Pondering Nelson Cruz & The Texas Rangers' 2009 Lineup
Joey Matschulat
Is this truly Nelson Cruz's time to shine?You know, quite a bit has been made out of this innocuous little morsel of manager-to-media banter since it was first published by Richard Durrett of the Dallas Morning News during last month's winter meetings in Las Vegas:
Nelson Cruz would be the cleanup hitter if the Rangers didn't make any moves to add offense. [Manager Ron] Washington said he wants a right-handed bat behind Josh Hamilton and he wants to leave Hamilton third in the order.
With one of the three best dates of the calendar year baseball-wise now looming less than six weeks away (referring to the glorious date of February 14th, of course, which is when Texas Rangers pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report to Surprise, Arizona for the official onset of spring training), it's only natural that fan and media speculation with regard to the actual on-the-field action would increasingly begin to creep into the baseball conversations that have largely been dominated by hot stove talk to this point in the off-season, and that truth became even more glaringly evident on Tuesday when the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Jim Reeves joined the speculation, strongly intimating that it's "sink or swim" time for Cruz in a Rangers uniform.
Long-time readers of BBTiA can vouch for the fact that I've been a hopelessly devout Cruz supporter for the near-entirety of his time in the organization; indeed, any and all rationality goes flying out the window whenever his name crops up around me, because then I begin to reflect on his marvelous tools and his jaw-dropping minor league statistical body of work, and it's not long after that I become transfixed with the glassy-eyed expression of a young boy futilely attempting to process the overwhelming array of sights and sounds from his first major league game -- or something closely resembling that, anyway.
The fact of the matter is that we can endlessly debate the merits of Cruz being the Rangers' Opening Day cleanup hitter and yet always come away empty-handed at the end of the day, and because this cozy little corner of the baseball blogosphere has never been about coming away empty-handed, I've taken the liberty of plugging in Sean Smith's excellent 2009 CHONE player projections (available here) into David Pinto's convenient lineup analysis mechanism (available here), using the below self-concocted 2009 projected batting order:
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Some important footnotes and thoughts:
● I could have conceivably employed the Bill James or Marcels projections available at FanGraphs and plugged those into Pinto's lineup analysis tool, but the former appear far too optimistic, particularly where young players are concerned (.302/.352/.599 from Davis? .308/.390/.548 from Max Ramirez? Sure, anything is possible in this game, but those aren't remotely realistic projections), and because the latter doesn't integrate minor league numbers into its engine, it's not particularly adept at handling young players.
Conversely, the CHONE projections measure up quite well from a statistical standpoint with the industry leader in player forecasting, Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA, and seem quite well-rooted in practicability and logic, and that's really what I wanted to strive for here.
● There's obviously an inherent flaw present in this methodology -- not all of these players are going to log 162 games in the field (heck, if even one of them manages to do so it will be considered a noteworthy accomplishment), and if Marlon Byrd (who projects to hit a healthy .281/.352/.434) survives the season without being dealt, he'll easily log 400 plate appearances between all three outfield positions, consequently undermining Murphy's role to a certain degree.
Blalock won't exclusively hog the designated hitter's spot all to himself -- you can bet on Washington utilizing that spot to give his more vulnerable pieces of offensive artillery occasional breathers from the battlefield. And if Metcalf actually fulfills his singularly horrific projection through, say, his first 100 plate appearances of the season, he'll be shipped back to Triple-A Oklahoma City faster than you can say "German Duran."
● Try not to read too much into the few key assumptions I've made here, particularly where the catcher's spot in the projected batting order is concerned; that could quite honestly go in any of several different directions. I also question whether Washington would condone batting three lefties (Blalock, Murphy and Davis) back-to-back-to-back -- and, of course, batting Davis seventh probably doesn't make a tremendous deal of sense, but I can envision it happening with the intention of wanting to "protect" the second-year slugger by burying him deeper in the lineup, so there you go.
Plugging the above batting order into Pinto's lineup analysis tool produces the sum of 5.116 runs per game on average, or roughly 830 runs over the course of a full 162-game season, while the computer-generated "best" lineups produce the sums of 5.208 runs per game on average, or roughly 845 runs -- a disparity of approximately 15 runs (give or take a run or two), or about one and a half wins.
