Wednesday Morning Rangers Notes: Twenty-Five Days To Chaos
Joey Matschulat
With the ridiculous surge in off-season news arising from assorted roster moves, market chatter and provocative quotes, I'm beginning to think that maybe, just maybe, once-per-day updates should go flying out the window and shorter, but equally pithy twice- or thrice-per-day updates should become the new norm:
● The Rangers and Cubs have been intently talking about a deal that would send oft-maligned outfielder Milton Bradley to Texas; however, Chicago would have to consume at least half of the remaining $21 million on his contract in order to get the Rangers to bite (Jeff Wilson, Fort Worth Star-Telegram)
[Daring-but-not-so-daring prediction of the month: This trade gets done. As I see it, Texas is in the mix, Tampa Bay is in the mix and everybody else is warily observing the proceedings from behind the velvet rope; for example, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times casually mentions that the Mets "want no part of Bradley," and it is this opinion which I suspect is the prevailing opinion throughout the general managerial fraternity right now.
Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune adds some always-welcome stirring of the pot, citing major league sources who believe that the Rangers are Jim Hendry's best option if he wants to divest Bradley before baseball's winter meetings commence on December 7th. Notwithstanding the rumor that he was "called onto the carpet" during his time in Texas and the fact that certain players reportedly still harbor feelings of resentment towards him, the probable two-win boost at a discounted rate would make for a nifty little piece of roster enhancement ... and a much more interesting clubhouse.]
● Texas "could be willing to talk about trading somebody like Brandon McCarthy" as they work vigorously to bolster their 2010 roster (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
[Now, I'm not averse to trading pitching in the slightest, but trading McCarthy now (a) strikes me as the epitome of potentially counterproductive player exchanging, because even in a bear market for free-agent pitching you're likely not going to extract much value out of him, and (b) selling low on a league-average starting pitcher whose health and effectiveness seem to be about as close to stabilizing as they have been since he arrived in Texas is probably a bigger gamble than one would think it to be.
Interesting little factoid: the Rangers' 2009 Opening Day starting rotation amassed the fifth-lowest number of starts in baseball (79), a number which is obviously skewed by the inclusion of Kris Benson ... but, hey, didn't plenty of other teams take chances on back-end guys as well? Yeah, the heart of the 2010 starting rotation is reasonably solid, but I can't shake the feeling that this vaunted and oft-cited "pitching depth" is being overplayed a little bit -- or a lot. Incur just two injuries, and a team with designs on competing for a division title is suddenly tapping into a pack of wild cards comprising Matt Harrison, Eric Hurley, Dustin Nippert, and Guillermo Moscoso. Not terrible, but not something I'm overly eager to test.]
● The Rangers have tentative plans to meet with Byrd's agents, Seth and Sam Levinson; Texas is "moderate[ly] interest[ed]" in Rockies corner infielder Garrett Atkins, who is expected to be non-tendered; the Rangers' discussions with the Braves regarding a potential trade for veteran right-hander Javier Vazquez have been impeded by his salary, and there is apparently mutual interest between Vazquez and the Braves regarding a potential long-term deal that would remove him from the trade market (Jeff Wilson, Fort Worth Star-Telegram; David O'Brien, Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
[Flashback to October 14th: "Atkins, who turns 30 on December 12th, seems to better align with the manager's insistence that the Rangers find a right-handed power hitter equipped to handle first base, and has indeed been murderous against southpaws in 792 career plate appearances, swatting 29 home runs and hitting .301/.384/.486 with a nearly 1:1 walks-to-strikeouts ratio. Yeah, the downwards career trajectory is of the utmost concern, but perhaps he's one of those change-of-scenery guys who, in the event of his non-tendering, will eye Texas as a prime locale to rehabilitate his value. Or not."]
