The Case Against Rudy Jaramillo
Ron Washington (left) and Rudy Jaramillo (right) observe batting practice at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on Thursday, July 16th.Early Tuesday morning, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News constructed a thoughtful, passionate and and well-reasoned argument for the retention of long-time -- and unsigned -- hitting instructor Rudy Jaramillo, who has found himself the target of persistent criticism after helming the Texas Rangers' first sub-800-run offense since 1992.
Among the reasons cited by Grant as to why the lineup sputtered to the degree that it did in 2009 were (a) the enormous offensive downgrade from Milton Bradley to Andruw Jones, (b) the heavy reliance upon rookie bats and (c) an unfortunate cavalcade of injuries to the likes of Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler and Michael Young, who collectively lost 60-plus games to the disabled list. All rock-solid, incontrovertible points, and all factors that were, for the most part, beyond Jaramillo's control.
There is, however, another dimension to Jaramillo's rising disapproval rating, something which I believe most have recognized as a concern at one time or another but few have made a real effort to quantify -- the troubling regression in both plate discipline and offensive performance from a majority of returning Rangers hitters, which I think falls within Jaramillo's sphere of influence to a considerable extent and, consequently, demands coaching accountability.
Outlined in the below table are the plate appearance totals, walk-to-strikeout ratios and park-adjusted wOBAs from the 10 Rangers hitters who logged no fewer than 50 major league plate appearances over the last two seasons:
[Red shaded boxes indicate 2009 walk-to-strikeout ratios that were at least 30 percent worse than those which were compiled in 2008, whereas the lone green shaded box indicates an improvement of at least 15 percent in that same category. Click here for a quick and simple primer on wOBA. Skip the next three paragraphs if you want to just cut right to the chase.]
Of the 10 hitters comprising this "study," seven witnessed their walk-to-strikeout ratios sink to extremely dangerous levels, one enjoyed a marked improvement (but was greatly harmed by his well-noted proclivity for fly balls), and two remained fairly static. Note that when I say "extremely dangerous," I mean that very few modern-era teams have scored 800-plus runs with seasonal walk-to-strikeout ratios that poor. There's a line of demarcation in play.
Not surprisingly, all seven red-shaded players watched their wOBAs plummet by at least 30 points, as did Kinsler (for reasons already mentioned); if you want some context as to what exactly what that means, a 30-point plunge in wOBA over 600 plate appearances is equivalent to 15 runs (lost), which is already bad enough when it befalls a single hitter but potentially devastating when it befalls an entire slew of hitters.
As for the red-shaded players themselves ... well, what can you really say? Saltalamacchia and Teagarden have gone backwards in the offensive sense, Blalock was disastrous for the better part of the season, Hamilton struggled well before he ever slammed into the outfield wall during that fateful May afternoon and Davis -- well, Davis has become a rallying cry of sorts for the "Fire Rudy!" crowd, with the public perception being that Jaramillo, after diagnosing Davis's (and the offense's) problems as mostly "mental," didn't do nearly enough to help mend his out-of-sync hitting mechanics. There's undoubtedly more to the story, and I'm not saying that I completely agree with that perception, but it is what it is.
We can't view these results in total isolation, of course. The Bradley-for-Jones swap and the rookies and injuries all negatively impacted the team's overall hitting approach to varying degrees, even if we would like to think that they didn't. That being said, aren't we somewhat justified in raising some red flags when over half of the returning hitters regress BB/K-wise -- and not by a little, but by a lot? Does systematic failure on this scale really fall mostly on the players, or is it more reflective of something that Jaramillo is or is not doing differently? And if the latter is the case, is he really the right man for the job going forward?
The players adore Rudy, management is reticent on Rudy and the fan base is evidently tired of Rudy. It's one of the stranger dynamics I've seen with any baseball coach in recent memory, and I'm not going to pretend that it makes much, if any sense. I do think it's imperative that the first two get on the same page pretty quickly, because as things currently stand, the clubhouse isn't going to be happy if Jaramillo's replaced, and management seems to be trying to distance itself from his aggressive hitting philosophy. One almost gets the impression that there are people are trying to row in opposite directions.
