Winter Meetings Rumor Mill: Day 2 (Or Kevin Millwood Trade Watch)
Is Kevin Millwood destined for a date with the major league transaction wire?Wherein we really hope to see that hot stove start percolating out of control -- and soon:
10:20 P.M. CST -- The Rangers and Rays have discussed a possible Dioner Navarro-to-Texas deal, and Marlins corner infielder Jorge Cantu is thought to be of great interest to the Rangers, who would be amenable to trading pitching for a right-handed bat (Jeff Wilson, Fort Worth Star-Telegram; Jon Paul Morosi, FOXSports.com)
[The Navarro-to-Texas notion was touched on during the wee hours of this morning, but Cantu -- whose name has proliferated in trade circles since last year's winter meetings -- is a bit more intriguing, primarily because he's hit approximately .310/.375/.505 in his last 330 plate appearances against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons and has some modicum of defensive aptitude at first base.
Mind you, absorbing Cantu's salary -- which is certain to climb above $4 million in 2010, as he is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility -- will be no simple task given the current payroll constraints, but it may be that Cantu's somebody you can deploy with total confidence against southpaws and use to spell Chris Davis at first base without sustaining an enormous defensive hit. Morosi suggests that Texas could dangle oft-rumored right-hander Brandon McCarthy as trade bait in such a deal, but that idea doesn't hold much appeal with me.]
10:05 P.M. CST -- A few evening tidbits: The Rangers were expected to meet with the agents of free agent left-hander Darren Oliver on Tuesday evening, and were hoping to receive a medical update on free agent right-hander Ben Sheets from agent Casey Close before the meetings wrapped up; Texas is "no longer interested" in Cubs outfielder Milton Bradey, but has been discussing Reds left-hander Arthur Rhodes (T.R Sullivan, MLB.com; Joel Sherman, New York Post)
[If I didn't know any better, I'd say that Texas was pushing hard for an Opening Day starting rotation boasting either Rich Harden or Ben Sheets, Scott Feldman, Derek Holland, Tommy Hunter and C.J. Wilson, with Millwood being converted into prospects and payroll relief and McCarthy going ... well, somewhere. See above and below. That's a risky but extremely talented group of pitchers, one with materially higher upside than a Millwood/Feldman/Hunter/Holland/McCarthy rotation but also a much higher beta coefficient. And perhaps that's the sort of gamble it's going to take to have a legit shot at winning the division next year.]
4:20 P.M. CST -- One baseball official "swears" that Texas recently offered right-hander Nefali Feliz and first baseman Justin Smoak to the Marlins for right-hander Josh Johnson, but they were rebuffed by Florida (Jeff Wilson, Fort Worth Star-Telegram)
[For what it's worth, friend of Baseball Time in Arlington Frankie Piliere noted later in the day that no such offer was actually made, apparently corroborating the rumor's absurdity with two different sources. It's a steeper price than most people would be inclined to pay (including myself), but even though this trade is clearly not happening, understand that Johnson would have a legitimate chance at being a true ace in the American League and would probably render Texas the favorite to win the division in 2010. But, once again, it's not happening.]
2:50 P.M. CST -- Catching has emerged as a "high priority" for the Rangers in light of Jarrod Saltalamacchia's uncertain status, and included among the group of catchers the Rangers are considering are Rod Barajas, Jason Kendall, Yorvit Torrealba, Jose Molina and Henry Blanco (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
[Blanco's not a bad option. Kendall can't throw. Barajas will hit lots of home runs, but will give you a .260 on-base percentage while doing it. Torrealba's apparently staying in Colorado. And the distance from Molina's 2009 campaign (.260 wOBA) to the league-average hitter (.335 wOBA) is roughly equivalent to the distance from the league-average hitter to Carlton Fisk's breakthrough AL ROY-winning 1972 campaign (.408 wOBA), which is utterly mind-boggling.]
