Report: Rangers Close To Signing Darren Oliver ... Again
According to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick, the Texas Rangers are closing in on a [one-year] contract with free agent left-hander Darren Oliver that could be hammered out sometime early this week. Surprising? Kinda. Wholly unexpected? Not really.
Oliver had already captured the Rangers' interest to such a degree that they had been identified as one of his most aggressive suitors as early as December 8th, and yet it didn't really appear that there would be strong motivation on the organization's part to further drain its limited pool of resources by acquiring a "luxury piece" (that is to say, a player who doesn't really address an urgent need). That assumption obviously didn't hit the mark, and it now seems that Texas will be locking in Oliver with something north of $3 million, which is at least preferable to the $12 million that he netted from Texas in 2000-2001 in exchange for 260 innings of replacement-level pitching.
[Monday, 2:00 P.M. CST Update: Crasnick is now reporting that said one-year contract would guarantee Oliver $3.5 million in 2010 and include a vesting option for 2011 that could expand the deal into a two-year, $6.25 million commitment. Should that vesting option ultimately kick in, Oliver will be right around his 41st birthday by the end of the 2011 season.]
There are three possible ways in which this impending signing could affect his lefty-throwing counterparts in C.J. Wilson, Clay Rapada and Ben Snyder: (a) Oliver and Wilson could land in the Opening Day bullpen, with Rapada or Snyder possibly getting a shot but more likely being dismissed, (b) Oliver could supplant Wilson as the Rangers' premier left-handed reliever, with one of Rapada/Synder sticking and C.J. breaking into the starting rotation, or (c) Wilson being dangled as trade bait, which could conceivably be used to address that pressing need for another adequate bat. The safe money is probably on 'B' or 'C.'
With regard to the signing itself, it's reasonable enough in a vaccum, but the Rangers don't operate in a vaccum, and much of the apprehension arising from this signing seems to be a product of the money involved, paired with the reality that Texas probably didn't have all that much to spend before the signing and now has even less to spend afterwards. If it's not part of a master plan, it's going to look a bit more odd, but given Jon Daniels' recently demonstrated propensity for making creative, multi-step moves, perhaps it's premature to isolate this signing and slap a label on it without knowing whether there's another shoe that's about to drop.
And what of Oliver? Well, he pretty much is what he is at this point -- a veteran left-hander who has been pretty good (but not great) since being repositioned as a reliever in 2006, equipped with a high-80s fastball and a high-70s "slurve" which appears to give opposing batters some fair-sized problems. It's not likely that he's going to spontaneously fall apart in 2010, but at the same time, one would be prudent in tempering their Oliver-specific expectations a bit, for there are a few key statistical indicators (strikeout rate, home run-to-fly ball ratio, exceptional performance within the pitcher-friendly confines of Angel Stadium) that suggest he's not a great bet to replicate his superb 2009 relief campaign in Texas.
24 Comments | in Analysis, NEWSFLASH, Rumors, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (24)
(Late-to-the-party congratulations, Joey!)
The other thing this move could be setting up is a major trade. CJ's value is very high right now. If DO's coming makes CJ's going survivable, and CJ can bring us the bat we need, in the person of someone who saves us a roster spot by covering all UIF (including SS) and yet is good enough to DH or play OF vs lefties... to allow us to carry a 13th pitcher-- a Snyder or a Mendoza, whom we would otherwise lose to free agency, ... then using our last 3million to add this excellent, influential LHP to an already overcrowded bullpen will prove to have been very wise.
For example (just as "I'd kill to win the Nobel Peace Prize, and I'd give my right arm to be ambidexterous"), I think KC would kill-- or at least give their right arm-- to add a solid lefty to their bullpen. Furthermore, as they let Coco Crisp go to Oakland, they get nervous about their outfield vs RHP.
Have I mentioned Callaspo?...
If CJ and Murph (plus German & Gentry for KC's security) could net us Callaspo & Meier (and maybe a solid but distant prospect), then this pitcher's signing with our last hitter dollars will prove to have been brilliant.
I am glad I am not the only one to see the rangers pushing for CJ in the rotation. I like the idea too.
I think this is a good deal in a vacuum. Oliver makes this team better. In fact, a bullpen of Francisco, Wilson, O'Day, Oliver, Nippert, Ray, and Snyder/Mathis/Feliz/Rapada/Geary is pretty tremendous.
And I think it gives the team some flexibility and depth since we could move Wilson and/or Feliz to the rotation long-term.
But I still don't feel like we can judge this move until we know how it affects our pursuit of a hitter. If signing Oliver prevents us from signing Guerrero or trading for another hitter, then I will be disappointed. Ideally, Daniels has a trade/FA acquisition lined up based on our limited budget to fill our DH spot. If we can somehow get an .850 caliber RH DH and Oliver with our budget constraints, then this is a great move.
