The Rangers And Baseball America
DavidIn a recent chat, Baseball America (BA) honcho Jim Callis was asked if any team had a better set of three prospects than the Ranger’s Smoak, Feliz, and Perez.
Callis’ reply? “Nope. That’s the best prospect trio.”
In an earlier chat, Callis was asked about the placement of Aroldis Chapman among baseball’s elite prospects and his reply suggests that the Rangers’ top three prospects will likely rank among BA’s Top 20 when the publication comes out with its 2010 list in February.
“For me, Chapman would rank in the upper quarter of our 2010 Top 100 Prospects list, but I wouldn't put him ahead of Montero and he wouldn't be the No. 1 prospect for several other clubs. I'd take Jason Heyward (Braves), Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner (Giants), Dustin Ackley (Mariners), Mike Stanton (Marlins), Strasburg (Nationals), Brian Matusz (Orioles), Pedro Alvarez (Pirates) and Neftali Feliz, Justin Smoak, or Martin Perez (Rangers) ahead of Chapman without a moment's hesitation.” – Jim Callis
With Scheppers turning heads in the Arizona Fall League, it appears that the Rangers will have four players in BA’s 2010 Top 100 list. Those four players will likely rank the Rangers minor league system among the top 5 in baseball behind the Rays (Jennings, Hellickson, Moore, Davis, Brignac, Beckham) and alongside the Indians (Santana, Rondon, Chisenhall, Weglarz, Knapp), Braves (Heyward, Freeman, Teheran, Delgado), and Mets (Mejia, Martinez, Davis, Holt, Flores).
If BA does rank the Rangers among the Top 5 systems in baseball, it will be the team’s third consecutive such finish after ranking #4 in 2008 and #1 in 2009. The Rangers would be the 11th team to accomplish that feat in the last fifteen years. The previous ten are the Rays (2007-2009), Angels (2003-2007), Dodgers (2004-2006), Brewers (2004-2006), Twins (2003-2005), Marlins (1996-1999), Red Sox (1996-1998), Dodgers (1995-1997), and Braves (1992-1996). The interesting thing about those ten teams is that they have combined to make the playoffs 31 times within three years of their runs of minor league brilliance (see below). 10 teams, 31 playoff appearances. That’s more than 3 playoff appearances per run of BA championships.
|
Team |
Top 5 Ranking |
Playoff appearances |
Graduates |
|
Rangers |
’08- |
|
5 (+5)* |
|
Rays |
’07- |
‘08 |
6 (+4)* |
|
Angels |
’03-‘07 |
’04, ’05, ’06, ’07, ’08, ‘09 |
10 (+1)* |
|
Dodgers |
’04-‘06 |
’04, ’06, ’07, ’08, ‘09 |
10 |
|
Brewers |
’04-‘06 |
‘08 |
5 |
|
Twins |
’03-‘05 |
’03, ’04, ‘06 |
7 |
|
Braves |
’03-‘05 |
’03, ’04, ‘05 |
7 |
|
Marlins |
’96-‘99 |
‘97 |
11 |
|
Red Sox |
’96-‘98 |
’98, ‘99 |
7 |
|
Dodgers |
’95-‘97 |
’95, ‘96 |
6 |
|
Braves |
’92-‘96 |
’92, ’93, ’95, ’96, ’97, ’98,’99 |
9 |
*Indicates the number of Top 100 prospects that remain in the team’s minor league system from the years the team was ranked as a Top 5 system
Five of the Rangers’ Top 100 prospects from 2008 and 2009 have already graduated to the majors (Andrus, Feliz, Holland, Davis, and Teagarden). Assuming Scheppers makes the BA Top 100 list in 2010, then the Rangers will have five more current or former Top 100 prospects begin 2010 in the upper minors. Smoak, Scheppers, Perez, MaxRam, and Hurley could all impact the major league team within the next couple of seasons. Ten Top 100 graduates would rank the Rangers’ ’08-’10 classes as one of the more prolific runs of the past twenty years.
Reader Comments (13)
I believe the numbers are equally compelling for the systems achieving a top 5 ranking just two years in a row. I think it was 17 of the last 18 to be in the top 5 two years in a row made the playoffs within three years.
I've been trying to get Callis or KLaw to tell me if they still feel the Rangers are a top 5 system in pretty much every chat they've done since the September callups. They've left me hanging, but I'll just assume that's because they're working on their own content and don't feel like giving it away just yet.
I would think the methodology would have a lag between the time the system is ranked and their are playoff wins. I'm not sure how much the Dodgers '95-'97 prospect classes contributed to the '95 and '96 playoffs, for instance.