Resolution is within sight, but there are going to be people angry with the outcome no matter what. The secret is in ensuring that the right people end up satisfied.
Quick Hits: Team president Nolan Ryan expects that the Rangers' 2010 budget "will be close" to the franchise's 2009 budget; the Opening Day payroll was roughly $68 million, meaning that there should be some capital available to shore up key weaknesses through the trade market and/or free agency ... Texas has "sincere interest" in bringing back free agent Marlon Byrd ... Tuesday evening's one-game playoff between the Tigers and Twins was, in all honesty, one of the five best baseball games I've ever watched from start to finish. This game is awesome.
17 Comments | in Analysis, Rumors, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (17)
It is baffling how a team can go from 11th on OBP in 2007 to 2nd in 2008 then back to 12th in 2009. I personally want Rudy to go because I don't think the aggressive approach he prescribes to is good for a consistent winning team. I believe that approach costs the team 2-3 wins per year which csn be the difference in making the playoffs and sitting at home in Oct.
Good post. I'm a Rudy guy, and I do think it removing him would be an over reaction. However, as I've previously noted, coaches often lose their voice of effectiveness after a lot of years in one place. Hence, it wouldn't surprise me, nor upset me, to see a change.
To the vociferous "fire Rudy" cabal, get over yourselves. JM, you and I exchanged posts a couple weeks ago about the tenor of sports radio callers, and I think the same premise holds true in blogs. The fact that people get exposed to great insights and information at various sites, particularly Ranger fans, makes some believe that their depth of knowledge is such that they can evaluate from their keyboard more efficiently than the professionals on the field.
To your graph, it's a fair assessment but, it is only one part of a resume. Provided the parties can work out the financials, I would expect Rudy to rise to the challenge of making the adjustments necessary to impact the numbers you've highlighted. After 15+ years I think what we do know about him is, he has typically gotten the most out of what the talent has to offer. He hasn't done that by not knowing how to adjust.
What the Rangers need is an overall organizational change in approach with respect to plate discipline. Rudy is not the guy to deliver that.
I'm glad that I wasn't emotionally involved with either of the teams in the Twins-Tigers game because I would have had a heart attack. That game was off the hook crazy! I guess I'll root for the underdog Twins this postseason.
I do believe it would be a little ridiculous for Rudy to get canned after one bad season... but as A. Stephens pointed out, after many years in one place coaches do tend to possibly lose their voice and effectivness so I'm good with whatever happens. Am I comfortable with either situation... not completely...
A while back there was an analysis in the Insider considering All-or-None hitting. It supported what those of us who have watched the Rangers insticntively know. Rudy's hitter tend to lag in OBP and lead in HRs. Not sure where it stands at seson end, but at one time the Rangers were last or near last in OBP and once again lead in HRs in the AL this year (Away from home ballpark).
The Rangers lack of focus on OBP and situational hitting with the desire to be a 30-30 guy leads to the large number of both high run and low run totals since. The team does not need 6 runs one night and o runs the next night. The pitchers and defense need 3 runs both nights. I picke don Ian because he is a perfect example of what happens when HRs become a dominant hitting goal. His OBP went way down and he became extremely streaky to the point where he desevedly lost the lead off spot and did not make the All Star team yet accomp;lishe dhis goal.
The hitting has to change and letting Rudy go and bringing up the AAA coach that many of the players now on the Rangers worked with as they came up would send a clear message that HRs are great, but OBP and situational hitting is the NEW mantra.
Brilliant article. I was wondering if anyone knew of any cool websites where I could join a club for sports or something. I’ve heard of Clubbz.com, any others? Thanks guys. JB
I will never believe any hitting coach is responsible for players swinging and missing, be it in or out of the strike zone, and regardless of technique. I do, however, believe that situational hitting is directly influenced and orchestrated through the manager, be that with or without a hitting coach's direct involvement. Furthermore, if any manager isn't getting correct fundamental play from his players, the fault for that slop should never filter down to an assistant coach without first laying on that managers doorstep. And if there truly is a gap in philosophy between a manager and his assistant, that problem resides with upper management for not providing proper guidance.
