High Leverage: The Three Most Valuable Rangers Hits Of 2009
In the spirit of keeping things fresh and original and not solely focused on what has thus far been a decidedly ho-hum hot stove season, I wanted to break away from the mold this morning and reflect a little bit more upon the 2009 Texas Rangers season that was ... and this time, we'll briefly look at it from a WPA-focused perspective.
WPA, or "win probability added," essentially measures a given player's win contribution in the context of a game situation, be it through a single play or game or an entire season. In this way, players are statistically rewarded and/or penalized at a level commensurate with how much or how little they improved their team's chances of winning; for example, two batters can post identical 1-for-4, one-homer games, but if one is a game-winning blast and the other is clouted in a blowout loss, there's going to be a sizable single-game WPA difference. Not coincidentally, "clutch" late-inning hits are generally valued the most highly in terms of WPA.
Listed below are the three largest single-play WPA totals from the 2009 regular season (with No. 4 and No. 5 attached at the very bottom), complete with what should be some familiar video highlights and another relevant statistic, Leverage Index (which measures the importance of a given game situation, with 1.00 being average, 2.00 being exactly two times more important than average, and so forth):
No. 3 - Yeah, You're Not Going To Catch That (Hank Blalock)
May 13th, 2009 vs. Seattle (Brandon Morrow)
Win Probability: .649 | Leverage Index: 7.16 | Video | Game Story
Notes: Even before mid-May had rolled around, the whispers concerning Hank Blalock's maddening offensive tendencies had become normal-volumed cries of concern, and before season's end it was patently clear that he had hacked his way clean out of the organization; nevertheless, he experienced his fair share of "Wow, he's still got something!" moments, which primarily served as somber reminders of what he could have been and likely never will be. But I digress.
After C.J. Wilson yielded a groan-inducing RBI double in the top of the 11th inning, Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu called upon early-season closer Brandon Morrow to slam the door shut on Texas. One double, one walk and one blast into the right-center field power alley later, pandemonium erupted ... and would do so yet again less than 24 hours later ...
No. 2 - Throwing It Back Won't Bring The Lead Back (Michael Young)
April 24th, 2009 at Baltimore (George Sherrill)
Win Probability: .702 | Leverage Index: 2.90 | Video | Game Story
Notes: In a season loaded to the brim with dramatic walk-off victories, I suspect some of the greater away-from-home moments have slipped out of our minds -- or at least that's how I choose to rationalize the fact that I didn't remember this game, in spite of the fact that I wrote however many hundreds of words about it.
After a discouraging 3-9 slide since the season-opening sweep against Cleveland, the Rangers ignited their ascension to the top of the standings with this series-opening shocker at Baltimore, which saw Texas overcome a 4-1 deficit going into the top of the seventh inning and overtake the Orioles with just a single out remaining.
Credit Ian Kinsler for prolonging the affair with his two-out, nobody-on single. Credit Young for a morale-boosting and perhaps season-saving win; sure, the fun times finally began to run out around the beginning of August, but without that late-April turnaround there are far fewer fun times in May, June or July, and perhaps the ballclub finds itself out of contention before Memorial Day ... again.
No. 1 - Que Sera, Sera (Chris Davis)
May 14th, 2009 vs. Seattle (Brandon Morrow)
Win Probability: .704 | Leverage Index: 4.95 | Video | Game Story
Notes: ... yeah, Brandon Morrow hates the Rangers. There's really nothing else to be said.
[See also: Chris Davis -- .442 WPA, 3.69 LI (June 26th, 2009), Marlon Byrd -- .439 WPA, 4.03 LI (September 26th, 2009)]
7 Comments | in Analysis, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (7)
May was a fun time to be a Rangers fan this year, no doubt.
man, i am ready for some baseball
OT:
MLBTR says the Rangers contacted MScutaro about playing 3B!
Would we dare make MY our dream "UIF-player/coach-full-time DH" one season after moving him a 2nd time? Although Scutaro doesn't sound intersted in TX or 3B, I think it would pay big dividends to replace MY's full-time glove with Scutaro's, but can't imagine MY not demanding a trade-- which brings to mind both our liquidation concerns and Boston's, Philly's & LA's hunt for a SS, 3B & 2B (respectively).
All 3 clubs may be circling overhead, waiting for the fiscal death of our franchise to either make us eat salary or demand little talent back in return.
(from MLBTR):
1:13pm: In a slight correction to his article, Bastian says that the Mariners and Rangers have contacted the 34-year-old, but not necessarily about playing third base (via Twitter).
"Oops" says Bastian, after causing Michael Young to burn all bridges with the Texas Rangers, and swear off baseball altogether...
(Ahem) ...Nevermind... (Ahem)
Scutaro's interesting in the sense that he's a good bat control guy with good plate patience and a bit of pop, but ... 34 years old, coming off a likely unrepeatable '09 campaign and all-over-the-map defense are all risk factors, with the second perhaps being the biggest. Whichever team signs him will probably paying for what he did last year more so than what he's likely to do going forward, and since (a) the Rangers' interest in him is as a utility infielder, which Scutaro doesn't want to be, and (b) the Rangers don't have any money, this rumor doesn't make any more sense than it did before Bastian's correction.
I know "Team X is interested in Player Y" never meant all that much in the first place, but it REALLY feels meaningless this winter.
"In a season loaded to the brim with dramatic walk-off victories" Really? It seemed to me that that was what was missing from this team. Most of the victories I remember of the type where the Rangers get ahead early and then barely hold on as the other team chips away at the lead. The exciting come-from-behind win was missing and I think it contributed to the defeatist attitude down the stretch.
Well, there were something like five or six walk-off victories in 2009, not to mention three or four more road games in which Texas rallied from behind in their final at-bat ... there were plenty of those "get ahead early, then come dangerously close to blowing it" wins, certainly, and there weren't as many walk-off wins in the second half as you would have liked, but there was late-inning excitement in abundance.