On The Vladimir Guerrero Rumor
Joey Matschulat
Vladimir Guerrero whacks a run-scoring single against the Yankees on Sunday, October 25th.Once again illustrating that it's criminally easy to find something compelling to write about during this bustling period in the off-season timeline, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi report that the Texas Rangers are interested in free agent designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero, whose base contractual demands could apparently sit in the $3-5 million range. Not terribly surprising, but definitely something worth mulling over.
That interest harmonizes with the leave-no-stone-unturned philosophy that the front office seems to have adopted, as evidenced by the number of different players/agents that the Rangers have touched base with throughout this week's proceedings in Chicago, but the one thing we're left to ponder is what that "interest" -- which was, of course, relayed by an unnamed source -- really means in this context.
If, for example, a source learned that Jon Daniels and Guerrero's agent -- exactly whom that is, I'm not sure -- chatted for two minutes and then dispersed, does that brief conversation constitute "interest"? The point is that it's prudent to subdue our natural tendencies to overreact whenever eye-opening but vague rumors like this one crop up, because it's far likelier than not that it will end up going nowhere.
And what if it does end up going somewhere? If you operate off the assumption that a non-reinforced Rangers squad would field, say, a .275/.335/.450-hitting amalagamation of players at the designated hitter spot in 2010, and that this hastily assembled group would amass 1½ wins above replacement over the course of a full season, then what you're probably needing to get out of Guerrero in a similar number of plate appearances (say, 600 or so) in order to attain one additional win in the standings is .300/.350/.480-caliber production -- doable, certainly, but dicey given the physical problems that seem to be afflicting him. If you crave a two-win improvement, cross your fingers for a repetition of the .303/.365/.521, 27-homer campaign that Guerrero enjoyed in 2008.
There was, in fact, a time when he could be relied upon to generate some real surplus value above and beyond his paygrade, but the elite-level bat has been emasculated by the atrocious defense in recent years; then again, Guerrero wouldn't be acquired with the intention of playing him in the field, so if you're at all confident that an age-35 Guerrero can rebound offensively on the basis of his enormous baseball talent, then snagging him at a discounted price makes some sense.
That's also the only way it makes any sense, because such a signing would entail considerable risk -- lack of defensive flexibility, age/injury concerns, slumping walk rates, reduced pool of funds to acquire additional talent -- and if the Rangers can't lessen their chances of getting burned by laying down only $3-4 million before rolling the dice, then they would probably be best served by pursuing alternative means of bolstering the lineup.
Reader Comments (17)
I don't think is good enough to convince me, Guerrero would be a nice addition to the Rangers on DH spot. I has also a very good avg in the ballpark of Arlington. Plus no Ranger batter had at least better avg than Vlad. I'm very confident that he is going to be better than previous season, and a little better around the 300 at least. That's better than A. Jones last season.
Interesting. I don't really care one way or the other but, doesn't VG bring the exact opposite approach to the plate than that which the Rangers are hoping to impart next year?
Good point. Plus, last season wasn't a sudden injury-related aberration, but part of a steady decline. He's been one of the best, but Moreland could match him now, and play back-up 1B (and lefty-specialist?) to boot!
I think you both guys have a point, maybe Moreland or even Smoak and Ramirez step up but I think that it would be a good addition, he is not going to be that bad and even with his undisciplined approach doesn't he still hits for avg? I mean in Anaheim he did not had any protection and still hit high avg and made them better. With the addition of Abreu he it was clear that American Division Vlad was better than previous years even when he had Tex ahead or behind him. I think he would be better than Dye, Milton or Cameron...
3 to 5 mill a year is not that expensive...It could be a good bargain..
This is simple tire-kicking -- if it's even that -- and nothing more. Someone over at LSB suggested that this might be a ploy to bring down Bradley's price, could be.
While Vlad has traditionally killed us, it's never safe to assume that a player will perform the same way on the other side (isn't that how we ended up with Brandon McCarthy?). I gotta think you have to stay away from this guy. Just imagine spending 4 million on one year. Would we still have enough money to sign our two first round draft picks? How about any compensation picks if we lose Pudge and Byrd? For me the best case scenario for Vlad is for him to go back to LA. They've already got three Type A free agents and Vlad makes one Type B. I don't really see Figgins going anywhere, and if Darren Oliver goes anywhere, it would be to a team who owns a protected first round pick. I think we should hope that all of their players end up back with them (and that they start to break down).
My personal preference would be to avoid the free agent market entirely (unless Ben Sheets can actually pass a physical). There's plenty of players out there available through trade.
