Tuesday Morning Rangers Notes: Random Scattershooting
Joey Matschulat
Frank Catalanotto (pictured) could be a candidate for a late-March release.Diamond ramblings from the early-morning fringe:
● In a follow-up to yesterday's protracted discussion of Brandon McCarthy's surprising transition from the curveball to the slider, Richard Durrett of the Dallas Morning News has answered the widespread calls for more information by touching base with the 25-year-old right-hander:
My curveball was becoming somewhat unreliable. I couldn't get it over early in the count and if I threw it late in the count, hitters didn't swing at it because they knew it wasn't a strike. Then that made me a two-pitch pitcher and if my change-up wasn't on, I was in trouble. I'm getting used to going black-to-black (each side of the plate) and moving it.
[...] I need a breaking pitch I can throw for strikes early in the count and I can make it look like a fastball. I can throw it for strikes, miss some barrels and get some ground balls. It's getting that every pitch consistency with it that's the key. I have to learn what it's supposed to feel like and what I can do.
● MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan predicts that the Texas Rangers will cut bait with presumptive 25th man Frank Catalanotto at the end of spring training if they come up short in their quest to trade him for something -- heck, anything! -- of value, which merits a callback to November 20th:
With his disconcerting transformation from a quality walks-n'-doubles machine into a well-paid professional benchwarmer almost complete, Catalanotto's unfriendly contract -- which pays him a guaranteed $4 million in 2009, and also includes a $5 million option for 2010 with a $2 million buyout -- is a curse twice over; not only have the Rangers predictably proven incapable of finding a suitor willing to assume the considerable remaining balance on their rapidly declining player's contract (and willing to give up something of tangible value, as well as a roster spot, for that privilege), but there also appears to be some reluctance on the part of the Rangers to admit that he's a sunk cost and simply cut him loose.
I think it's become abundantly clear by this point that there are no suitors for Catalanotto and that there is no market for a player like Catalanotto, whose only real asset is a walk rate that has fallen from 10.6 percent to 7.8 percent to 7.5 percent over the last three seasons -- and then you look up and realize that the league-average unintentional walk rate for the American League in 2008 was 8.6 percent, so not even that is really an asset. He possesses zero defensive value, little power and no base-swiping ability, and as likeable and classy as Catalanotto is (and as much as I wish him well in his post-Texas baseball endeavors), he's not any more tradeable today than he was four months ago.
If there was even a marginal C-grade prospect available in return for a reduced-price Catalanotto, the Rangers probably would have already jumped on it.
● Baseball Prospectus's latest full-length Team Health Report is centered on a Rangers roster littered with yellow- and red-lighted players (indeed, only three garnered green-light ratings: Elvis Andrus, David Murphy, and Scott Feldman), and includes this rather interesting assessment of yellow-lighted second baseman Ian Kinsler:
Kinsler failed to pass the 130-game mark for the third straight year as he was forced to undergo season-ending hernia surgery in September. A stress fracture in his left foot ('07) and a dislocated thumb ('06) have also plagued him in recent seasons. Because of his size and defensive ability, Kinsler looks like a max-effort type of player who struggles with injuries as a result.
So why isn't he red? Well, Kinsler's injuries have mostly been instances of his being unlucky, and his ability to drive the ball suggest a player bigger than his size who just needs to make a few adjustments to stay healthy. The odd comp here is Jeff Bagwell, a player who had his own injury problems early on before he rose above them. The bet here is that Kinsler's career takes a similar path, that his injuries go away, and he entrenches himself as one of the game's best second basemen for the next several years.
One aspect of Kinsler's monster 2008 campaign that continues to utterly astound me is the fact that he somehow notched a top-five Win Value at second base even after missing one-quarter of the season. Chase Utley (8.0 wins above replacement level in 159 games), Dustin Pedroia (6.6 wins above replacement level in 157 games), Dan Uggla (5.0 wins above replacement level in 146 games) and Brian Roberts (4.5 wins above replacement level in 155 games) each logged at least 25 more games in the field than Kinsler did in 2008, yet Ian -- yes, mediocre defense and all -- was worth just three-tenths of one run less value-wise than Roberts.
Some degree of offensive regression is probably inevitable in 2009, but that can be mitigated or negated completely if Kinsler can simply refine his fielding to a point where it is league average, and Ian is equipped with the raw talent and baseball aptitude to make exactly that happen.
● Finally, Oakland's signing of free-agent shortstop Orlando Cabrera to a one-year, $4 million deal isn't what I would term a slam-dunk steal in the context of baseball's downtrodden economic climate, but it's a very good signing that makes an above-.500 team better and steepens the uphill slope that Texas will have scale in order to remain in post-season contention beyond the All-Star Break. Bobby Crosby miraculously appeared in 145 games for Oakland in 2008, but the popular assumption is that the oft-injured infielder won't accomplish that feat again in 2009, and his bat is poor enough that Cabrera -- a lifetime .274/.332/.399 hitter -- represents a fairly significant offensive upgrade.