The purported importance of the noble art of lineup construction seems to be overemphasized on a relatively frequent basis, but there is clearly value to be derived from doing it with a fair degree of competence (i.e. not giving Corey Patterson and his illustrious .238 on-base percentage 155 plate appearances in the lead-off spot, such as Reds manager Dusty Baker did in 2008), and it goes without saying that you want your better hitters hitting closer to the top of the batting order in order to maximize their opportunities to inflict offensive damage.
As for the top suggested lineups themselves, notice any recurring themes?
[Click the image for the expanded version.]
Yes, the top eight suggested lineups all feature Hamilton batting second, Davis batting sixth, Metcalf batting eighth ... and Cruz batting fourth, which is, of course, predicated on one of the more remarkably gifted and talented outfielders in franchise history fulfilling his enormous potential and living up to his respective projection. Moreover, is he capable of handling the additional pressure to hit for power and produce runs that the cleanup spot entails?
We're going to find out soon enough.
Reader Comments (25)
I've been a Cruz proponent from the jump though I'm a bit more tepid on him now than before. Don't know what the outcome will be but this is as big an example of life being as much about timing as anything. Not a great year to be a rising RH power hitter in a lefty heavy lineup. You reasonably have to slot him cleanup. And I'm afraid that could set him up to fail. He's much more disciplined now but he continues to be a very young hitter (young in ML service time) who's overcoming a tendency to be fooled by pitchers pitches. Batting 4th means he sees less good pitches to hit and it's not inconceivable that he reverts to old habits as a result of added pressure felt internally. Hopefully he can stay within himself and not force things, trusting that his approach in the 4-hole may not mean instant gratification but can constitute progress so long as the powers that be continue to let him develop there. Patience would seem to be a key word here.
When Cruz came to Texas after the Cordero trade in 2006 and struggled right away as a 26 year old (his birthday is July 1, 1980), I summarily dismissed his chances of ever playing in the major leagues. You cannot contribute at that level in any way if your obp is .261.
Throwing down a .287 obp in more than 300 appearances and not being able to crack the starting line-up of a really bad team in 2007 plus his inability to even make the 2008 team seemed to validate those thoughts.
When Cruz came up last August, to say the least, I was skeptical. What I do remember hearing Ron Washington say on his pre-game show is that Cruz was going to play every day and maybe that's all it took. I think the first game he played in last year was against the Royals and he was hitting nothing but ropes (and he never really stopped). I was taken aback by the player I saw, enough to make me re-evaluate his chances.
Still not sure what to think about him in 2009 and for him to become successful he is going to need to defy most major league history. With me, the door is no longer shut and might even be slightly cracked.
Nice seeing A.Stephens around (a real good guy in the world of baseball's blogosphere).
Some banter out there about A Dunn possibly considering a 1 year deal so he can re-enter the FA market next year when the offers would likely be better. If he would consider it this would seem to be a good opportunity for Texas.
Yes, we need pitching more, but I think that the team has a lot to offer guys like Dunn, MB (and others) who are willing to sign short-term deals, and I think the team stands to benefit geatly by bringing them in. Sell the team to the player by telling him to come here for a year, mash in our Ballpark, and go get a big contract somewhere else. We'll be glad to get your production for a year and we'll be thrilled to get 2 picks when you leave (that we can use to draft pitchers, if you will...).
I know there are a lot of other factors to consider as well (especially the roster impact with Dunn probably wanting to play in the OF vs. DH), but I think the basic concept takes advantage of a market opportunity, it helps keep top talent coming in, and doesn't have too much financial risk. Any merit?
I am kind of shocked that the 2009 CHONE player projections have Cruz with a better line than Davis. I doubt this will happen. Maybe it does. That 4 spot was magical last year for Bradley. Can the 4 spot help Cruz? Can the 6 or 7th spot hurt Davis? Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
Lineups look pretty devestating. Should finish in at least the top 5 in runs scored yet again. If the Salty/Teagarden pairing at catcher continues to improve, and we get anything from 3B what-so-ever, we should be good to go.
