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Monday
05Oct2009

Appreciating Elvis Andrus, Part II: The Case For Rookie Of The Year

Elvis Andrus swats his first major league hit against the Indians on Monday, April 6th.It was, in the grand scheme of things, a surprisingly successful season, rehabilitative to the long-fractured spirits of innumerable Texas Rangers fans dotting the region's flatlands. It was a season typified by a seismic shift away from the all-hit, no-pitch paradigm of years past and towards a reborn emphasis on the virtues of top-notch fielding, as demonstrated by an incredible 70- to 90-run defensive improvement upon the 2008 squad's atrocious glovework. It was a season that can be built upon.

Of course, it was also a season derailed by crummy plate discipline, underwhelming-to-bad performance at several key positions, devastating injuries and a crushing late-season collapse that extinguished what would have been the Rangers' only 90-win campaign of the decade -- to speak nothing of the golden late-September opportunity to catch the division-winning Angels that slipped away in such gutwrenching fashion. Those issues, among others, are best saved for another day.

Barring the surprise designation of manager Ron Washington as the American League Manager of the Year (an award which will likely land in Mike Scioscia's trophy case), there is but one current Ranger who figures prominently into the post-season awards discussion, that being 21-year-old revelation Elvis Andrus and his legitimately strong candidacy for Rookie of the Year honors.

To the astonishment of few and the heavily labored sighs of many, there's considerable contention among card-carrying BBWAA members as to whom is actually the Junior Circuit's top rookie; FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal believes Andrus merits the hardware, whereas writers such as John Perrotto and Jayson Stark have apparently omitted Andrus from their three-player ballot altogether. A quick glance at the top rookies' end-of-season "total runs" breakdowns -- using data mined from Bill James Online and The Hardball Times -- suggests that this is, at very best, a glaring omission, and at worst something so completely asinine that we should just tune out the whole awards rigamarole:

[From BJO: "Originally published in The Fielding Bible Volume II, Total Runs ('TR') calculates a total value for each player based on his contributions on offense and on defense. There are four elements to Total Runs: runs created ('RC'), runs saved ('RS'), baserunning runs ('BR'), and a positional adjustment that enables a comparison of players across positions ('PA')." Pitchers use Pitching Runs Created, a statistic originally devised by David Gassko.]

I don't profess to be objective about Andrus, nor do I really want to be, but there's definitely something to be said for constructing well-rounded rookie credentials; he posted a rock-solid .322 wOBA over a 540-plate appearance span in his age-20 season, supplied ample baserunning value in the form of a 33-for-39 success rate, spearheaded the Rangers' defensive movement and showcased all of the qualities that voters adore: Web Gem-capturing flashiness, a hard-working disposition, a burning desire to win, highly marketable charisma -- the whole works. You name it, he's got it.

And to a certain extent, therein lies the problem with Andrus's enormous lead in the above table ... how much do the voters really value defense when it comes right down to it? If you're of the mindset that traditional statistics remain the driving force in the awards balloting (e.g. batting average, home runs, W/L records, etc.), his defensive value ends up being hardly paid any attention whatsoever by the electorate; meanwhile, Bailey, who actually leads all rookies in WPA (win probability added) by virtue of pitching numerous high-leverage innings for Oakland, converts his glittery 1.84 ERA, 26 saves and 91 strikeouts into flourishing voter support.

A quick scan of these same eight front-running rookies using a somewhat more fashionable statistic (wins above replacement) reveals a mostly unchanged ordering, with one enormous exception -- Anderson, by virtue of having logged a very sturdy fielding-independent ERA of 3.69 over 175.1 innings, ranks as a 3.8-win player, whereas the likes of Romero, Niemann and Andrus all sit right around the three-win mark, peering up towards the stratosphere.

