Rangers Arizona Fall League Recap
David
Tanner Scheppers deals a pitch in Arizona.The Arizona Fall League (AFL) wrapped up on November 19th. The Texas Rangers' triumvirate of Matt Harrison, Danny Gutierrez and Tanner Scheppers combined to pitch seven innings and hold the league-leading Phoenix Desert Dogs to three runs on four hits, a walk and nine strikeouts. Marcus Lemon tied the game in the ninth inning with a home run and then Taylor Teagarden ended it with a walk-off three-run homer. And that, my friends, is a nice way to end the 2009 season!
Nine different players from the Rangers organization participated in the AFL this season with generally positive results:
RANGERS HITTERS
RANGERS PITCHERS
Due to the small sample size and the hitter-friendly conditions, one shouldn't place too much weight on player performances. With that said, I think that there are a few things worth pointing out in regard to the Rangers' 2009 AFL participants.
No. 1 -- Mitch Moreland is a hit(ter)
● In a league brimming with elite hitting prospects, Moreland hit third or fourth in the lineup in almost every game he played. Moreland turned a few heads (see here and here) and showed an ability to get on base (.398 OBP) against some of the more talented pitching prospects in baseball.
● Prior to the AFL, Moreland was among the top five hitters in the Texas League with a batting line of .326/.373/.488.
● Before being promoted to Double-A Frisco, Moreland was one of the top five hitters in the California League with a batting line of .341/.421/.594.
● In 2008, Moreland was the best hitter in the Midwest League with a batting line of .324/.400/.536.
Questions about Moreland's defensive value will persist, but there seems to be little doubt about his ability to hit. He will likely begin 2010 with the Oklahoma RedHawks, hitting alongside Justin Smoak and Max Ramirez -- and it wouldn't be surprising if he out-hit them both.
No. 2 -- The 2010 battle for "Best Curveball in the Rangers' System" will be interesting
In 2008, Baseball America (BA) deemed Martin Perez and Daniel Gutierrez to have the best curveballs in the Rangers' and Royals' systems, respectively. Perez figures to repeat in terms of wielding the Rangers' best curveball in 2009, but his two year reign could end with the return of Michael Main and the additions of Gutierrez and Tanner Scheppers.
No. 3 -- Reports of the death of Marcus Lemon's prospect status were greatly exaggerated
As a 19-/20-year-old in 2008, Marcus Lemon was one of the best-hitting middle infielders in the lower minor leagues, with a .295/.374/.434 line at High-A Bakersfield. A great first month in AA-ball (.324/.356/.456 with a 32 percent line drive rate) had many proclaiming that Lemon had arrived. Unfortunately, Lemon struggled through the remainder of the 2009 season and posted a disappointing line of .263/.327/.335 in Frisco.
As a middle infielder/center fielder in the AFL, Lemon is reminding us that he can lay wood to rawhide. Lemon finished his AFL stint with a 1.016 OPS that ranked among the top 10 hitters in the AFL. It is unclear whether he will start the 2010 season in the Texas League or the Pacific Coast League, but in either case, he will be among the league's youngest players as a 21-year-old. Given his energy and baseball IQ, Lemon appears to be ideally suited to provide the Rangers with a productive utility player perhaps as soon as 2011.
No. 5 -- Brennan Garr and Evan Reed: Rule 5 Draft Candidates
Brennan Garr is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year; Evan Reed will be eligible following next season. Both pitchers were given an opportunity to elevate their prospect status with assignments to the Arizona Fall League. Unfortunately, it appears that neither pitcher did enough to justify a future spot on the Rangers' 40-man roster.
Garr threw his fastball (91.5 mph) and slider (82.5 mph) with below-average velocity for a reliever and average movement. His change-up displayed outstanding downward movement (eight inches of sink compared to his fastball), but the pitch is unlikely to be enough to compensate for his other average to below-average pitches. Reed's fastball had better velocity than Garr's (93 mph) but it had no better movement. Likewise, Reed's slider appears to be an average pitch at best (84.1 mph with slightly below-average sink).
No. 5 -- Matt Harrison is healthy (I think)
Harrison had surgery in August to alleviate weakness and pain associated with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS). Two months later, Harrison was added to the roster of the Surprise Rafters and pitched in five games. His AFL performance was reminiscent of his time in the big leagues -- decent ERA despite disappointing strikeout totals. Shown below are comparisons of the Pitch f/x data for the gem that Harrison pitched against the Chicago White Sox on May 8th (9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K) and his start in the AFL on November 13th (3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K):
Harrison's fastball velocity this fall has been equal to his best days in the major leagues last season. The velocities of his secondary pitches also appear to have returned to their pre-surgery levels. Interestingly, the movement on his pitches appears to have changed dramatically. Both the MLB and AFL data are drawn from Brooks Baseball, so the disparity in pitch movement is not due to a difference in raw data analysis. There is some game-to-game and site-to-site variation in Pitch f/x data, but not enough to account for the differences shown in the table above. Perhaps Harrison has changed his throwing motion or perhaps it is the dry air.
