
"Friends sing together,
La la la la
Friends do things together,
La la la la
Friends laugh together,
Ha ha ha ha
Friends make graphs together,
La la la la"
Here's the link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVoCJJFuS60
"Elvis Andrus committed a crucial fielding gaffe"
Joey, you make it sound like Elvis booted a routine GB. Far from it. Granderson hit a loopy line drive of the end of his bat that Elvis tried to catch on the fly. Maybe he should have tried to play it on a hop. A hop that it self would have not been routine due to the spin on the ball. A hop that does not guarantee an out.
Fortunately most (if not all) are blaming CJ for the meltdown yesterday. I think we saw the best from him back in 2007. Right now there just are not any better options for the Rangers.
The Rangers will say all the right things, like it's just one game, a Loss is a loss and we will move on but let me suggest they will not recover easily from this loss. Watching the garbage CJ threw up and the terrible play Elvis made was sickening. The worst part was the incompetency of the manager to recognize it and do virtually nothing about it. I'm sorry he did, he brought in Madrigal. If the guy doesn't have it he doesn't have it.
Just a quick observation about the excitement of Michael Young at third base, he shouldn't be there.
His reactionary time is killing the Rangers and if anybody has read the unbiased print on MY you may now begin to understand he doesn't have the quickness to play the infield. The speculation as to what to do now is growing. The other teams in the AL will exploit this issue. Give me an average Hank Blalock arm and we'll be okay. Last but not least, Chris Davis's should try to keep his shoulder's a little more level when swinging the bat. He's great at swinging below the ball. Now trying swinging to the ball.
"The worst part was the incompetency of the manager to recognize it and do virtually nothing about it"
How on earth can you possibly blame RW for yesterday? What exactly was he supposed to do? Who would you have brought in rather than CJ or Madrigal? And how would the manager have prevented Elvis from making an error?
Please explain.
I'd like to make this observation: Fans in DFW have treated Ron Washington like shit from day 1. He never gets any credit for his part in making this group of spares into a half-way competitive team the past 2 seasons, and when anything goes awry, he is always, always the one to receive the lion's share of the blame. CJ Wilson is the 8th inning guy because he had the best spring, he has the most experience, and he has the best stuff. 10 out of 10 managers would have used him in that spot considering the alternatives. No one is going to trot Feldman or Rupe or Guardado out there in the 8th inning. So when CJ melts down, why is that Washington's fault? When are the players going to be held responsible for poor control, lack of command, and risky pitches?
I for one am sick of it. Part of me would like to see Wash just resign and walk away, and let someone else come in here and try to win with this group of players. If you read this blog, RW, know that at least one person appreciates your effort, and recognizes you as a good baseball guy, and a class person. Many of the fans around here could stand to learn a thing or two from you in that latter category.
JDalla$: He could have put in Frankie instead of Madrigal.
Burn Franky for 2 innings on a regular basis = Benoit.
Furthermore, when Franky becomes unavailable because of 2 innings saves, who closes then?
Look, CJ gets paid a lot of money to get people out. All he had to do was get 3 outs. To pin his inability to do so on Washington is incredible and very very sad.
If Wash would have left Millwood in and he pulls a muscle because he's tired - I guess fans would be lining up to sing Washington's praises, right? Wrong. Everyone would be moaning about how you don't mess with your only good starting pitcher in the first week of the season. If Wash would have brought Jennings in to face their 8th inning batters - and he got shelled - what do you think fans would say then? "Why the F didn't that idiot put in our only good reliever, CJ!?!?!?"
So like I said, Wash is in a no win situation. He will be fired, and some other guy will get to try to figure this one out.
Frankie hasn't pitched since last Wed. so putting him in to get a 5 out save shouldn't be a big deal. Games are not always decided in the 9th inning. This one was decided in the 8th with the Rangers best reliever sitting inthe bullpen. That is the only problem I have with RW's decisions yesterday.
JDolla$, that is part of being a major league manager and Wash understands that. And, thankfully, he doesn't make managerial decisions based on what reactions the fans would have anyway. That is the last of his worries. The flaw in this bullpen is Guardado should be unemployed, CJ should have his position, Frankie should be in the 8th inning and we need a closer. IMO
Not sure whether Michael Kirkman was going to come up, but did you all hear any eyewitness reports on that pitching line? Quite a beaut...
I guess so. I just feel for the guy. He has the most worthless bullpen in the major leagues today. I guess the next step will be to bring up Eyre, Nippert and Turnbow to see what they can do. Good luck with that. Then I guess they can always bring up the next wave of kids - Moscoso, Hunter, Diamond, Strop, etc. Of course Holland and Feliz will be up eventually this year, but one has to wonder whether they will be needed to start at that point, after the heat decimates whatever isn't injured at that point.
I think Diamond will get the call to try to settle down the 8th inning. Turnbow can't find the plate with a GPS satellite and Nippert isn't any better. Wilson, seriously, needs to decide if he wants to be a major league pitcher or a rock star. I think that he things he is better than he actually is. He needs to shelve the cockiness until people are comparing him to Carlton. Just shut up and pitch. Nellie Cruz had an epiphany last year. Maybe this year it is Wilson's turn.
Great work on the pitch f/x stuff
Hightower: I was told Kirkman sat comfortably at 91 mph for most of the night and dialed it up to 92 on occasion. His fastball was in the mid 80s last season. His slider was also thrown for strikes. He was rather impressive last night.
Elvis made an error and MY can't find his glove let alone spot a ball hit hard to him. Boys, it's going to be a long summer. Strap on the seatbelt cause it's going to get upgly. The learning curve for MY will be tough. So far Elvis has 2 errors and counting. By the way, the reason RW was hired was because of his defensive skills. OV walks into camp this year and recognizes the Rangers infielders absolutely suck. On paper MY is a Gold Glover because he picks up the ones he can reach. Good lord he's bad.
And oh yeah, that was a great managerial decision to leave the .048 hitter in the game to end the game.Davis can't hit. I do believe there were a couple bats on the bench that could have stepped up, Jones, Teagarden, OV and possibly Byrd.
I have been a diehard fan of the Rangers since I moved here in 1981. I even ushered at the stadium in 83. But a loss like yesterday makes everyone regret the decision to follow this team. It's pathetic that a pitcher, who has sat on his butt watching a masterpiece, doesn't come in and close it out just based on determination. CJ sucked yesterday and as a manager you have to recognize it immediately and not when the fricking game is tied. Mario Rivera has closed in the 8th and 9th. That's what a closer does. He pitches to the need of the team. Maybe this team will figure things out but until they do I for one will keep pointing at the blisters.
Tinup: Your post scares me on several levels.
I suppose I agree with tinup for the most part, although I don't think what Davis did last season was a mirage. He *can* hit. Regarding the other stuff, the offense will probably be okay on most days, even if they don't hit as well on the road. There were a couple of long ones yesterday that would have been out in Arlington, and if so - we probably would all be giving CJ a break in a 7-6 game, or something like that. [Someone needs to look up how many of Texas' wins last season they scored 7 or more runs - I bet it's a lot].
The defense? Meh. Elvis will at least get to some balls that MY won't, and Kinsler has great range at 2B. That alone should help.
The real problem is pitching, and specifically the bullpen. This team will need an infusion of talent at some point this season, or they are absolutely dead meat.
thats some worthless bullshit stats.