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Friday
27Feb2009

Friday Morning Rangers Notes: Millwood, Murphy & Pitching Projections

Programming advisory: The third and final installment of "The Ten Longest Texas Rangers Home Runs Of 2008" series -- the first two parts can be viewed here and here, respectively -- is now slated to drop on Sunday morning. Apologies for the unexpected schedule revision; hopefully the below column will somewhat whet your baseball appetite until then.

Thanks again for making Thursday afternoon's live gameday chat session such a rousing success.

● Right-hander Kevin Millwood's two sharp frames of one-hit baseball against a subpar Royals lineup on Thursday afternoon may ultimately be inconsequential in the grand scheme of things, but they constituted a refreshing deviation from the 2008 iteration of Kevin Millwood that was seemingly out of sync from the get-go last spring and logged a grand total of 40 days on the 15-day disabled list as a result of recurring soreness in his right groin muscle:

"I'm excited about it," Millwood said. "I felt strong. I think my velocity will get better as the spring goes on, but as far as locating the ball and throwing a good breaking ball, I was extremely happy with it."

Talk is cheap, of course; Millwood similarly proclaimed that he "[felt] healthy ... and strong" on March 20th of last year after tossing five shutout innings against the Diamondbacks in his 2008 Cactus League debut, an assessment with which then-pitching coach Mark Connor concurred. Subsequent physical issues unfortunately begat season-long inconsistency after three above-average starts out of the gates, so perhaps the best thing we can take away from his latest promising performance is that nothing has gone awry ... yet.

Southpaw Derek Holland -- whom industry publication Baseball America recognized as the game's fifth-best left-handed pitching prospect on Wednesday, just behind Baltimore's Brian Matusz and well ahead of Chicago's Aaron Poreda in terms of placement in the publication's Top 100 Prospect rankings -- both shone and struggled, yielding a pair of solo shots and free passes but ratcheting up his game in the face of enormous spring adversity to punch out Mike Jacobs swinging with two outs in the bottom of the third inning.

Allowing copious walks and home runs has never been Holland's modus operandi at any point in his two-year professional career; it was a blip on the radar, but a necessary blip for his long-term development nevertheless in that new challenges will only impel him to further improve and refine his repertoire and approach on the hill.

Willie Eyre -- who, at one point, hit 93 mph on the Surprise Stadium radar gun -- and Joe Torres? Perfect. Eddie Guardado and Doug Mathis? Not so much. Josh Hamilton? Ridiculous, as usual.

And the new radio tandem of Eric Nadel and Dave Barnett? Awesome.

● The David Murphy love train is chugging along full steam, and it is increasingly beginning to sound as though Marlon Byrd has been relegated to a slot no higher than fourth in the Rangers' major league outfield depth chart behind Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Murphy, with Andruw Jones still embodying the big wild card of the spring.

There's a sort of philosophical dissonance between the assorted merits of Murphy -- who has relative youth, upside and service time in his corner -- and Byrd, still a superior performer with both the bat and the glove based on his work over the last two seasons, and from the standpoint that Texas wants to determine what Murphy actually is once and for all, giving him ample playing time in 2009 is wise.

Texas currently finds itself in that tricky transitional stage, however, where the urgency of player development has to be properly balanced with the need to field a competitive major league product and fuel ticket sales at a time when disposable income is increasingly drying up. Perhaps that's why Jeff Wilson's implication in the Thursday morning edition of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that the lefty-hitting troika of Hank Blalock, David Murphy and Chris Davis would likely occupy the fifth, sixth and seventh spots in the Opening Day batting order against reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee confused me to such an extent.

Lee was admittedly tougher on right-handed batters in 2008 than those that he enjoyed a same-side advantage against (left-handed batters enjoyed an additional 20 points of both on-base and slugging percentage, albeit still amounting to just .272/.299/.362 in 254 plate appearances, and perhaps that reverse advantage was the product of his most frequently utilized off-speed pitch -- the change-up), and I'm not going to be the one to brazenly proclaim, "Well, Murphy never has been any good against southpaws, so therefore he absolutely never will be any good against southpaws." Look, stuff happens. Adjustments happen. Progress happens. Perhaps this is the year that he proves himself competent against that segment of the major league population. I just don't think it's all that likely.

The point is that if Byrd's worth in the Rangers' eyes has fallen to such depths that he's not even going to be employed in a situation that absolutely screams for a platoon advantage, the Rangers might as well deal him now before his value begins to plummet like the post-World War I German mark. In fact, I'll go ahead and record my prediction now, and if it doesn't pan out I'll make fun of it later: Byrd will be playing for another organization on May 1st.

Now, if only Matt Murton were available ...

● Finally, thanks to popular Cardinals blog Viva El Birdos for inspiring this Win Value-driven comparison of each of the AL West's four tentative 2009 starting rotations:

The methodology I used was similar to the one used at Viva El Birdos; I plugged Baseball Prospectus's playing time-weighted innings projections into Sky Kalkman's wins above replacement spreadsheet, then utilized the ERA projections from two popular player forecasting systems -- Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA and Sean Smith's CHONE -- and tallied the

Of course, the problems with this sort of simplistic snapshot analysis are multifold. Dustin Nippert is, for whatever reason, projected as the Rangers' No. 3 starter, and Baseball Prospectus forecasts the Rangers to receive fewer innings from their tentative starting five than any of their divisional counterparts; additionally, CHONE calculated ERA projections for Scott Feldman, Brandon Morrow and Ryan Rowland-Smith as if they were all going to be full-time relievers in 2009, which is obviously advantageous to their ERA projections, and Matt Harrison would be yanked from the Rangers' starting rotation long before he could amass 140 innings if he fulfilled PECOTA's dire forecast of a 6.31 ERA.

