On the statistical surface, it appears that John Mayberry Jr. has finally turned the corner as a legit Major League prospect. After nearly 1,500 career minor league at-bats, Mayberry's performance finally caught up to the potential after a promotion to Triple-A Oklahoma, where he has put up a batting line of .295/.353/.538 in 234 AB.

That said, I'm not going to list the players the Rangers passed on in order to draft Mayberry in the first round of the 2005 Rule 4 Draft. It makes me depressed, and frankly I'm trying to move past it.

Okay, I'm a masochist. The Rangers, who desperately needed to acquire legit outfield talent, passed on center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury from Oregon State University, who was eventually drafted by the Boston Red Sox four picks later at 23rd overall. Draft hindsight is a futile exercise, but I just can't help myself. Other players drafted after Mayberry in the first/supplemental round included Matt Garza, Colby Rasmus, Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden. Not a bad collection of talent.

Of course, this doesn't mean that Mayberry is another Drew Meyer. He isn't. Mayberry has legit Major League power and the athleticism to handle a corner outfield position at the next level. However, I'm still having a hard time believing that Mayberry will be an effective hitter at the Major League level.

Mayberry is a very large man. He is a legit 6' 6", and probably weighs more than the listed 230 pounds. He is a mountain. However, this mountain comes with long arms that sometimes have trouble hitting balls that bust him inside. He is also prone to happy-feet, and doesn't always maintain a uniform motion with his swing. This has led to an underwhelming and ultimately inconsistent offensive output as a professional.

Mayberry can absolutely smash balls that are left out over the plate. Of course, so can most Major League hitters. That's why most Major League pitchers don't generally throw the ball in that location. If Junior is given the opportunity to extend his arms, he can really do damage to a ball. Huge power. Unfortunately, he has a tendency to try and pull everything, as is evidenced by the balls in play data. Mayberry directly pulls 39.6 percent of all balls he puts into play; 80.3 percent of all balls in play are hit to the left and center sides of the diamond. He has yet to consistently demonstrate the ability to adjust to the pitch and use all parts of the field.

He has an OPS of .891 at Oklahoma, so it's easy to assume that Junior is on his way to becoming the next Jermaine Dye. I'm still not sold. It's a fact that his numbers have improved from other levels, but some of the stats are painting a different picture. For example, his strikeout percentage has increased each month and his line drive percentage has decreased over the same period. This suggests to me that it is the pitchers who are adjusting to Mayberry and not the other way around. Very small sample size, and of course July is still in its infancy, but when a player with a history of high strikeout/low contact rates takes even a baby step back towards the norm, it can be a warning sign.

"C'mon Jason, open your eyes. June was his most productive month as a hitter. He put up an OPS of .947 in June!" Well, that is excellent. But OPS isn't a perfect stat, and his adjustments, or lack thereof, are more telling to me than what he is doing against mediocre, mistake-prone AAA pitchers. He currently sports a 7.7 percent walk rate with a growing strikeout rate. At this stage, I'd much rather see Mayberry improve his on-base skills than watch his slugging percentage improve.

This is coming off like a Mayberry bash and that wasn't my intention. He has finally performed to his draft status thus far this season, and I really hope that he continues to develop as a ballplayer. That said, I have some concerns about how his bat will play at the Major League level against pitchers who can consistently command and locate their pitches. I've seen Mayberry play several times, but not enough to accurately claim that he has a Bottsian hole in his swing. There are some telltale signs, but nothing that is beyond adjustment. Of course, my argument is that I question Mayberry's ability to execute those adjustments. After 1500 minor league at-bats, I would hope that his swing/approach isn't still a work in progress.

Mayberry's MLE (major league equivalency) based on his AAA statistics thus far this season: .250/.292/.436 with 8 HR, 32 RBI and a K/BB ratio of 42/14 in 239 AB.

Question: What do you expect out of Mayberry going forward - statistically speaking?