The BTiA Top 25 Prospect Rankings

Unprecedented.

There is simply no other way to accurately - or succinctly - describe the remarkable minor league overhaul conducted by Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels and his estimable cabinet of lieutenants over the past 12-odd months.

On April 5th, 2007, Baseball America's Jim Callis ranked the Rangers' farm system as the 28th-best in baseball, marking the organization's lowest talent ranking since 1996 (also 28th). Ironically, that evaluation preceded a four-year window of prosperity that found the Rangers claiming three out of four American League Western Division titles, albeit with minimal post-season success.

Sustained Major League success, however, requires a steady, invariable influx of fresh, high-grade young talent relentlessly flowing down the minor league pipeline towards the big leagues. And although Texas registered eighth in Baseball America's 1999 organization talent rankings, the underlying problem was that much of that upper-tier ranking was derived from Ruben Mateo's ninth-overall standing in that year's Top 100 prospect rankings.

The Rangers' next highest-ranking prospect, infielder Kelly Dransfeldt, clocked in at 65th-overall in 1999. First baseman Carlos Pena, the last of the three Texas prospects to procure a spot in those 1999 rankings, came in at 93rd-overall.

Dransfeldt never quite lived up to his immense potential, playing in just 36 games as a Ranger before employing sixth-year minor league free agency after the 2002 season and departing from the organization for good; he retired just two years later. Pena was traded to Oakland in January 2002 as part of a six-player deal, but required stops with three more organizations before his massive 46-homer breakout campaign with Tampa Bay in 2007.

And Mateo, the singular five-tool talent that was nearly dealt - along with right-handers Esteban Loiaza and Jonathan Johnson - to Toronto in February 1999 in exchange for future Hall of Famer Roger Clemens (before the hated New York Yankees swooped in to grab him), succumbed to innumerable injury woes before being traded - along with third base prospect Edwin Encarnacion - to Cincinnati in June 2001 for the horrendously bad Rob Bell.

Building a top-notch farm system is as dependent on intelligent talent diversification and careful resource management as it is on possessing one or two premium assets. Few organizations are lucky or blessed enough to wield talent repositories stocked with not only multiple high-end prospects, but also immensely deep reservoirs filled to the brim with up-and-coming players that promise to impact the future of the big league club through both trade and gradual ascension to the majors.

The Texas Rangers are one of those lucky few.

Through multiple trade deadline deals consummated by Daniels last July, an exemplary June drafting effort overseen by scouting director Ron Hopkins and company, and yet another promising Latin American haul headed by international scouting director A.J. Preller, the Rangers vaulted to fourth-overall in Baseball America's February 2008 organization talent rankings. That mark figures to be only further amplified by the introduction of 2008 first-round draft pick Justin Smoak into the fold, as well as the continuing emergence of that tremendous quantity of young talent.

I am now proud to present the inaugural BTiA Top 25 Mid-Season Prospect Rankings, an entirely collaborative effort by the respected Jason Parks and myself that required days of painstaking research and deliberation to unanimously complete. In a highly abbreviated format, I have outlined each player's ranking, physical attributes, point of origin and most up-to-date statistical profile, while Parks has investigated each player's strengths and weaknesses, pinpointed their ultimate upside, and projected their estimated date of arrival to the big leagues.

Four brief notes before we get started:

? Our actual ranking methodology is comprised of a multitude of variables, including upside, tools, proximity to the big leagues, age, statistics, and - in a few cases - our gut instincts. Talent trumps all, of course.

? Statistics are only from that respective player's most recent stop; for instance, Chris Davis's dominant statistical line at Double-A Frisco is not included, even though he has received more playing time there this season than at Triple-A Oklahoma. In the rare instances where 2008 statistics are not available, 2007 statistics are listed with a notation.

A couple of special exceptions are made where the Major League statistics are not adequately informative, and therefore I've reverted back to the minor league statistics for clarity's sake on those.