The above graph is not at all scientific, and shouldn't be viewed as a indicator of major league pitching talent so much as a reflection of the level of production each club is projected to receive from the starting five it breaks camp with; in that regard, the Rangers clearly lag behind their competition, and some very pleasant surprises will be required if the Rangers are to legitimately entertain the notion of hanging around in the post-season discussion beyond the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline.

Kevin Millwood living up to his contract would be a strong first step in the right direction.

Quick Hits: Marlon Byrd (microfracture surgery, left knee) ran at 95 percent without difficulty earlier this week, and could be medically cleared to play by team physician Dr. Keith Meister as early as today ... Manager Ron Washington on Josh Hamilton: "Josh really needs to be monitored, health-wise, meaning he gets some time at DH, which he initially balked at last year, and occasionally getting him out of center field [to a corner spot] when he’s playing the outfield. The more ABs [at bats] the more we will benefit as a team" ... Texas will send a representative to watch free-agent right-hander Chad Cordero throw off a mound today, but has no interest in free-agent left-hander Odalis Perez ... The MLB Network will air a one-hour documentary entitled Josh Hamilton: Resurrecting the Dream at 8:00 p.m. CST tonight.

Reader Comments (5)

Poor Marlon Byrd... he just seems to get no respect in the springtime.

I'm wondering why the Rangers are suddenly so low on him - are they not at all optimistic that he'll return 100% from his knee surgery? And if the questions about his health are the problem, does he really have any value on the market at all? Given the mysterious shoulder ills of Brandon Boggs, I think it might be more prudent to hold onto Byrd and keep him in a 5th OFer's role, allowing him further time to recover if we're not going to get anything of value for him.

Which leads me also to an afterthought: what would Byrd have to do to be a type B free agent at the end of the season? If he retains that status, he might be worth holding onto for the draft pick as well.

February 27, 2009 at 6:01 AM | Registered CommenterJon Page

Did you guys read that Milton Bradley tweaked his quad in his very first at bat this spring? LOL. That's too funny. Good luck with that one, Lou! Maybe they'll end up having to come calling for Marlon Byrd after all!

February 27, 2009 at 7:37 AM | Unregistered CommenterJDolla$

I think you are misreading the Byrd situation. Before Jones signed, I think they penciled Byrd in as the 4th OFer and would have gotten plenty of ABs. A reinvigorated Jones is better than Byrd and may relegated Murphy or Cruz to a 4th OFer or platoon role.

Also, I had a ticket for the Byrd for Murton+ train. Fortunately it never made it to the station.

February 27, 2009 at 9:05 AM | Unregistered CommenterRob M.

And perhaps that is so, Rob (and I think I predicted at one point not too long ago that Byrd and Murphy would probably each log somewhere around 400 PA)...it's just very curious to me how Byrd, who has over the last two seasons been a better player than Murphy in just about every respect and, to that end, one of the Rangers' better players over the last two seasons, is seemingly being eschewed now that Andruw is in the fold.

In other news:

● Jerry Crasnick has authored a pretty lengthy retrospective look at the Michael Young debacle of last month:

"When somebody sits there and says Derek Jeter is a bad shortstop, it's comical," Young said. "Derek brings so many things to the game that people don't see or understand. He's an unbelievable player, a first-ballot Hall of Famer and an incredible shortstop. It's laughable to say he's a bad shortstop.

"To sit and quantify defense, that's a difficult thing to do. What I like about shortstop is the fact that there are so many responsibilities other than the obvious, tangible things. I enjoy the parts of the position that you can't see in box scores. You can have such a massive impact on a game even when you're not getting ground balls hit at you."

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=3939207&type=story

Jeter was actually better last season from a defensive standpoint relative to '07, but ... well, he's still below average, and I know Young didn't mean it this way, but I don't see how Jeter's HoF merits have any relevance to the subject of his poor defense...

● T.R. Sullivan concurs that Joe Torres is one to watch...I ragged on him a bit at the time of his signing ("If he logs more than a handful of innings in the majors in 2009, it will not be pretty"), and I doubt he has just magically overcome his control problems, but he was sharp on Thursday and has the ability to miss bats, and that's pretty intriguing from a left-hander...

Also, it's beginning to sound as though Kason Gabbard will not be ready by Opening Day...shades of John Rheinecker already...

● And Brandon McCarthy on what Mike Maddux has brought to camp:

"Just a positive attitude. I think he does a lot of work with guys mentally and I think that helps a lot of guys. Especially we've been down the past couple years, he's brought a lot of positivity in. He's drilled us in a lot of work ethic things. Everything he's done has been positive for us."

I never remember reading anything like this about Mark Connor.

February 27, 2009 at 1:29 PM | Registered CommenterJoey Matschulat

"You can have such a massive impact on a game even when you're not getting ground balls hit at you."

I think somebody needs to tell Michael that impact is not a positive one.

February 28, 2009 at 1:58 AM | Registered CommenterJon Page

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