2:20 P.M. CST -- Right-hander Brandon McCarthy is drawing trade interest from other clubs; the Rangers have been linked to Pirates right-hander Matt Capps and catcher Ryan Doumit, as well as (for some reason) Dodgers outfielder Juan Pierre, but Pirates general manager Neal Huntington stated that Texas was "not a serious suitor" for Doumit and had no interest in a deal (Jon Paul Morosi, FOXSports.com; Dejan Kovacevic, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
2:00 P.M. CST -- Team president Nolan Ryan confirmed on Tuesday afternoon that he has partnered with Pittsburgh attorney Chuck Greenberg and will not remain with the organization if Dennis Gilbert places the prevailing bid; both Gilbert and Greenberg re-submitted bids on Monday (Jeff Wilson, Fort Worth Star-Telegram)
1:55 P.M. CST -- One report states that the Orioles are dangling 24-year-old outfielder Felix Pie as bait in a potential Kevin Millwood deal; another report suggests that the Rangers were interested in Orioles right-hander Chris Tillman but were instead being offered David Hernandez and Brandon Erbe, with the end result being that the Orioles-Rangers connection has "cooled off" (John Perrotto, Baseball Prospectus; T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
1:40 P.M. CST -- The Diamondbacks -- who just completed a three-way blockbuster trade in which they seem to have downgraded talent-wise -- proposed dealing catcher Chris Snyder for left-hander C.J. Wilson; not surprisingly, they were rebuffed (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
7:30 A.M. CST -- Trade discussions between the Rangers and Orioles appear to be heating up beyond mere exchanging of pleasantries, as Baltimore "may be getting closer" to acquiring veteran right-hander Kevin Millwood for a "second-level pitching prospect"; the quality of the prospect would be contingent upon how much of Millwood's $12 million salary the Rangers elected to subsidize (Peter Schmuck, Baltimore Sun)
[A big development, if true, and presumably (hopefully?) indicative of something bigger brewing in the Rangers' front office. You're not getting elite 22-year-old southpaw Brian Matusz without chipping in a significant quantity of additional talent (nor Jake Arrieta or Zach Britton), so don't even bother going there; instead, focus your attention more on the likes of right-handers Brandon Erbe -- who might also be out of range -- and Kam Mickolio, Luis Lebron and Steve Johnson, all three of whom recently earned 'C+' grades from prospect guru John Sickels.
Finding yourself underwhelmed by some of those names? I don't blame you, but after all of this posturing on the part of the front office suggesting that Millwood is highly valued and that there's no real impetus to move him, the only conclusion one can logically arrive at is that there's something else going on here. Understand that if some configuration of this proposed deal ultimately goes down, that $6-9 million of cost savings isn't just vanishing into Tom Hicks' luxuriously deep pockets; it's going to be applied towards something, or saved to be deployed later this winter. Stay tuned.]
6:50 A.M. CST -- Free agent right-hander Brad Penny has agreed to terms with the Cardinals on a one-year, $7.5 million contract with an additional $1.5 million in performance bonuses (Buster Olney, ESPN.com)
[A higher base salary than one would have expected Penny to snag, and one that could set the benchmark higher for the likes of Rich Harden and Ben Sheets than the Rangers might have hoped.]
Early Morning Quick Hits: Missed all of the Day One boredom excitement? Click here for an extensive, play-by-play recap ... According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, the Rangers have inquired into the availability of Padres right-hander Heath Bell, but are unlikely to swing a deal due to the poor wants-and-needs match between the clubs ... Per MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, the Diamondbacks "would like nothing more than to get their hands on Derek Holland or Neftali Feliz," but Texas isn't going there.


Joey Matschulat
Reader Comments (20)
The Millwood rumors don't make any sense to me unless the team has a handshake agreement in place with Sheets or Harden. Losing 180+ innings, veteran leadership and the draft picks that would come back next year in exchange for one more B prospect to toss onto the pile with Kiker, Poveda, Beavan, Main, Gomez, Font, etc, etc, etc doesn't move my needle.
