Tuesday
Feb242009
Ask Professor Parks: Open Thread
Jason Parks
Have a question about the Rangers' farm system? Have a question about the major league team? Have a question about the works of Ad Reinhardt or David Alfaro Siqueiros? Post your questions in the comments section and I will answer throughout the day. Anything goes.
Reader Comments (86)
Professor: What are your overall impressions of ST so far?
No major injuries and no major issues. I'm leaving for ST in a few days, so I'll have more to add next week.
What current minor league player do you see having the biggest impact in the 2010 season for the rangers? Who do you think has got the most likely to be traded tag on them in this season on the rangers?
Kris:
1. Justin Smoak. Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland will probably be in the 2010 rotation, but I think Smoak's overall impact will be greater. He's going to be a monster from day one. Feliz and Holland will no doubt flash the brilliance that is to come, but they are going to experience some setbacks.
2. Marlon Byrd
What happens with Davis in 2010? DH?
Kris: I think Davis will see time at 1B and DH in 2010.
I think Matt Harrison had a really good rookie season. I am excited to see how he continues to progress this year. How good do you expect him to be this year? and in the future?
What would you project julio borbon and elvis andrus stolen base totals to regularly be per season in their careers?
In all honesty, if you could choose for us to either have, holland feliz and main, or anderson cahill and inoa. which three would you rather the rangers have?
Levi: I think Matt Harrison will improve in '09 and cement his role as a reliable back-of-the-rotation starter. I see Harrison as a 175-200 innings, 10 win, 4.50 era starter that keeps the ball on the ground and the team in the game.
Teddy: Borbon could end up being a 30-40 SB guy with Andrus stealing 25-30+. Depends on how often they get on base and if they can steal at a 70% clip or higher.
Ranger: Excellent question. Honestly, I'd take the A's trio. Cahill and Anderson are safe bets to become solid major league pitchers and Inoa could be a once in a generation talent. I really like the promise of the three Rangers you mentioned, but Inoa puts the A's over-the-top in my opinion. He could be great.
What are your impressions on the BA's top 100 list?
Is late 2010 a reasonable ETA for Michael Main?
Is 8th inning reliever the apporpriate ceiling for Warner Madrigal? Where do you see him settling in?
Kinslerhomer: I think BA has a roster of talented baseball writers and access to all the scouting information available. That said, not all scouting information is created equal. Unless they spend hours watching the players they write about, their reports are just the pooled thoughts of others. People make mistakes. Main should be in the top 100.
Do you think if Jones makes a fantastic turnaround there's a possibility he could get traded depending on how the Ranger's season goes?
It's national pancake day... are you going to cash in on your free pancakes from IHOP?
Hefe: Yes. I think Main reaches AA at some point in '09 and Arlington at some point in late '10.
I think Madrigal would make a very good late-inning reliever. 7th or 8th inning.
Double D: Sure. Jones would have to really rebound to have value, but it's possible.
I live in NYC. I don't even know where the nearest iHOP is. I would, though. I really like pancakes.
Can you give us an idea which players you think will be in season promotions to Frisco?
I guess Smoak, Main, and Beavan are all likely candidates, any others?
I'm not Professor Parks, but I am curious as to what "a fantastic turnaround" would actually entail. An .850 OPS? .900? 25 HR? A huge year might allow him to attain Type B free agent status, which would obviously render him at least marginally more attractive to potential trade suitors, but we've seen a huge upward shift in the perceived value of prospects in baseball over the last 20 months or so, so from that standpoint he's not likely to recoup significant value in terms of young, cost-controlled players, and you would think that would be what the Rangers would really be targeting right now.
Also, how many teams still in contention in July will have a need for a center fielder?
What role do you see for Tommy Hunter in the second half?
AAA starter? big league starter? big league set up man?
do you think the bloodbath he experienced at the ML level last season will be a positive, a negative, or no significant impact on his long term development?
do you rate his curveball as a plus pitch? what grade would you assign his FB?
Todd:
1. Corey Young, Tim Murphy, Richard Bleier, and even guys like Bianucci, Moreland, and Tim Smith have a chance to reach Frisco.
2. I think Hunter is eventually going to be a reliever, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him pitch in the AAA rotation for most of '09. He needs to focus on the development of his change-up.
3. Hunter is a tough competitor and I think getting abused at the major league level in '08 showed him what he needs to focus on to have success at that level.
