2009 Rule 5 Draft Preview - 10 Pitchers
David
Will Inman participates in the 2008 XM All-Star Futures Game on July 13th, 2008.Major League Baseball's Rule 5 draft is scheduled for December 10th, and with only 37 players on their 40-man roster, the Texas Rangers appear likely to make a selection. While it is rare for Rule 5 draft picks to develop into more than league-average players, it is worth noting that Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, Joakim Soria, Shane Victorino, and Darren O'Day were all drafted in the past five years.
During that same time period, more than 30 percent of Rule 5 draft picks wound up with either the team that selected them or a team to whom they were traded. From last year's Rule 5 draft, six of the 21 players who were selected ultimately became the property of a new organization [Everth Cabrera (selected #3), Donald Veal (#4), David Patton (#7), James Skelton (#11), Darren O'Day (#15), and Miguel Gonzalez (#18)].
The Rangers are currently scheduled to draft ninth after the Mets, Astros, Athletics, White Sox, Brewers, Cubs, Mariners and Braves. Teams tend to select pitchers in the Rule 5 draft (70 percent of the picks in the last five years have been pitchers and 16 of the 21 picks were pitchers in 2008). Ten pitchers whom the Rangers might consider selecting are presented below.
RHP Aneury Rodriguez (Rays)
21 years old, 6' 3", 180 lb.
● Durable pitcher who has moved through the minors at a rate of one level per year while being young for each league including this year when he pitched in AA at the age of 21. Rodriguez has combined good control with above-average strikeout rates. He posted the best batting average against (.231) of his career in 2009. His relatively high fly ball and corresponding homerun rates are a concern.
● Rodriguez has excellent command of a 92-94 mph fastball. His curveball could develop into an out pitch and his change-up projects as major league average.
● Rodriguez has only pitched as a starter in his professional career. It is possible that his stuff will be more effective if he is used in 1-2 inning stints as a reliever.
● Given his age, fastball velocity, and control, Rodriguez is perhaps the most intriguing player available in the Rule 5 draft. He could potentially develop into a major league starting pitcher, though it is unlikely that he could be more than a league-average reliever in 2010.
RHP Kevin Whelan (Yankees)
25 years old, 6' 0", 200 lb.
● Whelan was a catcher in college. He battled injuries in 2008 and has struggled to command his fastball throughout his professional career. Whelan's strikeout pitch is his split-finger fastball and he generates mid-90's velocity on his fastball with excellent arm speed (video). Opponents have hit .170 against him in the minor leagues and just .151 in AAA in 2009.
● "Whelan has classic closer stuff. His four-seam fastball tops out at 96 mph, and his two-seamer has wicked sink. When he widens his grip on the two-seamer, it morphs into a mid-80s splitter that buries hitters. His delivery has some deception as well, complicating matters for hitters even more. He's a dogged competitor." (John Manuel, Baseball America)
● Whelan's profile is reminiscent of Pedro Strop -- outstanding stuff that he struggles to control. Walks could prevent Whelan from sticking in a major league bullpen for the duration of the 2010 season, but if he can learn to command his fastball he could develop into a major league closer.
RHP Neil Wagner (Indians)
25 years old, 6' 0", 195 lb.
● Wagner's strikeout rates have been outstanding in each of his four minor league seasons. He showed outstanding control while pitching in the lower levels of the minors, but he struggled in AA with 3.6 BB/9 in 2008 and 4.7 BB/9 in 2009.
● Wagner probably has the best fastball of any of the Rule 5-eligible pitchers. The pitch, which has been described as explosive, sits at 93-95 mph and touches 98 mph (video). Unfortunately, it appears that Wagner has yet to develop a reliable second pitch.
● Wagner could potentially survive as a one-pitch reliever in the major leagues. The addition of a decent second pitch might allow Wagner to develop into a legitimate late-inning reliever.
RHP Jon Link (White Sox)
25 years old, 6' 1", 175 lb.
● Link posted 10.5 K/9 in AA in 2008 and in AAA in 2009. Prior to 2008, he had displayed outstanding control, but in the past two seasons he's tallied back-to-back walk rates of 4.3 BB/9.
● Link has a low-90s fastball with sink and his slider was ranked No. 1 in the White Sox system by Baseball America in 2009. Link's change-up has apparently developed into a decent pitch, though he has had trouble throughout his career with left-handed hitters (.271 BAA, including a .310 BAA in 2009).
● Link offers the best combination of ground balls and strikeouts among the pitchers who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft. A relatively high walk rate and difficulty with left-handed hitters might limit his ability to be an effective major league pitcher in 2010 and beyond.
LHP Chuck Lofgren (Indians)
23 years old, 6' 3", 205 lb.