? Only players who had not yet accrued any Major League service time as of Opening Day 2008 were eligible for inclusion. This is a quick and painless way of excluding players who were not really considered prospects in the traditional sense going into the 2008 season, even if they still possessed their rookie eligibility (such as outfielder David Murphy).

? ETA dates past 2010 do not include Spring, Summer or Fall qualifiers, as it is too difficult to project halfway accurate arrival dates that far into the future; each label refers to a two-month window during the season. Spring, for example, refers to April and May; Summer refers to June and July, and Fall refers to August and September.

And now here, without any further ado, is the list:

#1 - RHP Neftali Feliz | DoB: 05/02/88 | 6? 3?, 180 lb.

Acquired via: Trade for 1B Mark Teixeira, LHP Ron Mahay (07/31/07)

74.1 IP, 6-2, 2.06 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 93 K, 26 BB (Clinton)

Pros: Plus-plus fastball; oozes projection

Cons: Inconsistent secondary offerings

Best Case Scenario: Top of the rotation starter

Realistic Scenario: Top of the rotation starter

ETA: Summer 2010

#2 - 1B Chris Davis | DoB: 03/17/86 | 6? 4?, 235 lb.

Acquired via: 2006 MLB Draft, 5th Round (148th overall)

106 AB, .349/.418/.717, 10 HR, 13 BB, 27 K, 2 SB (Oklahoma)

Pros: Enormous raw power

Cons: Questionable plate discipline

Best Case Scenario: Middle of the order masher capable of 40-plus HR annually

Realistic Scenario: Middle of the order masher that strikes out 150 times a year

ETA: Summer 2008

#3 - 1B Justin Smoak | DoB: 12/05/86 | 6' 4", 220 lb.

Acquired via: 2008 MLB Draft, 1st Round (11th overall)

235 AB, .383/.505/.757, 23 HR, 57 BB, 28 K, 1 SB (South Carolina)

Pros: Switch-hitter with power, excellent plate discipline and above-average defense at first base

Cons: Hasn�t played a professional game yet; below-average speed

Best Case Scenario: Middle of the order masher with Gold Glove-quality defense

Realistic Scenario: Middle of the order masher with average defense

ETA: Spring 2010

#4 - RHP Eric Hurley | DoB: 09/17/85 | 6? 4?, 195 lb.

Acquired via: 2004 MLB Draft, 1st Round (30th overall)

74.2 IP, 2-5, 5.30 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 72 K, 29 BB (Oklahoma)

Pros: Plus fastball command; bulldog mentality

Cons: Heavy fly ball tendencies; inconsistent secondary pitches

Best Case Scenario: Middle of the rotation innings eater

Realistic Scenario: Back of the rotation innings eater

ETA: Summer 2008

#5 - SS Elvis Andrus | DoB: 08/26/88 | 6' 0", 185 lb.

Acquired via: Trade for 1B Mark Teixeira, LHP Ron Mahay (07/31/07)

242 AB, .277/.335/.335, 1 HR, 17 BB, 47 K, 24 SB (Frisco)

Pros: Superior defensive shortstop with excellent range and smooth hands; only 19 and playing in AA

Cons: Still raw at the plate; lacks power

Best Case Scenario: Gold Glove-level defense, a high batting average and 40-plus SB potential

Realistic Scenario: Gold Glove-level defense with a slightly below league-average bat

ETA: Spring 2010

#6 - C Taylor Teagarden | DoB: 12/21/83 | 6' 1", 200 lb.

Acquired via: 2005 MLB Draft, 3rd Round (99th overall)

119 AB, .252/.382/.454, 5 HR, 23 BB, 35 K, 0 SB (Oklahoma)

Pros: Above-average receiver with solid on-base skills; some pop

Cons: Injury questions; high strikeout totals

Best Case Scenario: Gold Glove-level backstop with 20 HR potential

Realistic Scenario: Solid defensive catcher that hits about .260 with obnoxious strikeout totals

ETA: Spring 2009

#7 - DH/C Max Ramirez | DoB: 10/11/84 | 5' 11", 175 lb.