4. I think his fastball is an average pitch. His curve is plus.
Just for fun, could you give your hr, rbi, avg, and sb projections for elvis andrus this season? also, we will just say holland is here for about 12-15 starts for the end of the season, what would you project his era, innings, strikeout/walk?
Bleier, Corey Young, and Tim Murphy all seem to be fast track lefties, what can you tell us about their stuff and projection?
Of some of our top prospects, could you put some in these categories, in your opinion
1. Ones you think are most likely to become multiple time all star
2. Everyday regular solid players
3. role player, utility, bench, long relief, triple a all star
4. total bust, most likely, have to choose someone!
Levi:
Elvis Andrus in '09: .250/.290/.330, 2 HR, 45 rbi, 20 SB
Derek Holland (12-15 starts): 3-5, 5.00 era, 70 innings, 55 Ks, 20 BB
Todd:
Bleier: Heavy fastball with excellent GB/FB ratios. Average secondary stuff. I think he projects as a 5th starter/long-man at the major league level.
Corey Young: Good fastball, great curve ball. Dominates LH. LOOGY.
Tim Murphy: Solid three pitch arsenal. Tough competitor that loves to attack hitters. He could surprise and stick in a rotation but I think he ends up in the pen at the major league level.
Is it possible for Carlos Melo to turn into a Neftali Feliz? somewhat the same scouting reports as feliz from right at the time of the trade right?
So now that it appears that Johan Yan the hitter topped out with a 28 game stint in Spokane in 2007, where does Johan Yan the pitcher start out in 2009? I noticed that back in October (Rangers Fall Instructional League Report: Part II, October 11th), in your pitch chart on Yan, he threw nine pitches, eight of which were fastballs, and the other one being a breaking ball. Have you heard anything new on his pitching repertoire? He was throwing his fastball mostly in the low-90's back then. Is that still where he's at, or has there been any change in velocity associated with altered mechanics?
Also, is there anyone else in the Rangers organization that might be a candidate for a switch to the mound?
Scott Feldman's IPs increased from 70 in 2007 to 151 in 2008 as the team seemed unwilling to shut him down for meaningless games toward the end of the season. We have had previous discussions regarding the increased injury risk to guys who have increased their workload by >50 innings in one season. So...
Is it wise to count on Feldman as a starter in 2009 given his higher likelihood of injury?
Was this increase in workload poor management of the guy's health in your opinion?
Do other pitchers see this type of treatment and swear off coming to Texas?
Levi:
1. Justin Smoak, Neftali Feliz, Engel Beltre
2. Julio Borbon, Derek Holland, Elvis Andrus, Taylor Teagarden, Max Ramirez, Michael Main
3. Jose Vallejo, Marcus Lemon, German Duran, Tommy Hunter, Blake Beavan, Omar Poveda,
4. Wilmer Font, Neil Ramirez, Robbie Ross
Levi: Melo could be something very special. Turning into a Feliz is a best case scenario, but that was the point of getting him thrown into the Laird deal. He's a lottery ticket.
YourNameHere: Yan's secondary pitches are still very raw. He is still learning how to pitch and it's going to be a slow process. I haven't heard any velo reports since instructs, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Yan's fastball velo creep up as he learns to refine his mechanics. I think he starts in EST and then pitches in the AZL.
I would think that Manny Solis and David Paisano would be ideal candidates to give pitching a shot. Both have strong arms and weak bats.
What are the absolute best case long-term potential/ceilings for the following pitchers, and which do you see as starters versus relievers:
Thomas Diamond
Blake Beavan
Tommy Hunter
Martin Perez
Michael Main
Wilmer Font
Briant: I don't think Feldman is a big injury risk in '09. His innings increased, but his mechanics are sound. I don't think Feldman's workload in '08 was poor management in any way. They wouldn't have pushed him if they didn't think his body could handle it. If he gets hurt in '09 people can always point back to the workload increase, but I'm not so sure that will be an accurate assessment. We can debate that when/if it happens.
Thanks Jason.
A couple more questions:
1) It sounds like the Rangers currently have Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Harrison and Scott Feldman penciled is as there starting rotation if the season started today. However it's been noted that injuries and ineffectiveness could require the Rangers to use additional players. The names that I've seen on this topic are Dustin Nippert and then Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz. Does Josh Rupe enter the discussion? If not, why? For reference, Rupe did pitch 89.1 innings last season.
2) I've read that the Rangers are looking into the idea of "moving" Frank Catalanotto before the end of Spring Training. Do you think that if Catalanotto was a free agent today that he would be able to get a Major League Contract? If so, from what team?