● Former 4th round draft pick (2004) was rated the 54th-best prospect in baseball in 2007 and the 71st-best prospect in 2008 by Baseball America. Lofgren has improved his control as he has advanced through the minors but he's failed to maintain the higher strikeout rates that he had at the lower levels.
● "Lofgren is a physical starting pitcher who has a good four-pitch mix led by a fastball that ranges from 90-93 mph but tops out at 95 mph. In addition to the fastball, Lofgren also throws a slow curveball that tops out at around 75 mph and a change-up and slider which sit in the low-80s." (Tony Lastoria, Indians Prospect Insider)
● Lofgren has been a starter throughout his minor league career, so there is a chance that his stuff will play up if he pitches out of the bullpen. Given his effectiveness against left-handed batters (.240 BAA, 8.8 K/9 in his career and .170 BAA, 7.0 K/9 in 2009), it appears likely that Lofgren could slot as a LOOGY in the major leagues as soon as 2010. His role could expand if he proves to be more effective against right-handers when pitching out of the bullpen.
LHP Zach Kroenke (Yankees)
25 years old, 6' 2", 210 lb.
● Former fifth-round draft pick (2005) showed good progression during his first four professional seasons (6.6 K/9 on 2005, 6.7 K/9 in 2006, 7.0 K/9 in 2007, and 9.1 K/9 in 2008). In 2009, Kroenke's strikeout rate dropped back to pre-2008 levels (6.8 K/9) while pitching in AAA, but his other stats were better than his career averages.
● During the Arizona Fall League, Kroenke combined a 91-93 mph fastball with a 81-84 mph slider that produced 14 strikeouts in 15.1 innings.
● Kroenke has a 3.76 FIP and 9.0 K/9 vs. left-handed hitters in 110 career minor league innings. Left-handed batters hit just .213 and .196 against him in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Like Lofgren, Kroenke could possibly contribute at the major league level in 2010 as a LOOGY.
RHP Grant Duff (Yankees)
26 years old, 6' 6" 210 lb.
● Duff was a relatively uninteresting reliever in the Yankees system until this season, when his fastball velocity increased to the mid-90s and he began to demonstrate an ability to strike out opposing hitters. Duff was especially impressive following his promotion to AA, where he posted a strikeout rate of 9.2 K/9 in 36.1 innings. His height and high release point creates very good downward motion on his fastball.
● Pitching in the Arizona Fall League, Duff's fastball was 91-95 MPH fastball and his slider was 83-87 MPH with good movement.
● Duff is a wild card coming into the Rule 5 draft. His control is not particularly good (career 4.4 BB/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in AA-ball in 2009) and he has pitched just 36 innings in the upper minors. If he continues to build upon the improvements that he made in 2009, then it is possible that he could develop into an above-average major league reliever.
RHP Steven Wright (Indians)
25 years old, 6' 1", 210 lb.
● Wright has exhibited outstanding control and decent ground ball rates since being selected in the second round of the 2006 amateur draft. He did little to distinguish himself as a starting pitcher through his first three minor league seasons. His switch to the bullpen in 2009 was a good one as he posted a 2.68 FIP with 7.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and .221 BAA as a reliever in AA-ball and AAA-ball.
● "Wright throws a fastball that consistently clocks in at 89-91 mph and has topped out at 93 mph. In addition to the fastball he also throws a curveball, slider and change-up, with the best pitch in his arsenal being slider that grades out as a plus pitch." (Tony Lastoria, Indians Prospect Insider)
● Wright's success in the major leagues will depend on his ability to keep hitters off-balance by spotting three or four average pitchers. He seems unlikely to develop into much more than a middle-reliever, but he could provide a team with league-average production for less than $500,000 per year.
RHP Sean Watson (Reds)
24 years old, 6' 2", 215 lb.
● Watson was a second-round draft pick in 2006. He was primarily a starter in the Reds' system before being converted to the bullpen in 2008. He has demonstrated an ability to rack up strikeouts throughout his career, though that is balanced by relatively high walk and fly ball rates.
● Watson features a three-pitch mix and makes liberal use of his slider and change-up, As a reliever in the Arizona Fall League in 2009, his fastball was 90-92 mph, his slider was in the mid-80s, and his change-up was in the low-80s.
● Like Steven Wright, Watson appears unlikely to develop into much more than a league-average reliever.
RHP Will Inman (Padres)
22 years old, 6' 0" 200 lb.
