Professor Parks Prospect Q&A
Jason Parks
Is Johnny Whittleman (pictured) the top third base prospect in the Rangers organization?First of all, I want to thank everyone who submitted questions for the first ever Professor Parks Prospect Q&A. The response was overwhelming and the questions were excellent. I tried to answer as many as possible, but due to the sheer volume I had to exclude a few. Many apologies if your question was left on the cutting room floor.
Let's get started.
● ● ● ● ●
Q: When does Justin Smoak smoke his first major league home run?
Professor Parks: Smoak will probably smoke his first major league home run in April 2010.
Q: If brought up right now, who would be a better major league pitcher: [Neftali] Feliz or [Derek] Holland?
Professor Parks: As it stands now, I think that Holland has the more balanced arsenal and would fare better if forced into a major league rotation. However, Feliz has the single best pitch in the entire minor leagues (and perhaps the best fastball in all of professional baseball) and would absolutely dominate out of the bullpen if brought up to start the year.
Q: Is Max [Ramirez] going to be on the Opening Day roster?
Professor Parks: No. Max is going to start behind the plate in AAA.
Q: Which Ranger will have the biggest impact at the World Baseball Classic?
Professor Parks: Joey Matschulat.
Q: Will [Elvis] Andrus bat over the Mendoza line? Will he lead the league in errors at the shortstop position?
Professor Parks: Andrus will bat over the Mendoza line. If he plays a full season at the major league level, Andrus will probably lead the league in errors.
Q: Who does Ron Washington like the best in the farm system?
Professor Parks: I have no idea. Marcus Lemon strikes me as a player Washington would like. He is the son of a former major leaguer and his character/make-up/hustle/good face are off the charts.
Q: Will we get more out of the Gerald Laird trade than we did the Juan Gonzalez trade?
Professor Parks: Probably not.
Q: Which top prospect will be the new Benji Gil or Laynce Nix?
Professor Parks: Julio Borbon makes the most sense, but I don't really agree with it. Borbon will be a much better major leaguer than either Gil or Nix.
Q: Which prospects do you see ending up on the major league roster by the end of the season?
Professor Parks: Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Max Ramirez, Julio Borbon, Guillermo Moscoso, Thomas Diamond, Elvis Andrus and Jose Vallejo should all end the '09 season on the major league roster.
Q: Which pitching prospects currently in starting roles do you/the Rangers envision being more effective out of the bullpen?
Professor Parks: Wilmer Font, Thomas Diamond, Michael Schlact, Richard Bleier, Tim Murphy, Kasey Kiker, Tommy Hunter, Carlos Pimentel, Eric Hurley, Fabio Castillo, Evan Reed and Zach Phillips, just to name a few.
Q: Do you think the Rangers will use the approach the Yankees/Red Sox have taken with Joba Chamberlain and Justin Masterson and start off some of our top prospects in the major league bullpen before transitioning them into starting roles?
Professor Parks: Depends on the pitcher and the roster situation at the time. Some can handle a bullpen assignment and some can't.
Q: With Michael Young taking over third base on the big league club for the foreseeable future, do you see the Rangers drafting high school corner infield help as something that could be a replacement five years down the road, or do you think they'll concentrate on developing a capable backup in the next couple of years?
Professor Parks: I think it would be in the Rangers' best interest to develop a capable backup for the future as well as concentrating on a future replacement. I don't think the next long-term starting third baseman is currently in the Rangers' system.
Q: You've said that you talk with scouts some. Are you talking with Rangers scouts, or other teams' scouts, mostly one or the other, or a mix?
Professor Parks: The majority of the scouts I have a relationship with work for other organizations. I do have several friends within the Rangers organization, but I'm very careful not to use information I receive from them in my reports.
Q: Are you going to spring training this year and filing reports?
Professor Parks: I will be attending spring training, but I'm not sure I'm going to be writing reports.
Q: List, in order, the ten best pitches thrown by Rangers prospects (e.g., Feliz fastball #1, Holland fastball #2, etc).