This is nice to read, but it guarantees nothing. One thing a team has to do is address some needs via trade and through Free Agency. The Rangers have built the farm. Now they need to accent these young players with the right proven veterans. It's going to be hard to win with a $60M payroll against teams like the Yankees, Angels,and BoSox.
I think the fact that Neftali Feliz still retains his prospect status (technically) will probably keep us in the top 5 farm systems (at least for Baseball America). I'm not so sure where Keith Law will have us ranked, but he does seem to be really high on Scheppers.
Two sudden thoughts:
Okay, now the talking part is done (again). Let's really get to the postseason in 2010.
I'll be playing mental "what if" games in my head around Matt Purke.
OK. I am feeling stupid. Please explain how Feliz retains his prospect status?
Thanks.
Not to be too cynical...but how soon before the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox et al. swoop in with dumptrucks of money taking whoever they want? Isn't there a de facto farm system inside MLB?
Jon, technically the term would be his "Rookie" status. You're no longer considered a rookie after 130 AB's or 50 IP. Also, 45 days on the active roster. Feliz just missed these marks. Because he still retains rookie status, he will still be considered for Baseball America's top prospects/farm system rankings.
Stephen, you basically have a 6 year window with young players before New York can swoop in and take them when they are free agents. However, since you are probably better off trading a player before they go free agent (like Teixeira) you probably have a 5 year window.
So the window opening now needs to be converted to the playoffs in the next 3-4 years or we start losing the Hamiltons and Kinslers.
Here's BA's explanation of their qualifications for being on a prospect ranking:
"What are the qualifications for a player to be on his organization's Top 10 Prospects list?
For a player to appear on a Top 10, he must not yet have reached the rookie minimums for at-bats (130) or innings (50) in the major leagues. Service time does not factor into this decision, so a player could spend three months in the big leagues while playing sparingly and still be eligible for a Top 10 list."
Sorry to post and run yesterday - I was in meetings all day and on a flight home most of the evening.
Dave H - Good call on the teams with top 5 rankings for two consecutive years. To the list of teams in the table in the article, you can add:
Yankees - Top 5 in '07/'08 - Playoffs in '09
Diamondbacks - Top 5 in '06/'07 - Playoffs in '07
Cubs - Top 5 in '01/'02 - Playoffs in '03
Mariners - Top 5 in '01/'02 -Playoffs in '01
Pirates - Top 5 in '97-98 - No Playoffs
Mets - Top 5 in '95/'96 - Playoffs in '99
Dan - BA's player and system rankings have a 1 year lag, meaning that the 2010 class depends on players who were deemed prospects during 2009. From your example, the Dodgers team of 1995 included three players who were deemed Top 100 prospects on BA's Top 100 list - Todd Hollandsworth, Roger Cedeno, and Chan Ho Park. For what it is worth, the Dodgers '95-'97 prospect classes were probably the weakest among all of the team's in the table as they produced only a handful of productive major leaguers (Adrian Beltre, Paul Konerko, Park, Cedeno, Hollandsworth).
Sean - In my opinion, spending lavishly on free agents or trading multiple prospects and young players for a veteran are the surest ways to short-circuit an extended playoff run. Free agent spending limits a team's ability to re-sign their own players and trading for proven veterans keeps a team from maintaining a pipeline of good, cheap labor.
DaveH - I would be shocked if the Rangers are ranked outside the Top 5 by BA. Three top 25 prospects essentially guarantees their standing. The only team that I did not list who might edge the Rangers out of a Top 5 spot is the Phillies with Brown, Drabek, and Taylor. Bit Callis has already stated that the Rangers Top 3 are better than the Phillies Top 3 and teh Phils don't have anyone else who is likely to be ranked in the Top 100. If Scheppers is ranked in the Top 100, I think it likely that the Rangers will be ranked #3 behind the Rays and Indians.
Stephen - Assuming the Rangers continue to emphasize signing and developing their own players, then the team has an opportunity to continue their prospect run so that they are not as affected by losing the stars that they develop. The prospect class of '11 will depend upon whether Ross, Font, Velazquez, and Telis build on the encouraging things that they did in '09 and Main, Beltre, and Gutierrez are able to rebound from disappointing 2009 seasons.
Woo-Hoo! More prospect talk please:) I love this stuff! To think that Main, Font, Ross, Beltre, and so on...... could honestly be top 100 prospects with just 2010 season of continued progression, is unbelievable. We have more "wild card", high upside dudes, than I've ever heard of or dreamed could be possible in one teams system. AND, we get TWO #1 picks in this years draft to continue this prospect onslaught forever!
The Rangers should be in the top 5 farmsystems next season. They should still have enought to qualify. Font, Ross, Kiker and Beavan should be in the top ten after good seasons. The Rangers probably would even be in the top 3 with the rays and indians just a little bit better.