On Kevin Millwood, Rich Harden And Loving The Strikeout Again
Joey Matschulat
Rich Harden fires a first-inning pitch against the Royals on Monday, March 30th.This is not a lengthy treatise on the virtues -- or lack thereof -- of Kevin Millwood, the budget-constrained machinations of Jon Daniels or even the top-flight talent that is Rich Harden ... but it just might get you to stop and think for a minute, nevertheless.
It was in September 2006 that former Baseball Prospectus managing partner Nate Silver first articulated the concept of "secret sauce," an amalgam of characteristics of good baseball teams which most strongly correlate with post-season success and all, not surprisingly, relate to run prevention: a power pitching staff (as measured by strikeout rate), a quality closer and a strong team defense.
Naturally, these same characteristics are all prime contributing factors to good teams being good in the first place; strikeouts, for example, are a key component in the fielding-independent ERA metrics which share such strong correlations with overall run prevention. Strikeouts are heavily regarded as one of the single biggest indicators -- if not the biggest -- of future success for a pitcher. Miss bats, and you're going to get your shot in the majors. Collect enough pitchers who miss bats, and you just might have something special on your hands.
For all of the confidence-infusing storylines which trailed Kevin Millwood during his four-year tenure in Texas (chiefly, the weight loss-intended kickboxing regimen and the Nolan Ryan-instilled conditioning program), the fact of the matter is that he was paid like a No. 1 starter and instead delivered exactly league-average performance over the life of his deal (100 ERA+), consuming approximately 190 innings per season but watching his peripherals erode in the process ... and yes, that includes his strikeout rate, which withered away to a career-worst mark of 14.5 percent.
And yet in spite of his peripheral struggles, Millwood, by virtue of his sub-4.00 ERA, became the media-anointed poster child for the purported success of the "pitch-to-contact" movement that was so readily espoused by the organization and vertically integrated throughout the system -- all the while ignoring that such a philosophy (a) isn't nearly as effective during the post-season, where you're generally pitted against elite-level competition, and (b) is heavily reliant on the continued maintenance of a very good defense, as well as (c) that Millwood was the beneficiary of inordinately good fortune on several fronts, both defense-wise and timing-wise (strand rate).
Meanwhile, the Rangers' team pitching strikeout rate landed with a thud in the league's bottom-five pile for a third consecutive season. Millwood certainly wasn't -- and still isn't -- a valueless entity, but it also seems apparent that he was no longer a good fit for a team that desperately needed to find some way to pair its younger and more strikeout-inclined talent with a major strikeout-boosting weapon in the vein of Javier Vazquez, Ben Sheets ... or Rich Harden, whose nigh-unsurpassed ability to miss bats has springboarded him into baseball's elite pitching fraternity alongside Tim Lincecum, Zach Greinke, Jon Lester and Justin Verlander.
From the first moment that the Millwood-for-Ray "salary dump" entered the public's consciousness, it was patently clear that the trade was a gateway move towards something much bigger -- something designed to elevate the team's 2010 ceiling and give the Rangers the chance to legitimately compete that they probably wouldn't have had otherwise. The injury risk with Harden might be anything but immaterial (the safe over/under for innings pitched by Harden is probably around 140), but the greatest and most inexcusable risk of all would have entailed the Rangers throwing up their hands, exclaiming "Oh well!" and watching helplessly as financial inflexibility wrecked their 2010 campaign.
In a certain sense, this also seems to signal a much-needed shift towards the right on the contact-strikeouts continuum, and the Rangers' seeming persistence in pursuing left-handed relief options suggests that another rightwards shift could be coming if/when C.J. Wilson gets his long-awaited second crack at the starting rotation.
Harden-Feldman-Holland-Hunter-Wilson is a potent, albeit high-variance array of talent, featuring elements of velocity, craftiness and unpredictability and the always-welcome left-handedness, and divesting no additional pitchers leaves a very respectable McCarthy-Nippert-Feliz trio waiting in the wings for depth purposes, conceivably positioning the Rangers to further enhance their run prevention even if the defense regresses to some extent.
That's the sort of pitching staff that can inflict serious damage before, during and after Game 162.
[Additional Reading: "On Rich Harden, Kevin Millwood, Chris Ray, and the Rangers" (Adam J. Morris); "Millwood out; Harden, Ray, Snyder in" (Jamey Newberg); "On Millwood" (Scott Lucas)]
Reader Comments (24)
Thanks, Joey.