Professor Parks:
- Neftali Feliz (Fastball)
- Derek Holland (Fastball)
- Wilmer Font (Fastball)
- Neil Ramirez (Curveball)
- Omar Poveda (Change-up)
- Tommy Hunter (Curveball)
- Michael Main (Fastball)
- Martin Perez (Curveball)
- Corey Young (Curveball)
- Pedro Strop (Fastball)
Q: Which five Rangers prospects are most likely to debut on Baseball America's Top 100 prospects list in 2010 if [Justin] Smoak, [Derek] Holland, and [Martin] Perez debut on the 2009 list?
Professor Parks: Tough question. I'll say Michael Main, Neil Ramirez, Blake Beavan, Engel Beltre, and Wilfredo Boscan.
Q: Among the eleven minor leaguers listed below, whose prospect statuses do you expect to go up and whose prospect statuses do you expect to go down in 2009?
Professor Parks:
- Kasey Kiker: Down
- Omar Poveda: Up
- Blake Beavan: Way up
- Michael Main: Up
- Wilfredo Boscan: Slightly up
- Joe Wieland: Way up
- Neil Ramirez: Up
- Wilmer Font: Down
- Mitch Moreland: Up
- Engel Beltre: Up
- Cristian Santana: Only place to go is up
Q: Have you heard any recent reports on [Joaquin] Arias's shoulder? Will he be able to play shortstop in 2009?
Professor Parks: I haven't heard anything positive about Arias's shoulder.
Q: It seems the Rangers' system will soon be looking at a glut of starting pitching from AA down to the rookie league. Strategically, does it make more sense to try and cycle the arms through the system as rapidly as possible, culling them out at the major league level, or trade them out for younger prospects as they move up?
Professor Parks: You have to look at each pitcher as an individual. Some can handle an aggressive promotion schedule and some require more time at one level. The rotation chaos will be sorted out by moving some starters into the bullpen. Some will be temporary moves and some will be permanent.
Q: Can Justin Smoak play left field? I hate to make Chris Davis a designated hitter so early in his career.
Professor Parks: Don't worry about making Davis into a designated hitter at an early stage in his career. You have to find a way to get Smoak and Davis into the same lineup and both players are limited defensively. Smoak is a natural first baseman. He would not be able to play another defensive position.
Q: Are there statistical methods to project how minor leaguers will perform defensively in the majors based on their defensive stats in the minors? This relates, of course, to [Elvis] Andrus. I know this largely depends on the quality of the minor league field, but what can we realistically expect from Andrus defensively in 2009?
Professor Parks: Andrus is going to make plays that absolutely blow your mind. His range is pretty insane and he always seems to know where the ball will be hit. That said, if he plays a full season he is going to make a lot of errors. On some plays he will look like Omar Vizquel, and on others he will look like a 20-year-old making the jump to the majors from AA.
Q: Even before the final switch of Young to third base, it seemed the Rangers were kicking the tires on other third basemen around the league. What do our third base prospects look like for the future, and in what order would you rate them?
Professor Parks: Third base is not a position of strength in the Rangers' minor league system. I would rank the third base prospects like this:
- Johnny Whittleman
- Matt West
- Jonathan Greene
- Miguel Moreno
- Emmanuel Solis
Q: I'd like to see your take on the best tools/pitches in the system, similar to what Baseball America puts out with their organization reports, but maybe with the top three and some details on how you came to your conclusions.
Professor Parks:
Best Hitters for Average
- Julio Borbon
- Max Ramirez
- Renny Osuna
Best Power Hitters
- Justin Smoak
- Mitch Moreland
- Cristian Santana
Best Strike Zone Discipline
- Justin Smoak
- Max Ramirez
- Marcus Lemon
Fastest Baserunners
- Greg Golson
- Jose Vallejo
- Julio Borbon
Best Athletes
- Greg Golson
- Jose Vallejo
- Michael Main
Best Fastballs
- Neftali Feliz
- Derek Holland
- Wilmer Font
Best Curveballs
- Neil Ramirez
- Tommy Hunter
- Martin Perez
Best Sliders
- Warner Madrigal
- Eric Hurley
- Kyle O'Campo
Best Change-ups
- Omar Poveda
- Kasey Kiker
- Thomas Diamond
Best Control
- Derek Holland
- Wilfredo Boscan
- Blake Beavan
Best Defensive Catchers
- Taylor Teagarden
- Manny Pina
- Leonel De Los Santos
Defensive Infielders
- Elvis Andrus
- Jose Vallejo
- Leury Garcia
Best Infield Arms
- Elvis Andrus
- Jose Vallejo
- Emmanuel Solis
Best Defensive Outfielders
- David Paisano
- Greg Golson
- Julio Borbon
Best Outfield Arms
- Greg Golson
- David Paisano
- Engel Beltre
Q: How is Arias's shoulder? Is he an option to back up [Elvis] Andrus? Can [German] Duran play shortstop? Who is the best defensive shortstop in the system behind Andrus?