Where do you see Thomas Diamond and Blake Beavan ending up this year? Will Diamond ever become a productive MLB player? Will Beavan regain the velocity he lost last year?
Taylor:
TD: Solid #3/4
Beavan: #2/3
Hunter: #3/4/Set-up
Perez: #2
Main: #2
Font: Closer
Joey... I guess the Andruw Jones question wasn't that great of a question... I really just wanted to find out if Professor Parks liked pancakes.
So maybe I should have thought a little more before asking my question. I suppose a fantastic turnaround compared to the year he had last year wouldn't take much. But I guess if he accumulated somewhere in the vicinity of 15-20 hrs with 60+ RBI's would be a good starting point. I understand the Rangers current standpoint on accumulating young, cost controlled players and thought maybe they had an ulterior motive in signing him hoping that they might be able to cash in on his potential comeback by trading him somewhere to get some. Although, without fully understanding the free agent status types I guess my question was somewhat of a rhetorical one. I don't really see them keeping him around next year if he does have a good season, a la Sammy Sosa.
YourNameHere:
1. I don't think Rupe will be a rotation option. Building innings is one thing, but building stamina to throw 100 mechanically sound pitches a start is another. Rupe has the stuff to start, but I think he is better suited for the pen.
I think arms like Mendoza, Mathis, and Hunter would get the call over Rupe.
2. I don't think Cat would get a major league deal. At this point he is an aging platoon bat with limited defensive skills. I don't see the demand.
Taylor: I think Diamond shocks some people and finally makes it up to the major league level in '09.
Beavan could reach AA. His velocity should creep back up a bit, but I don't think he is ever going to be a mid 90s pitcher. He shows excellent command of a low 90s fastball and that is more than enough to find success at the higher levels. If his slider improves he could be a really, really good pitcher.
Are the "black paintings" REALLY not black? They look black.
JDolla$: Are you referencing the Goya paintings? They are not all black. "The Black Paintings" are just a group of paintings (14) by Goya that are really creepy and dark. The paintings represent a very bleak time in Goya's life and were never intended to be shown to the public.
If you are referencing the Reinhardt painting, which would make more sense, it is actually made up of nine squares in nine different shades of black. It's an absolutely haunting painting to see in person.
Why is there still so much talk about Taylor Teagarden not being an offensive force? He did great at the end of last year, even if he was going up against teams who had thrown in the towel. They were still major league pitchers that were getting hit all over the place by him. I realize it's a small sample that seems to contradict his minor league numbers, buy why not give him the benefit of the doubt?
Mocah: Teagarden was fantastic in his brief major league call-up last season, but he was also somewhat pedestrian in the minors in a much larger sample size. I find it very hard to believe that Teagarden can hit major league pitching better than he could hit minor league pitching.
Ever met Dustin Majewski, the Frisco OFer last year? He is a former student of mine and a superb human being. It seems a shame that he likely won't ever get a shot to make the big leagues. But he will be a success in some other field, I am sure.
Keep up the good work.
do you think Salty, Teagarden, and MaxRam all remain Rangers throughout the season, or do you think one will be traded?
Todd: Good question. My gut tells me that one of those three will not be with the team in September. I only see two spots available for 2010 (both behind the plate) and only one of those catchers you listed profiles as an above-average defensive player. If the team does indeed want to stress defense and help the pitching, Teagarden is a lock to stick around as either the starter or a 40% back-up.
Salty or Max? I think Max gets traded. I know that makes you sad. It bothers me as well.
So you would rather see Salty traded than Max? What is the reasoning for that?
I think the logic behind the Andruw signing was far more deeply rooted in the Rangers' desire to add a potentially viable major league center fielder to the mix (and thus protect Hamilton) than it was in a belief that they could spin a quality season from Andruw into something of substantive value. Even if he has a pretty solid season, I don't foresee Texas getting much back -- though then again, it only takes one desperate GM to make a mistake and overpay.
If Andruw makes the team (and I see a lot of reason right now to think that he will), I'll be stunned if he doesn't make the bulk of his starts in center field.
Clayton: I think Max is the better hitter. Both players are somewhat limited defensively (although I think Salty is a better catcher than Max), so their success will be dependent on their offensive production. From what I've seen and what the statistical record indicates, Max is the superior offensive threat.
Why not let Teagarden start? We don't need the run production from catcher. It's a universal concensus he is far superior on defense and working with the pitchers, which could get us much more wins than the difference between his and salty's bats.