Frankie Piliere Discusses The Texas Rangers
Is Julio Borbon destined to enjoy a breakout campaign in 2010?Frankie Piliere was kind enough to stop by and discuss a number of issues related to the Texas Rangers organization. Frankie is currently the in-house professional scout for FanHouse. In previous years, Frankie has been a scout for the Texas Rangers and an author for the outstanding, though short-lived, SaberScouting.com
Question #1: After a great rookie season in 2008 when he OPS'd .880, Chris Davis (and many Rangers fans) suffered through his brutal sophomore campaign in 2009. You mentioned in a recent chat at FanHouse that you expect Davis to have a big year in 2010. Why do you expect Davis to rebound and do you think he will be as productive in 2010 as he was in 2008?
Frankie: I'm just of the opinion that what everyone saw and liked about Davis, and other young players who struggle, doesn't just vanish. Baseball really is a game of adjustments and I think he has the ability to adjust to the way he was pitched in 2009. We know the physical skills are there and I think the organization believes in this guy enough to believe he will adjust. And, yes I think he will be far more productive in 2010.
Question #2: In the same chat, you mentioned that you really like Julio Borbon. Will he be the Rangers' starting center fielder in 2010? What can we expect of his bat and his defense?
Frankie: I'm a big Borbon believer. I'm not sure exactly what their plans are for him but I think he can certainly handle the starting job. He saw a lot of fastballs in 2009 so expect them to try to change speeds more at the start of next season. So, he probably will have his problems early on, but I think he can put up a solid average and cause some real problems on the bases.
Question #3: Prior to the 2008 draft, you were very bullish on Justin Smoak and predicted that he would move quickly through the minor leagues. Has anything happened in the past 18 months to change your opinion of the Rangers' top position prospect? If he gets the opportunity, do you expect Smoak to be a productive major league hitter in 2010, or is he more likely to struggle in his first season against big league pitchers?
Frankie: I'm still very high on Smoak, and I think the organization still is as well. I could see him righting the ship in Triple-A [Oklahoma City] and coming up late in the season. I just have a lot of faith in his smarts as a player He's a smart hitter who knows how to adjust. That's why he's better than just his raw skills.
Question #4: You recently posted your list of the top 50 free agents in Major League Baseball. The Rangers' offseason wish list includes a right-handed power hitter, a utility infielder and a veteran pitcher. Assuming you could add only $10-12 million in salary for 2010, what players would you target to fill those needs if you were the Rangers front office?
Frankie: I'm not so sure they'll do much in terms of going out to land a free agent. From what I understand, it will hinge on whether they can unload some payroll. There's not a lot of guys out there I find particularly enticing aside from the guys that will command big contracts like [John] Lackey. I don't think I'd go out of my way to chase guys on the free agent market.
Question #5: Were you involved in the scouting that resulted in the trade of Gerald Laird for Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo following the 2008 season? Can you comment on the players that you evaluated and why Moscoso and Melo were ultimately the players who were selected?
Frankie: The players that ended up in the deal were not guys I had evaluated. But with talks like that, I was asked about a number of players I had seen before the two sides eventually settled on those two players. For any trade, there are a lot of names kicked around. So, I was asked to talk some more about the Tigers' prospects I had scouted and what I thought of them. And I'm sure the same was done for the guys who scouted Moscoso and Melo. It's an interesting process. It shows that a lot of discussion and thought is put into these names. Given the process that goes into figuring out what prospects to get back, I imagine it came down to a consensus of what the evaluating scouts thought and how they'd fit in the system.
Question #6: Baseball America can’t seem to mention Martin Perez without comparing him to Johan Santana, but I have a hard time with the comparison given that Santana is a fly ball pitcher and Perez is a ground ball pitcher. Do you have a better comp for Perez? How soon should we expect to see the left-hander in Arlington?
Frankie: I can see where the comparison comes from in terms of delivery, velocity and demeanor, butI think they're quite different in a lot of ways. Perez has a superior breaking ball, as opposed to Santana going to the change-up as his big pitch. When it comes to comparisons (and this is a good thing), it's pretty hard to find a comparable lefty. I think he's closer to a guy like Jon Lester in terms of his arsenal, but I don't think Santana is that far off. Just a big difference in the change-up and their go-to strikeout pitch.
Question #7: Speaking of ground ball rates, how much emphasis do you place on a pitching prospect's ability to induce ground balls?
Frankie: Good question. I like to know the background of a guy before I see him, and I look at these rates. When I see a pitcher, I want to be able to answer questions in my mind. If he is inducing ground balls, why is that? Sometimes these numbers can lie a little bit. I do think it's very important though. I've seen a lot of fly ball pitchers in the low levels not translate well in the upper levels. It comes down to the quality of swings. Usually the ground ball pitchers are not having quality swings taken off of them and that is what I look for. So, there is definitely a correlation between good stuff, producing those weak swings, and ground ball rates.
Question #8: For various reasons, Max Ramirez, Neil Ramirez, Michael Main, Tim Murphy, and Engel Beltre all had disappointing seasons in 2009. Among those five, who do you expect to return to prominence in 2010?
