BBTiA Scouting Series: Engel Beltre
Jason Parks
Engel of the Morning - Photo courtesy of Juice NewtonWhen deciding whether or not to go forward with this series, I relied heavily on those already in the scouting world for advice. Scouting players is a very difficult challenge, and despite my egotistical belief in my own ability, I'm not foolish enough to think my analysis is the final word.
However, I have been able to see most of the players in the Rangers' system, and I have had the opportunity to discuss the abilities of those players with people in the business of talent evaluation. It is from those discussions and from my own observations that these scouting reports were crafted. Scouting isn't an exact science, and I'm sure there will be differing opinions on the grades, but I'm confident that all of the analysis presented here will be completely objective and accurate to the best of my ability.
Former Baseball HQ prospect writer and current member of the St. Louis Cardinals scouting department, Deric McKamey, on how players are graded by scouts:
Scouts grade players based on a 20-to-80 (or 2-8) scale, with 80 representing the highest achievable grade. The grade of 50 is considered major league average. Position players are graded in five categories (hitting, power, speed, throwing, and fielding), which are typically referred to as the "five tools." Players will also receive grades for base running, arm accuracy, baseball instinct, and aggressiveness, though they do not account as much for the final grade.
An amateur player or minor league player will receive two grades for each tool: a present grade and a future grade, based on how they are expected to perform in the majors. Future grades are added and then divided by the number of grades to determine their Overall Future Potential (OFP). A scout can then adjust a player's OFP by 10 points based on the lesser categories and their gut instinct.
Overall Grades:
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Hitting Grades:
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Engel Beltre's Grades:
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Acquired in the July 2007 Eric Gagne trade from the Boston Red Sox, outfield prospect Engel Beltre might have the highest ceiling of any position player in the system. His future tools all grade out as above average or higher, and if his approach at the plate takes a step forward, the Rangers could be looking at one of the best players in minor league baseball.
As a hitter, Beltre has a lot of work to do at the plate to reach his potential. His biggest weakness is his insatiable appetite for all pitches thrown in his general vicinity; he simply loves to swing the bat and isn't content unless he takes a cut. At this point in his professional career, Beltre would rather take his hacks and take a seat than keep the bat on his shoulder and walk to first. In 566 at-bats during the '08 season, Beltre took the free pass only 15 times. Even though he only struck out 105 times, a reasonable amount given the fact that he played the entire season as an 18-year-old, his strikeouts-to-walks ratio was so bad that it made Cristian Santana's ratio more palatable.
Despite the obvious issues with his approach, Beltre still has the ability to hit a baseball. His hitting mechanics are actually relatively sound with good balance, a quiet load, and a short stride, although he does have a tendency to get happy feet against left-handed pitching. His ridiculous hand-eye coordination allows him to make regular contact -- Beltre led the Midwest League in hits -- despite having less than stellar pitch recognition, often resulting in top-half swings. He's still quite raw in this phase of his game, but if he can control his natural aggressiveness and let the game come to him, I think he could eventually hit in the .270-.280 range at the major league level.
The area of Beltre's game that should start to blossom in '09 is his power. With impressive strength in spite of a thin, wiry frame, Beltre is able to generate considerable bat speed. His slight uppercut swing gives him the necessary bat plane to drive the ball and should result in more extra-base hits in '09. Assuming he develops the patience to utilize this tool, Beltre projects to hit 25-30 home runs at the major league level.
On defense, Beltre has a chance to be an impact player. His plus speed and baseball instincts give him excellent range in center field. His strong arm, which grades out as another plus tool, produces on-target throws with good carry. His fielding is still in need of refinement, but his desire to improve is evident and should eventually make him an above-average major league outfielder.
Not many players have Beltre's combination of raw athleticism and natural baseball instinct. He is a born ballplayer with the work ethic and professional desire to maximize his talent. Beltre is a star in the making, but he is still a long way from realizing his potential. He needs to learn to control his aggressiveness and improve his overall approach at the plate. It's imperative that Beltre learns the strategic elements of hitting. He has the tools to be great, but as John Sickels would say, he needs to start turning those tools into skills.
Reader Comments (17)
Do you project his defense would be acceptable in a major league centerfield? Better than acceptable? More suited to a corner?
Todd: I think Beltre has the skills to stick in CF at the major league level, but our depth at the position might allow him to move to a corner. I think the ideal scenario (2011) is an OF consisting of Beltre in LF, Borbon in CF, and Hamilton in RF.
I am not very optimisted about Beltre. I believe Scott Lucas reported in his Newberg minor league reports that Beltre was benched a few times because he wouldn't take some pitches. Is there a coachability problem?
With that 2011 timetable you are talking about moving up 4 levels in 2 years. Do you think he sees Frisco this season?
Rob: Beltre is very coachable.
Todd: Beltre is a classic boom-or-bust player. He's either going to get it and explode or he's going to flameout before AA. If his approach improves he could reach Frisco this year. That's a big IF.