Moscoso, too, has historically missed more bats than most Ranger pitchers, no? How'd he do in that dept. last year?
As for the entire week, it helps me get things in perspective (comparing apples to apples) if I revise history a bit. I know the following headlines are not true (they leave out Baltimore for simplicity's sake) but, for the sake of quick gut reaction and clear comparison, since the results FOR US are true, see if they work similarly for y'all:
"Rangers quietly improve on Andruw Jones' Average, Positional flexibility, and OBP by snagging UIF/OF bat for countering lefties, Joe Inglett."
"Red Sox swap $12-million-dollar veterans with Rangers, and then eat 6million for Rangers to take Lowell-- someone the Rangers needed more than Millwood."
"Rangers trade AAA DH/back-up Catcher, Ramirez for needed lefty specialist, Snyder, and Rays-coveted Ray, with the intention of flipping Ray for Major-League catcher, Navarro."
"Rangers finally sign a true ace with the $6 million they saved in dealing their false ace for their needed righty bat!"
Although the actual trades are all jumbled, the perspective helps me realize it's been perhaps the best week ever to be a Ranger fan, despite our owner's having handcuffed our GM!
He's Houdini!
THANK YOU, JD!
It's taken a year, but I'm used to the idea that the Rangers can pitch now. I love the Harden move, but all this optimism is starting to wear on me.
Our offense has got some serious work to do. If Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler don't figure out how to hit with some consistency again, this is all for naught. And if a 38 year old with a bad hip looks like a 38 year old with a bad hip? Well, my friends, JD is going to have to have plenty more hocus-pocus left in that bag.
Maybe the new MGMT situation resolves itself and we are able to go out and find a bat mid-season. Maybe Josh rounds back into form, Nelson Cruz takes another step forward, Julio Burbon becomes Curtis Granderson, OH - and maybe our first baseman figures out how to make contact consistently! These things would be good if we want to win.
Trying not to get my hopes up but I CAN'T HELP IT!! Things are looking good!
Feliz would look nice in the rotation but I think he'd look even better as the closer. Francisco could be traded somewhere down the line for a legit bat.
“Strikeouts are heavily regarded as one of the single biggest indicators -- if not the biggest -- of future success for a pitcher.”
“And yet in spite of his peripheral struggles, Millwood, by virtue of his sub-4.00 ERA, became the media-anointed poster child for the purported success of the "pitch-to-contact" movement that was so readily espoused by the organization and vertically integrated throughout the system -- all the while ignoring that such a philosophy (a) isn't nearly as effective during the post-season, where you're generally pitted against elite-level competition, and (b) is heavily reliant on the continued maintenance of a very good defense, as well as (c) that Millwood was the beneficiary of inordinately good fortune on several fronts, both defense-wise and timing-wise (strand rate).”
“Meanwhile, the Rangers' team pitching strikeout rate landed with a thud in the league's bottom-five pile for a third consecutive season.”
Joey,
Thanks. You have clarified the Ranger pitching over the past several years.
I always sensed that the defense was a critical missing piece until last season when it emerged. Therefore I tended to credit the resurgence in pitching more to the defense rather then the pitchers themselves.
These are risky moves, but due to the recently developed organizational depth from building the minor league foundation the downside risk is significantly less then it would have been in prior years if these moves fail to produce due to injury.
Thanks for helping to better understand baseball in general and the Rangers in particular.
Great take, Joey.
I really like the balance and potential of a Harden-Feldman-Holland-Hunter-Wilson rotation in 2010. If they remain healthy, that group of five could rank among the Top 10 and perhaps the Top 5 rotations in baseball in strikeouts and ERA.
That starting rotation would also likely move Matt Harrison to the bullpen where he would be forced to be more aggressive - I think that could pay big dividends and perhaps pave the way for him to return as a much more effective starter at some time in the future.
One other thing worth noting - the Rangers essentially pitched without a left-handed reliever in 2009. Wilson was used as a setup man and closer with little regard to whom he was facing and Eddie Guardado was awful against left-handers. The Snyder and Rapada additions appear to be an acknowledgment that the team's bullpen needs to have at least one pitcher to whom Washington can turn when he needs to take care of a tough lefty or two.
I think that rotation (Harden, Feldman, Hunter, Holland, Wilson) is exactly what the Rangers are hoping to create. Signing Darren Oliver would be a nice step towards making that rotation a reality. And given Harden's propensity for injury, Wilson's inexperience in the rotation, and Hunter's fairly pedestrian peripherals, I have confidence that Feliz will manage to get 15 starts and log about 120 IP next season in various roles. That is probably best for him, so that he can be ready to take a full-time rotation spot in 2011.
