Texas Trade Wind Anemometer: Minor Movements
Joey Matschulat
One of many exciting options at the hot corner for the Texas Rangers going into the 2009 season. - Adam Baker/Flickr.comAs the so-called "Big Three" automakers stubbornly persist in their incessant lobbying for a federal bailout, Ford CEO Alan Mulally has daringly consented to an unprecedented pay cut that would slash his annual salary to $1 if the financially struggling motor company is forced to accept any government loan money, which obviously makes for great headline fodder and a fun little factoid for all branches of the media to stuff into their latest reports on the officially recessed economy.
There's just one problem: Mulally's executive compensation in 2007 was comprised of a $2 million base salary (the component which will ostensibly be cut to $1, should market conditions further deteriorate), bonuses amounting to more than $4 million, stock options and awards amounting to more than $11 million, and miscellaneous compensation amounting to more than $1.4 million, altogether adding up to a very tidy $21,670,674. Think that those stock options and such are simply going to vanish? Think again.
This isn't exactly the magnitude of pay cut that it's being made out to be.
● Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels on the club's Winter Meetings preparations: "I don't know how much we're going to do, but a lot of it depends on what other clubs want to do. We've had quite a bit of dialogue with other clubs, but we're not close to any one player. I still don't see us being really active in the free-agent market. We're in touch with a lot of people we might be interested in if things change, but we haven't extended any offers at this point" (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
[Additionally, Hank Blalock, Marlon Byrd or Gerald Laird could be traded to enhance the Rangers' maneuverability in a free-agent market that they otherwise won't be able to make much headway in. Frank Catalanotto also remains available, but...]
● League-wide interest in Catalanotto's services has been "minimal" since last spring (Evan Grant, Dallas Morning News)
[...yeah. "Catalanotto" and "superfluous" are essentially synonymous terms at this point, and while Frank would likely still make a fine pinch-hitter somewhere, the Rangers appear unable to even give him away, much less trade him for something of value. Not good.]
● The Braves, understandably fed up with the Jake Peavy stalemate, have addressed their starting rotation deficiencies by acquiring right-hander Javier Vazquez and southpaw reliever Boone Logan from the White Sox in exchange for a four-player package consisting of infielder Brent Lillibridge, High-A Myrtle Beach catcher Tyler Flowers and two low minor leaguers, independently confirmed as being third baseman Jon Gilmore and left-hander Santos Rodriguez (Ken Rosenthal, FOXSports.com)
[A fine deal for Atlanta general manager Frank Wren, who brings a reliable, quality innings-eater back to the National League and relinquishes only a middling package of talent. This is not at all comparable to the Yankees' fleecing of Chicago general manager Kenny Williams in the Nick Swisher deal, because Flowers is a pretty nice young backstop in his own right, but the Braves are clearly not positioned to lose this trade.
One immediately has to wonder whether the collapse of this domino pushes the Padres closer to revisiting the idea of dealing Peavy to an American League club; the Rangers' offer was promptly rebuffed when Jake invoked his no-trade clause some time back, but the allure of a heavily backloaded contract extension with added enticements would no doubt give Peavy reason to carefully reconsider his stance. That said, Texas may not be in a position to offer such an extension at this time (particularly in light of the economic uncertainty that portends to overshadow the apex of baseball's hot stove season next week in Las Vegas) or willing to give up the talent San Diego would demand in such a blockbuster deal, so it's still a far-fetched proposition.]
● The Red Sox have offered arbitration to captain Jason Varitek, but the 36-year-old backstop is not expected to accept his employer's offer (Amalie Benjamin, Boston Globe)
[Accept or decline, I can't envision the outcome of this situation having much impact on trade negotiations between Boston and Texas. Retaining Varitek would patch a hole for 2009, but he's not getting any younger, and there's still a legitimate need for a long-term solution behind the plate that won't be satisfied solely by his retention.
With regard to the Rangers' catching surplus, Jon Daniels has said the following: "We're OK bringing back all four guys if it comes down to that and the right deal is not out there" -- which is, of course, the right thing to say leverage-wise.]
● Texas will look to provide cheap depth behind presumed Opening Day third baseman Travis Metcalf at the hot corner, perhaps through Morgan Ensberg or Mike Lamb (Sullivan)
[Here's a fun game: add together Ensberg's and Lamb's OPS+ totals for the 2008 season and see what number you come up with! Horrifyingly enough, the number that results is a 97, with Ensberg's 34 OPS+ being resoundingly dwarfed by Lamb's far superior (but still atrocious) 63 OPS+. This is what you call "scraping the bottom of the barrel."
