Rangers Prospect Prognostications: Most Likely To Surprise In 2010

Richard Alvarez - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasIt happens every summer. Sometimes in May, though more often in June or July, one or more players in the Texas Rangers' farm system emerge as legitimate prospects. 2004 was the summer of Kinsler. Edinson Volquez was the man in 2005. Eric Hurley emerged as a top 100 prospect in 2006. Chris Davis, Taylor Teagarden, and German Duran shot up the charts in 2007. Derek Holland blindsided us all in 2008, joining Neftali Feliz and Martin Perez in an upward climb to elite prospect status. Robbie Ross, Tomas Telis, Miguel Velazquez and Michael Kirkman all took turns in the spotlight in 2009. 

So who will be "the guy" in 2010? Part of the fun is that it is almost impossible to tell who will emerge from the pool of talented, but not yet proven players in the Rangers' system to stamp themselves as legitimate prospects.  Six players worth watching in 2010 are presented below.  

No. 1: RHP Richard Alvarez | DoB: 08/14/92 | 6' 2", 180 lb.
Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2008)

Stuff: Mid-80s fastball, above-average curveball with plus potential and potentially plus change-up

Year	Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	GB/FB
2009	Rk	41	5.49	1.488	9.2	0.2	4.2	7.7	0.9

● His stats don't jump out at you, but he held his own as a professional in the United States as a 16-year-old. He will likely pitch at short-season Spokane in 2010 as a 17-year-old and it is entirely possible that he will match what Martin Perez did at that age in the Northwest League (1.52 WHIIP, 7.7 K/9, 4.1 BB/9).

● If he can push his fastball velocity into the low-90s, Alvarez has a chance to be special with the outstanding command and promising secondary pitches that he already possesses.

● Ranked as the 12th-best prospect in the Arizona Rookie League by Baseball America: "Alvarez's 80 mph curveball is his best pitch and should add bite when he gets more arm strength. His change-up is also a potential plus pitch, and he throws it with good arm speed and deception. His fastball only sits at 86-87 mph, but he's able to retire batters by locating it effectively. As he grows and fills out, he could add another five miles per hour on his heater." (Connor Glassey, Baseball America)

No. 2: Robbie Erlin | DoB: 10/08/90 | 5' 11", 175 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 3rd Round

Stuff: 87-90 MPH fastball, 12-to-6 curveball, and developing change-up

Year	Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	GB/FB
2009	Rk	4	2.25	1.5	11.2	0	2.2	20.2	2.00

● The Rangers appear set on cornering the market in diminutive left-handed pitching prospects. The only reports from Erlin's professional career were generated from a game in which he pitched in a wind/rain storm in Arizona.

● MLB's pre-draft scouting report suggests that Erlin has the delivery and make-up required to develop into a solid pitcher: "Erlin was getting more and more buzz in Northern California as the spring wore on. He's not the biggest guy in the world, but with an outstanding delivery, good makeup and above-average command to go along with a fastball that touches 90 and a curve that can be a plus pitch, he's an intriguing high school lefty."

● Erlin seems more likely to begin 2010 in Spokane, but the Rangers might challenge him with a May assignment to the full-season South Atlantic League as they did with Blake Beavan in 2008 and Joe Wieland in 2009.

No. 3: Jose Monegro | DoB: 09/19/89 | 6' 3", 200 lb.
Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2007)

Stuff: Good command of a low-90s fastball with movement, developing curveball and change-up

Year	Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	GB/FB
2009	Rk	32.1	2.51	1.175	8.6	0.6	1.9	13.9	1.22

● A 13.1 K/9 and a batting average against (BAA) of .242 tell you that Monegro has quality stuff. His 1.9 BB/9 suggests that he can control it. He produced those numbers as a 19-year-old in his stateside debut in 2009. He was almost as good as an 18-year-old in the Dominican Summer League in 2008 (2.59 ERA, 10 K/9, 2,4 BB/9, .167 BAA).

● Jason Parks' brief scouting report: "Monegro makes his living with a big heavy fastball that usually sits in the low 90s with above-average movement. His secondary pitches improved throughout the '09 season, especially his big 12-to-6 slow curveball that has become a second strikeout pitch. He has flashed a decent change-up with good shape and tumble."

● Given how he dominated out of the bullpen in the rookie league, Monegro will likely either pitch out of the Low-A Hickory bullpen or the Spokane starting rotation in 2010. The decision to start or relieve will likely be based upon how Monegro's secondary pitches look in spring training.