I think the Rangers have to start the season with that rotation; it gives them the highest upside, and with ample pitching depth (Feliz, McCarthy, Nippert, Moscoso, Mathis) they have plenty of other options should anyone succumb to injury or inconsistency.
One more thought.
Ben Sheets is reportedly asking for crazy money which I seriously doubt that he will get.
Therefore, I suspect (hope) that the ownership resolves itself in time for the Rangers to make a serious run. I figure an offer structed like the Harden deal, $5 million base plus incentives, might be affordable to the new ownership and bring Ben on board.
With luck, the pitching could really be stout if the defense does not regress.
Now if the Ranger hitting could just get it's collective head around pitch recognition and OBP life cpuld be very good next season.
Whither Brandon McCarthy?
I am absolutely and completely flabbergasted that JD got all this done in a couple of days. What a haul! No money...no worries! If the Rangers make the playoffs next yr, it will probably be because all these moves worked out splendidly. Hopefully, Chris Ray gets back to where he used to be; or better yet, they flip him for Navarro. If that happens on top of all the other moves (can anyone explain to me how the Rays would make that trade without some substantial talent added in?), I cannot imagine the Rangers not winning at least several more games in '10 than they did this yr. How did we do this with no money and no loss of major talent? Not signing Byrd and Pudge saved them enough to do this, I guess.
Surely, it only worked out because Baltimore over-valued Millwood. Why agree to obligate $9M toward Millwood if Harden was available for less? What were they thinking? They must believe Ray couldn't contribute this yr at all, and wanted him off the payroll pretty badly.
Can the offense improve a bit despite losing Byrd's bat? Will putting CJ in the rotation hurt the pen too much? Can the catching situation not dissolve into a complete mess? Those aren't trivial questions, and a lot rides on those outcomes, let alone the health of guys like Harden, Hamilton, and Ray. Will this yr be a good one for Holland? Will Feliz dominate as the set-up guy, or maybe even as the closer? Will Borbon improve into an above average CF'er? Who will give the surprise performance of the yr for the Good Guys?
My guess is the pitching staff proves to be loaded from top to bottom, the defense is superb all yr, the offense rebounds nicely, and the Rangers win the West. It will certainly be fun to watch....Go Rangers!
These moves are good on paper, but the proof will be in the pudding - will Harden, Ray, and Lowell be on the disabled list in June? If so, it's going to be another frustrating year for Texas fans. If they can stay healthy, you have to think the team has improved in this week's deals.
"but the greatest and most inexcusable risk of all would have entailed the Rangers throwing up their hands, exclaiming "Oh well!" and watching helplessly as financial inflexibility wrecked their 2010 campaign."
AMEN... There are plenty of risks involved with Harden's health. But the worst case scenario is Harden gets hurt and pitches minimally. And what will the Rangers have missed out on if that happens? 180 innings of a league-average MORP. Millwood was serviceable here, but nothing more. Harden has a CHANCE to be a legit #1. There's also a very real chance he won't be, but we already know what the Rangers are with Millwood.... good, but not quite good enough.
If this team is serious about competing for a WS (and not just a winning record), there is going to be a certain amount of risk involved. They don't have the cash to shell out to healthy, top tier free agents, so they need to improvise. And while this might all blow up in JD's face if Harden isn't healthy and Ray is ineffective, I'd much rather watch a team try for 1st place and end up 3rd than be complacent with 2nd every year.
@James Mason - I think you're overestimating Francisco's value. He has serious health issues and even a healthy relief pitcher is not going to bring back a top bat in return.
I actually read everyone's post on BBTIA because you are all knowledgeable and not a bunch of idiots (like the DMN Blog). So... as I was reading each post I had a list of questions that popped into my head:
Joey - why is Harrison not listed as a viable rotation candidate? Am I missing something on him...? He had a rough year but he had a string of 3 or 4 starts where he was dominant, and then it was discovered he was pitching hurt. Nobody is plugging him in the 2010 rotation and I don't understand why. What's the book on him...or rather, what's the KNOCK on him?
Michael - what's with the Navarro rumor? I've searched high/low for info on this and I'm coming up empty handed. Would the Rays seriously flip an MLB ready catcher for a RELIEF pitcher? I think they are smarter than that...