● As expected, Rangers outfielder Marlon Byrd and catcher Ivan Rodriguez garnered Type B free agent classifications in the newly released Elias Sports Bureau rankings; none of the Rangers' other five free agent-eligible players (Joaquin Benoit, Hank Blalock, Andruw Jones, Eddie Guardado and Omar Vizquel) were ranked (Ed Price, MLB FanHouse)
[Absolutely no surprises here (as we discovered back on September 30th), although what happens with Rodriguez still figures to be just about as compelling a storyline as one could possibly expect to develop around a backup catcher. Come to think of it, all of the Rangers' catchers hit like backups in 2009, with the likes of Gerald Laird and Rod Barajas faring similarly awful ... but that's a post for another time.
The Kansas City Star's Bob Dutton wrote earlier this week about the Royals' -- and, more specifically, general manager Dayton Moore's -- desire to acquire a viable backstop that would allow them to non-tender the defensively challenged John Buck, kindling some thought that Moore's experience with Jarrod Saltalamacchia during the pair's days in the Braves organization just might be the foundation upon which a mutually beneficial deal could be built. That's probably a tad presumptuous, but if something were to develop and talks were to reach an advanced stage, bringing Pudge back would make a lot more sense. I think.]
Quick Hits: Third baseman Michael Young reports that his left hamstring "feels good," but he's also taking extra precautions to protect his legs through the off-season ... The Dallas-Fort Worth chapter of the BBWAA has designated right-hander Scott Feldman as the Texas Rangers' 2009 Pitcher of the Year ... Long-time Rangers umpire room manager Richard Price has been promoted into the role which, up until recently, had belonged to now ex-clubhouse manager Zach Minasian.
Reader Comments (13)
I'm still a definite no on Garrett Atkins. He's on the Hank Blalock career path, and I have no interest in him being this year's... well "Hank Blalock". I'm sure Clint Hurdle will push for him though. Hurdle obtusely sticking with Atkins for so long is one of the reasons he ended up getting fired last year, and Atkins replacement at 3rd was one of the major reasons the Rockies improved once Hurdle was gone.
I don't think our pitching depth is more shaky than we think. With the exception of Moscoso, all of those guys have had some level of success starting at the ML level, and though the H's are coming off injury, I think having more experience under their belts will only help them improve. Feliz will also join that discussion at some point next season, and I still expect the Rangers to make a move for a frontline starter either via trade or free agency. I think it will surprise some people. Now's the time to trade some of our talent before it sours.
Joey,
As Sabermagicians, using--What?-- Fangraphs, BAPIP, GB/FB ratio, RAR, WAR and Peace, birthdate, shoesize..--I don't know, but it works!-- you can say what a player was worth compared with his salary, and what we might expect from him next year. (For example there's an excellent example of the "next year" portion of this on LSB re Chris Davis).
Could you run the numbers on KMillwood and DMurphy? It seems to me that Millwood's '09 was good enough to warrant about 12 million in this market (and yet not so good that we can't afford to trade him), and that Murph's value in '09 was well above what we paid (and yet nothing we couldn't get by giving more AB's to Cruz, Borbon and a LHP-hitting OF-DH replacement for him). So those seem the best 2 for us to trade-- not those who are valued low right now.
If my glasses are too rose-colored, can you show me with those nifty comps you are able to draw?
Thanks again for great stuff!
I'm afraid Salty's trade value is way down right now due to the injury - remember, Jeremy Bonderman has missed essentially two entire seasons after the same surgery. Everybody is different, of course, but I think it would be hard to trade Salty to a team that is looking for a starting catcher because he may not be somebody they can depend on.
Agreed on Salty, especially if not yet healthy. If they want assured D, they'd go after Tea, but we shouldn't sell low on him either.
It would be funny if we could essentially swap CFs with the Cubs (Reed & Byrd, both FAs if the Cubs don't pick up the option). I still think we should look into targeting him if any, as Julio's CF platoon partner (and then trading high enough on Murph). But I haven't seen how Reed fared as a UZR of a RZR... Does he have a beard?