I guess I'm missing something, Michael Gleason. Why do the Rangers want to trade for a second baseman? And one with no power, to boot?
I'm with you jd21, and on a hitter, maybe they are going to let Max have a shot...
I think with what Daniels has done lately, there is a plan in place. We can keep guessing or wait and see what happens next. I think I like CJ in the rotation alot better than I like him be trading for a right handed bat. He's still young and has shown that he can be a dominating pitcher.
If this goes down then somebody or somebodies will be traded. This sure looks like a move set something else up.
My guess would be Harrison, Hurly or McCarthy maybe two of those three and Max.
jd21 & BillyDP,
We'd all agree-- no?-- our greatest weakness last year was on base%; especially vs. LHP.
We have 4 OFs who can hit RHP, but only one OF who can hit LHP (unless we bring up Moreland or Boggs... then 2).
Overall last year:
Vladimir OBP .334 SLG .460 AVG .295 not bad as a whole for a 35 yr-old DH, emergency COF
Callaspo OBP .356 SLG .457 AVG .300 better, and for a 27 yr. old UIF/OF good enough (c .960 fielding %) to play anywhere, but not a good enough fielder to start over their new acquisition, Getz
And for the bat that we actually need (vs LHP, there's no comparison):
Vladimir OBP .276 SLG .410 AVG .250
Callaspo OBP .391 SLG .522 AVG .361
I'm all for taking a chance on Vlad's bouncing back if we trade Murphy, but right now, one of the 2 would be superfluous, and I'd rather have the one with knees, who can play the field, ...and run after hitting the ball.
Most importantly, Callaspo would cover 2 needs, (platooning at DH w/Murph, and backing up 3B, SS and 2B-- he's played all 3). His coming, though would make Tatis, Garko or Moreland (OFs who can hit LHP and play 1B) the more sensible "other piece"-- allowing us to carry the 13th P, e.g. Snyder , all year, rather than returning him to SF.
I like the Callaspo idea. Hadn't thought of him until I read the earlier post and looked up his stats. He would be very handy to have-can play a lot of spots and a decent enough hitter. I wonder what KC would want for him?
The Rangers made it clear that their off-season needs included a veteran situational lefty to replace Eddie. Let's not read anymore into it than that. A good solid move to bolster our biggest bullpen need.
Now we need to get back to our largest need, a right-handed power bat to protect Hammy. The back-up catcher and another veteran SP will come late in the off-season (read bargain basement).
Then we go to Spring Training, favored to place third in the west. I like that, staying under the radar. Go solid pick-up JD.
Any way in hell Chuck green-lighted a few more off-season funds on the down-low?
Michael Gleason: Your explanation makes sense. I didn't understand that you were referring to him as a utility player. I also didn't know he could play some outfield. I wonder whether he would be content in that role, but if so, it's not a bad idea. Personally, I still wouldn't deal Wilson's stuff as part of that package, but that's a matter of opinion. Thanks for the thoughts.
Me 2, MG... well thought out... he beats no-knees..
I take a simpler view on this. The Rangers had two holes they wanted to fill: DH and lefty RP. They first went after their top DH target. That would leave their choices for lefty RP to be heavily influenced by how much money was burned in getting Lowell. That didn't turn out. Now their going after their top lefty RP target.
I'm certain JD is looking under every stone to improve the team, but I think we need to judge the deal on its face value rather than what's next. It's not at all clear that a next move is even feasible. Hopefully, a chat session will happen between now and ST so we can learn more.
As far as Callaspo... First, I'm not sure who Meier is, but I like Callaspo as a UIF. I have no desire to trade CJ for Callaspo, though.
Thanks Y'all--
There's a nice post on LSB (by Trip, AKA "No Name on Card" right?) whose conclusion I disagree with, but whose list itself basically proves JD is on the verge of a trade involving one of our relievers: I'd be shocked if it weren't one of our LHPs or experienced closers (CJ & FF), both of whom we have for only one more year guaranteed, right?
He reminds us that very few changes (e.g. the pre-Harden trade of Millwood) seem to make sense in mid-stream...
I've added "O.O." (for out-of-options) beside those we'll lose if we don't keep them on our 25-man (including Snyder, whom we'd actually lose by virtue of his Rule 5 status). Please correct me here if I'm wrong about -- or have skipped-- any on Trip's list:
"The Millwood trade "didn't make sense" either.
If Oliver signs, the Rangers will have 39 men on the roster, and I think like 30 of them are pitchers.