Jesse - I think the Rangers would be thrilled if Borbon turns into Granderson but maybe a more realistic expectation would be Elsbury, or Carlos Gonzalez... even Juan Pierre Jr....
Dude in Afhg - I'm with you... and not that I'm complaining but why did the Orioles agree to that trade. Do they really feel they are 1 or 2 SPs away from contending... I don't get it!
Also, I can't understand the motivation behind the Red Sox moving Lowell for Max Ramirez. I realize it's not about MaxRam and it's all about money... but why would they send 2/3rds of his salary too? Something's strange about all this... and I believe JD and Theo are tight so maybe this is a gift from Theo and he will one day expect the same in return from JD... I smell a conspiracy.
All - there is a risk here but I think folks are overstating it. Realistically, what are the risks-
Harden on DL - we have Moscoso, Harrison, Feliz, Mathis, McCarthy, and Nippert (maybe even Hurley, Kiker) that could step in and provide 5-6 innings of solid pitching. No, they won't be Hardenesque (except Feliz) but they can hold down the fort until he's back.
Losing Millwood and his 200 IP - Granted, Millwood was a workhorse but RH workhorses are obviously much easier to replace than aces... he won't be missed!!!
Lowe on DL - This would be dissapointing but hardly a risk to the team's good fortunes. Like Harden, we could plug the gap (left by Lowell) with several in-house candidates.
Ray on the DL - Broken record... we plug the gap with a long list of capable pitchers.
The risk is minimal... and JD looks smarter with each passing day. He's built the farm, over-loading it with pitching, as if he knew that 1 day he'd make trades/signings such as these.
If our farm wasn't what it is today... this would be a HUGE risk... but when you have the depth to band-aid almost any open wound, you can take calculated risks.
And here's 1 last thought; what if Harden, Lowe, and Ray put up career numbers while the rest of the team sucks...and the Rangers are way out of it by the all-star break? We have 3 nice trade chips and the rich get richer.
The potential upside of these moves far outweighs the potential downside... this was a brilliant week for JD and his team. ** Especiallly after reading an article earlier in the week saying that the Rangers should skip the winter meetings because the club couldn't cover their travel expenses.
Man I can rant... sorry guys!
Mr. Gleason: Moscoso had an outstanding K/9 in 2008 of 12.67 but regressed closer to his career norms in 2009 with a 7.69 rate. Either way his K/9 is higher than several other Rangers pitchers.
Of course I'm also excited about the career K/9 for Holland (8.8), Feliz (10.7), and Perez (8.8). I can't wait to see how Robbie Ross and Scheppers look going forward. Ross and Perez really intrigue me because the both have good G/F rates AND K/9.
I. Can't. Wait.
Pabloesque: Harrison is a rotation candidate, but he can be more agressive out of the bullpen. He actually averaged 93.2 in the rotation this year for the Rangers and the Surprise Rafters, but I'd have to think he could bump up his velocity in 1-2 inning appearances.
Pabloesque, my takes:
Harry is coming off a major injury and needs more exp in the minors to learn how to miss bats,
O's wanted a inning eating vet to anchor what is a young, high upside staff.
BOS is trying to dump Lowell so the can sign Beltre.
Great post JM!
Sorry, Joey, Rich Harden can't be classified as a member of "baseball's elite pitching fraternity" with those other guys when the most innings he has ever pitched was 189 2/3 - and that was in 2004 - the only full year he has ever been able to put in during his career. That is not elite.
Does anyone know of a list of the pitchers with the highest strikeout rates that are below league average pitchers? I've seen a list of the lowest strikeout rate pitchers who were effective but not recently. Joey, I notice you as well as several other writers are using strikeout percentage rather than Ks/9. Is there a pronounced advantage in this metric?
Dude in Afghanistan, first, THANKS! Second, I think the Orioles were looking for veteran presence, innings and a reasonable health probability. Millwood is a leader and a gamer. A real asset to a team with the young pitching the O's are breaking in. That said I totally agree with you, I'd much rather take a chance on Harden.
Joey, thanks for this thought provoking stuff every week. With you, Newberg and Hindman, we Ranger fans might be the luckiest in terms of in depth coverage of our organization. Keep it up.
Thanks for the Moscoso stats, Dave.
Pabloesque, after a (relatively) good '08 but a dreadful '09, Navarro, on a ($2 M) contract, is a possible (probable?) non-tender candidate (to hit free agency tomorrow night at 11pm), now that the Rays have gotten Shoppach from Cleveland.
