Texas Trade Wind Anemometer: The Rangers' Arbitration Decisions
Joey Matschulat
One source's claims that the Rangers want to pull off a Kevin Millwood-for-Jermaine Dye roster swap simply don't make any sense.The quintessential Tom Hicks-is-a-failure rant, courtesy of Adam J. Morris:
● Faced with an 11:00 p.m. CST deadline by which they were required to offer salary arbitration to their arbitration-eligible free agents, the Texas Rangers have extended arbitration offers to free agent outfielder Marlon Byrd and catcher Ivan Rodriguez (Richard Durrett, ESPNDallas.com)
[As we originally explained back on Sept. 30th, the Byrd arbitration "decision" was actually a foregone conclusion for quite some time; in fact, the only real question was whether Pudge, the epitome of a borderline case, would receive similar treatment, and the fact that he did now means that Texas will recoup a supplemental-round draft pick in the 2010 amateur draft if he should decline the Rangers' offer before next Monday's 11:00 p.m. CST deadline. My baseless suspicion is that he'll take it ... and even if he's down value-wise from where he was a few short years ago, that's not necessarily a bad thing.
"But Joey," you exclaim, "Pudge is old and he can't hit and would interfere with the development of Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden!" All of those claims are true to some extent, but I get the sense that the Rangers are hesitant to roll into spring training without some sort of hedge against the very real possibility of more things going wrong behind the plate (e.g. Saltalamacchia experiencing a Hank Blalock-esque setback after TOS surgery and/or Teagarden continuing to helplessly flail), and Rodriguez, a true-talent .300 wOBA hitter with still-quality defense, is somewhat useful in that regard.]
● Baltimore recently inquired into the availability of right-hander Kevin Millwood, although the talks are not believed to be serious; while one source clarified that the Rangers' motivation in trading Millwood would stem from wanting to clear payroll in order to sign free agent outfielder Jermaine Dye, another source disclosed that the ballclub didn't view a Millwood-for-Dye swap as "sensible" (Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi, FOXSports.com)
[Source No. 1 may or may not have indulged in a few choice spirits before volunteering to act as an all-too-convenient anonymous source. This really doesn't make much sense to me at all -- unless this is part of a grand scheme to leverage the cost savings from the Millwood-to-Dye talent downgrade into a rotation-bolstering trade or signing (Ben Sheets?), there's really not much point in going to all of this trouble.
Two things which I neglected to mention in our expansive November 6th overview of Dye: (a) he was one of the biggest second-half disasters in baseball last season, hitting a meager .179/.293/.297 at a major power-producing position down the stretch and helping knock the White Sox out of the pennant race, which has (b) ignited whispers that his body is finally falling apart at the age of 35. Big concerns.]
● The Rangers possess interest in free agent southpaw Darren Oliver and "could" be interested in Dye and free agent right-hander Octavio Dotel (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
[Oliver was not offered arbitration by the Angels, so the logical expectation is that the Rangers will remain linked to him throughout his brief period of unemployment ... and so will about 15 other teams. Left-handed relief specialists always seem to attract an inordinate number of "interested teams," since teams are always looking for good left-handed pitching and even lower-payroll teams can generally get involved with middle-tier relievers. Dotel? Overpriced.]
● According to one baseball source, free agent shortstop Bobby Crosby "might be" on the Rangers' list of possibilities (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
[Potential is overrated anyway, right? If you squint your eyes and kinda cock your head to one side, you can see Mark DeRosa as a best-case comp for Crosby going forward (this based upon their versatility and comparable career numbers going into their age-30 seasons, the point at which DeRosa joined Texas and blasted off), but that's probably not going to happen because he's a massive disappointment who can't stay on the field and can't hit even when he is on the field.]
Quick Hits: Per MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, free agent infielders Jamey Carroll and Mark Loretta "could interest" the Rangers, as might free agent right-hander J.J. Putz ... SI.com's Jon Heyman continues to report that free agent shortstop Miguel Tejada -- who was not offered salary arbitration by the Astros -- is drawing interest from the Rangers ... Free agent left-hander Billy Wagner, a player of reputed interest to Texas, has reportedly signed a one-year, $7 million contract with the Braves ... Rangers executive vice president of communications confirmed on Tuesday that the arduous process of refunding 2009 post-season tickets was completed on Monday, adding that the team's financial situation was not to blame for the lengthy delays (although that explanation likely won't appease the seething masses).
