Tuesday Morning Rangers Notes: Andrus, Payroll & More Rumors
Joey MatschulatWherein we find ourselves wondering if Ron Washington was, on a pure job competency level, a top-three American League manager in 2009 ... and if so, whether the BBWAA electorate will agree on Wednesday:
● Speaking of that, one thing that I've come to find rather amusing is the vitriol which the "secondary" post-season awards invariably generate every year; blowing your gasket over a terrible Most Valuable Player selection is defensible in the sense that it can (and does) have long-term implications for a player's Hall of Fame candidacy, but you're not ever going to see the balloters assigning much weight to the Rookie of the Year Award when it comes down to assessing a player's Cooperstown credentials.
I certainly understand why it happens with the less prestigious awards, and like most people, I'll admit to experiencing a pang of frustration when the Athletics' Andrew Bailey handily triumphed over Elvis Andrus on Monday afternoon (thereby extending the Rangers' Rookie of the Year Award drought to a major league-high 35 years -- where art thou, Mike Hargrove?), but that's all it was -- a pang, both fleeting and gone in a flash. I guess I'd just much rather channel my energy towards writing about how valuable Andrus is than writing about perceived errors in the judgment of the voters.
[All that being said, Brett Anderson finishing sixth among American League rookies is really silly (refresh your memory with this this October 5th dissertation on this year's rookie class if you'd like to know exactly why), and Bailey's runaway victory is a direct reflection of how much baseball writers overvalue the save as a statistic ... but I digress.]
The reason I call attention to all of this is because multiple Chicago writers are absolutetly incredulous that the White Sox' Gordon Beckham didn't finish higher than fifth place, foremost among them being the Sun-Times' Chris De Luca, who blasts the BBWAA's voting guidelines ... and then apparently proceeds to argue that Beckham was clearly superior to Andrus in 2009 on the basis of his higher batting average, better "clutch" numbers and lower error totals, dismissing out of hand Andrus's relative youth, baserunning impact, superior defense at a more valuable position, and so on. Whatever. I disagree, but I can't help but feel like writing full-length columns about this is just a huge waste of time.
● Citing a study by the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, David Biderman of the Wall Street Journal writes that over the last two decades, major league teams which have increased their inflation-adjusted Opening Day payroll from one season to the next have improved their win-loss record only 49.5 percent of the time; furthermore, teams which inflated their year-to-year payrolls by $20-plus million added just 0.89 wins on average, whereas teams which pared their payrolls by $20-plus million added 1.89 wins on average.
Note, of course, that this isn't an argument against the virtues of a higher-payroll team; such entities still enjoy a competitive advantage over their less cash-flush counterparts, as they can afford to attract, acquire and/or retain more high-level talent, and I'm not sure how much this study really tells us when you figure that payroll raises are often primarily attributable to the increased cost of keeping your own players through salary arbitration and/or long-term contracts. It does, however, serve as a gentle reminder that increased payroll is a commodity wasted without a solid foundation and long-term plan in place.
● And two hot stove items of potential interest: (a) according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney, the Marlins are drawing "major interest" in the arbitration-eligible duo of Jorge Cantu and Ricky Nolasco (the latter of whom I've coveted for more than a year now), and (b) FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi suggested on Monday that the Rangers are among a gaggle of contending teams which have touched base with free agent left-hander Billy Wagner; whose Type A eligibility has evidently not quelled leaguewide interest. Can't see how that would make much sense for Texas.
Reader Comments (16)
I firmly believe Andrus deserved the award for overall excellence and improvement over the entire season. Having watched Beckham play a bit, and considering the job Porcello did as a 20 yo on a playoff contending rotation, I could see it going to one of them. Bailey winning reminds me of when Bob 'the Hammer" Hamlin won for KC as a rookie DH in the 90's.
I like Billy Wagner, but I don't believe he's worth the double whammy to the teams resources, premium $ and premium draft compensation.
The Marlins always move good players and they do it early. Get in there, JD, and see what they want for Nolasco.
Man... I was so freakin' dissapointed Andrus didn't win! Bailey hardly was the superior player to Elvis. Elvis should have been considered over Bailey on the plain and simple fact that he played (mostly) every single day and (mostly) every single inning! Bailey jumps in an inning here and there and accumulates 20+ saves... how is that better than Elvis? Freakin' ridiculous...
If they let Byrd go, they get a Supp pick for him -- helping supplement the pick they'd lose for Wagner. Wagner still throws hard, and I believe can still be a viable spot in the back of a bullpen. CJ goes to starter you need a good backend bully guy.
I'm not a fan of signing Type A free agents, but with the Rangers quantity of early picks this season and for Wagner... I'd consider it rather thoroughly.
I'm down with Nolasco too, but Joey, realize that Cruz is part of the package going back for him. Can you handle that? :)
Just a few names I wanted to toss out there and see what everyone's opinion of them is:
CF Rick Ankiel who could be had for a reasonable contract possibly (assuming we lose Byrd and don't believe Borbon can take over the center job right now)
and
RF Jeff Francoeur - the obvious first reaction is that he won't take a pitch ---ever--- which is true, but considering that the Rangers have reported interest in Vlad who also doesn't take a pitch and who's probably regressing faster than nearly any contract we would give him would warrant. If nothing else Francoeur can hit lefties and doesn't completely make a fool of himself vs. righties. I'd think him and Murphy would make a dandy platoon option in an outfield corner/DH if necessary and I don't believe it would take a lot to aquire him from the Mets.