"The buck stops here" should be the sign on the managers door.
Hard to see how you can let Rudy go without Wash going with him or vice versa.
Maybe we should just hire the hitting coach from 2008. Why did the Rangers let that guy go anyway?
The truth is that there isn't a proven player other than Young and Jones and Blalock in the whole lineup. Blalock and Jones weren't in the lineup for most (all in Jones case) of 2008 and that's probably a great indication as to why the OBP for the team was so much better then.
Basing a case to fire Rudy because young guys like Salty, TT, and Davis "regressed" seems rather dumb. So, we know what they're going to be? Well, in Davis' and TT's case we do -- guys who have demonstrated over their entire pro career to be high(er) SO guys -- at every level. That's Rudy's fault?
Hamilton and Cruz? Yeah, they have such a strong track record of big league success I can see where their "regression" is clearly the hitting coach's fault...
And... clearly Young and Murphy are just completely ignoring Rudy since they didn't change at all. Yep, from all I've read and heard about Young and Murphy -- that certainly fits their profile.
Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.
Joey, you guys usually make better cases than this. If this article represents the hard and fast reasons why Rudy should be fired -- I gotta think this 'Fire Rudy' nonsense is nothing more than mob mentality at this point. We should fire Rudy because Davis and TT did in the Majors what they've done their entire minor league career, Salty had a bad 230 PA, Blalock and Jones suck (hmm, too bad we can't get rid of them. Oh, wait...)?
Dumb.
@John: You can easily let Rudy or Washington go because they are not mutually exclusive. Wash didn't hire Rudy, and Rudy has outlasted about 3 coaches now, so it doesn't matter.
I think Rudy should be let go, not because of one bad year, but because of the true statistic that Rudy supporters miss: he's never won anything. He's been here 15 years, and we haven't won a thing with him. And there's no reason to throw a division title, or three, around because it's sad that we wave our division banner like we won the World Series. The name of the game in any professional sports league is to win the hardware, and with Rudy as our coach, we haven't won anything. Why is there such blind allegiance to the man? I think he's a fine hitting coach, and a decent human being, but the job isn't getting done now. Gone are the days of bad pitching, where the only reason to sit out in 100+ degree weather is to see this team bash a bunch of home runs and for the fireworks to ring out like gunshots. Gone are the days where we hang 6 or 7 runs up 2 or 3 times a week. This is a different team. This team had pitching carry them. This team laid down sacrifice bunts, and suicide squeezes, plays not normally seen by the Rangers. And seriously, has anyone forgot that our main problem was situational hitting - e.g. RISP. How many times did Kins, or Cruz, or Hambone come up with a man on base and proceed to whiff?
We need consistency on this team, and I don't necessarily mean players having markedly better years. I'm talking about offensive consistency. I would sacrifice some 6,7,8 run games if it meant less shutout games. We can pound the ball against BORPs all we want, but when you hit a TORP like Greinke or Felix (who we see year in and year out, btw) we need to manufacture runs, and that has never been Rudy's strong suit. Case in point, as much as people tout Rudy's long tenure here, and those divisional titles, does anyone ever stop to remember how those playoff series played out? We lost because the offense that we counted on, lost steam as soon as we ran into the Yankee buzzsaw - EVERY TIME. Who cares if Rudy has a few MVPs to his name (Gonzo, Pudge, A-Rod) all those players have been associated with PEDs - while in Texas!
@A. Stephens: I agree that some coaches voices eventually get tuned out after so long, and maybe that is what happened to Rudy, but consider this: is it possible, that Rudy's long tenure here gets mistaken for success? That maybe since he has kept his job so long, he must know what he is talking about? I don't know if he's the best hitting coach in the game, but that's what people consider him to be, and it just seems like to me our offense has always failed us when we needed it. I guess it's like how people view Tony Romo nationally. He gets all the stats, but come December when he needs to grind it out, he fails.