The Athletics are at least one win better today from a pure talent standpoint than they were yesterday, and in a division where no team looks like a strong bet to win 90 games, every fraction of a win becomes exponentially more important.
Quick Hits: Right-hander Kris Benson and left-hander Eddie Guardado were both scratched from the Rangers' Monday afternoon skirmish against the Indians due to back soreness; both injuries are presumably minor ... Right-hander Brendan Donnelly (lower back spasms) hopes to throw a simulated game on Wednesday ... Left-hander Kason Gabbard is scheduled to throw a simulated game on Wednesday.
Reader Comments (3)
So question for anybody:
So with Cat likely cut and if Andruw Jones doesn't make the team (which I've stated from the beginning)... will the Rangers then try to keep Byrd and go with the OF of Cruz, Byrd, Hamilton, Murphy, Boggs? or do they try to deal Byrd while he still has value (based off his current injury and lack of apparent playing time if they opt to start Murphy) and promote Golson or Borbon and just hope they aren't too overmatched?
I understand what people are saying about Byrd in that his trade value will only diminish, but you're going to at best get a Max Ramirez type guy for him. Now while that sounds good, I don't think anyone expected Ramirez to hit even THIS good or be at least this passable behind the plate. Obviously we're past this point (I think?), but unless you're dealing Byrd as part of a bigger package (like Byrd + Salty for Buccholz before the Red Sox signed Baldelli) then adding yet another C prospect to an already stacked system doesn't personally make much sense to me. As was asked in a previous article, I also wonder what Byrd would have to do to get Type B status for next season? There's no reason a 4th OFer can't easily rack up 500+ ABs with the Rangers with concerns to Hamilton's health, Murphy's need to platoon, and Cruz's possible (likely?) regression.
I'd then keep Boggs up to be a late inning defensive replacement or pinch runner as my 5th OFer and allow more seasoning for Borbon and Golson. The last thing the Rangers need to do is put all their eggs in the basket for this 2010 World Series run and completely disregard this season. In my opinion, adding a rookie OFer to the roster to play heavy innings with all the other transition to the roster would just help create problems that I'm not sure that a full season at the big leagues would help solve. Look at it this way:
You take the top offense in the majors last season.
* you remove the player that led the AL in SLG vs. LHP (Bradley)
* you remove a utility infielder who had a pretty good season at the plate w/ .290/.365/.430 (Vazquez)
* at SS you call up a player who's hitting was already questioned at the minor league level (Andrus), OR plug in a 41 year old vet who hasn't been an offensive threat in 2 years (Vizquel)
* you move your All-Star middle infielder who's always had light power anyway and a declining OPS to the hot corner (Young)
* you hope that you can get some production from an oft injured corner infielder at DH (Blalock) or that you can plug in yet another rookie (Ramirez) who hasn't hit well yet at the major league level
* you hope that a guy who hit .285/.331/.549 in half a season can avoid a sophomore slump (Davis)
* and finally you hope that one of your two phenom catchers (Salty, Teagarden) can step up and one can capture and hold down the catching spot with almost not veteran assurance behind them (Melhuse?)
^ and all that in hopes that the defense/pitching improves enough to offset the inevitable offensive decline from last year's team. I just feel that they've tinkered with the lineup enough at this point and that they should let them play. If everyone plays reasonably close to expectations then we can look to call up Borbon or whoever, but for right now adding more youth to a roster already in incredible flux will only 'cause more problems over the course of the season with no guarantee that it will help improve the team for 2010 or beyond.
Thoughts?
Robert: Another option if Jones doesn't make it and they jettison Cat is to keep Duran as the 5th OFer. If Andrus starts out in AAA, then go with Vizquel at SS with Arias and Duran as back up IFers. Id Andrus starts out at SS then use Vizquel and Duran ar reserves.
I think the offense will be OK this year.
Blalock will not be Bradley but he might play more often and will be good enough. Salty will hit better this year. Young will not have two broken fingers. Davis will be in the lineup all year. Smoak is knocking on the door by the All-Star break. If Arias continues to show a reconstructed arm he might make Visquel expendable. I also think that Kinsler will play all year this year. The injury last year was a pretty freak one.
I'd break camp with
C1. Salty
DH. Blalock
1B. Davis
2B. Kinsler
3B. Young
SS. Andrus
LF. Cruz
CF. Byrd
RF. Hamilton
C2. Teagarden
OF. Murphy
OF. Boggs
INF. Arias
And a 12 man pitching staff
Batting VS. RHP
1. Byrd - R
2. Salty - S
3. Hamilton - L
4. Kinsler - R
5. Davis - L
6. Cruz - R
7. Blalock - L
8. Young - R
9. Andrus - R