Interestingly, both ex-Astros aren't terribly far removed from above-average offensive campaigns in the National League. But man, once they tumbled off that cliff, there was certainly no shrubbery to brace their respective falls.]
● Free-agent third baseman Casey Blake is thought to be seeking a three-year deal, and the Dodgers and Twins are the front-runners for his services right now (Ken Rosenthal, FOXSports.com)
[For what it's worth, I never believed the Rangers -- who were rumored to be hot and heavy for the 35-year-old slugger earlier this off-season -- had even a remote chance at signing Blake.]
● Catcher Max Ramirez (Tiburones de La Guaira -- Venezuela) is hitting .273/.365/.527 in 29 games; catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Leones del Escogido -- Dominican Republic) is hitting .407/.556/.963 in eight games; outfielder Nelson Cruz (Gigantes del Cibao -- Dominican Republic) is hitting .368/.430/.765 in 18 games (MiLB.com)
[Scorching. Of course, these numbers should obviously be taken with a huge grain of salt; case in point, Richard Hidalgo (Navegantes del Magallanes -- Venezuela) is hitting a cool .355/.430/.572 in 40 games. But good performances abroad are obviously far preferable to the obvious alternative of bad performances, which can unfairly inflict damage upon a player's trade value.
The Dominican Winter League All-Star Game will be played on Sunday, December 7th.]
Reader Comments (11)
Is there any worse return for 4 million dollars in all of baseball than what the Rangers getting out of Frank Cat?
Another thought... I think Texas could do a lot worse than Morgan Ensberg, especially if they can get him on a cheap, short deal. Even when he wasn't hitting in Houston, he always showed the uncanny ability to get 1-2 walks every single game, and then there's also that great power he has. He might be worth bringing in as insurance in case Metcalf can't cut it as the everyday 3B.
For a player like Ensberg, I think you're talking about a Spring Training invite. I hate to give him sort of guaranteed money or worse yet, a spot on the 40 man roster.
Hmmm... I wasn't thinking about the 40 man roster. But wouldn't he (or another 3B) just take the place of the departed Vasquez? In other words, aren't they planning on carrying 3 third basemen on the 40 this season? (Blalock, Metcalf, and x)
In terms of bang for the buck, I suppose there's always Barry Zito as the preeminent example of bad resource utilization. For their $14.5M in 2008, the Giants received a whopping -1.0 VORP from Zito. Of course, Catalanotto notched a very healthy -4.4 VORP, so there you go.
The problems with Ensberg are many -- his walk rates have gone in the toilet, he's hit fewer homers per fly ball every year since 2005 (his isolated power and slugging percentage totals have similarly declined every year during that span) and he's suddenly 33 years old. Quite the collapse for a legitimate 2005 NL MVP contender that was an integral component of the Astros' failed World Series bid, and while it's certainly possible that he can be salvaged, it seems far more likely to me that his quick fade into obscurity is irreversible.
The only upside about Ensberg is that he would come on a minor league deal and wouldn't require a 40-man roster spot unless he made the Opening Day roster (no way any team hands him a guaranteed big league contract after that pathetic '08 campaign), but frankly I'd rather see Texas roll with Metcalf out of the gates -- and I'm no great fan of Metcalf -- than fool around with the likes of Ensberg or Lamb. I don't have access to plus/minus defensive stats at the moment, but I can't imagine either would possess a defensive edge over Metcalf either.
JDolla the problem with Ensberg is the fact he can only play the corners. Thus he doesn't really replace Vazquez who can play the entire infield. And also don't forget, we're technically packing 3 1B/DH's on the 40 man with Chris Davis, Hank Blalock, and Frank Catalanotto.That digs a whole for other positions. Not only on the 40, but the 25 man active roster too.
Okay, thanks to Robert's links on the Milton Bradley thread, I can finish my trade proposals for you to fire away at.
First, let me point out that we look better off with a platoon of Metcalf and Duran at 3B than I ever realized before tonight. Metcalf would be the dominant 3B, batting vs. righties, and Duran the defensive replacement, and the better hitter vs. lefties. Even though they're both right-handed, Metcalf has consistently maintained reverse splits. In fact, throughout Minors and Majors, each has put up extreme "wide" splits.