OK dirty. First of all let me say that I'm not really in favor of firing Rudy (although he's not under contract and we may not be able to afford him anyway). While I partly agree with you, I have some problems with your argument.
1) I don't think Cruz is part of the problem; along with Young, Murphy and, Andrus he's one of the four hitters to meet my expectations. I think his problem was playing time. Aside from his injury he should have been an everyday player (perhaps sitting a game once every two weeks to rest up); Wash's aversion to using him regularly may have kept him from getting a better rhythm going.
2) I think you're right about Teagarden and Salty. They didn't have a ton of playing time, and their track records don't match up with reports of their potential and our expectations. However, Davis is another deal altogether. While CD has historically had high K rates and low BB rates, his K rate was never THAT high. 44% pre all-star break is just ridiculous. 27% is his minor league career average, and he returned to that rate once he returned from AAA (after addressing his mechanics). Here are his pre and post all-star break and minor league slash lines (BA/OBP/SLG):
pre -- .202/.256/.415
post -- .308/.338/.496
minor -- .306/.366/.585
Davis wasn't at all what he was as a minor leaguer. If you took .30 off of each of his numbers (.278BA, .336OBP, and .555SLG), you'd still have MUCH better numbers than his uber slump in the first half. It would also be a slight slump from his debut 1/2 season in 2008. I think that line is a reasonable expectation (maybe somthing more like the .496SLG that he posted post all-star break).
So I'm not really in favor of getting rid of Rudy, but not all arguments for letting him go are "Dumb. Dumb. Dumb."
If another team were going to go out and get the coach who's widely regarded as the best (as we did with Mike Maddux), Rudy would probably be their target. Regardless of what we or the Rangers want to do regarding Rudy, some other team might offer him a raise up to 850K or even 1 million a year. My guess is the most that the Rangers could do is tack an extra 50-100K onto his 600K (if they can offer a raise at all). I'd bet that we lose Rudy. Not because he's getting the blame for a severe offensive regression, but rather because some team blows him away. If he really wants to stay, I'd expect him back in our dugout.
Some team is going to offer Rudy a 1 or 2 year deal and JD is going to sorrowfully report that "TEX just couldn't match. For those interested in attending TEX is hosting a farewell fish fry at the Arlington VFW next Friday evening".
My only hope is that he signs a deal with LAA... will be so funny watching the results as their K numbers go sky high.
Dave H.
I didn't say Cruz was part of the problem. Cruz was probably the 2nd best hitter in the lineup all year long. The "problem" is that Joey -- and A LOT of people -- use "regressions" from players that haven't hit a point in their career from which they can actually regress.
This season, the only players to get any playing time that had any kind of track record where Young, Blalock, and Jones. Blalock should never have even been on the team, and he certainly isn't the kind of "work the count" hitter people are clamoring for now, and not Rudy or anyone else can change him. Certainly we're not going hang Andruw Jones on Rudy (even if Rudy said he could "fix" him) are we? JD should have known better (and probably did).
Davis is a 23 yr old kid who got into a monster slump and had to be sent down. We're going to fire Rudy over that? That's baseball. That happens. Besides, tons of "experts" had serious concerns about his SO rate once he reached the majors. There were signs...
Absolutely, there are legitimate points on firing Rudy. However, Joey didn't really argue any of them in this article. The decision to fire one of the most respected hitting coaches in the game should be based on WAY more than a bunch of young kids struggling with their SO/BB rate in their first or second year in the bigs and Hank effin Blalock sucking. WAY more.
Good thoughts, all (and apologies for the four typos -- I feel so dirty, since typo-free writing is something I try to strive for) ... a few things:
"To your graph, it's a fair assessment but, it is only one part of a resume. Provided the parties can work out the financials, I would expect Rudy to rise to the challenge of making the adjustments necessary to impact the numbers you've highlighted. After 15+ years I think what we do know about him is, he has typically gotten the most out of what the talent has to offer. He hasn't done that by not knowing how to adjust."