No. 6 -- Taylor Teagarden should consider using a bat with a wider barrel
With 18 strikeouts in 52 AFL at-bats (35 percent strikeout rate), Teagarden continued to have trouble making consistent contact. In the past three seasons, Teagarden has struck out in 34.5 percent of his professional at-bats:
2007 (A+/AA): 128 strikeouts in 394 at-bats
2008 (AA/AAA/MLB): 101 strikeouts in 293 at-bats
2009 (MLB/AFL): 93 strikeouts in 245 at-bats
Teagarden will begin the 2010 season as a 26-year-old and, unless something dramatic happens, he will likely strike out in at least 30 percent of his at bats. Assuming his batting average on balls in play is league average, Teagarden will have a batting average of roughly .215. If he is to achieve an OPS that is league average for catchers (roughly .750), he will need to have a walk rate of 14 percent and average two bases per hit. Before you get your hopes up, it is worth noting that Teagarden's walk rate in 2009 was 4.7 percent and he averaged 1.7 bases per hit.
Reader Comments (17)
A Scott Lucas-esque report today. " Reports of the death of Marcus Lemon's prospect status were greatly exaggerated" and "Taylor Teagarden should consider using a bat with a wider barrel" both got chuckles.
Great report, thanks David
And, David takes the lead spot on the Moreland Bandwagon. I'm excited about what Moreland has become, but not excited enough to say he'll outhit Smoak.
Tea was working on some things in his swing. I recall that he mentioned it in a brief quote when asked about his assignment to AFL. Hopefully, he'll be able to get a feel for them this winter and they will improve his K rate.
Harrison.... I don't know what to think about Harrison, but it seems like a good question to ask Jason Cole, since he often interviews these guys. The changes in his pitch movement seem intentional, though, because the change/fastball movement lineup pretty well except for the much greater downward movement of his change. As they say, he's changing the hitter's eye levels with those two pitches, while his slider is giving him in-out movement. If he has been working on that during his rehab, it appears to have really paid off in his final two AFL outings.
Interesting how the catcher situation has so rapidly collapsed.
What was strength is now a weakness.
All hopes now seem to sitting squarely and solely on Salty's shoulders.
Such is baseball...........
On the catching situation it should be noted that Teagarden will be 26 this next season. He's got about one more year that we could hope for a significant improvement, but if we don't see it next year, he ceiling probably moves down to an average once or twice a week backup. Salty will turn 25 early next season. If he can get (and stay) healthy, he still has time to turn into the catcher everyone thought he would a couple of years ago. Even if he doesn't turn out to be quite that, he could still be an above average starting catcher. As it stands right now, they both look like AAAA catchers, but we all know that could change in a heartbeat.
As far as Moreland is concerned, I've liked him for quite a while now and was quite disappointed when his season was cut short. The problem I've had with Moreland is that his path to the Rangers seems blocked by Davis and Smoak or Hamilton and Cruz. For our ballpark, it would seem that RF and 1B are the only defensive postitions within his range. More than likely he ends up as a DH, so I would guess that Moreland, Smoak, or Davis ends up elsewhere. With a budget that seems even lower than mine this offseason, it would appear highly likely that one of these guys moves in a trade. Unforunately, I want to hold on to every prospect AND acquire big names in trades, and there's just no room for everyone.
I'm glad to see Lemon coming back to life. As always AFL #'s are unreliable, but if he could hit .270/.340/.425 as a complete utility man, he'd be quite useful. Perhaps he could slot in like a poor man's Mark Derosa. It's encouraging.
Teagarden needs to be given a full season at Frisco to iron out his hitting or be declared a backup. I've thought from the end of the season he should start the season in the minors with the Rangers signing a veteran backstop to backup Salty -obviously a role Rodriguez would be perfectly suited-.
I wonder if Moreland can catch. He was once being considered as a pitcher, so he has to have some knowledge of game calling, right?
Rob - I am unworthy of the Lucas comparison. That man deserves a pedestal all to himself.