Reader Comments (11)
Is there any sense to the thought that a trade of Millwood would free up salary cap space for a signing, not Dye, Oliver or Dotel or any other position player, but perhaps John Lackey?
I'm not saying that it is the best option, but it makes more sense than the other rumors I've heard.
The most likely scenario is that we keep Millwood for the duration of his contract, ending after this season and then using that money to lure in one of the several big time arms that are due to be available next off season.
If the ownership situation were to crystallize before Lackey/Boras progressed from the posturing stage to the "getting hot and heavy with teams" stage, maybe. Without strong assurances from new ownership -- and the approval of the league, a massive hurdle in and of itself -- that Lackey's eventual eight-digit salary could be supported to the completion of his contract, I can't imagine that Hicks would green-light Daniels and Co. going after Lackey.
And as you alluded to already, next off-season figures to be a nigh-historic FA class, with Beckett/Halladay/Lee/Vazquez/Webb all hitting the market and some interesting second-tier options (Bonderman, Blanton, etc.) coming into play -- and, in addition to that, deductible player contracts through the first 4-5 years of the next owner's franchise stewardship. In that sense, next winter might be the right time to strike ... but at the same time, punting 2010 is a big opportunity wasted.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/02/rangers.gilbert/index.html
Heyman says that Gilbert is the clear front runner for the team. meh.
More importantly he says "Baseball's goal was to get the Rangers sold by Thanksgiving, and while it didn't meet that objective, it may not be all that far behind it." Get the deal done so I can move on with my life already!
I'll always be in Pudge R.'s corner, so am glad to see arbitration was offered for him, as well as Byrd. I get tired of the revolving door regarding players. One year I root for a guy, next year he plays with the evil Yankees. Pudge can still walk away if he gets an offer he wants, but Rangers management has done the right thing by giving him a good opportunity to stick around with the team that brought him up.
Classic AJM doing what he does best. Unfortunately, after getting the best LSB has to offer the reader is immediately presented with the worst in the very first comment. All too typical over there, and it's a shame because there's a lot of knowledge and intelligent insight at times.
Sometimes you're lucky if you're in a position to not afford that shiny new bauble. Such is the case with Lackey. This is not a signing that would turn out well in the long term for the Rangers. It would very much be Millwood Act II in my view. Keep in mind, I liked the Park and Millwood signings at the time, but I learn from history.
Does offering arb to Pudge mean that money needs to come from somewhere else? Starting to get the feeling that the Rangers will be dumping $ this winter not adding. If Pudge gets 2-3 mil in arb the Rangers might have to loose that, someone like CJ or Frankie. This could get scary real quick.
Good Lord please don't sign Bobby Crosby!!
JWT: I'll be a little surprised if Pudge gets much of anything beyond $1.5M in '10 ... if he were to get a raise through arbitration, it would probably be quite marginal.
First, we should remember that the Rangers rarely make it all the way through the arbitration process. They almost always settle on a contract before the arbiter would decide on a salary. Second, Pudge is only getting older and will likely be declining. My guess is that he gets one million plus performance based incentives.
I really feel that the Angels have a problem with an aging lineup and rotation.
I am not sure the rangers need to get that much better next year. The Angels seem to have the potential to fall back 5 or 10 games maybe more if they get a couple of critical injuries.
I think the Rangers need to work on solving the out field issues but for more than just one year. Perhaps trade Davis or Smoak, Maybe even Feliz to get the "guy" in center. Move Hamilton to right. Put Cruz in Left. Then figure out who backs them up between Murphy, Boggs, Golson & Borbon. Plug Moreland in at DH. He couldn't be much more mediocre than Jones was last year. Indeed, Blalock would be a better answer than Dye I think.
If that guy is Borbon then Use Smoak and Feliz plus two others to get a starter, a good one.
Plan "B" is to stand pat until the trade deadline
But they should not mess with the likes of Dye
Yeah, I kinda lumped the inevitable out-of-court settlement in with the "arbitration process" ... the Rangers haven't actually gone to arbitration with one of their arb-eligible players since Lee Stevens, and even with this current financial mess I don't see them looking to resort to such measures.
In other news, Saltalamacchia's rehab has sustained an apparent body blow, and it's probably time to begin wondering if he's going to be somebody the Rangers can really count on going forward.