BBTiA Scouting Series: Justin Smoak
Jason Parks
Is Justin Smoak the next Mark Teixeira? - Photo courtesy of Drake Bomber
When deciding whether or not to go forward with this series, I relied heavily on those already in the scouting world for advice. Scouting players is a very difficult challenge, and despite my egotistical belief in my own ability, I'm not foolish enough to think my analysis is the final word.
However, I have been able to see most of the players in the Rangers' system, and I have had the opportunity to discuss the abilities of those players with people in the business of talent evaluation. It is from those discussions and from my own observations that these scouting reports were crafted. Scouting isn't an exact science, and I'm sure there will be differing opinions on the grades, but I'm confident that all of the analysis presented here will be completely objective and accurate to the best of my ability.
Former Baseball HQ prospect writer and current member of the St. Louis Cardinals scouting department, Deric McKamey, on how players are graded by scouts:
Scouts grade players based on a 20-to-80 (or 2-8) scale, with 80 representing the highest achievable grade. The grade of 50 is considered major league average. Position players are graded in five categories (hitting, power, speed, throwing, and fielding), which are typically referred to as the "five tools." Players will also receive grades for base running, arm accuracy, baseball instinct, and aggressiveness, though they do not account as much for the final grade.
An amateur player or minor league player will receive two grades for each tool: a present grade and a future grade, based on how they are expected to perform in the majors. Future grades are added and then divided by the number of grades to determine their Overall Future Potential (OFP). A scout can then adjust a player's OFP by 10 points based on the lesser categories and their gut instinct.
Overall Grades:
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Hitting Grades:
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Justin Smoak's Grades:
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Justin Smoak was a first-round selection in the 2008 amateur draft out of the University of South Carolina. Smoak, considered by many to be the best pure hitter in the draft class, experienced an unexpected fall to the Rangers, who held the 11th-overall pick. Negotiations went down to the wire, but Smoak finally agreed to an over-slot minor league contract carrying a $3.5 million signing bonus. This investment is sure to pay off, as Smoak possesses the most advanced hitting tools in the system, putting his journey to the major leagues on the express track.
As far as pure hitting tools go, there aren't many minor leaguers that have the ability to hit a baseball like Smoak can. His hitting fundamentals are sound from both sides of the plate; he keeps his hands back, has a calm load, and a smooth path to the ball with excellent lift and bat plane. His swing from the left side is slightly more compact, but his superior strength creates enough bat speed to give him power from both sides of the plate.
His swing from the right side, while slightly longer, doesn't appear to have an exploitable hole that would make him susceptible to balls on the inner half of the plate. Thanks to his mechanics, he is able to stay inside the ball and generate tremendous bat speed, producing power to all fields. He's very Mark Teixeira-esque in that regard, although Smoak's swing is more compact. In fact, the comparisons to Mark Teixeira, while fairly obvious and easy to deduce based on surface information, are reasonably accurate. Smoak's offensive output will probably fall short of Teixeira's yearly offensive production, but his bat will still be an above-average force from both sides of the plate.
Overall, Smoak is the most advanced offensive threat in the Rangers system since the aforementioned Teixeira. His advanced approach at the plate in combination with his ability to make consistent, hard contact will ensure his ability to get on base at a high clip at the major league level. His power, a 65-70 grade, will eventually produce 25-30 homers and 30-35 doubles a season. I don’t think it's a stretch to expect Smoak to eventually produce a .290/.370/.450 batting line on a yearly basis.
On defense, Smoak is everything you would want in a first baseman. His glove is a plus tool that swallows up everything within its grasp. His arm is only average, but his throws are accurate and his mechanics are sound. He's a large target with solid footwork around the bag, and despite lacking exceptional first-step quickness, has more than just fall-down range at first base. His overall defensive skill set will eventually place him in the top tier of defensive first basemen in the American League and could one day lead to some arbitrary hardware as a result.
Smoak's raw tools point to a player that straddles the line of superstar and above-average major league regular. His speed lowers his raw OFP grade, but his final grade was adjusted up four points based on his other tools and their weight as they apply to his game. Smoak should see Double-A Frisco by the summer, if not to start the season, with a chance for an 2009 call-up if the minors prove to be no obstacle in his ascension.
Reader Comments (27)
Just reading this, and I'm getting even more excited about Smoak. I can't wait until he does get called-up, which shouldn't be too long with present grades like that, then we can watch this "wow" in action!!! One other thought... UNTOUCHABLE!!! We should feel blessed to have Smoak, because a player of this caliber slipping like that, and landing in our teams lap, is nothing short of miracle.
Great stuff!!!
Regarding the Teixeira comp, I think some folks are taking that too literally. As you say, his production won't quite be Teixeira-level, but he'll still be an above average 1B and a solid player on a playoff contender.
For comparison purposes, does anybody know what Teixeira's grade was when he was Smoak's age?
Josey: I don't have an OFP report on Tex, but I will ask around and find something. If I recall, Tex graded out over 65+. His power was an 80 and his hitting was at least a 70. His glove was similar to Smoak's, but I believe his arm graded out higher.