Acquired via: Trade for OF Kenny Lofton (07/27/07)

237 AB, .363/.457/.662, 17 HR, 36 BB, 56 K, 2 SB (Frisco)

Pros: Excellent plate discipline; developing power

Cons: Very limited defensively; not overly athletic

Best Case Scenario: DH masher similar to Edgar Martinez

Realistic Scenario: Average Major League hitter capable of a high on-base percentage

ETA: Summer 2008

#8 - LHP Kasey Kiker | DoB: 11/19/87 | 5? 10?, 170 lb.

Acquired via: 2006 MLB Draft, 1st Round (12th overall)

70.0 IP, 3-3, 5.14 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 60 K, 20 BB (Bakersfield)

Pros: Three Major League-quality pitches; tenacity on the bump

Cons: Limited projection based on small stature; struggles from the stretch

Best Case Scenario: Legit No. 2 starter in the mold of Mike Hampton

Realistic Scenario: Middle of the rotation starter with durability issues

ETA: 2011

#9 - OF Engel Beltre | DoB: 11/01/89 | 6? 1?, 169 lb.

Acquired via: Trade for RHP Eric Gagne (07/31/07)

308 AB, .269/.292/.393, 3 HR, 5 BB, 52 K, 10 SB (Clinton)

Pros: Seven-skill potential; still only 18 years old

Cons: Doesn�t take walks; struggles against left-handers

Best Case Scenario: Gold Glove-level defensive outfielder with above league-average OPS+

Realistic Scenario: Toolsy player that never reaches the big leagues

ETA: 2011

#10 - RHP Blake Beavan | DoB: 01/17/89 | 6' 7", 210 lb.

Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round (17th overall)

51.2 IP, 4-4, 3.31 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 24 K, 5 BB (Clinton)

Pros: Potential for two plus pitches; ace mentality

Cons: Doesn�t always repeat motion; low strikeout totals thus far

Best Case Scenario: Top of the rotation arm

Realistic Scenario: Middle of the rotation arm capable of 200 IP with league-average ERA

ETA: 2011

#11 - RHP Michael Main | DoB: 12/14/88 | 6' 1", 170 lb.

Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round (24th overall)

15.1 IP, 2-0, 4.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 18 K, 7 BB (2007 Spokane)

Pros: Exceptional athlete with mid-90s heater

Cons: Some mechanical issues that affect command; suffered freak rib injury in spring training

Best Case Scenario: Top of the rotation arm in the mold of Bret Saberhagen

Realistic Scenario: Middle of the rotation starter that flashes top of the rotation stuff

ETA: 2011

#12 - OF Julio Borbon | DoB: 02/20/86 | 6' 1", 180 lb.

Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round (35th overall)

282 AB, .309/.348/.401, 2 HR, 14 BB, 30 K, 36 SB (Bakersfield)

Pros: Above-average defensive center fielder with plus speed and high contact rates

Cons: Doesn�t take many walks; slightly below-average arm strength

Best Case Scenario: Top of the order speedster with Gold Glove-level defense

Realistic Scenario: Above-average defensive player with high contact rates, yet poor on-base skills

ETA: Fall 2009

#13 - RHP Neil Ramirez | DoB: 05/25/89 | 6' 3", 185 lb.

Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round (44th overall)

8.0 IP, 1-0, 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10 K, 6 BB (Spokane)

Pros: Potential for two plus pitches; projectable

Cons: Still raw; some mechanical issues

Best Case Scenario: Solid No. 2 starter

Realistic Scenario: Middle of the rotation horse

ETA: 2012

#14 - LHP Matt Harrison | DoB: 08/16/85 | 6' 4", 225 lb.