Unless is purely a salary dump to make room for Sheets.
First, Millwood - I don't know if this news is any indication of something "big" brewing in the distance, or if it's just the same old Rangers-must-cut-costs mantra we've heard the last 3 years. I guess they could turn around and give his 6 mil to Sheets, but who knows?
Texas does have a lot of room to deal prospects for mlb-ready players. Some interesting names bandied around by Newberg today were Doumit, Pierre, and Capps - in addition to Lindstrom (sp?) I think now that Pudge's gone & there is so much uncertainty about Salty, Texas almost has to go out and get another catcher. From what I can remember, Doumit is a pretty decent hitter, and average defensively. Not sure why they'd want Pierre if they are trying to save money, although he is a good leadoff guy. Capps might be a good guy to get - it really does seem like they are going to put Feliz in the rotation and try to find a closer somewhere via trade.
And speaking of Feliz - DUH Arizona - I think every single team would like nothing more than to "get their hands on" Feliz or Holland.
"The Millwood rumors don't make any sense to me unless the team has a handshake agreement in place with Sheets or Harden."
And, of course, Harden really has no motivation to sign at this point, while Sheets is apparently not even throwing off a mound yet, so I don't see why either of those would be the case. The Millwood-to-Baltimore discussion seems to be cooling, though, and I find it rather interesting that Erbe/Hernandez didn't do much for the Rangers, since that's a rather respectable offer. Perhaps the thought is that they can do better.
That Feliz + Smoak for Johnson rumor is crazy talk. Why is it okay for people to just make stuff up when it comes to trade rumors in MLB? It's only getting worse each year, too.
Joey, please note, Wilson didn't say a Rangers official, just an official.
I do the Feliz/Smoak for Johnson deal, in a heartbeat. Given the normal MO of the Marlins I'm surprised they wouldn't. If true, the proposal and the response to it says to me that both teams consider themselves in the hunt for 010.
Weigh in JM?
Senor Stephens: Feliz straight up for Johnson = okay. Feliz + a "B" prospect for Johnson = okay. Feliz + Smoak for Johnson? Hell no. They'd have to give back Uggla too for that deal, IMO, and I'd rather have Feliz & Smoak then Uggla & Johnson.
If Feliz and Smoak are in the deal together I want Grenke.
Feliz, Smoak, McCarthy, Sheppers and Arias for Grenke anyone? Big hit big return
Johnson is a bonafide top of the rotation horse, a true #1. With close to 500 major league innings under his belt, @ 25 years old and coming into his prime, he is of the most valuable commodity in baseball.
Feliz/Smoak are prospects. Talented, exciting, valuable prospects. But prospects nonetheless.
That proposed trade, if true is quality for quality. I doubt that the Marlins could do better but they shouldn't/wouldn't settle for less.
Kids in candy store... that all we are!
Why in the world would the Rangers even CONSIDER dangling Feliz and Smoak for Johnson? Unless JD knows something we don't, how exactly would we go about paying this kid the $20M-$23M a year that he's GOING TO GET in FA? And why in the WORLD would he EVER want to pitch here...? This would amount to nothing more than a 2 yr rental on a very nice player... but it would damage the long term plans of contending each yr for the next 10 yrs
Meanwhile Smoak is battling for NL MVP and Feliz is setting the single season save record..
Let me just say it like this - if JD would have made that trade, I would have finally, after 25 years, officially and forever hung up my Rangers hat and gone over to another team. That would have been an absolutely MENTAL trade to make, considering these guys ages, years of service, and the unlikelihood that Johnson would be extended. I would love to get Johnson, but not at the expense of perhaps the most exciting Rangers arm we've ever seen save Nolan Ryan. And Smoak to boot? No way.
