Texas Trade Wind Anemometer: The Gerald Laird Saga
Joey Matschulat
General manager Jon Daniels (pictured above) will be praying for a Christmas miracle at next week's winter meetings.I ask the following not so much out of displeasure or disappointment as out of incredulity: how exactly did MiLB.com arrive at the conclusion that Justin Smoak isn't one of the 50 best prospects in baseball, but Cincinnati's Yonder Alonso -- who has been regarded almost universally as a lesser talent than Smoak, both pre- and post-draft -- is among the top 35 in the game? Did Alonso's dashingly good looks put him over the top or something?
● From Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels: "We're certainly conscious of all our expenditures. We're going to look at all the options to improve our club. But, in a good baseball trade, some of the players we might receive in return might look [like a payroll-trimming deal]. For the most part, we've been focusing on players who fit with our long-range plans. Most of those are younger players."
Speaking specifically of the upcoming winter meetings (thanks to Jamey Newberg for the clarification), Daniels said, "We've touched base with everybody, and have had more extensive dialogue with some clubs. We have a good handle on our options. We have a sense of the type of deals we can move on. We've had second and third conversations and followup conversations with clubs. There's a potential for something to happen" (Evan Grant, Dallas Morning News; T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
● In addition to the Tigers, the Reds are also beginning to express renewed interest in catcher Gerald Laird; among the young Cincinnati pitchers that could entice the Rangers are starting pitchers Homer Bailey and Darryl Thompson and relievers Carlos Fisher, Robert Manual, Joshua Roenicke and Pedro Viola; no deals appear to be imminent, however (Sullivan)
[We've previously talked about Bailey at length in this space (see here), so there's no real need to rehash all of that; the whispers with regard to his purported "uncoachability" persist, however. Roenicke, a hard-throwing UCLA product reputedly armed with a power mid-90s fastball, a high-80s cutter equipped with so much late movement that one minor league manager whose club faced the 26-year-old described it as a splitter, and the confidence required to excel in a late-inning role could invoke serious interest from the Rangers if they're unwilling to take their chances with Bailey.
Of course, there's no way of knowing if he's even available for Laird -- yet.]
● The Tigers have become "more aggressive" this week in their pursuit of Laird, according to one industry official with knowledge of the negotiations (Jon Paul Morosi, Detroit Free Press)
● Texas is not "actively involved" with Japanese free-agent right-handers Kenshin Kawakami and Koji Uehara (Grant)
[That's probably for the best.]
● Industry publication Baseball America has deemed Justin Smoak and Julio Borbon the ninth- and 13th-best prospects in the 2008 Arizona Fall League, respectively (Kary Booher, Baseball America)
[Smoak's 149 OPS+ in 91 at-bats and Borbon's 101 OPS+ in 87 at-bats thoroughly obliterated the putrid low-30s OPS+ totals compiled by Chad Tracy and Johnny Whittleman; placing a great deal of stock in AFL performances is just as silly as placing a great deal of stock in lower-level minor league statistics (it simply doesn't work on a constructive level), but it's good news for Borbon and Smoak regardless.
Scouts were reportedly impressed by Smoak's slick glovework at first base, which was amplified by the cool, calm and laid-back demeanor that enabled him to retain his focus on bang-bang plays around the bag.]
● The Rangers have signed 2000 first-round pick Joe Torres to a minor league deal (Matt Eddy, Baseball America)
[A high-pedigree southpaw whose professional career has been derailed by injuries and frequent bouts of phobia of the strike zone, the 26-year-old Torres just reached Double-A Birmingham in 2008 -- logging 50.1 innings in 59 relief appearances -- and fanned in excess of a batter per inning, but once again found himself hindered by the overwhelming quantity of free passes. Perhaps the Rangers believe they can convert all the talent normally concealed within a former 10th-overall pick into eventual Major League results, but all the numbers suggest the second coming of Bill White -- if not worse.]
● MLB Trade Rumors contributor Brendan Bianowicz has compiled Jon Daniels' complete trade history during his tenure as Rangers general manager, which can be viewed here (Tim Dierkes, MLB Trade Rumors)
[You know, I completely forgot that Randall Simon was once a RedHawk until just now.]
Reader Comments (4)
I suppose I could support moving Laird for a couple of minor leagers, but only if one is a Beltre-type prospect. This team needs more pitching right now. Today. I've already ranted earlier that I don't think we can make plans based on Holland/Feliz taking the place of Millwood/Padilla in 2010. Too many things can happen between now and then. I suppose that JD is looking everywhere he can for ML-ready pitching, but young, controllable pitching is the new currency in MLB, and its value is much higher today compared to 2-3 years ago (and even before that, too) when we were the ones trading it away.