Absolutely agree that this is just one piece of the whole puzzle, and I'm inclined to agree that Rudy is capable of making the necessary adjustments. The whole point was to try and show that, yeah, there were a number of factors beyond Rudy's control that hurt the offense, but heavy BB/K erosion -- particularly with the BB component, which I probably should have isolated -- amongst returning hitters suggests that things that are more within Rudy's control aren't going terribly hot, either.
"Hard to see how you can let Rudy go without Wash going with him or vice versa."
There are two ways to interpret this statement: If, on the one hand, you mean that Washington should share equal accountability with Rudy for the struggles of the offense ... well, I don't know that I buy into that premise, but hey, upward flow of responsibility and all. If, on the other hand, you mean that Rudy and Washington are so closely tied that this would become a "keep 'em both or axe 'em both situation," I don't really agree -- as Charles alluded to, Jaramillo is part of the old, non-Washington-affiliated guard, somebody whose offensive philosophy doesn't necessarily dovetail with that of the more patience-oriented Washington.
@Dirty: Appreciate the candid criticism. Dissent is healthy to the conversation. The thing is, yeah, guys like Salty and Teagarden and Cruz and Hamilton haven't really established reliable career baselines ... but what I'm seeing on a micro level, particularly with the catchers, is pretty jarring nevertheless.
Salty, who entered 2009 seemingly on the cusp of a breakout season, found his entire game wrecked by (a) one of the highest swing percentages in baseball, including (b) an exorbitant swing percentage on outside pitches, which is obviously not desirable. Similarly bad things happened with Teagarden -- and in both cases, the problems worsened as the season progressed. Sure, it's probably symptomatic of pressing at the plate, and perhaps that falls completely on the players being inherently aggressive and not at all on Rudy, but it's a very troubling trend and something that I worry the coaching staff isn't doing everything it can do to address.
Never intended for this to be an all-encompassing critique of Rudy, although I can see how the post title might imply as such. Certainly there are other compelling reasons to let him go, many of which have already been touched on here ... in fact, one of the things that Evan Grant has mentioned repeatedly is that Rudy's biggest problem is that he doesn't always effectively convey his message. I wonder if that problem takes on heightened importance with a roster loaded with relatively young hitters.
"Some team is going to offer Rudy a 1 or 2 year deal and JD is going to sorrowfully report that "TEX just couldn't match. For those interested in attending TEX is hosting a farewell fish fry at the Arlington VFW next Friday evening".
This is funnier than it should be.
Late comment, but what the heck. The franchise needs to cut costs. The hitting coach makes more money than any comparable coach in MLB. The hitting coach is 0-for-0 at the plate for his tenure with the Rangers. Looks like an opportunity to save some cash here.
Joey,
Given different circumstances, Salty would have been better served going to AAA for a bit. The kid has routinely struggled initially once moved to a higher level and then after some experience taken off. The big leagues are totally different, and again, I just don't think the struggles of a 24 yr old should be placed squarely on the hitting coach. Certainly it would have been nice to see Davis and Salty get "fixed" by Rudy, but sending guys down and calling them back up has been a part of baseball for eons. It worked for Kendrick in LAAA this season... Salty being sent down would have helped him -- but the Rangers just couldn't do that given their complete lack of experienced catchers throughout the organization. That JD and Co. (and all of us) relied on a 24 yr old kid to help carry the offense from a generally defensive position is probably more of a "shame on us" than a "shame on Salty" or "shame on Rudy." I think maybe we all got ahead of ourselves in our expectations of Salty.
I still believe in Salty as a hitter (though, he looked dreadful at times last season), and I still believe Rudy can help him get where we all thought he was headed.
If everyone wants a hitting coach that forces all hitters to get deep into counts -- and the manager supports this by benching players that don't -- then fire Rudy because that just isn't his style. I believe that kind of thinking to be counter-productive, and I think a knee-jerk reaction to an offensive that was poorly put together and had a bunch of kids in it would be exactly the wrong thing to do.