Rangers Prospect Analysis: Daniel Gutierrez

In an article that he posted last year, Mike Hindman indicated that the second most common way that baseball teams acquire top starting pitchers behind drafting them is via trades for minor league pitchers (link).  Acquired from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for Tim Smith and Manny Pina, Daniel Gutierrez has the potential to develop into a quality major league starting pitcher for the Rangers. 

Gutierrez entered the Royals minor league system in 2006 after a year in college and had two relatively non-descript years as a 19- and 20-year old in the Pioneer, Arizona, and Midwest leagues (see table below).  Gutierrez broke out in 2008 as a starting pitcher in the Midwest League as the velocity on his fastball reportedly improved to 90-95 MPH and his curveball developed into a plus pitch.  An injury and a suspension cost Gutierrez much of the 2009 season, though he pitched well in limited action in the high A Carolina League and AA Texas League. 

 Daniel Gutierrez Minor League Career Stats

Year	Age	Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	BB/9	K/9	BAA	GB/FB
2006	19	Rk	53	6.57	1.79	3.8	6.6	.352	1.75
2007	20	Rk	3.2	0.00	0.55	3.0	9.0	.100	3.99
2007	20	A	32	4.88	1.38	3.4	7.8	.264	0.87
2008	21	A	91.2	2.70	1.18	2.5	10.4	.245	1.70
2009	22	A+	27.1	1.65	0.88	2.3	8.2	.173	1.07
2009	22	AA	5	3.60	0.60	0	5.4	.158	3.01
Total			212.2	3.80	1.30	2.9	8.7	.263	1.48

 
Looking to add to the 32.1 innings that he pitched in 2009, the Rangers assigned Gutierrez to Surprise of the Arizona Fall League.  In his first start, the right-hander tossed three innings of no-hit baseball, striking out two and walking two.  Pitch F/X data from the game revealed that Gutierrez worked with a 93-95 MPH fastball, a 69-77 MPH curveball, and a 82-84 MPH change-up.  His release point was reasonably consistent though a little higher for his curveball than for his fastball and change-up (link).

To get a sense of how these three pitches might perform at the major league level, I used the Pitch F/X database at Fangraphs (www.fangraphs.com) to identify pitchers with 4-seam fastballs, curveballs, and change-ups that have velocities and movement that are similar to Gutierrez.  Provided in the three tables below are the comparable pitches and their estimated values in 2009. 

The value column is an estimate of the number of wins that a given pitch was worth for each 100 times that it was thrown.  Below average pitches have negative values and above average pitches have positive values.  Significantly above average pitches typically have values of greater than 1.  Worth noting is that the value of a given pitch is influenced by the quality of a pitcher’s other pitches.  Thus, if two pitchers threw identical curveballs, the estimated values of the two pitches could be different based on the quality of the other pitches that the two pitchers threw.

4-Seam Fastball
Gutierrez’ fastball ranged from 93 to 95 MPH and averaged 94 MPH.  The pitch has surprisingly little sink, though it does have significant lateral movement.  David Price features a fastball with the most similar horizontal and vertical movement to Gutierrez’ 4-seamer, though his horizontal movement is in the opposite direction due to his being left-handed.  The three most similar 4-seam fastballs from 2009 all rate as slightly above average, suggesting that Gutierrez’ fastball has the raw components of an above average pitch.  The command and consistency of his 4-seamer will dictate whether it can be a productive major league pitch.

Pitcher	Usage	Average Velocity	Horizontal Movement	Vertical Movement	Value (wins/100)
Gutierrez	74%	94.0	-7.7	9.9
Jim Johnson	76%	94.0	-8.0	8.3	0.74
Guillermo Mota	65%	94.0	-8.7	9.3	0.10
David Price	71%	93.0	7.2	9.4	0.53

Curveball
Gutierrez’ curveball was mostly 75-77 MPH, though he did mix in a 69 and a 71 MPH pitch during his three innings.  The downward break on Gutierrez’ curveball is outstanding.  The only major league pitcher in 2009 who matched the 10-inch vertical drop that Gutierrez averaged among the ten curveballs that he tossed last week is Barry Zito.  Chris Carpenter and Matt Garza were the only two right-handers whose curveball movement in 2009 came close to what Gutierrez registered.  Most right-handers have far less vertical drop and only slightly greater horizontal movement than Gutierrez.  If he commands the pitch well, then Gutierrez’ curveball profiles as plus.

Pitcher	Usage	Average Velocity	Horizontal Movement	Vertical Movement	Wins/100 pitches
Gutierrez	22%	74.4	5.2	-10.0
Matt Garza	11%	75.5	5.6	-8.4	1.57
Chris Carpenter	24%	75.0	6.7	-8.9	1.41
Barry Zito	18%	73.1	-4.5	-10.4	1.93

Change-Up
Gutierrez only threw his change-up twice in his start last week so the velocity and movement on the pitch should be taken with a grain of salt.  The Pitch F/X data suggest that the movement of the pitch is very similar to his fastball – limited downward movement, but significant horizontal movement.  The pitch is approximately 10 MPH slower than his fastball, which puts it in the sweet spot for velocity differential. Intriguingly, the three major league change-ups with the most similar Pitch F/X characteristics all rate as above average to plus pitches.  Naturally, how well Gutierrez commands his change-up and how similar his throwing motion is between his change-up and fastball will affect whether the pitch develops into a weapon that he can use against major league hitters. 

