Looking Back On 2005, Looking Forward To 2010
David
Behind a group of talented young position players and several surprising pitching performances, the 2004 Texas Rangers won 89 games after averaging 72 wins per season from 2000-2003. Ryan Drese and Kenny Rogers anchored a staff that improved from 67 runs above replacement (RAR) in 2003 to 122 RAR in 2004. The 2004 bullpen was slightly better than what had been a very good bullpen in 2003 (91 RAR vs. 71 RAR). A slight decline in offensive performance (7 RAR in 2003 to -23 RAR in 2004) was offset by a defensive improvement of 14 RAR in 2004.
In 2005, the Rangers won 10 fewer games and finished the season 79-83. Despite disappointing seasons from Hank Blalock and Kevin Mench (see table below), the team's offense improved to 62 RAR in 2005 behind strong seasons from Mark Teixeira, David Dellucci, Michael Young and Rod Barajas. The 2005 team's improved offense was partially offset by a defense that declined by 37 RAR.
Injuries and ineffectiveness reduced the 2005 rotation to Kenny Rogers, Chris Young and a stream of also-rans and rookies. In addition to the suddenly mortal Ryan Drese, Pedro Astacio, Chan Ho Park, John Wasdin (4.28 ERA), Juan Dominguez (4.22 ERA), Ricardo Rodriguez (5.53 ERA), C.J. Wilson (6.94 ERA), R.A. Dickey (6.67 ERA) and Edinson Volquez (14.21 ERA) all started multiple games. Injuries and ineffectiveness also struck the 2005 bullpen as Carlos Almanzar (14.40 ERA), Ron Mahay (6.81 ERA), Frank Francisco (0 games), and Brian Shouse failed to replicate the success that they had experienced in 2004 (see table). Their replacements were only slightly above league average.
Flash forward to 2009, where a talented group of position players and a surprisingly effective pitching staff led a team that had won 75 games in 2007 and 79 games in 2008 to 87 wins in 2009. The team's offensive woes (0 RAR in 2009 after 110 RAR in 2008) were more than offset by an improved defense (+90 RAR from 2008 to 2009), improved starting pitching (+44 RAR from 2008 to 2009), and improved relief pitching (+29 RAR from 2008 to 2009).
Could a 2005-like regression be in store for the 2010 Rangers? Obviously, injuries and unexpected ineffectiveness can strike anyone at any time. Josh Hamilton and Chris Davis can testify to that. Kevin Millwood and Young are unlikely to match their 2009 performances, though both are likely to be league average or better if they are healthy. Likewise, Scott Feldman, C.J. Wilson, and Darren O'Day will probably not be as good in 2010 as they were in 2009, though a Ryan Drese-like downturn seems unlikely given the success that each player experienced prior to 2009.
Four key differences between the Rangers of five years ago and the current team suggest that the 2010 squad will not experience a downturn in performance similar to the 2005 team.
NO. 1 - PITCHING DEPTH
Instead of relying on re-treads and rookies to fill the back of the rotation and the front of the bullpen, the 2010 Rangers will boast no fewer than nine viable candidates for the starting rotation (Millwood, Feldman, Tommy Hunter, Derek Holland, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz, Dustin Nippert and Guillermo Moscoso). The pitchers who fail to secure spots in the starting rotation will compete with Pedro Strop and Warner Madrigal to fill in around Frank Francisco, Wilson, O'Day and Doug Mathis in the team's bullpen. No more than four of the Rangers' pitchers in 2005 would likely be able to compete with the team's top 12 pitchers entering 2010.
NO. 2 - BOUNCEBACKS
On the 2004 team, only Alfonso Soriano had a season that was less productive than what could have been reasonably expected. In contrast, the 2009 Rangers included less-than-expected performances from Josh Hamilton, Chris Davis, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Ian Kinsler, and Derek Holland. The 2004 Rangers performed near their peak. The 2009 Rangers can get better next season by simply having players perform to their potential.
NO. 3 - AGE
The Rangers' starting lineup in 2004 was among the youngest in the league with an average age of 26.5 years. Most experts correctly predicted that the team's offensive performance would improve dramatically in 2005 as the young players benefited from experience. The average age of the Rangers' 2009 starting lineup was 26.7 years of age and it would not be surprising to see a dramatic improvement in their collective performance in 2010.
The Rangers' ten most productive pitchers in 2004 had an average age of 30.4 years. Without the benefit of a significant talent infusion via trade or free agency, the team's pitching was essentially stagnant in 2005 when the average age for the pitchers climbed to 31.6 years. The Rangers' ten most productive pitchers in 2009 had an average age of 26.1 years. If the team's pitching staff returns intact next season, it should improve simply by being more experienced.
NO. 4 - REINFORCEMENTS
Prior to the 2005 season, Baseball America ranked the Rangers' farm system as the 16th strongest in baseball for the second consecutive season. None of the team's four top 100 prospects (Ian Kinsler, Joaquin Arias, John Danks and Thomas Diamond) were considered elite and only Kinsler had played above High A prior to 2005. The 2010 Rangers are likely to be a top-five system for the third consecutive year, with three top 30 prospects (Justin Smoak, Neftali Feliz and Martin Perez) having already spent time in the upper minors. Tanner Scheppers figures to move quickly and join the list of elite talent that could improve the Rangers next season.
Beyond the top 100 prospects, the 2010 Rangers could receive contributions from any of eleven different players who figure to start the season in AA or AAA -- Brandon Boggs, Max Ramirez, Mitch Moreland, Marcus Lemon, Kasey Kiker, Omar Poveda, Daniel Gutierrez, Blake Beavan, Kennil Gomez, Eric Hurley, and Michael Main.
