Considering The 2010 Mariners Pitching
DavidThe Mariners have made a lot of noise this offseason with the additions of Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, and Brandon League. Coming off an 85-77 season, there are reasons to be concerned about the team from Seattle entering the 2010 season (though it is worth noting that the M's scored 52 fewer runs than they gave up in 2009, suggesting that their record should have been 75-87).
Blogger Derek Zumsteg at USS Mariner presented his thoughts on the Mariners' 2010 roster here. As I did with the Rangers' pitching for the coming season, I used the 2010 player projections from CHONE and Bill James to estimate the ERA for the Mariners pitching staff next season. Listed below are the average projected 2010 ERAs for each of the Mariners' pitchers from Derek's list:
Starting Rotation
Felix Hernandez - 3.35
Cliff Lee - 3.64
Ryan Rowland-Smith - 4.05
Ian Snell - 4.44
Doug Fister - 4.87
Bullpen
David Aardsma - 3.73
Brandon League - 3.93
Mark Lowe - 3.96
Luke French - 4.86
Jason Vargas - 4.73
Garrett Olson - 4.83
Shawn Kelley - 3.73
If Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee both pitch 225 innings; the other three starters average 160 innings; Aardsma, League, and Lowe each average 80 innings; and the remaining relievers all average 60 innings, then the projected ERA for the Mariners' predicted pitching staff is 4.08. Unlike the Rangers (whose projected staff ERA for 2010 is 4.18), the Mariners do not have much pitching to fall back on if injuries strike. Derek suggests that Yusmiero Petit, Sean White, and Rule 5 draftee Kanekoa Texeira are most likely next in line should the Mariners staff have problems.
In addition, the Mariners' offense has not been particularly potent the past five years, averaging 712 runs scored per season, including 671 and 640 in 2008 and 2009, respectively. While it is possible, perhaps even likely, that Figgins and Bradley will improve the M's offense, it does not appear particularly likely that the team will score more than 750 runs in 2010. Assuming the pitching staff does put up a 4.08 ERA and their defense gives up 60 unearned runs, then the Mariners are projected to give up 721 runs. The team's projected win-loss record with 750 runs for and 721 runs against would be 84-78.
Reader Comments (9)
Hex! A hex I say on the M's!
Also, with the departure of Beltre and his bat (while not as potent as Figgins) does lessen the impact the Figgins signing. Bradley is still a big addition (if healthy) but it's not like their hitters are going to be world beaters. Their pitchers on the other hand, scare the **** out of me.
I'd rather consider the Rangers hot stove.
Their pitchers on the other hand...... are going to be trouble for us..
BUT our unknowns may show up... we dont really know what to expect....
the Rangers will be in the mix.... for sure..
even with Wash...
Theoretically, should be a lot of 3-2 games betweeen the Rangers and Mariners. My fingernails don't have a chance.
I like what the Mariners are doing, and you have to hand it to them for making these bold moves to improve their club. That being said, it's all a gamble - and what looks good on paper doesn't always work itself out to wins on the field. So we'll have to wait and see.
I'm pretty confident that JD isn't finished yet, either, and that Texas has at least 1 good impact move to make on offense.
As was the case with the Rangers, the Mariners' pitching will perform better than this. Unfotunately, the Seattle D is even better than our own. Last year, in fact they were absurdly good.
I agree that the Mariners have made some nice moves this offseason. But other than Felix Hernandez and perhaps Cliff Lee, is there anyone on their pitching staff who concerns you? Their other three starters are league average at-best. Mark Lowe and Brandon League are interesting arms, but no one else in their bullpen looks to be more than league average arms. Seattle's defense will likely allow the team to outperform its pythagorean, but I don't see how this team can win 90 without bringing in an offensive force to place 1st base. And they don't have a lot left that they can use in trade.
Seattle a;so has dome age various positions. With age come nagging injuries. What happens if Ichiro pulls a hamstring that takes 3 months to heal?
Additionally as was said above they haven't got much to give. If it comes down to a trade at the deadline, who could make one the Ranger's or the M's?