Frankie: Tough question, but I think Max Ramirez is too talented a hitter to be kept down. I'd expect him to be better in 2010.
Question #9: What players in the Rangers' minor league system are most likely to break out in 2010?
Frankie: Well, whether this answers the question or not I'm not sure, but the organization absolutely loves Jurickson Profar, their big international signing. I think they expect he'll be an instant success, so look for him to have a big year at one of the short-season affiliates.
Question #10: The Rule 5 draft is rapidly approaching and the Yankees have several pitchers who appear likely to be selected (Kevin Whelan, Grant Duff, and Zack Kroenke). Given your familiarity with the Yankees system, can you speculate on how likely those three are to stick in a team’s bullpen in 2010?
Frankie: Duff does really have fantastic stuff and his velocity spiked this year. Teams stockpile big arms so I can see teams taking a good look at him. He might have the best chance to stick of the three. Kroenke isn't a guy with electric stuff, so it might be harder for him to stick even though I do think he's got a solid big league career ahead of him.
Question #11 (from t ball): We've heard about the Rangers reorganizing and integrating their scouting department over the last couple of years. Could you expound on what they've done and how it improves talent evaluation and acquisiton?
Frankie: Well, I worked in the pro scouting department and there was a lot of emphasis there. I know that much. They are as prepared as anyone in terms of pro scouting and knowing every prospect out there in other clubs' systems. I think there has been a tremendous focus on developing a good file of scouting reports on players each year. I don't think many other clubs out there are as dedicated and as good at focusing on scouting these players in the early stages of their careers. That's why they've been so good at getting good hauls of talent like they did in the [Mark] Teixeira deal.
Question #12 (from Pabloesque): Realistically speaking, how many of the 20-some-odd Rangers pitching prospects (Martin Perez, Michael Main, Blake Beavan, Kasey Kiker, Wilfredo Boscan,Evan Reed, Omar Poveda, Carlos Melo, Tanner Scheppers, Robbie Ross, etc.) can we expect to one day be MLB contributors, either with the Rangers or another team? In other words, what is the "washout" percentage and as fans, can we realistically expect to continue having so many impact rookies year in and year out as we had this past year?
Frankie: The percentage is always going to be low. Unfortunately, that's the nature of player development, but also the challenge and beauty of scouting for talent. I think the Rangers will get some more impact performances this year because they are just that deep right now.
Question #13 (from Rooster): As a scout, what are some things you did to balance what your eyes saw with what performance measures said about prospects, meaning when would you lean more heavily on one rather than the other and were there any performance measures that you favored?
Frankie: Interesting question. Like I said earlier, I do like having the performance measures on hand to help me answer questions about a player. I try not to have them influence my evaluation as I'm doing it, but they help me look for things. If he's striking out a lot, well, why is that happening? I can look closer and see if it's a solvable issue or if it's something to be concerned about. If someone has an extreme stat one way or the other, there is something behind it. Sometimes it's meaningful and sometimes it isn't. If a player strikes out a lot because he's patient, that's much less of a concern to me than if he's not recognizing a breaking ball or something like that.
Question #14 (from Michael Gleason): In light of the interesting little fact that one year's California lettuce crop sells for more money than all that from the entire haul of gold during the California Gold Rush, would you compare the process of scouting more with diamond-mining (occasionally finding a priceless diamond in the rough), gold-mining (finding a good vein, and mining it until it's used up), or lettuce-farming (finding good soil, and working your tail off at cultivating a large number of players in as healthy an environment as possible)?
Frankie: I must say, those analogies are interesting. I think you go with bulk, though, and that's the lettuce farming If you get talents you can mold, and you have the people in the organization to get the most out of them, that's your best chance. And that one diamond will find it's way through on its own. You take your chances with large numbers of players and getting as many talents into the organization as you can. If you do that and know how to develop players, you get a long pipeline of talent.
Thanks to Frankie for taking the time to offer his insights on the Texas Rangers. If you want to keep tabs on the excellent baseball work that Frankie is doing, you can check in at FanHouse, or follow him on Twitter.
9 Comments | in Analysis, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (9)
Frankie, Thanks for the Q&A. Great stuff. It provides a little salve to the wounds from this offseason of non-activity and ownership turmoil.
Thanks for your time Frankie. I'm glad somebody else thinks Chris Davis will rebound well.
Hope you guys enjoyed the Q&A. Since I started working with Texas, I really enjoyed reading this site so I was happy to help out.
FP
It was an honor and a pleasure. We look forward to your ongoing insights whenever you can lend them! Cheers!
Great questions and terrific, insightful answers. Deserves more than a handful of comments. Thanks JM and Mr. Piliere.
Great stuff. Finally, someone else who is skeptical of Smoak at the moment. I hope CD rebounds too.
That didn't sound sceptical to me! I don't believe anyone thinks he's gonna be the first baseman in 2010.
That was a great read, Frankie, come back often, please.
"Great questions and terrific, insightful answers. Deserves more than a handful of comments. Thanks JM and Mr. Piliere."
That's all David. He's an absolute machine.
Great interview, Frankie.