The Morning After: Breaking Down The Ben Sheets Breakdown
Joey Matschulat
The Texas Rangers appear likely to move on from free-agent right-hander Ben Sheets (pictured). - Scott Ableman/Flickr.comThe Kübler-Ross model, first introduced in the 1969 book "On Death And Dying," explicitly described five distinct stages -- more popularly known today as the "Five Stages of Grief" -- through which people allegedly progress as they attempt to deal with grief and/or tragedy: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.
That most informed Texas Rangers fans had already obtained some inkling of the severity of free-agent right-hander Ben Sheets's elbow problems did not necessarily preclude the onset of stages three, four and five when it was finally disclosed on Thursday afternoon that a preliminary agreement between the Rangers and Sheets had been invalidated on the basis of his inability to pass a rigorous team-administered physical examination.
According to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, the deal -- which was reportedly reached in the middle of last week -- would have spanned two years, guaranteed Sheets in excess of $10 million, and boasted lucrative performance incentives based on his ability to stay healthy and supply Texas with consistent major league innings over the life of the contract. The completion of the deal ultimately hinged on the results of an MRI, however, which confirmed that a tear was still present in his right flexor tendon (elbow):
"The lines of communication remain open, but I'm not expecting a deal of any kind at this time," [general manager] Jon Daniels said. "We have strong interest in Ben under the right circumstances. But some things are out of your control."
[...] "We would have some interest in the right situation," Daniels said. "Some of that is going to revolve around Ben's medical situation, and that’s not for me to comment on."
Clearly, the overriding issue is that both Sheets and agent Casey Close incorrectly anticipated that the muscle tear would completely heal over the off-season with the prerequisite amount of rest and rehabilitation; that best-case scenario failed to transpire, however, and because Sheets declined the Brewers' offer of salary arbitration back on December 8th, the 30-year-old fireballer is now unemployed with an elbow that is effectively a ticking time bomb until his impending surgical procedure is completed.
It's an indubitably demoralizing turn of events for all parties involved: Milwaukee was comfortably positioned to recoup a pair of compensatory draft picks in exchange for Sheets's departure (via his Type A free agent status), Close was set to bank a healthy commission, and Texas was on the brink of acquiring a hurler who, in a healthy state, might well have been the club's best starting pitcher since Kevin Brown. Instead of a raucous celebration, however, every person -- including each member of the Rangers' understandably bewildered fan base -- with a stake in the ultimate outcome of these negotiations is now left to puzzle over the age-old question of "What in the hell just happened?"
● A short time after the Sheets story first broke on Thursday afternoon, I solicited the insight of Chris Neault, a licensed sports physical therapist, intermittent contributor to The Hardball Times' fantasy baseball coverage and friend of Baseball Time in Arlington; fortunately, Chris was kind enough to oblige:
The damage in [Sheets's] elbow is serious enough to warrant surgical repair, and it will require prolonged immobilization and vigorous rehabilitation, followed by strict adherence to a lengthy throwing/pitching program. The first three months is mostly range of motion [exercises] and light strengthening, followed by an increase in his strengthening program thereafter. I would not count on seeing him again in 2009, though if he did manage [to return], it would probably not be before August. Anything is possible I suppose.
I think he can become an effective major league pitcher again, as other pitchers have bounced back from this type of surgery (Andy Pettitte, Mike Hampton, Billy Wagner, etc.). Tom Glavine is also on the mend from a similar procedure. I think the bigger question is: how long can he be effective? We need to understand that this is a guy who has had a multitude of pitching shoulder/arm problems, and that the likelihood of breaking down again is probably going to be high -- not to mention that Jason Jennings had this surgery and hasn't done that well with it.
Briefly re-emphasizing something I noted on Thursday afternoon: the severity of the flexor tendon tear and the swiftness -- and success -- of his rehabilitation will ultimately dictate his timetable for recovery. Speculating just how long Sheets will be sidelined is a superficially intriguing exercise for fans and media pundits alike, but it's rendered completely immaterial the moment Dr. James Andrews indicates whether the procedure went as expected and provides the juicy details.
● According to the initial collaborative article published by MLB.com's Adam McCalvy and T.R. Sullivan, the Brewers dispatched assistant athletic trainer Dan Wright to Louisiana at one point to examine Sheets -- which did not result in the sounding of any warning sirens -- and felt comfortable enough with the earlier optimistic prognosis on Sheets's elbow to extend an offer of salary arbitration on December 2nd, which was unilaterally rejected less than a week later.