Off the top of my head:
Tex:
Hitting: 70
Power:80
FIelding: 70
Throwing: 55
Speed: 50
Raw OFP: 65
AOFP: 70
Jason,
Thanks - I should have also asked at the same time what CDavis' score was last year.
Do you know that as well?
One scout I just spoke with had Davis graded like this:
Hitting: 45/55
Power: 70/75
Throwing: 60/60
FIelding: 50/55
Speed: 45/40
Raw: 57
AOFP: 60
*This is just one scout's opinion. Personally, I would have Davis's power graded out as a true 80. Of course, most scouts don't throw 80s out there very often and a 75 grade is still quite exceptional.
Teixeira's 6 yr averages
.290 37 doubles 34 HR .919 ops
Smoak's projection
.290 33 doubles 33 HR .910 ops
Teixeira by a nose.
Were the defensive assessments on Davis based on him playing 3B?
Without looking at fielding stats, I would have thought that Davis would have graded higher as a defender at 1B.
He was capable of playing 3B in a pinch but he was obviously a fishouttawater.
The Davis grades are from the beginning of '08. The grades are for the raw tools and not influenced by statistics. Davis has solid defensive chops at 1B, but not glove glove level.
Awesome information Jason. I've never been as excited as others about Smoak, because I thought he was going to take a few years to get here, and I've focused much more on the pitching than anything else...but I'm VERY excited to see him come up quickly.
So it's safe to say that Smoak will be between Teixeira and Chris Davis, closer to Tex in most aspects, but that we now have three legit star 1B/DH types in those two plus Max Ramirez? That's pretty exciting.
Thanks for this.
Just wondering, what does "load" mean? I feel like I've read this in Law's prospect reviews. I'm imagining it's the sum of batter movements before the pitch reaches the plate.
HIghtower: The load is the first part of the pre-swing. It's the process of shifting weight to the back leg.
I have seen Justin play here in columbia for the last couple years and I think the Rangers have gotten a great player. Here at USC we have had some great baseball players but Smoak is by far the best I have seen. He left early as a junior yet still owns the all time HR record here. He is also very good on defense the only knock on him is he is not the fastest guy but he more than makes up for that with the other parts of his game.
I'm hoping Smoak will be taking a trot around the base-paths more often than not.
I don't care if Jason Castro addressed an organizational deficiency for Houston, that was still a horrendous pick in light of the level of talent the Astros had (and still have, which is to say not a lot) in their farm system.
We'll still be referencing Houston's Castro > Smoak decision years from now, I predict.
Awesome stuff Jason.
Truth be told, I wasn't aware Smoak's power graded out at a true 70 - that's really nice to hear. Although he's obviously got to get to the majors first, this just reinforces my opinion that Smoak will eventually knock Davis off first base, if not out of the organization.
How great was it to land Smoak last year when about 5 teams should have taken him before us? It was like the icing on top of a big, fat prospect bonanza cupcake. It's like getting a free star player.
I think Houston is going to rue the day on this one, bruthas.
I agree, especially when it's Smoak's bat helping to contribute by keeping the "Silver Boot" in Arlington. They are gonna rue the day, as hopefully all the other 10 teams do as well.
Glad we got him signed, another great move by this staff. Seattle still hasn't signed their pick, which is also good news.
justin smoak is definitly an 80 in everything and when he gets his chance in arlington he will make sure everyone knows it !!!!
not sure if this will work, but i'll try... got this off a website shortly after he was drafted:
Player Grades
PRESENT FUTURE
Hitting 45 60
Power 60 --
Plate Discipline 55 60
Running Speed 40 40
Fielding Range 55 60
Arm Strength 40 40
Feel for Game 50 55
Robert: Are those grades for Smoak? If so, I'm questioning the arm strength grade and the legitimacy of the "feel for game" grade.
How would you grade Smoak's good face, Jason?
Joey: Smoak has above-average make-up and intangibles. Good face: Above-average
If you go to Baseball-intellect.com, you'll find a scouting report on Smoak where they break down his swing while he was still at South Carolina. They compared his power potential to Chris Davis. I just thought it was interesting that of all the hitters out there, Smoak was compared to a guy he'll eventually be in a line-up with.
Jason,
Yeah I'm sorry that was for Smoak. I also have Robbie Ross and Tim Murphy. I googled the scouting report that goes with it and it's from Keith Law actually on his ESPN coverage of the draft. Though it's insider only. I can post the link if it doesn't violate the TOS or anything.
I agree with Keith for the most part, but his grade for Smoak's arm is slightly inaccurate. Also, fielding range doesn't usually increase like that. The fielding grade as a whole might increase, but fielding range usually decreases as players age/mature. Smoak is a really big guy that isn't overly athletic, so it seems a bit odd to think his range would improve as a professional from where it was as an amateur.
Jason,
Wish I had answers for ya but KLaw has been awfully high on Smoak, comparing him to a switch hitting Adrian Gonzalez with more power. Not sure I'm that high on Smoak's potential with the glove, but I could settle with that kind of offense.