Pitcher	Usage	Average Velocity	Horizontal Movement	Vertical Movement	Value (wins/100)
Gutierrez	4%	82.9	-9.1	8.0
Ryan Madson	25%	83.8	-9.3	7.6	1.86
Kyle Davies	22%	82.8	-8.9	8.8	1.75
Manny Delcarmen	22%	81.9	-8.1	6.8	0.88

Looking Ahead
Going purely on Pitch F/X data, Gutierrez’ fastball and curveball appear to be near-ready major league pitches.  With fewer than 2.5 BB/9 in 2008 and 2009, he apparently also has sufficient control to be competitive.  A fast start by Gutierrez in Frisco combined with a strong need in the major league bullpen could result in his promotion to the Rangers as soon as next season.

Although there are a few exceptions (Aaron Cook, Fausto Carmona, Brad Penny, David Price), most successful major league starting pitchers throw their fastballs less than 70% of the time.  Starters typically complement their fastballs with at least two off-speed pitches that they throw at least 10% of the time.  Gutierrez is obviously comfortable throwing his curveball.  Adding a change-up that rates as a legitimate third pitch will likely be necessary for him to succeed as a major league starting pitcher.

Assuming he is healthy and effective in Spring Training, it seems likely that Gutierrez will begin the 2010 season in the Frisco rotation.  His priorities will likely include developing his change-up, commanding his curveball and fastball, and building his innings.  Given the Rangers’ recent history of aggressively promoting their top pitchers, it is likely that Gutierrez will end his 23-year-old season either in the Oklahoma Redhawk’s rotation or the Rangers’ bullpen.  Of course, he will have to distinguish himself from a group of upper level pitching prospects that will likely include Perez, Main, Beavan, Kiker, Poveda, Gomez, Hurley, and Scheppers

Comments

[David]

The article was written this past weekend and did not incorporate information from Gutierrez' second AFL start. Yesterday, Gutierrez pitched 3.2 innings for Surprise and gave up two hits, two walks, and no runs. He struck out one opposing hitter. His first three innings were outstanding (0 R, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K) as his fastball averaged 92.6 MPH and his curveball averaged 73 MPH with the same outstanding movement that he had in his first game. In the fourth inning, Gutierrez gave up a single and two walks before being removed with two outs. His fastball velocity was only 91 MPH and his curveball clocked in at 71.7 MPH. Worth watching in his next game will be how well he maintains his velocity beyond three innings.

[A. Stephens]

Outstanding analysis, thanks.

Without resorting to labels, were I JD, I think I would offer up 1 of Wilson or Francisco on the open market as either headliner or part of a larger blockbuster deal. I'd be gambling that the one I kept will handle the 010 closers job the entire year, and that I could find a top shelf set-up guy from my abundance of high yield arms that are just about ready for prime time. I could ease said arm into that slot somewhat by splitting his duties with O'Day/Nippert, thereby providing a little insurance to an adjustment period. Further, by bringing them up in the bullpen I continue to reinforce that as the programmed path to the ML rotation, provided the skill set is there. As I said, it's a gamble, but reality dictates that should these guys pitch up to their talent, creativity will be at a premium in their utilization.

[t ball]

Given the amount of time he's missed with injury, I'm not surprised he's pitching mostly fastball. Perhaps as he settles in and gets reps and innings he'll level that out a bit. I'd like to see them just leave him alone in the minors as long as possible to get him some consistent innings if he can stay healthy. Some bullpen time, whether in the minors or majors, seems almost guaranteed if they are going to keep his innings total from increasing too quickly.

[Pabloesque]

I agree with A. Stephens. Though I love gathering young, power arms like this... and I'm very greedy in not wanting to trade ANY of them... I think that we could package somebody like CJ, along with a Beavan, Main, or Kiker and come away with a nice player, be it a back of the rotation type or strong bullpen guy.
We obviously can't have 25 starting pitchers on the roster... so at some point in the near future it would be wise of JD to float a few names out there to see what he could fetch in return.
I would love to see Greinke in a Rangers uni... even if it was at the expense of our top notch kids. KC is not foolish though... the only way they trade him is if they are in full blown rebuilding mode, hurting for money, or Geinke becomes a malcontent...
Maybe it would be smart to look at teams like Tampa Bay and Florida... low budget teams that are always looking for inexpensive players.

[Dave H]

As far as the trade goes, I never really envisioned either Tim Smith or Manny Piña ever be more than a servicable back-up at best. I'll take a guy who seems to have a pretty good shot of turning out to be a quality middle relief/setup man (if not a decent starter/closer).

[Rodney]

Very nice work David. I am now thoroughly excited about this young man.

[eg]

Healthy could possibly be a problem for Gutierrez, as he has had both shoulder issues (last year) and elbow problems (the year before). It would also be good to keep him off the police blotter (three arrests in Arizona in the last two years, with two convictions and an assault case still pending). I hate that the Royals gave up on him, but he was rather problematic for them as his behavior resulted in lengthy club suspensions twice. I wish him well and hope things go better for him in the Rangers system.

[Owitt Hurtz]

I saw every game Gutierrez and Sheppers pitched in the AFL. Real Deal! stand-by we're in for a treat as Ranger fans. Young, capable and focused. Gutierrez and Sheppers are exactly who we need to seal our play-off run in 2010!