Count me as skeptical. Did Cruz look different at the end of last year? Absolutely.
But I can't help but remember how Murphy looked at the end of 2007. Cruz has dug himself a hole in my brain...and it will take time to dig himself out.
Murphy hit the ground running after the trade...complete stark contrast to how Cruz played. Murphy went 4 for 7 in his first two starts and never stopped hitting .936 OPS in 112 PA's).
Leftys figured him out a little bit last year but this is a very usable player.
Joey,
Good topic. I had a similar one on the Reds. I ended up creating a spreadsheet for the projected 11 or 12 hitters with a spot for the pitchers line and an additional player along with just the group of 'Bench'. You can input the players total AB's, AVG/OBP/SLG and it uses a simple RC conversion, then you can do the same thing for the pitchers (with IP and ERA and it adds 70 runs for unearned runs throughout the season) to get a runs allowed, and also spits out a W/L for the team based on the pythag record based on those RS/RA.
Anyways, with a little adjustment to the sheet (since you don't play with pitchers at the plate but 20 times a year if that) it could likely give you a much better idea of runs scored since it will account for the bench and playing time. Anyways, if you want to check it out, feel free.
http://redsminorleagues.com/2009/01/01/you-can-be-a-stats-geek-and-project-the-2009-reds-too/
That's a pretty reasonable projection... almost puny when compared to a healthy Bradley.
And I think that's exactly what all of this will come down to. Bradley flourished as Hamilton's clean up because he had a sharp eye. He drew walks. Made pitchers work.
Cruz has become a more selective hitter, but in a meaningless month of baseball... against some pretty putrid competition - KC, Seattle, Detroit... the identity-crisis A's
I have my reservations. But at this point, there's really no other choice.
Thanks for the linkage, Doug. I might play around with that a little bit over the next day or two.
FWIW, here's a very interesting scouting report from ESPN's Inside Edge on Cruz...very small sample size, but several oddities stick out:
- Cruz's "well-hit average of swings" on pitches down the middle was worse all-around than on inside pitches, outside pitches, or pitches high or low in the strike zone. Again, sample size is likely playing a large role in that, but...
- Cruz was solid-average at handling off-speed offerings and good enough discipline-wise at the plate, but, hey, small sample in a month full of mediocre competition as oc pointed out...
And the more I think about it, the more I wonder if I'm not understating Byrd's role, since I really don't think Washington would be all that keen on lining up three consecutive lefties in the batting order and creating a vulnerability that opposing managers could easily exploit with a good LOOGY...sure, Blalock hit well against lefties last year in a small sample, but historically he hasn't fared well against southpaws (.231/.285/.371 in 925 career PA), and while Davis might prove to be an exception to the rule, Murphy hasn't exactly been a world-beater either against lefties (.279/.310/.415, albeit in just 155 career PA).
I find it hard to imagine tossing Cruz in the 4th hole. At a minimum, I would move him back to the 5 hole. It seems stupid to put that much pressure on him right from the start. Would you make the same argument for Davis? I wouldn't want him up there yet either.
Move Murphy/Byrd into the two hole drop Young into the 3 and move Hamilton back to the four. Then you can put Cruz at 5. You maintain the lefty righty alternates and don't put all the pressure on Cruz.
You follow cruz up with blaylock in the 6 hole, Salty in the 7 and Davis at 8. That way you don't have any back to back lefties. Salty will hit this year. Davis's strikeouts don't hurt that bad in the 8 hole and his power is nasty that deep in a lineup. He is your second number 4.
You have power up and down the line-up.
Murphy and Byrd at the two hole is a little bit of a stretch, but smart platooning them could make them pretty tough. They both handle the bat well and could lay down a bunt or hit-and run.
Young in the three hole and healthy is 200 hits and 35 doubles.
Think outside the box here for a second...
What if we had this line-up?