It is being reported in other places that the Rangers have Elin Woods a contract. They think she could become a very good Designated Hitter
"I do the Feliz/Smoak for Johnson deal, in a heartbeat. Given the normal MO of the Marlins I'm surprised they wouldn't. If true, the proposal and the response to it says to me that both teams consider themselves in the hunt for 010.
Weigh in JM?"
I probably don't do that deal, but it merits more thought than the immediate "Absolutely not!" dismissals it seemed to have been getting -- that is, before it was thoroughly debunked. Even though that specific deal isn't going to be going down, however, it makes for a nice re-entry point into the whole should-Texas-be-trading-for-an-ace debate.
I know that the rumor mill is an extremely fickle beast and that reading anything into rumors is a fool's game, but reading a little bit into the rumors and the ideas that have been presented in the last few weeks, it seems like Texas would like to move Millwood/McCarthy for prospects/payroll room and roll into Opening Day with a starting rotation comprising Harden or Sheets/Feldman/Holland/Hunter/Wilson, with something like Rapada/Oliver occupying the left-handed relief spots. Pretty risky, but that's a very potent rotation with premium-grade pitchers. Am I totally off base here?
JM
Reading the tea leaves, I think your analysis is right on target. I get the sense that Ryan/Daniels are are acknowledging that how far one gets with Millwood as your TORP is known, and it's not quite enough. Hence, roll the dice a bit on the premise that a.) a big year from a Harden/Sheets type at the top extends your season, while their failure to meet expectations leaves you pretty much where you would have been with Millwood, b.) should you make the playoffs a Sheets/Harden type at the top enhances the ability for success.
I like Cantu, he was on my list early on, but here's a new name to consider, Rob Quinlan. Very useful guy who can do multiple things and is likely pretty affordable, Mark DeRosa lite.
I have 2 issues with this speculation regarding Sheets/Harden and Darren Oliver; I read yesterday that Sheets isn't even throwing yet and his agent refuses to provide med reports. That has to be a bad sign.
I like Harden alot... I'm ok with that thought stream.
I do NOT understand the whole Darren Oliver infatuation. Good Lord, isn't he like 45 by now...? And I remember that everytime he came out of the pen last year for the Angels (vs. the Rangers), I got a big smile on my face knowing we could mash him around.
I just don't get it
Guess that's why I'm not GM... huh?
I really like the McCarthy for Cantu discussion. Hope that one works out.
Joey - Where is Feliz in your proposed rotation? I would think he's got more of a chance than CJ does to start the season...well... starting. Right?
To me, losing Millwood and/or McCarthy would not be a big deal. How much can you really count on those guys anyway? You know they will both miss a lot of the season with injuries. So if they can get a righty bat for one, and a young pitcher for the other - man I would. If they can save some money that enables them to sign Myers or Harden - then hell yeah.
Regarding Oliver, he's pretty good against lefties, which is what he would be brought in to do, right? So they could probably do worse.
I agree with Pablo that the Sheets situation hasn't seemed to change from last spring, where everything was secretive. Then it meant he was seriously injured - which required season-ending surgery. How are we to read what's going on now other than he's still not healthy?
LOL - so if you get Newberg's thing, he writes this morning that the Feliz/Smoak for Johnson offer is widely discussed as the most far-fetched and ludicrous rumor of the meetings so far, and hints that perhaps it was Florida who made the offer to Texas and not the other way around. Now THAT makes sense, actually.
I'm a loyal Newbergian of over 10 years but to say that the rumor is unfounded, then to assign attribution of same is incongruous.
"Joey - Where is Feliz in your proposed rotation? I would think he's got more of a chance than CJ does to start the season...well... starting. Right?"
No. 6 or No. 7 starter. I probably think long and hard about starting him off at OKC, or in some sort of major league relief arrangement where he can be readily redirected into a starting capacity with a bit of stretching out. Regarding Neftali's/CJ's starting chances, I'm not so sure that CJ doesn't have the better chance of cracking the Opening Day rotation as things currently stand.