No. 4: Leury Garcia | DoB: 03/18/91 | 5' 7", 153 lb.
Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2007)

Stuff: Switch-hitting shortstop with excellent athleticism and arm

Year	Level	PA	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	A	305	18	64	.231	.287	.286	.573
career		452	26	104	.225	.276	.284	.560

● Committed 42 errors while playing primarily shortstop in Hickory. His defense did show improvement, however, as his fielding percentage (88.4 percent) and plays per game (4.01) were better than they were in the Arizona Rookie League in 2008 (87.4 percent fielding percentage and 3.74 plays per game). 

● With the errors and a .573 OPS, it is easy to look at Garcia's second season in the Rangers system and assume that he is unlikely to develop into a compelling prospect. But it is worth noting that he spent the entire 2009 season as an 18-year-old competing in a full-season league with players who were mostly 2-4 years older. In addition, those who have seen him play rave about his physical ability (see below).

● "But scouts were laughing after a play that shortstop Leury Garcia made in the fourth. A Mariners hitter shot a ground ball toward the hole that Garcia backhanded on the dead run and, without planting and without jumping and without really even turning, he fired a sidearm laser across his body that the Royals first baseman snared on one hop, getting the out.  The laughter from the scouts on Garcia's play seemed to say, "That's a top 10 prospect in a lot of systems. Sick depth." (Jamey Newberg at the 2009 Fall Instructional League)

● "[Garcia has] a plus-plus arm and plus-plus speed that translates into excellent range. He has earned the nickname "Furcalito", which gives you some idea of his tools. He's also a switch-hitter with some strength in his swing. Very interesting tool set." (Aaron Fitt, Baseball America)

● Guys with tools rarely live up to the hype, but when they do, the results can be spectacular. Fewer strikeouts, more walks, a bit more power, and more consistent defense will indicate that Garcia is converting tools to skills and potential to performance.

No. 5: Vin DiFazio | DoB: 05/15/86 | 6' 1", 215 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 12th Round

Stuff: Right-handed hitting catcher combines patience with power at the plate; scouting reports suggest that he is solid defensively with a strong, though he threw out just 28 percent of would-be base stealers in 2009 

Year	Level	PA	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	A-ss/A	288	41	49	.278	.417	.526	.943

● Travis Hafner. Ian Kinsler. Mitch Moreland. Every so often, a college hitter drafted in the later rounds proves to be much more than expected. Based on their debut performances, it appears that Vin Difazio is the most likely late-round draft pick from the Class of '09 to develop into a legitimate prospect. In addition to showing exceptional power in his debut season (12 doubles, one triple triple, 12 home runs in 230 at-bats), Difazio displayed an advanced approach at the plate by working 41 walks against 49 strikeouts.

● In 2005, Difazio followed a stellar freshman year at UConn where he hit .306/.421/.395 (including 16 walks against 21 strikeouts) by being named the top prospect in the Atlantic Collegiate League by Baseball America. Will Kimmey's thumbnail on Difazio included: "DiFazio paced the ACBL with 42 RBIs and ranked second in hits, runs, doubles and triples while batting .331/.407/.570. His defense behind the plate impressed just as much, especially his arm strength and sturdy frame (6-foot, 200 pounds)."

● Difazio was sidelined for much of the 2006-2008 seasons dealing with the effects of a viral nerve infection, but he returned to the college scene in 2009 with a .290/.423/.645 line in 140 at-bats for the University of Alabama before being drafted by the Rangers.

● Given his age and advanced bat, it appears likely that DiFazio will begin 2010 in Bakersfield where he will have the opportunity to put up another impressive hitting line.  A .400-plus OBP, .500-plus slugging percentage and reports of solid defense would be sufficient to get the catcher moving north on lists of Rangers prospects.

No. 6: Tommy Mendonca | DoB: 04/12/88 | 6' 1", 200 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 2nd Round

Stuff: Solid defense at third base.  Excellent power but contact issues

Year	Level	PA	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	A-ss/A+	241	10	78	.290	.343	.489	.832

● Despite striking out in 32 percent of his plate appearances, Mendonca had a very productive debut season.  He hit for average and power in Spokane (.309/.361/.537 in 205 plate appearances) and then struggled in 11 games following a promotion to the California League (.209/.261/.270).  Mendonca's numbers in Spokane benefited from a .434 batting average on ball in play (BABIP) that was far higher than his 17.1 percent line drive rate would have predicted.

● Baseball America rated Mendonca the 11th-best prospect in the Northwest League in 2009 and had the following to say: "While the ball jumps off Mendonca's bat, he does have issues making contact (66 strikeouts in 188 at-bats) and more experienced pitchers could exploit his overly aggressive approach (he drew just nine walks). His bat path is a little too deep and he drops his hands during his swing, causing him to get underneath a lot of fastballs. (On defense, Mendonca) has good instincts, a quick transfer and short throwing motion. His throws can get sloppy, as he sometimes drops down and flips the ball across the diamond."

