The Dustin Pedroia Contract Extension
A quick head-to-head look at the multi-year contract extensions doled out by the Texas Rangers to second baseman Ian Kinsler this past February and by the Boston Red Sox to second baseman Dustin Pedroia earlier today:
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[Service time and age calculations both projected as of Opening Day (April 6th) 2009. Pedroia's pre-extension 2008 salary of $457,000 is obviously not included in the calculation of the total value of his new contract.]
They're both fine deals for player and team alike, with Pedroia sacrificing at least two and possibly three prime earning years for guaranteed financial security now (probably not the worst idea in light of the tumultuous financial times we live in). Just one guaranteed year of free-agent eligibility was bought out by the Rangers when they inked Kinsler to his own lucrative five-year contract; the last-year options attached to both deals are virtually identical.
Pedroia compensates for his disadvantage in the home run and walk departments relative to Kinsler with a higher batting average (which fuels a higher on-base percentage), more doubles, fewer strikeouts and superb defense that ultimately gives him a decent edge over his Texas counterpart in terms of total value; that said, Kinsler's avoidance of another fluky injury -- he was a legitimate 2008 American League Most Valuable Player candidate at the All-Star Break -- and a return to respectability glove-wise would measurably close the gap.
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Reader Comments (3)
No doubt about it, Kinsler is a stud. For me, only his health held him back from being the AL MVP last season. If we can get him to play 150+ games he's going to put up incredible offensive numbers.
And Kinsler's defensive problems in 2008 weren't for a lack of innate physical ability -- he has all the tools to be a superb defensive second baseman (and in fact appeared to improve in that respect closer to the end of his injury-shortened campaign). A return to average or above-average territory isn't just possible, it should be expected.
Pedroia was not even close to being a top-15 player in the AL in terms of Chris Dial's OPD (Offense Plus Defense) at the ASB -- only an absolutely ridiculous second half propelled him to the MVP.
By the way, after a little playing around with Sky Kalkman's free-agent valuation method from Beyond the Box Score (see here), I came up with a figure of $17.5 million in terms of what Kinsler's projected production in 2009 should be worth (the only difference being that I employed a 5-4-3 weighted average method with his batting wins, as opposed to simply "eye-balling" it -- if I had, however, I would have come up with an even higher number). I might give this a more scientific crack soon with the entire Rangers roster, but we'll see.
Pedroia and Kinsler comparisons will abound for many years to come (albeit Kinsler has to stay healthy) and that's a good thing. Both deals are incredibly team friendly and I hope that they continue to be productive for both clubs. With the Ryan Howards of this world getting 10 million in their second year in the league, locking up young studs at an affordable price is the key to keeping payroll manageable and a core group of players together.