Rangers Prospect Analysis: Tanner Scheppers
David
Fresno State right-hander Tanner Scheppers fires a pitch on June 3rd, 2007 in San Diego.Keith Law likes what he saw in the Arizona Fall League: "[Scheppers] was even more impressive than [Andrew] Cashner, sitting at 95-98 [mph] with a vicious curveball with hard, late two-plane break. He appeared to be amped up for the short outing; I doubt he'd sit at that velocity as a starter, but even 92-95 [mph] with that breaking ball would get hitters out multiple times per game. His arm works well, and his potential to be a front-line starter is really just a question of the state of his shoulder."
So did Kevin Goldstein: "The thing is, there's some real magic in [Scheppers' right arm]. In his AFL debut on Friday (10/16), his fastball sat at 95-98 mph over a pair of scoreless innings. He's still a risk, but seemingly a risk worth taking, and he just might be the Rangers' shut-down closer of the future."
Jason Grey? Yeah, him too: "Tanner Scheppers = Nasty McFilthy."
Pitch f/x, as you'll see below, is surprisingly ambivalent.
Tanner Scheppers was selected by the Rangers with the 44th pick in the 2009 amateur draft after convincing themselves that his shoulder had healed sufficiently to risk a supplemental first-round pick. Signed after the end of the minor league season, Scheppers is making his professional debut in the Arizona Fall League (AFL). As noted in the quotes above, he's made an impression on the talent evaluators who have seen him.
In three AFL appearances, Scheppers is unscored upon in 5.0 innings. He has given up one hit, struck out six and walked one. His fastball has ranged from 95-98 mph and his curveball has been praised by seemingly everyone who has seen him pitch.
Last Thursday night, Scheppers tossed two innings in a game that was tracked by Pitch f/x. Using data procured from Brooks Baseball and FanGraphs, I've compared Scheppers' stuff to the Pitch f/x profiles of all of the major league pitchers who tossed at least 50 innings in the major leagues in 2009. Provided below are the fastballs and curveballs with the most similar velocities and movement to Scheppers' pitches. The value column is FanGraphs' estimate of what the major league pitches were worth in wins in 2009 for every 100 times they were thrown. Negative win values are below-average pitches and positive win values are above-average pitches. Win values greater than +1 are considered to be well above-average pitches.
FOUR-SEAM FASTBALL
If Scheppers averaged 96.3 MPH with his fastball for a full season, then he would be among baseball's hardest throwers. Jonathan Broxton ranked No. 1 in fastball velocity in 2009 at 97.5 mph and the movement of his four-seamer is remarkably similar to Scheppers'. The 1.45 wins/100 pitches that Broxton registered in 2009 was among the best fastball values in the major leagues. The next most similar fastballs have lower velocities than Scheppers' and generally negative values. Having a plus secondary pitch appears to be an important factor in dictating whether a pitcher's fastball rates as above or below average, so developing a go-to second pitch should be a priority for Scheppers. As noted in the next section, the right-hander appears to be well on his way toward acheiving that developmental milestone.
CURVEBALL
The Pitch f/x data for Scheppers' curveball is remarkable. Major league pitchers who throw curveballs with as much break as Scheppers don't throw them nearly as hard. The most comparable curveball is Gavin Floyd's, which was one of the most valuable benders in baseball in 2009 at 2.69 wins/100. Justin Verlander and Yovani Gallardo had curveballs with the next most similar break and velocity. Both pitches rated as above average. Assuming that Scheppers can command his curveball, the pitch should be an above-average-to-plus pitch for him in the major leagues.
THE MYSTERY PITCH
Pitch f/x labeled two of the pitches that Scheppers threw as two-seam fastballs. The pitches were thrown at 89.4 and 89.8 mph. Scouting reports indicate that Scheppers throws a four-seam fastball, curveball, slider, and change-up. Scheppers' mystery pitch doesn't break like a slider, so it appears to either be his change-up or an experimental two-seamer. If the pitch is his c hange-up, then it would be among the hardest thrown changes in the major leagues. While the pitch has good horizontal movement, it does not have the horizontal drop that is associated with most quality change-ups.