● Prior to the 2007 season, Baseball America ranked Inman as the 91st-best prospect in baseball. They rated him the seventh-best prospect in the Padres system prior to 2008 and had the following to say: "While not overpowering, Inman controls his average fastball for strikes to any part of the zone. At his best, he pitches at 88-93 mph with a solid-average curveball and average changeup -- though the quality of his secondary stuff varies wildly from start to start. Inman added shape to his curveball this season, as it had previously resembled a slurve, and worked to incorporate more change-ups to his sequences. He's a fierce competitor who works ahead in the count and understands how to set up hitters." (Matt Eddy, Baseball America)
● Inman got his first taste of AAA in 2009 and he didn't like it (6.71 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, and 3.6 BB/9 in 63 innings). He's been fly ball-prone throughout his professional career, which is creating problems against the more mature hitters in the upper minors.
● Inman has been a starter throughout his professional career, but a switch to the bullpen seems to be in his future. He's been better in the early innings (3.68 FIP and .210 BAA in the first and second innings) than in the later innings (4.56 FIP and .250 BAA in the third and fourth innings). He could probably boost the velocity on his pitches by a couple of miles per hour as a reliever and allow his competitiveness to flourish. His unorthodox delivery (see video) might also play well in shorter stints.
Reader Comments (21)
Are you sure Hicks has the money to make a pick? :)
No harm in taking someone in the Rule 5 draft. It will either be a power arm like Whelan or a LHP.
David, thanks for the info, its not to often I get to read a rule 5 draft preview. Can you give me the top 3 guys the Rangers might go after based on current ability, ceiling, and ability to play for the Rangers this year?
Andrew
In my opinion, the three most likely pitchers to stick for all of 2010 on the Rangers 25 man roster are probably Link (because he combines an outpitch with a sinker) and the two lefties, Lofgren and Kroenke (because they can be used as LOOGY's).
In my opinion, the three pitchers with the highest ceilings are Whelan, Rodriguez, and Wagner.
Based upon the levels that they pitched and their performances in 2009, it appears that Link, Lofgren, and Whelan are the closest to being ready for major league action.
Personally, I will be happy if the Rangers select any of the top 7 on the list.
When you say the Rangers are drafting ninth, are you counting only teams that aren't currently carrying 40 players on their rosters? If so, be aware that any team can waive, trade, or outright players at any time up to the Rule 5 draft start time to clear space on its roster for a draft selection. The Rangers could draft as low as 22nd. Of course, a team can also pass and not make a selection at all, so the Rangers could draft higher than ninth as well.
geoknows - You are correct on all counts. The Rangers are currently scheduled to draft ninth based upon 2009 win-loss record and 40-man roster space. They could draft earlier if teams like the A's, Cubs, and Braves decide to offer arbitration to one or two of their free agents, sign a free agent, or claim a player off waivers. Worth noting is that two teams (Padres and Blue Jays) filled their 40 man rosters after NOvember 20th by claiming players who were designated by other teams. The Rangers could also draft later if teams with full 40 man rosters decide to waive someone prior to December 10. Based on what has happened in the past, it seems unlikely that a team will waive one of their own to participate in the Rule 5 draft.
Great post. I'm interested to know, who, if any of the players the Rangers left unprotected will garner interest from other organizations and in what particular order? I'm assuming that our system is so strong that we should have some good ones unprotected this year. I'm sure it'll just get more complicated next year.
Thanks,
David
Fabio Castillo doesn't seem equipped to stay on a major league roster, so I'm not too worried about someone taking him. I also feel the same way about Whittleman and Paisano. First of all, David has already shown that it's unlikely that a position player gets drafted, and secondly both are still far too green to hold onto a major league roster spot for a whole season. Now, next year is a completely different story. Next years' situation makes me think we need to trade some of our excess mid-minors pitching depth for either a major league ready (or proven) player or to get a couple more high ceiling prospects who are still at or low A.
Dave H - thank you for clarifying our own Rule 5 eligible players... I was concerned about this and thought we had a few key guys that would be exposed.
Aneury Rodriguez is intriguing because of his age and the fact he's been developed in a good system. The flyball and HR rates are a tad scary...
I guess that if you're going to add one of these pitchers to the 40 man roster, you likely need to pick a guy that you project to contribute within a season or two. I would think that this alone would eliminate this Rodriguez kid.
The two lefties; Lofgren and Kroenke... may be contributors right off the bat (no pun intended).
Link is interesting because he evidently keeps the ball on the ground and Duff might be worth a spot simply because of his size, which Nolan/JD seem to be drawn to.
Just so I'm clear on this... if the Rangers select 1 of these Rule 5 players they will have to guarantee a spot on the 40 and not the 25, correct?