Wagner demanded that Boston not offer him arbitration as part of the trade. Doesn't that negate the fact that he is a type A? Did Boston not agree?
Andrus impacted the Rangers' fielding from game one thru game 162. The other candidates cannot make the same claim. Add in Andrus' .267 BA and he should have been the clear cut winner. Should have been 1) Andrus 2) Porcello 3) Bailey
Sniffing around Wagner has to be a rumor. Why would the Rangers even consider him? Maybe if Wilson ends up starting, but then the Rangers would have to forfeit a draft pick. Seems unlikely to me.
Josh is correct, Wagner has no comp pick attached to him, which could be a large part of the Rangers' interest. CJ to the roto, Wagner 1yr +option contract as closer, and FX@ moved in another trade?
Wagner has said he might accept if offered. I'm guessing Boston would not likely offer, as he won't get nearly as much open market as he would get in arbitration. Unlike in the past not offering arbitration doesn't kill your negotiating rights with the player.
I'd consider taking a 3-4 million flyer on him if he hit the FA market. At the worst if he comes in and performs well you might be able to pull a Gagne with him.
Oh gosh, I would be elated if the Rangers could acquire Nolasco. That would be absolutely terrific. This is the first article I have seen in a while that suggests the Marlins will listen to offers for Nolasco. With our defense behind him, he would be a tremendous pitcher. I would certainly be willing to give up a lot to get him.
Oh and signing Wagner would make plenty of sense. In fact, by adding Wagner, Texas could have a perfectly aligned bullpen.
CJ would be the closer, since he seems less effected by pitching on back to back days than Francisco. Frankie can be the primary 8th inning man. And Wagner/O'Day can split the 7th inning duties, depending on the match up. O'Day and Wagner would be perfect complements to each other, as they could allow Washington to have lefty and righty specialist.
Plus, if Texas elects to put CJ into the rotation, you would still have three solid relievers (Wagner, Francisco, O'Day) to handle the late innings. Plus, since he won't be offered arbitration per his agreement with the Red Sox, he wouldn't cost a draft pick. Sounds like a good fit to me.
I'd be interested in acquiring both Cantu and Nolasco. Cantu crushes lefties (.892 OPS against lefties in 2009, .865 OPS against lefties in 2008). Murphy is a solid hitter against righties (.842 OPS the last three years) You could platoon Cantu and Murphy at DH and probably get .850 caliber production from that spot.
Cantu could also give Davis some extra days off against lefties. He is a capable defender at first (0.5 UZR/150 in 2009, 1.9 UZR/150 for his career). And of course, everyone here understands why acquiring Nolasco would be an absolute coup for this team.
What does FLA need beyond catching? If they pick their favorite C, and their favorite OF not named Cruz or Hamilton, in the Texas system, which pitcher would it take in addition? Or if it did include Cruz--Perish the thought-- would that allow the pitcher to be a low-level prospect?
How about their choice of C, their choice of Murphy/ Borbon, (or both Golson AND Beltre) their choice of Ross/Kiker/Beavan/Gutierrez/Harrison/ Madrigal and their choice of Arias/German/Lemon
for Nolasco and Cantu.
@ Michael:
I don't think that offer comes anywhere close to landing Nolasco. Cantu doesn't have a huge amount of value, but Nolasco is worth a lot. I would think they would want any offer to start with Cruz or a prospect of the Martin Perez caliber.
Also, German, Lemon, and Arias are not worth much of anything. I think they would target Holland, Feliz, Perez, Hunter, Cruz, and our catchers. I'd be willing to discuss Cruz and maybe Perez, but I wouldn't even think about dealing Holland/Feliz/Hunter.
Thanks, SMR2162,
The trouble with our including one of our catchers is that only one can be counted on as a sure glove right now, and none can be counted on as a sure bat. They don't add nearly as much to any deal as they might end up being worth to us.
Furthermore FLA's catchers, Baker & Paulino seem to be turning out fine.
Next, can they afford to lose Cantu when they're already losing their top two 1st basemen (Nick Johnson & Gload) to free agency, and their next best 3B (Bonifacio) had an OPS of .611?
Next, they seem to need Nolasco even more than we do. 4 of 6 of their SPs are interesting but not yet consistent .
And finally, they seem stronger in the outfield than the infield, with Maybin, Ross, and Coughhlan (the Rookie of the Year), therefore not needing Cruz as much as they need to keep Cantu.
So, on second thought, I only see FLA trading Uggla, and we don't need him. So I think we have nothing to talk about with them that wouldn't do each team more damage than good.
New thought:
Think they'd consider Smoak, Hunter, Murphy (& German)
or Davis, Hunter, Cruz (& German)
for Nolasco, Ross & Cantu?
(I include German merely as their insurance while seeking a 3B)
I'd rather trade Millwood and we pay his salary than give up Hunter...
Maybe Millwood, his salary and one of our 2nd tier pitching prospects (eg Madrigal or Ross)