Saturday Morning Rangers Notes: Sheets Signing Nearing Imminence?
Joey Matschulat
Are the Texas Rangers closing in on free-agent right-hander Ben Sheets?It took until the penultimate week of January for the Ben Sheets Sweepstakes TM to catch its second wind, but one thing has become ineluctably evident in the last 48 hours -- the Texas Rangers have emerged as the definitive front-runners for a remarkably talented pitcher that no team has yet made a substantive push to acquire.
That may be about to change.
General manager Jon Daniels, ever the cool and calculated roster architect, was quick to downplay the apparent significance of Wednesday evening's widely publicized dinner meeting with Sheets and his agent, Casey Close, describing the sitdown -- the first face-to-face meeting between the two sides since December -- as nothing more than an extension of the club's "continued dialogue" with Sheets's camp and customary "due diligence."
What is clear, however, is that the entirety of the organizational brain trust is now seriously invested in the outcome of the situation, and it is being implied by Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that negotiations have progressed to a point where the (very) rough parameters of a deal are presently being hammered out:
It could be a busy weekend for Hicks, Ryan and general manager Jon Daniels, and an agreement could be reached by early next week. The right deal would be no longer than two years and worth no more than $16 million guaranteed, but it could escalate based on performance incentives.
"If your guarantee doesn’t have to be to the level where you felt like you had too much exposure, and you were able to build in a structure that he would be paid on the level that he pitched to, I think that would be the proper approach," Ryan said Friday.
"When you have a pitcher of Sheets’ caliber and you’re trying to strengthen your pitching, you have to investigate the possibilities if there’s an opportunity."
Team president Nolan Ryan, an instrumental figure in the resolution of the Michael Young debacle, is reportedly at the forefront of the internal charge to acquire Sheets, with Jennifer Floyd Engel of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writing this morning that Ryan was at his "absolute best" on Wednesday evening, laying out his long-range vision for the future of the Rangers' historically beleaguered pitching staff as Sheets "apparently hung on every word."
And though it should obviously be taken with a huge grain of salt, Engel's piece includes this money line: "Sources [are] saying Monday is a possibility for an announcement." Interpret that line however you wish.
All of this comes down as SI.com's Jon Heyman reports that the Mets have tendered an offer to ever-mercurial southpaw Oliver Perez, thought to be worth no less than $30 million over three years. The 27-year-old Mexican remains New York's top priority, while Andy Pettitte, also a free agent and left-handed but almost 10 years his senior, continues to go back and forth with the Yankees, with whom most observers expect Pettitte to ultimately sign.
Sheets to Arlington. Perez to Queens. Pettitte to the Bronx. It almost makes too much sense, doesn't it?
And, by the way, Sheets's ZiPS projection in Texas? According to the esteemed Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory, 12-7 with a 3.62 ERA (126 ERA+), presumably over 150-plus innings. Virtually everything about this potential marriage between Sheets and the Rangers hinges on the state of his health (in fact, Heyman curiously wrote on Friday afternoon that new medical reports had been circulated amongst those teams interested in his services that "may have sparked some renewed interest," whatever that means), but at two guaranteed years and $18 million, that's three-win production (or better) at a two-win price.
In other words, an emphatic slam dunk in every sense -- assuming that the Rangers prove capable of closing the deal.
Stay tuned. And maybe, just maybe, dare to hope.
QUICK HITS
● Honorees at Friday evening's Sluggers of the West Awards Dinner at Eddie Deen's Ranch in Dallas included Josh Hamilton (Player of the Year), Vicente Padilla (Pitcher of the Year), who was unable to attend due to visa problems, Chris Davis (Rookie of the Year), Derek Holland (Nolan Ryan Minor League Pitcher of the Year), Nelson Cruz (Minor League Player of the Year), Jose Vallejo (Minor League Defender of the Year), Ian Kinsler (Jim Sundberg Community Achievement Award) and Ron Washington (Harold McKinney Good Guy Award).
● You don't want to miss the latest from the Dallas Morning News's Mike Hindman, Rangerfans.com's Joe Siegler or TexasLeaguers.com's Trip Somers. Trust me on that.
Reader Comments (12)
This deal makes to much sense to pass up. Makes me want to go out an now buy my season tickets!
Engel's article reads like she talked to someone sitting at the table, very interesting. I'm optimistic, not just from reading this, but because of the buzz about Perez and the Mets of the last few days. I'd rather gamble on Sheets' health than Perez' inconsistency.