Kinsler 2B
Hamilton CF
Young SS
Blalock DH
Cruz RF
Davis 1B
Murphy/Byrd LF platoon
Teagarden/Salty C platoon
Metcalf 3B
Your first 7 spots are right-left alternates (8 if you include Salty).
You have to commit to having Hamilton hitting second but I don't have a problem with that because he gets on base and isn't going to clog up the paths. That way Blalock hits 4th and Cruz doesn't have the pressure of having to hit clean-up from the start of the season.
Josey,
Oppsing managers would love to see Young hit behind Hamilton. Can you say 6-4-3 DP?
I would put Cruz in the 4 hole until he showed over the span of a month or so that he couldn't handle it. If he is hitting after Hamilton and before Davis, he should see his share of fastballs - lord knows he can hit the fastball. The big problem last year was when Bradley went down with his various injuries, pitchers stopped throwing to Hamilton (mostly just breaking balls low and away) - and he was very very human. So having a righty in there #4 is very important. I do realize that we have an overabundance of lefties, and that it does pose a problem in making a balanced lineup.
This is another reason why I'd rather see them move Blalock and use Max as DH.
Some more thoughts:
- Brian, I can see Byrd being utilized in the two-hole, particularly if this early-30s renaissance of his in terms being able to consistently reach base is truly legit (a 10.2% walk rate is quite serviceable, all things considered, particularly when you recall that he's also a good hitter for average), but Murphy's not a good enough hitter to merit consideration for a spot that high up in the lineup (the frequent assertions that he's nothing more than a fourth outfielder are pretty apt, although he is a solid fourth outfielder) and certainly doesn't walk enough.
Additionally, I noted some time back on my trainwreck appearance on Rangers Podcast in Arlington (which I'm still determined to atone for -- Vittas and I have kicked around the idea of doing a shorter podcast on a sporadic basis) that I expected Washington to move Davis further up in the lineup at some point. I realistically can't see him batting as far down as eighth, even for the purposes of "protection."
Josey: In the abstract that's an intriguing lineup, although in reality Washington isn't going to bat Hamilton that high...I'm also not sure if it means anything that Blalock has historically struggled in the cleanup spot (.267/.329/.418 in 778 PA), as that may be more a product of his overall offensive struggles than a patent inability to produce in such a role. One thing you definitely don't want to see happen is Blalock slipping back into the "pull-first" mentality.
I would be very hesitant to start Cruz out in the #4 spot. Start him a little lower and if he swings well, then move him up. But if he is struggling in the 4 spot its going to hurt a lot more than if he is swinging well in the 5/6 spot.
You know, what Joey just said about Blalock might be my biggest concern here: assuming Cruz and Hank are going to be your 4-5 (and this could go even for Davis, should Washington ever let him bat there) you're relying on two noted streaky free-swingers to basically hinge your lineup. If one falls into a slump, the pressure it puts on the other could wind up sending them into a spiral as well - especially if it's Blalock hitting ineffectively behind Cruz.
Not that there's anything you can really do about it, considering the alternatives, but the issue here isn't just going to be about Cruz, it's also going to be about Blalock and how the two of them hit in tandem with each other. Hopefully one will be able to carry the other through any adversity they might face, because both have the potential to be pretty beastly when they're both on.
"Murphy hit the ground running after the trade...complete stark contrast to how Cruz played. Murphy went 4 for 7 in his first two starts and never stopped hitting .936 OPS in 112 PA's)."
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Murphy and Cruz are not perfect comparisons, but Murphy proved (to me) that a good August/September does not necessarily translate to future results. I hope that Cruz turned a corner, as he appeared to do, but I am not convinced.
The thing that bothers me about that original lineup is that Hamilton needs to move to right field. ASAP. He's potentially a good-to-great RF, but he's just not a very good CF ~ and I don't see him improving there much, even with more playing time and stamina.
Byrd, on the other hand, plays a very solid CF, and is a good stopgap for Borbon, assuming the latter hits enough to break with the team in 2010. Cruz isn't a great fit in LF, but (again) if he's the real deal, his offense will far, far overcome anything he gives up defensively to Murphy, who is a very good LF, and would (as Joey noted) make a terrific fourth outfielder.