Professor Parks: Duran has played some shortstop in the past, but you don't want to see his name penciled in at shortstop for an extended period. The best defensive shortstop behind Andrus is Jose Vallejo, followed by Leury Garcia.
Q: Texas has never hurt for offense. Obviously the Rangers have a number of big-name prospects that are going to debut in the next few years (at least we are all praying for this). Most of them seem to be pitchers, which is something we have not had around here in quite some time, so I am just assuming that by 2011, the Rangers have a legitimate number one starter and a decent rotation. My question is, if we have a really good offense (which sounds like it should happen) and an above-average starting rotation (which sounds possible), will the Rangers be able to catch and throw well enough to make a legitimate playoff run come 2011?
Professor Parks: Yes. First of all, the infield defense will be much improved by 2011. Young is going to be a solid third baseman and Andrus has the natural ability to be a very good defensive shortstop. The outfield defense will be well above average with the speedy Julio Borbon in center field and Josh Hamilton in right field. If Taylor Teagarden is the starting catcher, an already solid defense could become an excellent one.
Q: What should the Rangers' 2009 draft priorities be?
Professor Parks: Best player available.
Q: What's Professor Parks's personal favorite prospect right now?
Professor Parks: I try to stay away from having personal favorites because it can cloud my ability to remain objective, but we all know that I struggle with that anyway, so here is my list: Michael Main, Tim Murphy, and Wilfredo Boscan.
Q: Can you tell us anything about the mechanics of [Neftali] Feliz and [Derek] Holland? With both pumping fastballs in the mid-to-high 90s, it should be very important to the Rangers that both have mechanics that will allow them to pitch a high number of innings without creating another Mark Prior/Kerry Wood scenario. As I haven't found much video of either, I was hoping you might have some observations that you could share.
Professor Parks: I'll let pitching guru Trip Somers from the terrific website TexasLeaguers.com tackle this question:
Holland and Feliz both have the ability to throw in the mid-90s. Holland's mechanics remind me of Tim Lincecum's, though Holland's stride isn't as pronounced. He gets amazing power out of the way he flexes his core, and he has a high three-quarters arm angle, which I feel tends to reduce a lot of elbow problems. I haven't had a look at him in slow motion, but he seems to do a good job of limiting his risk factors. Holland's velocity climbed throughout the 2008 season, hitting 98 mph several times while with Double-A Frisco. Not only did Holland not wear down, he got stronger. I believe this is a positive sign for his future health.
Feliz is another beast altogether. I saw him mostly in Frisco, where he was usually limited to between 60 and 80 pitches. As with Holland, I haven't seen him in slow motion, but his legs and core remain very tall and seem pretty quiet as he moves through his delivery. Thanks to his ridiculous arm speed, he still generates 100 mph heat. Even after cracking the 120-inning mark last season, Feliz was still sitting at 96-98 mph in gamesFeliz typically throws with a very low three-quarters arm angle, though his arm angle creeps up when he throws his curveball. At full speed, Feliz appears to be supinating (turning his palm up) at release when he throws his curveball. This can be a risk factor for a number of elbow problems, but without slow-motion analysis, it's nearly impossible to tell what is actually happening. This is especially true with an arm as fast as Feliz's.
Q: You and Joey put out a tremendous top prospects list -- definitely looking forward to seeing how No. 1A Michael Main progresses this year. Where would the newly acquired [Guillermo] Moscoso rank on your list? The number of bats he misses has me pretty fired up about his potential. Do you agree?