Did Close realize the extent of his client's injury at that point? Did Sheets realize it? Probably not. But given that Close recently equipped interested suitors with "updated medical information" that presumably attempted to paint a brighter medical picture and assuage the league-wide apprehension over the state of his elbow (in spite of the fact that one would logically assume that updated medical information would make it all the more evident that the flexor tendon tear was not healing as expected), one wonders if the Sheets camp was completely upfront with the Rangers throughout the process -- and, for that matter, if any sort of attempt was made to conceal the seriousness of Sheets's medical situation.
● Gil LeBreton of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram suggests this morning that it might be prudent of Sheets to accept a multi-year deal from the Rangers -- perhaps structurally similar to the multi-year deal Jon Lieber obtained from the Yankees six years ago, which the ever-prescient Jamey Newberg discussed a matter of hours before the Sheets story broke -- and utilize the organization's facilities as he begins the laborious task of rehabilitation. A nice thought, but I must openly question the level of motivation on both sides to reach yet another agreement in light of the new set of obstacles now present.
If the prognosis after the impending surgical procedure is optimistic, what would compel Sheets to accept an incentive-based multi-year deal with little guaranteed money when (a) he could return to the free-agent market in a matter of months as one of the best pitchers in a weak 2009-2010 free-agent pitching class and (b) Texas is such an inherently difficult place to attempt to rehabilitate your value as a starting pitcher? Conversely, if the post-operative prognosis is grim, why would the Rangers want to willingly sacrifice a relatively valuable second-round pick to the Brewers if Sheets isn't likely to regain his former effectiveness in a reasonable timeframe?
Assuming that (a) Sheets withholds from signing until after the 2009 MLB First-Year Player Draft (which begins on June 9th), (b) that the other seven outstanding Type A and Type B free agents -- a group which comprises Paul Byrd, Orlando Cabrera, Juan Cruz, Mark Grudzielanek, Orlando Hudson, Manny Ramirez and Dennys Reyes -- all come to terms with different teams and (c) that the Mariners' 2008 first-round pick, Joshua Fields, fails to sign before the draft, the Rangers' top three picks should be at No. 13, No. 42 (compensation for Milton Bradley's defection to the Cubs) and No. 58, the last of which is the second-round pick that would be forfeited if the club opts to sign Sheets.
Think it's still a no-brainer that Texas will relinquish that pick in exchange for what basically amounts to damaged goods? Think again.
Perhaps the most infuriating component of this abortive signing is that the Rangers, by all indications, did absolutely everything that could reasonably be expected of them to make it happen. The medical records were scrutinized to the highest degree, the determination was correctly made that a healthy Sheets would measurably improve the organization's big league product over the next several seasons, the authorization of the player-specific expansion in payroll required to enable the signing was made by club owner Tom Hicks, the preliminary agreement was struck, and the exhaustive physical upon which the entire deal was contingent was conducted -- all while maintaining the low-key and unassuming stance with regard to the free-agent market that this front-office regime has instilled not by accidence but by design.
And yet at the end of the day, it's simply didn't work out as everybody had so hopefully envisioned. Them's the breaks, I suppose.
Quick Hits: Jon Daniels told ESPN.com on Thursday that the Rangers had previously contemplated the possibility of signing free-agent outfielder Manny Ramirez, but have since dismissed the idea; Ramirez recently rejected the Dodgers' one-year, $25 million offer ... Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets, Nationals, Rangers, and Yankees had held conversations with the representatives of free-agent first baseman Kevin Millar, but the 37-year-old veteran has elected to join the Blue Jays on a minor league deal ... According to SI.com's Jon Heyman, newly re-signed southpaw Eddie Guardado can obtain different bonus payouts depending on what team he's traded to ... Boston signed free-agent outfielder Brad Wilkerson to a minor league deal ... Baseball Time in Arlington is now listed on Facebook and Twitter.
Reader Comments (15)
Great summary, Joey. The Rangers need to move on, and Sheets is best off recovering and then trying again when he's healthy.
Ben Sheets = catch 22.
Rob, you mean he needs to recover in order to sign, but needs to sign in order to recover?
Not that he would have to rehab with a team, but I don't think he needs to sign with us to be invited to use Ranger facilities and staff, does he?
MG: Sort of. In order to get that big contract he desires he needs to pitch and prove he is healthy. But if he pitches, he is likely to get hurt again thus defeating the purpose of pitching.
Ha, indubitably is a funny word. I can definitely see Close trying to conceal this injury from other teams. Why wouldn't he want to hide it? I'm with you, I am dumbfounded that the Brewers saw nothing wrong with him and went as far as offering him arbitration. To put my conspiracy hat on, maybe they knew the seriousness of the injury, but were trying to do Sheets a good by making it appear that he was alright. I don't know but, you can't blame the Rangers on this one.