A careful review of the 2009 pitcher database revealed no change-ups with velocity and movement that were similar to Scheppers' mystery pitch, but there were several 2-seamers with similar Pitch f/x profiles. Glen Perkins' fastball is most similar to Scheppers' third pitch, except that its horizontal break is in the opposite direction due to his being left-handed. The three pitches that were most similar to Scheppers' mystery pitch rated as below average in 2009, though their use as primary pitches likely made them less valuable than they would be if used alongside a plus curveball and high-velocity fastball.
LOOKING AHEAD
Pitching out of the bullpen, Scheppers is competing effectively against some of the best AA and AAA players in baseball. Assuming he doesn't have any setbacks between now and the end of spring training, it appears likely that he will begin 2010 pitching at Double-A Frisco. The big question is whether he will be pitching in the starting rotation or the bullpen.
If the Rangers choose to limit Scheppers' workload to 100-120 innings, then the team will need to decide whether it makes more sense to pitch fewer innings per start, start fewer games, or begin the season pitching out of the bullpen and then step into the starting rotation after the first month of the season. Whatever the case may be, Trip had better have his radar gun locked and loaded when the RoughRiders hit Frisco next season.
Reader Comments (13)
Interesting analysis as always. Can you expand on what you mean by the statement that Pitch F/X is ambivalent about Scheppers? His closest matches on both his fastball and curveball rate out as much above average. That seems like a very, very good sign.
A recent comp folks continue to bring up is Joba. In Joba's first taste of the bigs, his fastball/curveball combo had very similar Pitch F/X statistics.
Fastball speed, vertical, horizontal: 97.4, 11.9, -2.2
Curveball speed, vertical, horizontal: 78.9, -7.4, 7.5
Scheppers' fastball has more horizontal movement and curveball has less vertical movement. But, Joba used his slider much more than his curveball. Perhaps he had too much downward movement and couldn't keep it in the zone. Joba has since incorporated more curveballs, but they have much less movement than when he broke in to the majors in 2007. Perhaps Scheppers' curveball is in the sweet spot in that regard.
Seems like the normal caveats apply to Scheppers. We don't know how well he can command the strike zone or whether he will have a usable third pitch. Nevertheless, the early reviews of his fastball-curveball combo indicate it is top-notch from both scout and Pitch F/X perspectives.
I think the way to control his innings is the Feliz/Joba approach. Start him in the rotation and move him to the ML pen late in the season. But, the following season, put him in the mix for the last rotation spot rather than a bullpen position. If his fastball/curveball remain as dominant as this, it seems like that alone would enable him to be effective at the back of the rotation.
I'll go with Keith Law. "His arm works well, and his potential to be a front-line starter is really just a question of the state of his shoulder."
Starters pitch 2-3 times a smany innings as relief pitchers. Unless his shoulder precludes starting he should be given a chance. Having said that I do believe in the current model where pitchers come up through the pen and then work their way into the rotation.
Thanks for additional points, Rooster. The Chamberlain comp is a nice one, though as you point out, Joba is much more of a fastball/slider pitcher while Scheppers will likely be a fastball/curveball type.
I used the word ambivalent to describe the conclusions that one can draw using the Pitch f/x data due to the decidedly different comps that Scheppers' fastall produces. If he he becomes a relief pitcher, then his fastball figures to be an above average to plus pitcvh since he can maintain the 96-99 MPH velocity that he is producing in Arizona. If he becomes a starter, then the pitch will likely sit at 94-95 MPH. If he doesn't pick up a fair amount of movement at the lower speeds, then the Pitch f/x comparables suggest that his fastall will become average to below average. The movement and velocity on his third pitch is decidedly uninspiring. As a starter, it looks like he currently has a plus pitch (curveball), an average pitch (fastball), and a question mark (third pitch).
5 innings isn't much to go on and I just can't form an opinion on Scheppers until he's pitched a lot more. Well, I'm excited he's in the system and about his potential, but that's about it at this point.
I like the idea of starting him in the bullpen and easing him into the rotation later in the season. The number of starters in the system makes this a real possibility, with Scheppers moving into the rotation after someone is promoted.