Atkins is legit. He has been a slow starter and Tracy gave up on him right when he was getting hot. Over the previous 4 years, he was one of the top 10 hitters in the majors.
I don't get the inclusion of Millwood in the Bradley talks, until its a one for one deal with the Cubs picking up ALL the salary and the Rangers using Millwood's piece to sign Sheets. Other than that, I don't get it.
I have no desire to trade Salty and I'm definitely in the minority but I really think Max Ramirez will bounce back and be a good bench player for the Rangers, taking the spot of Andruw Jones and giving the team good offense from that bench spot.
Damn - pictures like that make me understand why McLean keeps breaking his scapula. Dat looks crazy wrong!
The Rangers do have surplus starting pitching..... especially if they trade for a #1 or #2 starting pitcher. McCarthy clearly does not fit the 2010 Rangers; neither does Saltalamacchia IMHO.
KC would not only be interested in Saltalamacchia..... but several of the high-ceiling Rangers pitching prospects including Hurley, Poveda, and Kiker. Sounds like a great opportunity for a win-win trade.
Once again my wild trade suggestion
Call up KC and offer Kevin Millwood plus any 4 players in the Rangers system who are not on the 40 man roster for Grenke. The Royals could choose any players plus Millwood.
Just for fun: Sheppers, Smoak, Kiker, Bevan and Millwood for Grenke? It might take that kind of deal to get him. This would be a huge hit on the farm system but you'd Grenke with a 4 year contract. Would you do it? Would the Royals?
Mike: I'm not entirely sure what you're asking, but if it's whether I would be willing to trade Millwood and/or Murphy, then yeah, I'd be just about as inclined to move them as anybody on the roster. The thing I question is whether smart general managers who look past raw ERA and recognize that much of his '09 improvement was rooted in defensive upgrades -- and also recognize that he was worse at doing the things within his sphere of influence, such as avoiding walks and striking out batters -- are going to be all that interested in a declining pitcher with just one remaining year of club control and an eight-digit salary.
Cliff: You do that, and Moore gleefully picks out Scheppers, Smoak, Perez and Font/Gutierrez/Beaven while laughing all the way to the bank. Well, maybe not while laughing, but that front three has the superstar potential necessary to reshape a franchise's future.
And one more thing that's been slowly gnawing at me: Earlier today (well, on Wednesday anyway), my acquaintance/friend Evan Grant wrote at length about Milton Bradley and why his sometimes virulent personality wouldn't mesh well with the Rangers. Lots of good points were made, but these two quotes drove me up the wall:
"It should also be noted that when Bradley played in 2008, the Rangers were 60-66. When he was out of the lineup, they were 19-17. Take that for whatever it's worth."
"Impossible to sort through what Rangers record was with [Bradley] against lefties and without him, but I can tell you that in games he had at least two at-bats against left-handed pitching, the club was 13-25. In the rest of their games against left-handed pitching, the Rangers were 8-6. So, I'm not sure he made any kind of significant difference vs. lefties."
Why is this irrelevant to the discussion? Well, Scott Lucas illustrated it better two years ago than I can when he stated that he "could not overemphasize the silliness of this statistic." Note that in 2007, Mark Teixeira -- a 3.8 WAR player that season, and the club's best offensive player by a wide margin -- had the worst team record differential.
That does NOT mean that Teixeira was not a valuable player or that he didn't make a significant difference, nor does it mean that Bradley did not create substantial value in his own right in 2008. Using team record in games played as any sort of criterion for player evaluation is not a good idea.
I really don't think the Royals would take on Millwood under any circumstances; they're looking only for low cost pre-arb guys this year. Odds of them taking on a hefty contract are really slim when they're still paying high dollars to Meche and Guillen.
Thank you, Joey!
I'll send that to Grant (unless you have already)!
It's a beautiful case study capable of diffusing that otherwise explosive argument, which is a non-sequitur b/c too many factors aren't taken into account (e.g. the pitcher, for example!)
Cheers!