Guys who will be starting somewhere:
1. Rich Harden
2. Scott Feldman
3. Tommy Hunter
4. Derek Holland
5. Brandon McCarthy
6. Neftali Feliz
[ed. 7. Hurley]
Guys who will be in a bullpen somewhere:
1. Darren Oliver
2. Darren O’Day
3. Frank Francisco
4. Chris Ray
5. Ben Snyder..............................................[O.O.]
6. Zach Phillips
7. Clay Rapada (off the 40 right now)
8. Pedro Strop
9. Warner Madrigal
Guys who could be in either place:
1. C.J. Wilson
2. Matt Harrison
3. Guillermo Moscoso
4. Luis Mendoza...........................................[O.O.]
5. Dustin Nippert...........................................[O.O.]
6. Doug Mathis
7. Michael Kirkman
That’s 22 [ed 23] pitchers. Nearly enough for complete Major League and AAA pitching staffs. To think another move wouldn’t accompany this seems… foolish.
Searching for a way to predict injuries - TexasLeaguers.com
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 20, 2009 8:34 PM CST"
AJM proposes on LSB that we trade for KC's (lefty mashing but fairly balanced) Billy Butler (who only makes sense to me if we trade Smoak or Davis (both potential righty-mashing, fairly RHP-imbalanced 1Bs). Why not trade for Callaspo, Maier AND Butler? This would truly be a blockbuster. It might take one more valuable (less disposable) piece, eg Scheppers instead of Kiker, but we match up well-- I'd deal:
Wilson & Kiker...............................................Butler
Davis & Inglett.......................for....................Callaspo
Murphy & Gentry...........................................Meier
Michael Gleason, listing Alberto Callaspo as a potential outfielder is a bit of a stretch...he has played a grand total of part of one game at outfield, and that was in the minors in 2006. I've seen him play a fair amount, and while I realize he has an "acceptable" fielding percentage as a second baseman, he has terrible range and was rated as one of the worse second baseman in the majors both by UZR and Plus/Minus.
As for Butler, why would the Royals trade a 23 year old pre-arb player with that much promise, especially for Wilson who will cost them way more money? It makes no sense. Trades have to work both ways.
I would love to have Butler, but I would also love to have Braun, Agon, Kemp or Ethier, Cabrera, etc. Don't think any of those are gonna happen. Now, if you extend it to include Cruz, Hamilton, Kinsler, Feliz or Holland maybe. Not sure I want to part with any of those guys, though.
Thanks, geo-- Was wondering about his range-- but I don't see us needing our UIF or 5th (or 6th?) OF very regularly, so if that's why he's available and might come cheaper, then all the better.
As for Butler, I don't have a sense of why AJM suggested it, but once he did, it got me reading & realizing he's not only getting better by the month... he's already whom we hope Smoak becomes.
If he's that valuable, then including Smoak would make sense for us from the perspective that he's ready now, and for the Royals in that-- If they're willing to step back a year or 2 in 1B development, they get a Butler Junior plus a very desirable pair of pitchers.
I'm new to the Butler musings, but a smaller version of the trade (eg Wilson, Mendoza, Inglett, Gentry for Callaspo & Maier) still fills 2 needs without creating any holes or depleting the farm, and it sets us up to save a pitcher from loss to free agency.
I like the talk about trading for Butler, BUT Moore isn't going to trade him for prospects. The have 3 more years of Greinke. He'll want an impact ML player to move Butler. CJ probably isn't that player. CJ + Smoak is interesting from my perspective, but I wouldn't do that if I were Moore. Buter, though, doesn't fit the "leader" profile that Levin mentioned today on XM.
The point about having so many pitchers without options is similar to mine about having too many prospects going that will need to go onto the 40 man roster.
JD is going to make a trade, almost has to or the Rangers will lose lots of talent to the waver wire, Free Agency or rule 5 drafts.
If they wait on this then teams will not trade because they can pick the guy up as a free agent or off wavers.
By the way, Trip, I don't disagree with your (above) conclusion afterall. I had read it wrong the first time, thinking you were calling the DO acquisition foolish. Upon re-reading it I think you & Cliff are right: there's simply no way JD fails to see what a waste it would be to lose so many off the 25-man now and the 40-man next year. He already proved that in the trade for Gutierrez. I'll be surprised if we don't see a deal involving Wilson or Francisco by Friday (Royals, Marlins, Rockies...?)
I also hope we trade for the Orioles 3rd stringer in AAA, Chad Moeller.
I HATE this signing and I think JD and co will regret it by the All Star break. Grated, Oliver's numbers looked good last year but he's sketchy at best in Arlington.
For the 1st time in a long time, I think JD makes a mistake on this one...
I have also thought about Butler, who is finally coming into his own, and could conceivably put up monster numbers in Arlington. But I really don't think KC would make him available. At least that's what they've said.
Again, I have to say WHY would the Royals trade Butler? I see all sorts of "we'd like to have him" but no real answer to my question.