Acquired via: Trade for 1B Mark Teixeira, LHP Ron Mahay (07/31/07)

27 IP, 2-1, 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 13 K, 8 BB (Oklahoma)

Pros: Four solid pitches; plus command

Cons: Doesn�t miss many bats; not overly athletic

Best Case Scenario: Middle of the rotation starter

Realistic Scenario: Back of the rotation starter dependent on a strong defense

ETA: Fall 2008

#15 - 2B German Duran | DoB: 08/03/84 | 5' 10", 185 lb.

Acquired via: 2005 MLB Draft, 6th Round (189th overall)

73 AB, .219/.284/.356, 3 HR, 5 BB, 17 K, 1 SB (Texas)

Pros: Versatile defensive player with some pop

Cons: Struggles against right-handers; limited projection

Best Case Scenario: Starting second baseman at the Major League level

Realistic Scenario: Utility player

ETA: Spring 2008

#16 - OF/1B John Mayberry | DoB: 12/21/83 | 6' 6", 230 lb.

Acquired via: 2005 MLB Draft, 1st Round (19th overall)

197 AB, .310/.361/.553, 9 HR, 14 BB, 29 K, 3 SB (Oklahoma)

Pros: Tremendous power potential; athletic

Cons: Long swing; average defensive outfielder

Best Case Scenario: 35 HR with low batting average

Realistic Scenario: AAAA player with an exploitable hole in his swing

ETA: Spring 2009

#17 - RHP Wilmer Font | DoB: 05/24/90 | 6' 4", 235 lb.

Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2006)

45.2 IP, 2-3, 4.53 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 61 K, 24 BB (2007 Arizona)

Pros: Potential plus-plus fastball; projectable

Cons: Unrefined secondary pitches; still learning how to pitch

Best Case Scenario: Top of the rotation flamethrower

Realistic Scenario: Impressive young arm that doesn�t pan out

ETA: 2012

#18 - RHP Tommy Hunter | DoB: 07/03/86 | 6' 3", 255 lb.

Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round (54th overall)

46.1 IP, 3-2, 4.27 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 20 K, 16 BB (Frisco)

Pros: Solid arsenal; durable

Cons: Unspectacular pure stuff; not very projectable

Best Case Scenario: Durable back of the rotation starter

Realistic Scenario: Middle reliever

ETA: Summer 2009

#19 - RHP Thomas Diamond | DoB: 04/06/83 | 6' 3", 230 lb.

Acquired via: 2004 MLB Draft, 1st Round (10th overall)

32.2 IP, 2-1, 5.51 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 31 K, 23 BB (Frisco)

Pros: Solid fastball/change-up combo; tenacious

Cons: Coming off Tommy John surgery; inconsistent secondary offerings

Best Case Scenario: Middle of the rotation horse

Realistic Scenario: Middle-to-late inning reliever

ETA: Spring 2009

#20 - RHP Omar Poveda | DoB: 09/28/87 | 6' 4", 200 lb.

Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2004)

30.1 IP, 0-1, 5.04 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 38 K, 15 BB (Bakersfield)

Pros: Strike-thrower with a potential plus change-up

Cons: Inconsistent command; some minor injury issues

Best Case Scenario: Middle of the rotation starter

Realistic Scenario: Up and down starter that lacks the consistency to stay on the 25-man roster

ETA: 2011

#21 - RHP Fabio Castillo | DoB: 02/19/89 | 6' 1", 190 lb.

Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2005)

57.1 IP, 0-3, 5.34 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 46 K, 23 BB (Clinton)

Pros: Projectable; nasty movement on pitches

Cons: Still quite raw; some command issues

Best Case Scenario: Middle of the rotation inning-eating horse

Realistic Scenario: Moves to the bullpen

ETA: 2012

#22 - OF/C Cristian Santana | DoB: 06/18/89 | 6' 0", 175 lb.

Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2005)

133 AB, .211/.293/.383, 6 HR, 11 BB, 60 K, 3 SB (Clinton)

Pros: Excellent raw power; athletic

Cons: Poor plate discipline; raw

Best Case Scenario: Above-average Major League hitter; solid defensive outfielder

Realistic Scenario: Flameout

ETA: 2012

#23 - LHP Martin Perez | DoB: 04/04/91 | 6' 0", 165 lb.

Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2007)

9.0 IP, 0-1, 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 8 K, 3 BB (Spokane)

Pros: Three pitches with above-average potential; just turned 17

Cons: Very young; unknown

Best Case Scenario: Middle of the rotation pitcher

Realistic Scenario: No clue

ETA: 2013

#24 - RHP Warner Madrigal | DoB: 03/21/84 | 6' 0", 200 lb.

Acquired via: Minor league free agency (11/18/07)

18.1 IP, 0-0, 4.42 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 22 K, 7 BB (Oklahoma)

Pros: Plus fastball; closer�s mentality

Cons: Inconsistent command; average secondary offerings

Best Case Scenario: Closer at the Major League level

Realistic Scenario: Set-up reliever

ETA: Fall 2008

#25 - RHP Kennil Gomez | DoB: 04/08/88 | 6' 3", 170 lb.

Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2006)

70 IP, 8-2, 2.83 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 55 K, 16 BB (Clinton)

Pros: Fastball command; makings of a plus curve

Cons: Inconsistent change-up; still somewhat raw

Best Case Scenario: Middle of the rotation starter

Realistic Scenario: Back of the rotation starter/AAAA arm

ETA: 2012

Comments

[Hull Fan]

Does the lack of hitters worry anyone else? I love the pitching depth but man I wonder about 3B, and long term OF players.





As for the ranking...no Pimentel? Vallejo? or Lemon?





Damn that does say something about our minor league depth. Also not really all that high on Santana. He would have been left off my list.

[Len Magsamen]

Joey and Jason,





Great job of researching and ranking our prospects. Times have changed for us Ranger Fans. Let's enjoy it as JD and team build our next contender.





I'm not quite as generous with talent potential vs results or ML readiness as you guys are. Here's my QUICK rankings





#1 - RHP Neftali Feliz

#2 - 1B Chris Davis

#3 - RHP Eric Hurley

#4 � LHP Matt Harrison

#5 - SS Elvis Andrus

#6 - C Taylor Teagarden

#7 - DH/C Max Ramirez

#8 � 1B Justin Smoak

#9 - LHP Kasey Kiker

#10 - OF Engel Beltre

#11 - RHP Michael Main

#12 - RHP Blake Beavan

#13 - OF Julio Borbon

#14 - LHP Neil Ramirez

#15 - 2B German Duran

#16 - OF/1B John Mayberry

#17 - RHP Wilmer Font

#18 - RHP Tommy Hunter

#19 - RHP Thomas Diamond

#20 � RHP Fabio Castillo

#21 - RHP Omar Poveda

#22 - LHP Martin Perez

#23 - OF/C Cristian Santana

#24 - RHP Warner Madrigal

#25 - RHP Kennil Gomez





Smoak has tremendous talent, but until he puts up numbers on the farm, I can't rank him higher than #8.





Harrison is close to ML ready.





Main over Beavan at this time. Blake has to put up numbers first.





Martin Perez was widely reported as the best pitching prospect on the international field last year. Scouting reports raved about him and his early (albeit small sample) results are impressive.





This is fun. Again, great job.





Len in San Antonio

[t ball]

A great read guys, thanks. It's just amazing to think about where this system was two years ago. You would not even bother with an ETA for the 25th guy in the system at that point...





I really want to see Beltre draw a few walks this summer; that stat has gone in the wrong direction since the trade.

[Brilliant « Dallas Sport]

[...] of the great farm systems in all of the Minor Leagues .� Congratulations.� The Good Guys over at Baseball Time in Arlington have made a listin dedication to his brilliance.� Luminous.� Genus.� Guinnesses.� Ya [...]