Seattle David - I agree with Dave H's take on the Ranger's Rule 5 eligible position players and Fabio Castillo. In my opinion, the Ranger player who is most likely to be selected in the Rule 5 draft is Beau Jones. Jones is a lefty who was solid as a reliever in HighA and AA last year (3.22 ERA, 8 H/9, 9.2 K/9, and 4.4 BB/9 in 58.2 innings). Control problems in Frisco ruined the start to his 2009 season (6.1 BB/9, 5.88 ERA), but he got his act together following a demotion to Bakersfield (0.56 ERA, 4.4 H/9, 14.3 K/9, and 1.1 BB/9 in 16.1 innings) and then was solid upon his return to Frisco (2.13 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 8.4 K/9). He has a curve and change-up that are solid pitches and a fastball that has been low- to mid-90's in the past but was apparently topping out in the low-90's in 2009.
Pabloesque - In order for a team to keep a Rule 5 draftee, they must keep the player on their 25 man roster throughout the season. The player can be placed on the disabled list, but he must be active for at least 90 days. If those requirements are not met, then the drafting team must offer the player back to the team from which they were drafted. What often happens with drafted players who are not quite ready to stick on a team's 25 man roster is that the drafting team works out a trade with the team from whom the player was drafted so that they can keep the player on their 40-man roster without having to place him on their 25 man roster.
David, Joey, Trip et al.,
Thanks for the above!
In light of how unforgiving this system is of teams (like the Yankees) that sign lots of FAs and teams (like next year's Rangers) that develop so many prospects that they must trade or lose some each year...
How many of our own Minors players ON the 40 could benefit (not be overwhelmed) by getting MLB playing time this year?
I know most people are so tired of missing the playoffs and so ready to win now that they'd definitely sign some FAs and trade some unknown AA guys to try & ensure playoff contention this year, but how vital do you see it that some (which?) of these guys get MLB playing time ASAP, so we know whether to keep or trade them, and thus don't lose 3 or 4 in next year's Rule 5 Draft?
Doesn't the prospect of signing FAs this year correlate directly with the dread of losing promising prospects next year, whether or not these FAs are signed to 1-year deals?
Thanks David...!
Guessing that if he/they get to us we might take a shot at :Lofgren and Whelan. Lofgren sounds like he could be a loogy/long man this year and that Whelan could be a 1-2 inning guy on the B side. Both sound like decent upside picks that if you decide you don't want them later you just cut them loose, and if they don't show enough this year you cut them loose to make room for your own.
If there was a way for Rodriguez to really stick with the team I think he would be my most coveted target, but I just don't think we can hide him in the BP all year.
don't know where you heard that jon link is eligible but he's been on the white sox' 40 man roster for awhile.
Whelan came into A&M as a catcher, but started working as a pitcher his junior year and worked exclusively as a closer by his senior year and he was very effective.
larry - thanks for pointing out the mistake on Jon Link. It's too bad he is not available - he looks like an intriguing bullpen candidate.
Michael - If the Rangers weren't looking to compete for a playoff spot in 2010, then I would think that the team would want to take an extended look at Matt Harrison, Luis Mendoza, Joaquin Arias, Guillermo Moscoso, Pedro Strop, Taylor Teagarden, and Brandon Boggs to decide whether they can compete in the major leagues and what their optimal roles would be on a contending team. Based on their performances in 2010, I can imagine that it would make sense to give major league playing time to one or more of Justin Smoak, Max Ramirez, Greg Golson, Kasey Kiker, Daniel Gutierrez, Tanner Scheppers, Eric Hurley, Zach Phillips, Michael Kirkman, and Blake Beavan.
It sounds like you are of the opinion that the Rangers should forego signing any free agents who are unlikely to be more productive than a player currently in the Rangers' organization who would benefit from major league playing time. For the most part, I agree, though I think it is possible to accurately determine whether a player should be added to the 40 man roster without giving him a major league audition.
Thank you, David.
You're right: I'm leaning that way of late.
You didn't list the one guy I truly think might help more and gain more development than any other position player: Mitch Moreland-- Oh wait! He's not on the 40 yet, is he?. I'm glad you see so many as (otherwise) in a position to be called up, and yet see them as assessible even in AAA... b/c that's just too many to fit on the 25! Good problem to have!
I wonder if little injuries this year will put marginal players on the DL so we can use the 2 weeks to showcase others for trade...
David, you say that a team would not waive one of its own to participate in the Rule 5. You might be interested to know that's exactly what the Royals did in order to select Joakim Soria in 2006. They waived a player that morning to make room (can't remember who, though).
John link has been on the whitesox 40 man roster since last year making him inelligable for the rule 5
Why not LH Starter Ben Jukich who is dominating in the Dominican Winter Leagues (best ERA)...he was the Reds best AAA starter this last season with an 8-4 record as a starter? Jukich has no question marks...he has succeeded at every level. Everyone (other than maybe your top 2) above has HUGE question marks...why not go with someone that wins at every level without question?