Professor Parks: Moscoso would rank somewhere in the mid-teens. I like his potential quite a bit. His ability to miss bats is a major plus, but I'm not sure he will be able to stick in a major league rotation without better secondary stuff.
Q: If we sign Freddy Garcia, and then extend his contract, do you see any chance for an all-Venezuelan rotation -- [Wilfredo] Boscan, [Wilmer] Font, Garcia, [Martin] Perez and [Omar] Poveda -- by 2012?
Professor Parks: No. I think it will be highly unlikely that Boscan, Font, and Perez all make it past AA, much less pitch in the same major league rotation.
Q: Which prospects appear to be sure-fire, can't-miss players who we will not only see in Arlington, but who also have a greater chance than most to be around for quite a while? As for current Rangers that would have fit into that category when they were on the farm, Michael Young and Ian Kinsler come to mind. As for the "be around for quite a while" part of my question, I'm [assuming] the likes of Chris Davis would NOT fit into this category ... not because he will not be sure-fire and can't-miss, but because he has [Scott] Boras as an agent. For that reason, I'm betting Justin Smoak would be the answer to this question.
Professor Parks: Justin Smoak, Taylor Teagarden, Max Ramirez, Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon will all no doubt reach the major leagues and, in all likelihood, enjoy long careers. I'm hesitant to include any pitcher on this list, but if I did, I would say that Feliz and Holland stand the best chances at enjoying long major league careers.
Q: Why do you think Tommy Hunter and Martin Perez, two of the Rangers' top 10 pitching prospects, were not invited to the Rangers' pitching mini-camp?
Professor Parks: I'm not sure about Tommy Hunter, but I think the Rangers were wise to exclude Perez from this mini-camp. First of all, he is only 17 years old and he spent the majority of 2008 away from his native Venezuela. It's important for the Rangers to balance the needs of the team and the needs of the players. Given Perez's age and proximity to the majors, I think it was a smart decision to allow him the luxury of remaining at home as long as possible.
Reader Comments (39)
Outstanding stuff, Thanks.
Your answer regarding the Venezuelans, is there a concern with any one of the 3 you predict may not make it past AA, or are you basing that on the odds?
Um, wow.
Do you think Moscoso could be added to that potential bullpen group? That K rate needs to be utilized in some form or fashion if he can't hack it in the rotation.
A Stephens: Just the odds.
t ball: Yes. Moscoso should be included in the bullpen group. His secondary stuff would have to take a step forward to stick in a major league rotation.
The ol' trick answer. OK Professor. Which prospects will be on the 25 man roster come Aug 31?
Very informative, thank you!
Great, great stuff Jason. I was wondering, how many of those pitches in the top 10 pitches list are plus pitches or at least project to be plus pitches?
Gdawg: All of the pitches in the top ten project to be plus pitches.
Potential grades above 60 (20/80):
Feliz (fastball) 80
Holland (fastball) 70/75
Font (fastball) 70
Ramirez (curve) 70
Poveda (change) 65
OK, Jason that was awesome. Thanks.
Great expose, dude. The John-Josh-Jason trio is the shiz.
Who's Josh?
Joey: Josh is your replacement. Sorry you had to find out this way.
Professor Parks: Now that Eric Hurley is done for the season, what immediate effect does this have on the Rangers pitching staff, being that Hurley was projected to be one of the starting five?
In other words, who moves up, or who moves out of the bullpen? How do the Rangers address the situation in the coming weeks? I know we have tons of talent in the oven, and someone will surprise us this year, do the Rangers just stand pat and hope for someone to "breakout"?
Doh! First I said Taylor Buchholtz, then Josh Matschulat. I'm hanging my virtual head in shame.
C'mon Rangers: I think Hurley's injury secures the 5th spot for Matt Harrison. Assuming we sign Sheets, the rotation will look like this:
Sheets
Millwood
Padilla
McCarthy
Harrison
When McCarthy goes on the DL the rotation spot will be occupied by either Feldman, Hunter or Gabbard. Holland and Feliz will see action in the rotation at some point during the '09 season.
I'll try to redeem myself by addressing my question to an actual person (Jason), rather than some random name that begins with "J."