Hmmm.... maybe the Mets' reported interest in Sheets is just a tactic to get Perez to hurry up and take their offer. The story is intriguing. A Sheets signing in Texas would be a huge deal - even bigger than the Millwood signing years ago, right? We need to do something - Oakland looks to be a heck of a lot better next year than they were in 2008. And I don't think the Angels are done yet, either.
You know, I'm having a hard time drawing a parallel between a potential Sheets signing and the signing of a notable free-agent pitcher by the Rangers other than Millwood...I guess the upside here is obviously greater than it was with Millwood, but so is the risk...
It's a good question, Joey. And after having just reviewed the careers numbers of both Sheets and Millwood, I was somewhat surprised - Millwood has had at least as good of a career, if not better. Sheets has consistently had better control, but Millwood has had a few seasons with drastically lower earned run averages... I guess the big question is how much does Millwood have left in the tank, and whether the Millwood of 2008 & 2007 is what we are to expect from now on, or whether he can get back to 2006 Millwood. And with Sheets - can we expect 200 innings out of him?
The bottom line, though, has to be the money. If you're paying 12 million each for Millwood & Padilla, paying 8 + incentives for Sheets seems like a no-brainer, especially considering Millwood & Padilla will be moving on at some point in 2009. So even if Sheets does get hurt and can't pitch much for us, it seems like a gamble worth pursuing. That's my 2 pennies.
Upside and risk, yep on both counts. But the Rangers are a team in position to take that kind of risk right now. The Mets need to contend right now, and if Sheets goes down with an injury, it would hurt them more than the Rangers, who are less likely to be in serious contention. The Rangers can sign Sheets hoping for the best for 2009, but looking to him as a potential leader for a playoff run in 2010.
Sheets is a true Ace when he's healthy and everyone knows that. If he's healthy 1/2 the year that price would still be worth it. I'm going to guess that if Sheets isn't all that healthy he'll get 7-8 wins this year. Add those 7-8 wins on top of last year and subtract the innings he saves the bullpen when he makes a quality start and the Rangers have a large improvement to their team for a reasonable price. Not to metion the mental stress he will take off Milwood and Padilla (assuming they're still around).
So I wonder if this means there's another deal looming that involves a salary dump?
I'm also wondering if perhaps Ryan talked Hicks into just opening up his pocketbooks a little more. Think of it this way:
If we add Sheets, while also retaining Millwood and Padilla, you're talking about 2 pitchers in their contract year. Obviously the contract year is the ultimate motivator. Add that to the fact that both pitchers would be dropped a spot in the rotation to face arguably less talented pitchers and it's not out of the realm of possibility both could post 12-15 win next season. Now as long as Millwood doesn't hit his innings mark (which I doubt the Rangers will allow to happen unless we're in a playoff push), then he and Padilla hit their free agent years both likely type B, but also possibly type A free agency which obviously leads to more drat picks for the Rangers to continue to restock this stacked farm system. That way, if the Rangers do dip heavily into free agency after this season (when Blalock's contract also comes off the books), then they'll have extra draft picks they won't have to worry about losing.
Just trying to play GM here.
Okay, so it now appears the Rangers are taking the "play it slow" approach:
http://www.star-telegram.com/284/story/1163351.html
The overriding concern still has to be that the Rangers will wait too long to close the deal and one of the New York teams -- or perhaps a surprise late entrant into the sweepstakes -- will benefit as a result. It doesn't appear that the hold-up is frugality so much as it is prudence, however.
Joey, as to the swooping in concern, I'm feeling that if the NY teams swoop in and offer a good deal, that might mean it's more than the Rangers are willing to bear in dollar terms in addition to the injury risk. If that is the case, I have no problem being "outbid". I would guess that the Rangers have a fairly specific number ceiling under which they are willing to take the gamble. If the bidding goes above it they will wave bye bye to Sheets and I can't say I wouldn't do the same.
It all hinges on the medicals. If it looks like there's too great a chance Sheets will be this year's Jennings (end up having surgery after thinking r & r would work) then they might just be better off with Jennings this year.
I don't get why Sheets isn't after a one year incentive deal to reestablish his value. If he did well this year he would get much better offers in a thinner market next winter.
And if he were to change course and decide to pursue a one-year deal (prepare for a popular refrain here), one would think Texas would be the last place he would want to attempt to rebuild his value -- unless the proximity to his home in Highland Park and his relationship with Maddux and his adulation for Nolan is just all too compelling.