● There are those who invoke the name of Chris Davis when discussing Mendonca. The stats from their times in Spokane don't exactly support that comparison as Davis struck out in only 23 percent of his at-bats to go along with an almost 10 percent walk rate (23 walks in 253 at-bats).

● Mendonca seems likely to begin 2010 as the starting third baseman at High-A Bakersfield. Reducing his strikeout rate to below 25 percent and increasing his walk rate to 8-10 percent while maintaining his power will indicate that Mendonca is making progress. The California League has a way of making power hitters look like stars, so it would not be surprising to see Mendonca get off to a hot start.

Comments

[Rob M.]

I really don't think the Rangers will know what they have in Mendonca until he gets to AA ball. A question: How does the K and BB rate in the Cal league compare to other leagues?

[Greenberg4Rangers]

Vin DiFazio is the one that intrigues me the most...good defense and a 900+OPS. If he can continue moving up through the ranks he might help the Rangers in about 2yrs. First time posting on this site, a good one by the way.

[david]

Rob - The strikeout and walk rates in 2009 were very similar for each of the A-level leagues where Rangers' prospects play: 9% BB and 20% SO in short season Spokane (NWL), 8% BB and 21% SO in Hickory (SAL), and 9% BB and 20% SO in Bakersfield (CAL). Strikeout rates in the Texas League (AA) were 16% in 2009, while the walk-rate was consistent with the lower level leagues at 9%.

Greenberg4Rangers - Thanks for posting. Would your first name happen to be Chuck?

[Michael Cave]

David,

I have heard from a few sources that Alvarez may not be as projectable as previous pitchers due to his size. I see that he is listed as 6-2 but some say he may be closer to 6-0. I realize it is not an exact science but are there any certain parameters that scouts look at it in terms of projectability. Is it just a combo of movement, size and age?

Also, I would like to add Edwin Escobar to your list. To me, he really looks strikingly similar to Martin Perez. Your thoughts? Appreciate your work!!

[rooster]

Are we to the point that we wouldn't be "surprised" to see Tomas Telis go nuts in Hickory next year?

I learned more about Monegro in this overview than anywhere else. I didn't realize how young he is, and I agree that he could suddenly put up a really nice year as a Spokane starter or even a second half Hickory starter.

I think David Perez should be on this list.

[CautiouslyOptimisticRangersFan]

Maybe I'm making this up, but wasnt there a pitcher we had somewhere last year who averaged some sick K numbers, like 18 SO/9 or something. It was against younger competition, I think in a Mexican league, but the numbers were still filthy. Forgot his name, maybe de los santos?? Does anybody else remember this or is it just me? Just curious about what his status is.

[Ross]

Miguel De Los Santos. He had Visa issues last March and couldn't get stateside so he spent all of last year in the Dominican if I'm not mistaken, and he pitched in relief. I think he was always in a hurry because he would just strike everyone out and go back to the dugout.

[david]

Michael -
Jason Parks mentioned yesterday that Alvarez is shorter than what is considered his official height. That certainly affects what I expect of him, though my expectations for adding velocity depend primarily upon what coaches and scouts were telling Baseball America during and after the Arizona Rookie League season. Alvarez recently turned 17 and it would not be surprising if he grew a little taller, gained some weight, and added a few MPH to his pitches. How much he adds will dictate how high his star rises in the next couple of years.

Though others disagree (including Baseball America), I think Edwin Escobar is a Top 20 prospect in the Rangers' system. I limited my surprises to players whom I considered to be outside the Rangers' Top 25. For what it is worth, I expect Escobar to have a great season in Spokane next year.

Rooster - I consider Telis to be a Top 15 prospect in the Rangers' system and thus ineligible for the "surprise" list. Telis will appear on an upcoming list that I am now finishing up. I'm anxious to see what David Perez does next year, but I don't have a good enough feel for him to know what he might do.

[Cliff Phelps]

Idle question about prospects. People talk about what Nolan Ryan means and meant to the Rangers but Charlie Hough seems to be forgotten. I think that Charlie Hough was just as important to the Rangers and was for many years, the Rangers pitching staff. I feel he made the rest of the staff better because he threw so slow that it would mess up the timing of the teams the Rangers faced. Anybody who would watch Hough throw one day and Ryan the next knows this is true

So, now that I've exposed my bias.

Do teams, ever look at knuckle ballers as prospects?

If a college pitcher throws a knuckle ball as their first pitch are they even drafted?

Lastly, why is a knuckle ball such a rare pitch?

[Jay]

I thought I heard many years ago on a Ranger broadcast that Hough had the second most wins in the American league during the decade of the 80's to Dave Stieb. I think he spent '80 and '81 with the Dodgers too.

[Cliff Phelps]

I think that if Hogh had played for the Yankees he's be in the HoF