Reader Comments (12)
All this good information and entertaining reading is just spoiling us. Please stop.
Lots more to work with in 2010 than in 2005. Is it the right combination? There is still a reasonable amount of risk that would be nice to reduce.
I know there is a lot of concern about the offense. I think the offense and defense are the least risky parts of the equation, though, primarily for the reason you stated: age. Hamilton, Kinsler, Cruz are just coming into their own, and I think it's less likely they'll tank this year than it is that Holland or Hunter will tank.
The offense could use one more potent bat, of course, but I think where the team could really reduce its risk of collapse is still in the starting pitching staff. Finding someone to head the staff and push everyone down a slot would do a lot to reduce that risk. Besides, they really would need that type of pitcher to build a playoff rotation around.
So far, I think the Rangers are handling the offseason very well. They don't need to be the big spenders (whether prospects or $$) for a big bat. They can wait in the weeds and get a bat like Mark Derosa who's coming off a down year and who's going to be one of the last to sign because of it. Basically, he'll want to be one of the last good options out there once the top tier is gone in order to maximize his value on the market.
They will have to spend big, though, to get that top rotation guy.
Ted Keith over at CNNSI has a look at the 10 riskiest FAs. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/ted_keith/11/09/risky.free.agents/index.html
Among them:
Rich Harden
Justin Duchscherer
Ben Sheets
Carlos Delgado (bats left)
JJ Putz
I would feel like the offseason was a success if we signed either Sheets or Harden to an incentive laden 1-2 yr contract. But could we get a couple of these guys? And would it make any sense too with our current pitching depth/need for a RH bat.
Another possibility, could we trade Millwood and all of his contact (would anyone take him) and then sign Lackey?
Andrew in Boston, why would anyone take Millwood and ALL of his contract? Yeah, right. You're living in a dream world.
Lackey isn't far behind those other pitchers in risk factor. If the Angels don't re-sign him, that's why. Remember his serious injury that caused them to break off pre-season extension-negotiations with him.
Joey, this article is like a triple-dip banana split for the intellectual leisure-loving aspect of the soul! What, with it's scoop on offense, defense & pitching, and the split of '05 and '09, lying side-by-side: it's delicious! Just what the doctor ordered, to strengthen us for the winter!
With Smoak & Schepp, your list of potentially impacting Minors prospects reaches 13! Wow!
Two hypothetical questions:
1) If it is determined that Julio really isn't cut out for CF, do Main's bat and range as a center fielder warrant a try-out there in the Minors, when he's not pitching? (Are the days of position-playing pitchers over, or might Main, Moreland, Profar... continue honing the skills of both?)
2) Let's say Moreland is still tearing it up as a hitter this spring, so we go with him as our 5th OF, back-up 1B, and DH vs LHPs. Then in Sept, Main is called up, and pitching a gem against all 7 righties, but struggling against the opposing team's 2 lefties... By then Moreland has honed his stuff against lefties to the point of filling in as our lefty specialist... (Bear with me... just for fun) Can't Wash just keep switching Main and Moreland between the mound and RF as long as we have no DH, and they keep their same spots in the batting order...?
Jus' sayin' is all...
If this team went into 2010 with Zack Greinke at the top of the rotation, how would it affect everyone's view of their chances? Here's the deal, with each choice being Kansas City's to make: Hunter or McCarthy plus Scheppers or Perez plus Davis or Smoak plus Kiker or Poveda. That means they could receive a decent young major-league ready arm, plus, if they choose, two of the top four prospects in the Rangers' system, plus an additional decent nearly major league ready pitching prospect. Alternatively, Cruz plus Scheppers or Perez plus Kiker or Poveda plus Moreland or Beltre.
Michael - I think (generally) the days of position-playing pitchers are now over. Boston has their prospect Casey Kelly playing SS for half the year and pitching the other half. From what I've read, Boston is ready to transition him to a full-time starting pitcher. As far as your in-game scenario with Main/Moreland is concerned, I think you've got a good question there. At first I thought "of course they can't do that. As soon as one guy's been switched out, he can't return to the game." Then I realized that they haven't been removed from the game. I have no clue if that would be allowed. Way to completely stump me.
David... really nice article. You're a stat machine! It really gives me hope for next year and gives me ammunition to throw in the faces of the bandwagon NYY and Boston Red Sox fans I know.
I don't think that players can change defensive positions in an inning unless there is an injury.
However, I do remember Rich Cerone (Former Yankee's catcher) coming into pitch in the middle of an inning durring a blowout at Arlington Stadium when a reliever was pulled so I could be wrong. It was the game where Bobby Witt pinch hit for Pete Incaviglia
Oh David (spur dynasty?) it was you (again!)!
I read right past your name, & credited Joey. Nonetheless, you two are on a roll!
As for switching positions, I believe they're irrelevant. Shortstops can play behind second, 1st basemen over by the mound, 2nd basemen halfway into right field... So what we call each player's position matters only in relation to the batting order (which must stay the same per position per game). So I guess it's a question not whether the Pitcher can wander out into RF, but whether the RFer can interrupt the P's pitch count to throw a few pitches before yielding to the (right fielding) pitcher again, and I believe the answer is "yes".
jd21,
I agree that the Rangers should be very aggresive this offseason and pursue Grienke. Texas and KC are set up beautifully for a win-win trade. For Grienke, I believe a better trading match would be: McCarthy, Saltalamacchia, Hamilton, Kiker, and Poveda. Each of these 5 Rangers are surplus talent (especially if Milton Bradley or Marlon Byrd returns to the 2010 club). A rotation of Grienke, Millwood, Feldman, Hunter, Holland, and Feliz is durable and intimidating.