UT Blair -
When Cruz started with the Rangers, he was 26 years old + one month.
When Murphy started with the Rangers, he was 25 years old + almost 10 months.
Not perfect comparison but pretty close.
Murphy tore it up right away while the slightly older Cruz struggled mightily.
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It didn't shock me that Hamilton hitting 2nd is the more productive line-up. It's a little unconventional so I don't see Washington using him there but the numbers don't lie.
If you don't want to hit Hamilton 2nd, why not hit Blalock 2nd and move Josh to clean-up? Blalock's best slugging % (.519) far and away came while he was hitting 2nd.
Comparing the numbers Joey provided us in the 1st Part of the "Fixing 3rd Base" Series... especially the dreadfully similar defensive results from Davis vs. a platoon of Metcalf/Duran...
Third Base - 2008 Season
Player Team PA AVG OBP SLG INN +/- UZR
Chris Davis TEX 128 .294 .344 .538 276 -9 -5.8
German DuranTEX 86 .225 .271 .363 223 -7 -5.4
Travis Metcalf TEX 58 .241 .276 .611 130 -6 -4.4
and these inspiring quotes by Chris Davis regarding 3B in '09...
http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2009/01/qa-with-chris-davis.html
I still say, if we can't trade for a Martin Prado, and we don't sign Joe Crede, then why not go with Davis over the M/D platoon?
For the slight defensive disadvantage, we'd gain all these
ADVANTAGES
-- MaxRam's or our 4th OF'er's bat (at DH) instead of Metcalf's (with Hank or a Catcher at 1B)
-- The opportunity to carry Arias instead of Duran as our Utility IF
-- Davis getting practice for '10 as either our 3B or our DH/back-up 3B/back-up 1B
-- Development of MaxRam's bat in our only year to showcase him (and decide on our 2nd C)
-- An Amazing Line-up :
Kinsler 2B
Hamilton LF (DH when Murphy plays LF)
Young SS
Cruz RF
Blalock 1B/DH
Davis 3B
MaxRam/Murphy (DH/LF) platoon
Teagarden/Salty C platoon
Byrd CF
--
I think the prevailing thought with regard to Metcalf is that he has underperformed defensively to date (or at least that is what the likes of UZR and +/- indicate) and that, in actuality, he's an average to slightly above-average defender at the hot corner, and would probably appear as such over the course of a full season...now, projecting defense is even more of a shot in the dark than projecting offense is, but the general consensus seems to be that Davis is probably a -10 defender or thereabouts...that assessment, to me, reflects the organizational consensus, and it's why we're probably not going to see Davis at third base in 2009 outside of perhaps a cameo appearance or two (and why Davis himself admits he's viewed as a backup there).
Placing the proper emphasis on defense is paramount, and it's encouraging to see the Rangers adhering to that this off-season. I just question if Metcalf's bat is ever going to be even remotely passable, and if he completely tanks, perhaps it's conceivable Davis is given another crack at the position (particularly if the Rangers believe he has made legitimate progress defensively). It'll be interesting to see what ultimately transpires.
I know I've gone back & forth on this-- sometimes I've argued for making defense our top priority because it improves 12 pitchers at a time and is especially important when developing young pitchers.Other times I've argued that if we can't get a Prado type (young, solid defender), then we should go with our worst defensive 3B). But there is a common point to my extemely differing suggestions: TEAM DEVELOPMENT.
I just don't see much long-term benefit to slightly shoring up the defense if has relatively little long-term benefit to the team. I would gladly give up 10-15 more runs this year if it means getting Max, Tea and Salty into the line-up this year sharing C and DH (even all 3 at the same time, with Max mostly at 1st, if we trade Hank).
Once Smoak rises to MLB, our chance of evaluating Max at the Major-league level is over.
Hi. I don't know much about baseball, but I am a Yankees fan. I was interested in Nelson Cruz cuz he is a tough MF and I wanted to buy tickets to good games. I think he's awesome and I'd love to see him play. I didn't know what team he was on, but you're lucky to have him!!!
already did. Thanks. Love Cruz.