[Jason Parks]

Kiker: I think he is going to require two more full seasons in the minors in order to refine his secondary pitches. It could easily be the Fall of '10 or perhaps even sooner. We were very conservative with the ETAs for the young kids.





The correct DOB for Font is 5/24/1990.

[Joey Matschulat]

Data entry error has been corrected for Font. My deepest apologies - I hate screwing things like that up. I had gone to MILB and Baseball Cube and neither site had his birthday/height/weight available, so I glossed over it and intended to come back to it later. Unfortunately, I forgot.





Font's height and weight have been corrected, as well - per Jason Cole of Scout.com, he's 6' 4", 210, but Parks says he's closer to 235. I'll take the latter's word for it.





Thanks to Doug from the NMLR for correcting that Feliz's work has been in Clinton, not Spokane - no idea why I typed that. Hopefully that's the last of the errors.

[Joey Matschulat]

Regarding third base, Hull Fan, I would consider Michael Young as the most probable third baseman of the future.





Vallejo and Lemon were right on the cusp, as was Pimentel (albeit a little further back). Second-rounder Robbie Ross was in the mix as well, though his signability seems a bit more worrisome than Smoak's. That only played a marginal role, however; he likely still would not have cracked our top 25 even if he were a lock to sign quickly.





Regarding Santana, Jason's comments on his "Realistic Scenario" seem to be generating a fair bit of controversy. Understandable, given the amount of talent he possesses, but the reality of the matter is that a huge share of those raw, toolsy Latin American teenagers never pan out. Most are lucky to ever make it to AAA. I hope as much as everybody else that he evolves into a superstar-caliber player, but the odds are inherently stacked against him. And that plate discipline is troubling.





Len and t ball, thanks for the kind remarks. They are appreciated by Jason and myself more than you will ever know. This was an immense undertaking that had been in the works for many months (although with zero progress, I might add), but never would have been completed without Jason's help and urging.





This farm system is remarkably polarizing. And you've gotta love it.

[Jon]

This is some seriously great stuff, Joey & Jason. You guys have outdone yourselves.





Just a couple thoughts: Thomas Diamond down all the way at #19? He may be coming off TJ, but I'd have thought he'd rank at about 12 or 13, myself. Oh, and like Hull Fan says, I'm not sure Cristian Santana would have made my list either. Not that I don't think he has talent, but he seems to be very, very raw at this stage.





Speaking of someone who's kind of dissapointed this year, how about Johnny Wittleman? He's not putting up very impressive numbers in Bakersfield this year, so I doubt he come close to making your list, but what do you and Jason think of him?

[tricer]

Outstanding job guys.

[Silv]

Great job fellas - the Rangers system has come leaps and bounds from where it was two years ago. A little more seasoning and it'll start producing like superstar systems akin to the Dodgers.

[bushe]

Great list fellas. Can see JPs influence as the little leaguers creep in a little higher than my bias. Really good work.

[Rangers fall to ‘Stro&#8]

[...] blog entry for a�required reading alert:�Joey Matschulat and Jason Parks have put�together their top 25 Rangers prospect rankings�over at Baseball Time in Arlington, and they have done a�simply awesome job.�I�won’t [...]

[snowcourt]

Really cool stuff!!! Seems hard to project the true "best case" for players with this much ability, and alot of them are so young that they could become a totally different kind of player by the time they reach the majors (for the better I hope), considering how many of our highly regarded young pitchers you listed as middle rotation guys, I think the Rangers higher ups thought they could have a better ceiling that that. But I was nice to see a more realistic "worst case" on players, considering alot of top prospects in the past never get out of the minors. Can't wait for a revised ranking next year and compare how all these studs fared!

[Brian Thomas]

Is that DOB correct for Wilmer? I thought he was younger than that.





2nd question: Why do you think Kiker's ETA won't be till 2011?





Great work fellas. It was especially cool to be reminded when all the Latin FAs were signed. They tend to run together for me.