Jason, from your very well-informed view, do think Feliz will be given a shot as a starter with Texas first, or should we expect an announcement at some point this season telling us that Feliz will be promoted to Arlington and will serve as a reliever in the late innings with a view towards him being the closer in Arlington for years to come?
Professor Parks: McCarthy DL?
Are you just assuming he will be on the DL, based upon his prior history of not being able to avoid the DL? The last I heard about McCarthy was he has gained weight, and was saying he's 100% healthy.
Thanks
I think Feliz's role with the '09 Rangers will be determined by 1) the situation (standings, injuries, etc.) and 2) by Feliz's performance/health.
If the Rangers are competitive I can see Feliz getting some late inning relief work ala Joba in '07. If the Rangers are out of it and dealing with injuries, I can see Feliz getting some starts. Either way, Feliz will pitch for the Rangers at some point in '09.
McCarthy saying he is healthy doesn't exactly instill confidence. I also don't think his weight gain should be championed until proven it doesn't come at the expense of flexibility and/or mechanical consistency. He will be on the DL at some point in '09. Book it.
Jason...great stuff.
With Hurley going down...does that create an opportunity for Hunter at mini-camp?
UTBlair: Mini-camp ends today and I believe Hunter was already a participant. I will have brief mini-camp specific interviews with Michael Main, Tim Murphy, Kasey Kiker coming up in a few days.
Heh, we turn the comments to the Q & A into another Q & A. Thanks, Jason.
No problem tball. I hope people continue to ask questions. I really enjoy answering them (or at least trying to).
Thanks for answering my questions.....with viszquel being signed as utility, what happens to duran....he looks like AAA?
who's SS at AAA
What's the opening starting rotation at AAA and who is the closer?
Awesome work Jason, this (plus the comments section) is a great read.
On Smoak and Davis, how do you think the Rangers might try and get them both into the lineup? From what I've heard, the only place Davis might be able to move and not put a serious drain on the defense is RF - which, by 2010 projects to be Josh Hamilton's home. As much as I hate to admit it, the most likely outcome of Smoak/Davis seems to be a trade involving one of them... if that becomes reality, which one do you think is more likely to be traded: Davis because of his contract with Boras, or Smoak because he's not an established player yet (similar to what happened with Teixeira and A-Gon)?
Terry: If Omar Vizquel is on the 25, German Duran will be playing in AAA.
Earlier today, Kevin Goldstein mentioned to me that he heard a few positive things regarding Arias's shoulder. I'm not sure what to make of that information. If Arias is healthy, which is something I will have to see to believe, then he should be the starting SS in AAA.
The AAA rotation could (huge emphasis on the "could") look something like this:
Holland
Hunter
Hyatt
Diamond
Ballard
Closer: Madrigal
Jon: Look at it this way: The Rangers must eventually decide between Smoak/Davis at 1B, Ramirez/Davis at DH or Ramirez/Teagarden/Salty behind the plate. In all likelihood, one of the three will not be with the team in 2010.
My gut tells me that Max Ramirez is the man that packs his bags. As much as the Rangers could use his RH bat in the middle of the line-up, I think the Rangers will elect to keep Davis as the DH and Smoak at 1B.
Eventually, the Rangers will have to confront Boras regarding a long-term deal for Davis. It's possible that because of the team's future outlook and his local loyalties, Davis bypasses the Boras agenda and signs a deal. If not, Davis will have to be dealt as well and the Rangers will be left without the services of both Ramirez and Davis. Worst possible outcome.
That's exactly the question I have Jon Page!
Except I see them both being utilized (or at least hope) with Davis being a DH, since Smoak has the better defense, yet is so limited because of how slow he is that he can't go anywhere but 1B. By the time he arrives, you hope to know who your catcher is (assuming one will get moved), or figure out who else can play 3B. If Mike Young could possibly be moved, which obviously is highly unlikely. I like Mike Young, just not the contract, so in a perfect world I would move him if possible. Sorry, not popular I know, and yes it would be tough. That's the stance I have until we have MLB ready pitching here that delivers, and it's not spending that's limited within the organization, so we can't afford said pitching, or one of these could be a stud players.