Rooster - Until he relinquishes the reins, t ball is the man driving the Moreland bandwagon. A couple of months ago, I tried unsuccessfully to convince Jason Parks that Moreland's hit tool is equivalent to Smoak. Parks held that Smoak's ability to work a walk separates the two, but he really liked Moreland's power. If I have a concern about Moreland, it is that he has displayed less power against upper-level pitchers. As regards Harrison, I am hoping for (but not expecting) a Hunter/Feldman like breakthrough in 2010 or 2011. He is young (23 or 24) and he has proven to be effective against major league hitters when he is throwing strikes. I wonder if having him pitch out of the Rangers' bullpen wouldn't help him learn to be more aggressive.
Jon and Dave H - The dogma is that catchers take a little longer to develop. It wouldn't surprise me if Saltalamacchia had a greakout campaign in the next year or two. Unfortunately, I just don't see Teagarden hitting enough to be more than a very good backup.
Adam - That is a fascinating idea. Moreland is a bit taller than the prototypical catcher at 6'3", but he does have the arm. Footwork might be a bit of problem.
David,
I agree. IF Salty recovers from surgery, and the expectation is that he will, I project him to be an above average catcher. Not great, but good enough with probably stronger defense then hitting. Teams do not have to have All Stars at all positions so I project Salty as the starting catcher.
Teagarden does need to spend a year at AAA. I would like to see Pudge resign for a year and then have a nice retirement ceremony at the end of the season. After that I project Teagarden to be an acceptable backup. Once again defense will be better then hitting.
This takes care of the Rangers needs, but it sure is a step down from what people were thinking at this time last year.
Moreland's path maybe blocked today, but things change.
Anyone remember when we traded a AAA 1B because Tex was the Ranger's present and future 1B?
Moreland's hitting approach, body type, and athleticism remind me a lot of AGon. I'm not prepared to suggest that Moreland has the potential to develop into an all-star caliber hitter, but there is an uncanny similarity between the two.
He sure fits our need as DH vs LHPs, as well as insurance in the OF & 1B.
He might allow us to trade Smoak, Murphy & say Madrigal for Nolasco & Ross.
If we add Millwood, German & 7 million, do we get Cantu & Amezaga?
One-stop shopping!
Could Moreland play 3rd?
MY isn't going to be there forever. At some point he may take up a role a highly paid backup, team leader, player coach kind of guy. While a better MY is better at 3rd than SS he still isn't more than acceptable. Could Moreland play 3rd and MY be a DH? A 300 average and 24 HR like MY put last year would look in the DH hole
For 3B I hope the Rangers are considering Minor League FA Ruben Gotay. He reminds me of Cruz as a potential late break-out possibility. Dallas McPherson is another MiLB FA, but I don't think he's very good with the glove, and he's disappointed many who have hoped he'd break the AAAA mould.
Gotay seems different. He gets on base even when his power dips, and he plays 2b & 3b: needing a UIF is a good time to experiment with one who could break out and become more than that over time. I think he's 28. David or Joey, any thoughts on him?
"Could Moreland play 3rd?"
Arm is there. Athleticism, by most accounts, is middling. Foot speed is subpar, although that's not a prime asset at third base, but I wonder if that extends to his first step and reaction time. His bat could play there, I think (although I'm not wholly convinced of that yet), but he might be slightly below average (-5 runs?) if you move him across the diamond ... and, well, for a team that has done a fine job in its own right of helping to correct the leaguewide inefficiency in the market as far as defense is concerned, maybe that's not the most appealing option.
3rd base options for the Rangers:
Moreland doesn't strike me as being agile enough to handle the footwork required at 3rd base.
Ruben Gotay - Soon to be 27 with career major league line of 255/315/371 and a career minor league line of 275/367/426. He had career highs in OBP and OPS in the PCL in 2009 and an overall line of 272/429/450. His 2009 AAA numbers translate to a 218/344/348 line in Texas. I've never seen Gotay play, but his stats do not provide much to be optimistic about.
Thanks David,
I know he's played 2b & 3b, but any SS? You've helped me be less anxious about seeing him picked up by another team. His fielding is good, though, if I remember correctly. I'm okay with German as our UIF/5th or 6th OF, or Amezaga if he can be included in a trade since he's played more SS/3B &CF, but I like the idea of going with one who might become more (eg Cat after the JuanGon trade, or DeRosa as a Ranger...) but only if they have the glove.
Moreland strikes me as a perfect full-timer vs LHP/bench bat, whether that full time vs LHP was in RF, at DH/back-up 1B or both.
We need Davis to get consistent at bats, but Cruz could play LF, & Hamilton CF if we don't pick up Cody Ross in a trade.