Indeed, it's a tad difficult to fathom why Anderson is garnering so little support relative to the competition, and I suspect a big part of that has to do with (a) his pedestrian win-loss record, which resided below the .500 mark for the better part of the season and finished at a very unsexy 11-11, as well as (b) the perception that Oakland Alameda-County Coliseum is a very pitcher-friendly venue. The fly in the ointment there, however, is that he still grades out as an exemplary hurler in 2009 even with the inclusion of park factors, and maybe that places him well ahead of the pack in a valuation sense, even if nobody really wants to acknowledge it.

Now that I've laid out all of that statistical evidence in favor of Anderson, I'm going to throw it all to the wind in my personal designation of Andrus as the league's best rookie ... but as I've mentioned before in this space and will undoubtedly mention again, how much should we really care about how the BBWAA faction leans? Sure, it would make for some nice personal affirmation for Elvis and the organization as a whole, but the important thing is that we know how much he has meant to the Rangers, how integral he is to the impending success of the franchise and what a special talent he has developed into.

Sixteen months ago, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus wrote the following of Andrus: "Stock report: Down significantly. Scouts are tired of hearing about how young and toolsy he is; he's at Double-A and it's time to produce." I wonder if those same scouts still feel that same way right now.

[Stay tuned to Baseball Time in Arlington for a brief conversation with top Latin American Rangers prospect Jurickson Profar, slated for publication later today.]

Reader Comments (6)

The other consideration, I feel, is that Elvis played in about 140 games and continually produced all season long. How much credit should we give to a person who plays a couple times a week on a bad team?

October 5, 2009 at 8:38 AM | Unregistered CommenterJesse

Isn't Goldstein the one that hated on Andrus or am I mistaking him with somebody else?

October 5, 2009 at 8:56 AM | Unregistered CommenterClayton

I certainly appreciate the work that Elvis did this season, and hope he gets the (meaningless) award if for no other reason than to stop the references to Mike Hargrove being our last ROY.

I also appreaciate the work that Joey, Jason, David and Trip have put into the site this season. I am not able to post as often as i used to, but still try to get by to read when i can. Y'all are doing a great job, and i look forward to your offseason work.

October 5, 2009 at 10:24 AM | Unregistered Commenterbriant

@Clayton: I wouldn't say "hated on" so much as I would "was very critical of," perhaps to an excessive degree ... as recently as last December, here is what KG wrote of Andrus:

I'm a guy who just isn't an Andrus believer, and there's a reason for that. Offensively, he's a guy without secondary skills. He doesn't work the count very well and he doesn't have any power. He's a very good defensive shortstop, but he's not a crazy great defensive shortstop; he's not a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop, he's a really good shortstop. I feel the guy is going to hit .280 or .290 and steal some bases, but at the same time he's going to draw 30 walks and hit four home runs for you. He's an everyday shortstop that is going to hit seventh for you. That's not an All-Star, that's a regular shortstop. I mean, what has he really done? He's not just going to find it. It's not there to find.

Curiously enough, Andrus leads all American League shortstops in UZR (+10.1 runs), with KG's prior concern over Andrus's lofty minor league error totals only being a small factor (-2.1 runs). That isn't to say Elvis doesn't have some work to do in terms of error prevention, but when you pull down the highest UZRs and +/-'s of any shortstop in your league, that strikes me as being Gold Glove-caliber defense.

As for the dearth of "secondary skills," Andrus pulled down a respectable 7.7 percent walk rate, swiped bases at an 85 percent success rate and exhibited a little more pop than some expected, and any shortstop who compiles a three-win season at the age of 20 (with two wins being league average and four wins being All-Star level) is not a "regular shortstop," in my opinion.

October 5, 2009 at 1:50 PM | Registered CommenterJoey Matschulat

Joey,

When are you going to give the final defensive stats? You seem to of.... slacked off a bit late in the summer. :)

October 5, 2009 at 3:10 PM | Unregistered Commenterrob m

Yeah, I'm probably going to try and do something with those numbers sometime this week in a main page post. I'm still floored that the entire difference between this year's club and last year's club in the standings was, in essence, powered by the defense...yeah, the defense-independent pitching was also better to some extent, but the hitting pretty much offset that.

October 5, 2009 at 5:34 PM | Registered CommenterJoey Matschulat

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