My question along these lines (to Jason):Is it entirely out of the question for Davis to be able to one day play 3B? Is his defense just so raw that he can't handle it, or at least it's not projected that he could? I know Mike Young is there now, but Davis/Smoak in the long run is our future offense, barring some Boras complications? How do you see the log jam of 1B, C, DH types shaken out? There are really a lot of scenarios that could unfold with this jam, it's enough to drive the roto mind insane!
Thanks this has been the hottest topic on my mind based on what is, and what could be, and what may never be at all.
C'mon Rangers: If the goal is to improve team defense, putting Chris Davis at 3B would not be a good idea. Barring an injury, Michael Young is going to be the long-term third baseman for the Texas Rangers.
My personal opinion here, but I'm not sure it's a foregone conclusion that the Vizquel is a member of the Rangers on opening day. I think he's more a contingency plan if Andrus looks overwhelmed in Spring Training.
For me, signing that veteran utility player in a Vizquel mold is more of a '10-'11 move, not a move this year when we need to get younger players at bats.
JP, Madrigal is going to have a tough time closing games for OKC when he is in the Rangers bullpen.
Thanks Jason.
I was posting while you responded to the initial question. What you said in that response [to Jon Page] regarding my question is probably what will happen, unless it's Salty who could get dealt first... If Max Ram improves as a catcher, and remains a catcher as thought by Baseball America's Ben Badler in the forum (Max Ramirez Appreciation Station) that Joey posted. I sure hope we find a way to utilize Max Ram as well.
I sure hope Warner brings back the fro! I for one was a fan of it hands down, being that it was intimidating, seeing that it makes you wonder what's up with all that? An advantage he should jump on board with, gaining whatever psychological edge on the opponent that he can.
Rob: I hope Madrigal is in the Rangers pen, but if they sign Sheets and go with this rotation:
Sheets
Millwood
Padilla
McCarthy
Harrison
..that will leave these bullpen candidates: Francisco, Wilson, Feldman, Nippert, Benoit, Rupe, Gabbard, Eyre, Bannister, Torres, Madrigal, Mathis, Mendoza, etc..
As I said, I would like to see Madrigal given a major league assignment. But considering he has minor league options remaining, I think it's entirely possible to see him start off in AAA.
If Madrigal isn't the AAA closer, a guy like Laughter could step into that role.
I will chime in and say that I think there's a very good chance Texas brings in some sort of veteran left-handed help in the bullpen (be it Ohman, Guardado, or somebody else) on a relatively cheap short-term deal, because I don't really think the Rangers want to go into the season with C.J. as their lone relief southpaw, and suffice it to say I'm quite low on the projected effectiveness of Gabbard and Torres -- if either of them breaks camp on the 25-man roster, it's probably not a good sign.
Francisco/Wilson/Benoit are obviously all locks, and I suppose Nippert is the current favorite for the long relief/swing man role. If that five-man rotation comes together and remains healthy through the spring (a scenario which I don't foresee as probable), Feldman's probably at the forefront of that mix as well.
I think it's more likely Turnbow is tabbed as the last RHP in the bullpen than Madrigal, honestly, but that could go in a number of different directions.
At first I disagreed with you, Jason, regarding retaining Davis for DH and shipping out Max. I figured their bats may be very close but Davis would have more trade value because of his D, whereas Max may be a career DH. With four years (next offseason) still remaining until Davis is a free agent, I figured with a great season we might have a shot at Matt Cain. But looking more closely at their projected 2010 lineup, I'm noticing it is very heavy on right handed hitters.
Right (5): Kinsler, Young, Andrus, Cruz, Teagarden
Left (2): Hamilton, Borbon
Both (1): Smoak
Now, I'm assuming Salty gets dealt because JD values defense and Teagarden is more gifted in that realm, otherwise that would add another switch hitter. But in this scenario, out of our eight hitters we only have three batting from the left side in a ballpark that heavily favors lefties. So, if this is the crop we're moving forward with, I would agree that it would be better to retain Davis and Smoak and find a taker for Max. But we'll see how it all plays out.
I'm offended Blake Beavan's "filthiest slider he's ever seen" didn't make your top 10 pitches. ;)
leury is the best arm in the team