Good work David. Do you think you can continue to revisit this as his sample size grows? If you have the time, I'd also be interested in perhaps a monthly update for Pitch F/x data on some of our top prospects (during next season). Some pitchers I'd like to see charted are Scheppers, Perez, Gutierrez, and Poveda. If and when Ross, Font and the like make it to spring training or levels with Pitch F/x data, I'd like to see some info on them as well.
t ball - I agree that 5 innings of performance data doesn't do you much good, so I am not particularly swayed by the six strikeouts, 1 walk, or 0.40 WHIP that Scheppers has posted so far. But the Pitch f/x data strikes me as being reasonably resistant to small sample size effects. Pitchers have good days and bad days, but it appears that their stuff varies significantly less between outings than their pitch location and end results. I've looked at the Pitch f/x data for a dozen or so AFL pitchers (and ~100 major leaguers) in the last couple of weeks and I'm confident that both Scheppers and Gutierrez are among the top 3 or 4 pitchers in Arizona. Unlike most of the other prospects with whom they are competing, they are working with major league quality stuff right now. If they can command their pitches and prove they are healthy, both pitchers look to be viable candidates to help the Rangers next year.
Dave H - I hope that the AFL Pitch f/x experiment will be deemed a success and that it will begin to be applied at minor league stadiums (or at least in Spring Training). I think it is a great tool for tracking the progress of your favorite prospects. I tried to tap into Pitch f/x-type data for minor league prospects last season and failed. The technology is in the minor leagues and being used by major league organizations. Hopefully, they will make that information available to fans in the not-too-distant future.
Thanks for clarifying on Pitch F/X ambivalence.
Yet another way to look at this is to consider the fit of fastball and a secondary pitch. There aren't a lot of fastball who use a curveball as a primary secondary pitch; seems to be a lot more that use a slider. Verlander probably has the arsenal closest to Sheppers at this moment. Sheppers' Pitch F/X data doesn't contain a change-up at this point, so it's hard to say if they have similar 3rd pitches.
Nevertheless, here are the comps that have fastball/curveball combos that are most similar to Scheppers' according to my eyeballing-it approach:
Top-end SP:
Verlander (Changeup as 3rd pitch)
King Felix (Slider and Curveball used equally frequently as 2nd pitch; Change-up as 3rd pitch)
Lincecum (Change/Curveball used equally frequently as 2nd pitch)
Beckett (has more downward movement on his fastball)
AJ Burnett (has more downward movement on his fastball)
Low end SP:
Jeff Niemann (Added a slider as a 3rd pitch this year)
Not many guys with the velocity of Sheppers and curveball of Scheppers fall into this category. They seem to become relievers.
Closers:
Andrew Bailey (But a very different 3rd pitch compared to Scheppers' mystery pitch)
Kerry Wood
Other RP:
Dany Baez
Kevin Jepsen
Phil Hughes (probably not a RP long-term)
Jose Veras
Overall, the SP whose fastball-curveball combo Scheppers' most resembles in 2009 is likely Justin Verlander; most similar RP looks like Phil Hughes.
BTW, I think the request of a daily update by one poster is a good idea. If that sounds like an overwhelming amount of work, I might be able to chip in. Send me an email if interested (cj4ball2@gmail.com).
You can't simply say that if his velocity goes down then his fastball will become average/below average - you can't judge a pitch based purely on "stuff". What you've completely left out of the equation is location and control. If he can locate a 94 mph fastball with decent movement, then it's not a below average pitch.
I haven't seen Scheppers actual mechanics (or seen an in-depth description), but part of me feels like it might be in his best interest to work in relief for his first couple of seasons. For Feliz it doesn't make a lot of sense because his motion seems to be so effortless. I think he'd hold up very well as a starter. On the other hand, I think limiting Scheppers' innings for the next couple of years until we're sure that he can handle it.
Who knows he could tear his shoulder up overthrowing out of the bullpen and be fine for years as a starter. I just think I'd exercise more caution with Tanner than Neftali.
Jace - Sorry to suggest that location doesn't play a significant role in determining the value of a pitch. Unfortunately, I haven't come up with a uesful way to use the "pitch location" data that Pitch F/X spits out. The analysis that I've provided excludes location and environment (aka, a pitcher's other pitches) and focuses exclusivley on velocity and movement. Relative to major league pitchers, Scheppers' 95-99MPH fastball has very little horizontal or vertical movement. If his velocity drops from plus to above average, as it is likely to do if he pitches 6+ innings per game, then a lack of movement would likely make the pitch quite hittable even if he does have very good command.
Scheppers will join the Rangers next spring in Surprise, right? I'm going to get a better nickname than Nasty McFilthy.
Rooster - Did you receive the email message that I sent you yesterday?
If he can stay healthy, this can go down as a huge steal for us in the draft