I'm suffering from Red Sox envy right now. Look at their rotation. Their top five starters pitched 210, 181, 180, 174 and 167 innings for a total of 912 innings. This is the same team that is adding Tazawa, and is looking at adding a FA pitcher like Lowe, all while having guys like Buchholz, Masterson, and Bowden on the cusp of the majors. Actively looking to add talent and not content with what they have. Impressive.
Then look at Texas. Our top five starters went 171, 168, 151, 89, 84 - oh wait, the 84 innings was by Jamey Wright. I'll go ahead and use his number and we got 663 innings. I won't go into the difference in quality. Despite this our management somehow says it's willing to go to battle with what it has. Is everything JD says just posturing? He's actively trying to trade for valuable young, controllable pitching while overvaluing his own catchers. He's keeping Cat for some unknown reason, despite his negative value on the trade market and his occupying a roster spot which could be used on something useful - like a Rule 5 draft pick where we could bring in a reliever (say 2005 2nd rounder Brent Cox of the NYY or TB's Chris Mason). Surely $50k will fit in the budget. JD has alienated many and is irritating others (at least this fan) by accomplishing little in the way of upgrading the rotation for 2009, similar to what he did in 2008.
I continue to support the rebuilding strategy, but I'm growing impatient with what I percieve to be JD overplaying his hand. Guess next week will go a long ways toward telling the tale. Maybe I'll feel better then.
Good point on the "new currency," Briant.
This (double) post of mine is certainly differing, but not in reaction to yours. I think JD is sincere with regard to not knowing, not expecting, b/c we have about 30 million paying for the players we can't do without, and about 40-million dollars tied up in players we could trade without hurting-- in fact even helping the team: maybe leading to 10 fewer wins this year, but increasingly more wins in the successive years, thanks to not having traded away our high-upside unknown youth, in addition to having gotten them critical development time this year.
I mostly agree w/ Robert in the prior thread: we can lose this year of development, and risk "the window of opportunity" ever opening (by trying to win too soon), or we can congratulate the Angels already on their '09 season, and finish developing this team to start beating their aging over-priced roster in '10, with the window opening ever wider in '11 and '12.
But to tweak what Robert said in relation to the comparison of trading for Buchholz vs. trading for Bailey, if we can add to a deal even more of our valuable extras like Laird, i.e. Blalock, Byrd, Padilla, even Murphy, to gain ourselves the choice between 2 Bailey-types or one Buchholz-type-- or the choice between 2 high-ceiling relievers vs. one high-ceiling starter, I think we gather as many of those pieces as possible (No Saltys or Povedas, but truly extra players whose ceilings we know, as Robert argues) and go for the single highest-ceiling young, controllable starter available. After that, if we still have some of those pieces left, great: then go for the lesser-likely high-ceiling unknown arms (and very young 3B and OF prospects).
And Briant, if JD does pull off such trades, and saves even half of that 40-million, you've gotta wonder if it wasn't posturing, but a "Wait-and-see" whispering bug that he had Mike Maddux put in Ben Sheets ear (in the hopes of agreeing to a contract of, say, 2-years-guaranteed, w/3 years of vesting-options). How's that sound for Christmas?
By the way, Jason, (back from my daydream), how does SF's Sanchez profile in comparison with Buchholz and the Arms of Cincinnati?
Good pitching is not the "new" currency. It has always been the currency.
Briant doesn't just mean good pitching, but good pitching prospects. They used to remain fairly anonymous. Perhaps the internet... Perhaps e-bay sales of rookie cards has driven it, but there's now a market, moved along by greater public awareness of top prospects before they ever earn a September call-up.
Once their name is known, it's harder to trade them without getting criticized, and easier to trade away popular veterans for them without getting criticized. The last thing I want to do is de-humanize baseball players-- especially on St. Nicholas' Day-- but all-in-all, Minor leaguers have become a much more valuable "commodity" for both trade and ability to sell tickets. They now do for fan bases what only successful veterans did in the past. Instead of deciding how to sell tickets-- by getting the best players or by getting the best-known players-- GMs and finally owners are finding it no dilemma at all, because even the cheaper future-best players are known. The trouble now is that the demand for them is at a premium, so they're really not that much cheaper unless you "grow your own." They are the new standard of baseball currency.