I agree w/ Dave H. Unless Sheets is healthy, and we trade KM to make room for him, the only FA I'm interested in is Reed Johnson, He's a decent CF (good FP, but help me on the UZR and RZR), terrible against RHP, but 403OBP .500SLG .324AVG vs LHP.
He sounds like the perfect complement to Borbon in CF or Murphy in LF if Boggs shoulder is still injured, and yet bad enough vs RHPs to be cheap..
How about Millwood, Murphy, Gentry & Arias for Lilly, Bradley & Miles (and we sign Johnson after the Cubs don't).
Vlad's done, Dye's priced too high, and no thanks to bringing Bradley back no matter how much of the tab the Cubs are willing to pick up. So who's DH'ing????
Michael...Don't much think Texas is in a position to pick up an additional 24 mil. in contracts w/ the Cubs trade. Besides Lilly just had his shoulder cleaned out.
Against RHP we'll be fine using our non-fielding OF of the day... from Borbon/Murphy/Hamilton/Cruz (with German as the emergency in-game back-up if one of the 3 fielders goes down).
The question remaining is "Who's our DH-- and who are our OF'ers, for that matter-- against LHP?" We have only Hamilton hitting LHP (Not even Byrd was hitting them). Cruz, a righty, should eventually. Murphy improved at it last year, Borbon is so-so at it. Boggs was terrific vs LHP in '08, but injured/ergo terrible in '09.
It seems that from Max/Smoak/Moreland, all traditionally strong vs LHP, we could get (and develop!) as good or better a DH vs LHP as those on the FA market, so our real question should be "Who will our 2nd & 3rd OFs be vs LHPs?" If Cruz OR Murphy = one of them for development's sake, shouldn't
we at least get (by trade if not by FA) one OF (eg Reed J) who can hit LHPs, and preferably handle
CF?
ps Moreland's ability to play RF is another reason to bring him up as our DH vs Lefties. If Moreland AND one of Max/Smoak are shining in ST, then our question may be answered from within.
pps Thanks for the note on Lilly, BPowell. It seems, though, with Lilly's, Bradley's and Millwood's contracts being so high, and the Cubs knowing they need to eat most of the salary (while being interested in Millwood at cost), the Rangers (interested in Lilly for Millwood money?) could still make a case for making that trade, paying only what they're only planning to pay Millwood, Murphy, Arias & Gentry plus maybe 8 Million divided over 2 years, which they could swing.
Well I think positively on Vlad if there is any RH hitter FA and if it is between Dye Glaus and Vlad. You know how sometimes GM's do weird choices, like the one from catalonoto and seriously Andrew Jones? well I hope that they keep our current outfielders and if they are trading anyone well at least use that player for a good trade....
I'd still opt for Nick Johnson if someone were to twist my arm. Vlad hasn't taken a pitch since Montreal.
Allow me to throw out another name: Pittsburgh C/1B/RF Ryan Doumit. A switch hitter with a career line of .273/.332/.448 -which is awful close to the .275/.335/.450 Joey suggested we'd get from our DH this year anyway- but he is one year removed from a .318/.357/.501 line. I think he'd be an ideal situation since he could play 1B or RF in a pinch, and if he rebounds to '07 form, you could afford Smoak even more time in the minors instead of assuming he'll be ready to assume a full time role in this upcoming season.
What I like about the idea of carrying a 3rd catcher, be it Max or Pudge via free agency or Doumit via trade, it allows Salty to get consistent at-bats as DH even when he's not catching IF he starts becoming the hitter we traded for. His potential is higher than anyone we could sign or trade for. Yet he has been no better so far than Davis pre-AAA-return. If he does get hot, DH'ing him when he's not catching could keep him that way. If he doesn't get hot, and we need tea to play against LHPs, Max or Pudge (Doumit?), who hit well against LHP could DH if we carry 3 catchers.
4 outfielders who hit righties and 2 out of 3 catchers who hit lefties on the roster would combine to solve our DH problem. If Doumit hits lefties and plays decent OF, he (like Moreland?) could solve the (bigger) OF problem as well!
Nick Johnson would be perfect except he's a lefty. Granderson is also a lefty, if I remember correctly. Vlad would be a great addition, even though he's a free swinger, but he's getting a bit long in the tooth and has had some injury problems. They do need another RH bat - and maybe 2 if they end up trading Cruz like so many think they will. Should be interesting to see what JD does - as I posted on another article, I don't think Texas will do anything crazy this off-season.
Simply getting this guy on our team makes us better because of subtraction from the Angels and his uncanny ability to spank the Rangers...You "thinkers" don't see whats right in front of you...You can't see the forest for the trees.
salty can't hit why would you want more AB's for that guy
quit suggesting all these other spares who can't play any better than what we've got...