It brings me back to 3rd grade with Mrs. Marshall... "There's a hole in the bucket, dear Liza, dear Liza..."
Well, in signing Jennings (again, but 10 months removed from a re-dux of the surgery), the Rangers may have signed their best preview of what to expect from a similarly injured Sheets.
I think the silver lining here (except for Sheets, who has no silver lining), is that the Rangers absolutely handled this situation as best as they possibly could. As for the Brewers striking out because they didn't recoup the 2 draft picks... I don't wonder if they had a BETTER understanding of the injury than what they let on and just hoped if they kept their mouth shut, a team would jump on him real quick once CC, Burnett, and Lowe got scooped up. I mean, they did technically
offer him arbitration and in doing such look like they did everything they could, but no one thinks for a second Sheets would have accepted arb. if he thought he was healthy enough to pitch this season - or rather that he WOULDN'T have accepted arb. if he knew he was going to be injured all season.
http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2009/02/06/jason-jennings-signs-with-rangers/
Says the Rangers just signed Jason Jennings to a minor league deal.
Hopefully the sour taste of not getting Sheets doesn't force the Rangers hands into doing something stupid like over valuing Buccholz and trading way too much to get him, or taking something lesser back like Bard and Hagadon for Salty and Poveda.
sprite: I feel the same way on this one. Someone had to know, and if they didn't why not?
The Rangers have been conducting business golden, and that is the breathe of fresh air or step #5, that allows me to have acceptance. Those steps are dead on.
One thing to consider about Buccholz is Jamey said he would be #1 in the Rangers system, which means a lot would have to be given up to get him, which in turn might be too expensive of a price to pay. My confidence is growing that the Rangers won't make a dumb move.
Facebook=good; Myspace=better at least for me and my own musical journey. Hope to see you over there BBTIA.
Yeah myspace > facebook
You know Robert, I think Bowden/Hagadone would be a perfectly acceptable return for Salty, myself. From what I've read on Hagadone, I'm really high on him (though I'd be interested to hear anything Jason might have to say about him) - even though he's coming off TJ, he'd probably be the steal of such a trade, IMO. Bowden looks like a pretty solid bet for a mid-rotation solid arm, and now that we've lost Eric Hurley (who I think was pretty comparable to him) that kind of profile/ceiling does look quite a bit more valuable to us.
That said though, I'm not really in favor of Bowden/Bard, or even Bowden/Masterson as I don't think Masterson and Bard will ever make it out of the bullpen - considering we've been hoping to land the big fish in Buchholz this whole time, settling for a mid-roto ceiling guy and a reliever seems more like a desperate move to bolster the rotation than compromising at a fair value.
I'd be all for Bowden/Hagadone, but I think Salty's value has decreased, unless he shows something overwhelming in ST, or by the trade deadline. I'm not saying he has no value or couldn't, but this is the year we find out just exactly what Salty is. I'd like to know what Joey thinks of Salty's realistic value as well, cause everytime I read at MLBTR, the Boston folks seem to think it's Teagarden or nothing, or minimal returns for Salty. Personally I don't see why Byrd/Salty couldn't of have got something done. Help us Joey Wan Kenobi... your our only hope!!!
Well, I'm not Joey, but let me just say that while MLBTR is a great site for the information they present, the comments section is... well... lets just say not as informative as BBTiA's can be. Especially when it's the Boston homers talking.
Salty absolutely tore up the winter leagues this offseason and he's still the same guy who was one of the games top catching prospects just a couple years ago - I don't think his value has really gone down this winter. If anything, it's probably recooped from what it was after his injury in September.
From what we've heard over the past few months, the sticking point with Boston has been us refusing to back down from our demand of Buchholz, and Boston being unwilling to deal him, at least for Salty. And if they won't deal him for Salty, I'm not sure I believe the rumors that they'd deal him for Teagarden instead (although if those rumors did turn out to be true, and we chose Tea over Buchholz I'd be slightly upset, to say the least). Now, the best we can hope for in a Boston deal is probably to try and turn Theo's desire to keep Buchholz into the best possible package (Bowden/Hagadone) of lower prospects possible.
Thanks Jon!!!
It drives me nuts, the wondering that is, and the homerism, you help shed some light on it, for that and the quick response THANKS!!! I agree, I'd be upset as well, if we didn't take that offer (Tea for Buch), especially for our team who's biggest need is pitching, if it was presented and the Rangers FO rejected.