Jason,
Can you give an example of a major league player that has actualized a true 80 grade in each of the five areas?
Also, based on the grades, it would seem that Smoak grades out to have a higher ceiling than Beltre. Would you agree or disagree, and why?
Thanks, I really enjoy reading your insights!
I like the idea of Beltre in left and Borbon in center, assuming both players get near their potential. The Rangers almost need two centerfielders in that ballpark, and if Beltre gets it at the plate than you have the best of both worlds - good defense in a big field with a bat good enough to play in the corner.
I think making up offensive statistics that supposedly are good in a certain position is the stupidest thing ever. Like saying a bat could "play in a corner." A lineup should be as good as it can 1-9 without having certain offensive statistics at certain places. If your second baseman has plus power and good average, why does your third baseman have to have plus power? If your left fielder has a high average and high on base percentage, and your center fielder has a lower average and good power, what does it matter? If Hamilton hits a lot of home runs with a high slugging percentage, is his bat "too good" to play in center field? Was Alex Rodriguez's bat "too good to play shortstop all those years? Did people breathe a sigh of relief when he moved to third and say "wow that makes so much more sense now, I feel better?" Its almost laughable how even some sports media will try to say someone's bat can or can't play at a certain position. All that matters is the lineup is good 1-9, correct?
t ball - I actually prefer Beltre in CF due to his arm.
dfw - I have tried to make a similar argument over at LSB a few times and have been roundly chastised for doing so.
Adam: I can't think of a player that grades out with 80s in all five categories. A young Barry would come close.
I think Beltre has a higher ceiling than Smoak. That's isn't a knock on Smoak, who no doubt is the safer bet to reach his lofty ceiling. Beltre is just a rare talent that has the potential to be a true five-tool player. Beltre's raw OFP grades are higher than Smoak's.
Sorry, I meant five players that have graded a true 80 in one of the five areas (i.e. Mark McGwire = 80 power, Tony Gwinn = 80 hitting, etc.).
Also, regarding Smoak/Beltre, I guess I value power and hitting above speed, defense, and throwing. I seem to remember Smoak cracking the 65-70 mark on those two areas. Does the aggregate grading favor certain tools, or are they weighted evenly?
hmm, with all the talk of Beltre being a potential Griffey Jr. and what not, I'm kind of disappointed that he only has a 60 as a potential power grade.
dfwsportsfan87, your anger is completely out of place and unnecessary. When someone says "bat could play in a corner" it's a reference to the overall average offense common at that position. A strong bat is rare at some positions, obviously, like SS or catcher, and if you have a player that can handle those positions defensively but also has a strong bat, that is a very valuable player for the team.
If the Rangers are able to have two very strong defensive players capable of playing CF in Borbon and Beltre, but Beltre has a strong enough bat to be at least league average for a LFer, the Rangers have an advantage over other teams. Other teams may have a strong bat in LF, but without the defensive prowess.
There is a WIDE difference from position to position in normal offensive production. Check out this post over at fangraphs for a detailed valuation of the different positions:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/position-adjustments
Adam: From Deric McKamey regarding the grading system:
"An amateur player or minor league player will receive two grades for each tool: a present grade and a future grade, based on how they are expected to perform in the majors. Future grades are added and then divided by the number of grades to determine their Overall Future Potential (OFP). A scout can then adjust a player's OFP by 10 points based on the lesser categories and their gut instinct."
Smoak's hitting grades are very high, but his slow speed grade drags down his raw OFP grade. Because speed isn't a necessary part of his game his AOFP grade was adjusted accordingly. Beltre's tools all grade out at 55 or above so his base OFP was slightly higher than Smoak's.
Major League examples of 80 grade tools:
Hitting: Albert Pujols
Power: Prince Fielder
Speed: Michael Bourn
Fielding: Omar Vizquel
Throwing: Vlad Guerrero
Who's angry?
I do think, t ball, that you missed my point. I realize it's great to have a good bat at a position usually reserved for defensive minded players. But I think its ridiculous to sell a player short because his bat may be different than most bats at his position are. I'm talking about the kind of hitter he is, not necessarily how his statisitcs grade compared to others at his position. Take Michael Young for example. He is not going to be the prototypical power-hitting corner infielder a la Chris Davis. I remember some bloggers and media saying because of that he would be a bad third baseman. And my point is, if your second baseman, say Kinsler, hits with more power than is customary for a second baseman, its alright that your third baseman hits more like a "second baseman" with less power and higher average. It's a bit shortsighted to sterotype a player based on his position in the field.
Would Beltre/Borbon/Hamilton represent the best defensive outfield in Rangers history?
This guys guna be a Super Star not only on the field but off it as well he went to my High School today this guy is so funny. Hes guna sell tickets for the on field performance and jerseys and stuff off of it. Theres guys like Vlad who are GREAT baseball players but restricted in a media sence this guy does not have that problem.