Saturday Morning Rangers Notes: Swinging From The Heels
Joey MatschulatIn the spirit of trying new things and accommodating my bizarre schedule, I'm going to shuffle the deck a little bit this morning and solely post the latest rumors/news trickling down from the top right now, then fill in the gaps with some actual analysis around the middle of the morning:
● Team officials from both the Rangers and the Cubs vehemently denied early-day reports that a three-way deal was in the works which would have sent Milton Bradley to the Rangers, Kevin Millwood to the Mets and Luis Castillo to the Cubs; when queried as to the rumor's validity, one Rangers official matter-of-factly stated, "Not happening" (Carrie Muskat, MLB.com)
[Usually where there's smoke, there's fire, but that doesn't appear to be the case this time, and for good reason -- this deal does the most good for New York. It's concerning that Millwood's peripherals so markedly regressed in 2009, but even if you utilize his fielding-independent ERA in valuing his actual worth at this stage in his career (as FanGraphs does), he was still a 2.4-win pitcher last season in nearly 200 innings of work -- or roughly league average. There's legitimate value in that, particularly when you consider that the Rangers' purportedly strong ML-ready starting pitching depth isn't really all that strong.]
That isn't to say that I'm totally averse to moving Millwood along on his way, but in any trade configuration where he's dealt for a lower-salaried player, something productive has to be done with the cost savings; that becomes doubly true if you're trading for a relatively low-cost hitter, in which case the extra cash probably needs to be laid down towards one of the market's high-variance veterans, such as Ben Sheets or Rich Harden. A bit more on this notion next week.]
● The Marlins' discussions with the Rangers and Giants regarding a potential deal involving second baseman Dan Uggla got "pretty hot and heavy" during the general managers' meetings, although Florida could also pare payroll by dealing other arbitration-eligible talents such as right-hander Ricky Nolasco, corner infielder Jorge Cantu and outfielder Cody Ross (Jayson Stark, ESPN.com)
[The soon-to-be 30-year-old Uggla is both expensive and not a defensive asset, with a playable but hardly elite-level bat if slotted into the Rangers' designated hitter role; you'll have to pardon me if I find myself enamored by one Carlos Enrique Nolasco.]
● In a related development, negotiations between the Marlins and arbitration-eligible right-hander Josh Johnson have reached an "impasse," igniting speculation that Florida will explore a trade before he attains free agent eligibility after the 2011 regular season (Jerry Crasnick, ESPN.com)
● Free agent shortstop Miguel Tejada could "make some sense" for several teams, including the Phillies, Giants and Rangers (Jon Heyman, SI.com)
[I'm not going to try and pretend that I get where Heyman is coming from here. If prospective buyers properly account for the fact that he's likely a below-average defender at this stage in his career (minus-11.7 UZR and minus-14 +/- over the last three seasons), then he really makes the most sense as a third baseman or designated hitter going forward, at which point you encounter another obstacle -- he's just not that great at hitting anymore.
This isn't the '04-'06 version of Tejada that many Orioles fans so fondly remember, the guy who posted .385-plus wOBAs for three consecutive seasons and was one of the most valuable shortstops in baseball; rather, this is a guy whose on-base skills have eroded and who will be turning 36 years old in late May. Unless you're prepared to handsomely overpay for .300/.340/.450 production from a designated hitter whose value is increasingly becoming rooted in his name recognition, stay far away.]
Quick Hits: All bids to purchase the Rangers were due on Friday, and no, there's not yet any word as to whom the surprise fourth bidder -- not including Tom Hicks -- might be ... As David discussed on Thursday, the Rangers have added Rule 5 draft-eligible left-handers Michael Kirkman and Zach Phillips to their 40-man roster ... The White Sox are quickly zeroing in on free agent utility infielder Omar Vizquel, and the odds are pretty strong that Texas won't find a replacement with equivalent or better defensive chops ... ESPN.com's Richard Durrett has interviewed Brandon McCarthy, Michael Young and Marlon Byrd; McCarthy discusses the end-of-season introduction of a cutter into his pitching arsenal, while Byrd mentions being amicable to the idea of a two-year deal "at the right price," but Texas is no longer being regarded as a likely destination.
Reader Comments (8)
Joshua Michael Johnson, mmm mmm mmm!
I don't see how anyone would think that it would make any sense for the Rangers to trade workhorse Millwood for the undependaple Bradley. Even though MIllwood is no longer the team's 'ace' (if he ever was), he is still the kind of veteran pitcher that championship rotations need to come in as the second, third, or fourth starter. Aside from Feldman and probably Hunter, I would not bet that any of the rest of the 'young guns' the Rangers now have are sure things to put up 200 innings next year.
Who is this Ricky Nolasco guy? Nyuk, nyuk...
LOL there is no way we're getting JJ, but it is nice to dream about it.
And please, if Texas is going to fork over Millwood, please get something in return better than MB.
That's all I got.
I think the Uggla rumor is just conjecture. I'm thinking, and hoping, that the Rangers are talking to the Marlins...about Johnson or Nolasco. A deal involving Johnson and Smoak seems to make great sense for both teams. Smoak would be a perfect fit for Florida. They need a first baseman, and Smoak is as close to a major league ready sure thing as you're going to find. They would have control of him for 6 years. Johnson would give the Rangers the ace they've wanted for the past 15+ years. I can't think of a more mutually beneficial deal.
@rangers01-
I don't think Smoak makes much sense for Florida. They have a first baseman in Logan Morrison, who is ranked as a top 30 prospect in baseball. Realistically, I think Florida might want to package Uggla and Johnson in a deal together to get serious payroll relief, and a huge haul of prospects. Based upon their system, it seems like they might be able to use a power hitting outfielder, who can replace Coghlan. Once they trade Uggla, they apparently plan on having Coghlan move back to second.
And of course, I'd think they would want to acquire some high upside pitching prospects. The absolute most I'd offer is something like this:
Nelson Cruz, Martin Perez, Tommy Hunter, and Engel Beltre for Josh Johnson and Dan Uggla.
That would be a really tough offer to make, but I think it is fair. Hunter only has the upside of a #3/4 starter, but he could pitching in their rotation right now. Perez gives them the big-time prospect that I'm sure they'd expect in a deal like this. Cruz can take over for Coghlan in the outfield. That is one hell of an offer, but I think that is what it would take. And I think that swap would make the Rangers a better team, especially if Johnson agrees to a 4 year 40-45 million dollar deal, as he is demanding of Florida.
I also think that if we had to take on Uggla's contract as part of the deal, there could be some logic to it. He was very unlucky last year (.277 BABIP), but his BB% has gone up every year. I'd go as far as saying he has a solid shot at 100 walks next season after 92 this season. If his BABIP was closer to .300 next year (as it has been over his career), then you are talking about a .375-.380 OBP guy, who can still hit 30+ home runs. He could also provide depth at second base and third base. Given Kinsley's injury history, I wouldn't be opposed to something like that.
@SMR2162
That's a pretty legitimate offer in my book. While I like Uggla as a hitter, he's not much of a ballplayer in my opinion, so there's the possibility of flipping him to someone who may value him higher. Worst case, he's your primary DH for a year. But Johnson gives you that stud horse, that true #1. If I'm Daniels and Florida bites on that package, or anything close, my next phone call is to order Josh Johnsons' uniform.
SMR2162
Completely agree......