If the Rangers are willing to pay that, I'm thinking they might get it done for even less than Ray, since something is better than nothing. But regardless of whom TB would require in exchange, I'm guessing that Navarro at that rate is not for us either.
I also saw that the Rangers are leaning away from Navarro, & toward John Buck (whom KC is expected to non-tender, because he also makes a starter's wage but is now a back-up.) Having meanwhile compared their stats... despite my trumpeting Navarro earlier, I'm now with the Rangers, and prefer
Buck as back-up backstop.
(Say that 10 times!)
Hopefully The Buck stops here at 11:01 tomorrow night.
Okay. Back to work.
Cheers.
On second thought, a platoon of Tea and Buck ...
OBP SLG AVG.
.309 .538 .288 Teagarden vs. LHP
.311 .511 .259 Buck vs. RHP
(.835 OPS and .274 AVG !) might really be worth working out a deal with KC before tomorrow night.
We could give up someone minimal to shave a little off his salary, or give up someone better to shave off a lot.For example, if we give them their choice of Arias & German (again) -- so they can trade safely trade Callaspo, who's now behind Getz at 2B-- maybe they'll eat enough of Buck's salary ($500K?) to make MLB allow us to get Buck (for 1 year) before he hits the open market (where he possibly gets 2 years and MORE money. He seems comparable with Pudge & Torrealba), who are getting 2 years at 3 million per year.
We may have a better chance to get him (and on a better contract) NOW than after 11pm tomorrow.
4:59pm UPDATE from MLBTR regarding the above, making it all the better:
"The Royals signed catcher Jason Kendall to a two-year contract, according to a press release from the team.
Kendall, 35, hit .241/.331/.305 in 526 plate appearances for the Brewers this year, catching 1,162 innings.
Ivan Rodriguez and Brian Schneider also received two-year deals so far this winter.
The Royals entered the offseason intending to reboot their catching situation. They've declined an option on Miguel Olivo and signed Kendall, and may non-tender John Buck tomorrow."
"Joey - why is Harrison not listed as a viable rotation candidate? Am I missing something on him...? He had a rough year but he had a string of 3 or 4 starts where he was dominant, and then it was discovered he was pitching hurt. Nobody is plugging him in the 2010 rotation and I don't understand why. What's the book on him...or rather, what's the KNOCK on him?"
Good call -- Harrison slipped my mind when I was writing this at 5 a.m. or whatever ungodly hour it was. It may be that he comes roaring back and follows up on what he started during that brilliant 28-inning span (which, IIRC, was incited by quickened mound tempo), but the single biggest thing that continues to overshadow his talent and above-average raw stuff seems to be his demonstrated inability to miss bats, which conveniently goes back to the point of this column.
Missing bats is something he never really did in the minors and certainly hasn't done in the majors (yet), and he's been bypassed by both more intriguing/explosive pitching prospects such as Holland/Feliz and guys who have actually shown some success in the majors (particularly Hunter). That's where the apprehension stems from, and that's why he's not any higher on the pitching depth chart than where he is right now, and why he may be somebody that we see relegated to the bullpen down the road or leveraged via trade.
Sorry, Joey, Rich Harden can't be classified as a member of "baseball's elite pitching fraternity" with those other guys when the most innings he has ever pitched was 189 2/3 - and that was in 2004 - the only full year he has ever been able to put in during his career. That is not elite.
This is probably where our definitions of the term "elite" differ. Durability/health are extremely important factors in the equation, of course, but if a 140- to 150-inning guy absolutely dominates his league and produces the best strikeout rate in all of baseball, he's either "elite" or on the very fringes of it. Candidly, I think we both have good points.
Joey, I notice you as well as several other writers are using strikeout percentage rather than Ks/9. Is there a pronounced advantage in this metric?
Yes, but it's primarily a matter of preference for forecasting purposes. The reason I -- and some other stat-minded writers, such as the excellent Scott Lucas -- roll with K% over K/9 is because K% is defense-independent, whereas K/9 is not. All other things being equal, pitchers with good defenses behind them (such as Texas) will post lower K/9 ratios because they're facing fewer batters due to more balls in play being converted into outs. In that sense, K% is the better measure of actual skill.
Simple example: C.J. Wilson induces a sharply hit grounder to second base. If Ian Kinsler makes the play, that reduces the number of remaining outs in which Wilson can record a strikeout from three to two. If Kinsler can't reach the ball, or it whizzes under his glove, or he botches the play, Wilson still has three remaining outs in the inning.