Metcalf, over 2 seasons in Arlington, 121 at-bats vs. righties, has an .835 OPS & .280 batting avg. but in 96 at-bats vs. lefties he has a .695 OPS and a .224avg.
Duran, in 73 at-bats last year vs. righties only had a .532 OPS, and a .192 avg, but
conversely, in 70 at-bats vs. lefties he had a .713 OPS and a .271 avg!
Put Metcalf's 121 at-bats vs. righties together with Duran's 70 vs lefties and you have an excellent glove 1/3 of the time and a glove comparable with most alternatives 2/3 of the time,combining for a .789 OPS and a .277 batting avg.
I'll take it! (Can somebody run a comp to one of the available FA's?)
Ergo, I target no MLB-ready 3rd basemen in the below proposals, but 2 prospects (along w/ all the high-ceiling young, controllable pitchers we can snag.) The following would cut about 26 million off our payroll, and make us a much better team. If we used that savings to pay the first 2 years of Ben Sheets' 2-yr guaranteed deal with 3 years of vesting options, it would make us a very-much-better team!
Rather than any long-winded or per-player explanations, suffice it to say that I based the following proposals on the other teams' stated needs. The question, of course, is whether they need them badly enough to pay what is proposed (in players or salaries taken on).
Laird, Millwood, Mendoza and Arias to DETROIT for Bonderman
Byrd, Padilla, Benoit, (and Cat if they want; they do need) to CINCINNATI for Bailey & Valaika
Blalock and CJ Wilson to SAN FRANCISCO for Sanchez
D. Murphy and Whittleman to the CHICAGO CUBS for Vitters
We let Golson and Borbon compete for the CF job, have Boggs as our 4th OF, (and Cat as a 5th if Cincinnati doesn't want him. In this scenario, we could actually use him on occasion, though, especially if Boggs beats out the other 2, and we keep them in AAA & AA.
MaxRam and Salty share DH/back-up C/back-up 1B. All three of our young catchers get consistent at-bats.
Okay, that's my winter meetings swap-meet list.
Fire away!
Michael,
Those are certainly so excellent ideas but I have the following concerns:
Detroit is taking on incredible money in that deal. Also, Texas would be dealing 2 starters (3 if you think Mendoza can start somewhere else, and 4 if you believe as I do that Arias can be a productive everyday player when healthy). If that's the case, then it would make more sense for both teams for Texas to play some of Millwood's salary next season, and get back a few marginal Tiger prospects (which outside of Porcello, could be all of them).
As for Cincy, I think you're talking about the same thing when trying to send them Padilla. They're more likely going to want to then send us back Bronson Arroyo, in a trade which I think would be a negative one for us. You have to balance Padilla's superior stuff, with Arroyo's consistency. Also, I thought for whatever reason Padilla was in the final year of his contract. If that's the case I keep him in Arlington to work towards type A or B status, then offer him arb next season depending on how he preformed in his contract year. If he gives the kind of effort he did in Philly during his walk year, he'll be very good for us this year, and turn down arb after the season.
Blalock and Wilson to San Fran. for Sanchez is also dicey. Right now Blalock and Wilson's value is at an all time low, and I'm not sure the Giants would consider both of them for any sort of real prospect/player unless the Giants go on some mad spending spree as they've recently been named a dark horse to sign CC.
Finally the Cubs trade is probably the hardest to figure out. While I think the Cubs would deal Vitters since they are always seemingly in win-now mode and they have Aramis cemented at third, it will likely take a much better player than Murphy who's really little more than a fringe starter aside from his intangibles (hustle, ect.). Whittleman is probably a low B rated prospect for most any other teams and certainly a downgrade from Vitters, so essentially the Cubs would be dealing arguably their top prospect for a worse version of that prospect and a fringe corner outfielder. Now you substitute Vitters for Pie and they might talk since they seemed to have soured on him after they rushed him. They apparently didn't learn after the Corey Patterson debacle.
I hope I wasn't too cruel. I really do like where you were headed with most of those trades since a couple of those names are never connected to Rangers via rumor, so it was nice to read those. (Vitters, Valaika)
A couple of thoughts about your very creative ideas, Michael.
Starting with Detroit, it looks like they are going to get Wilson to play SS, and they already have Polanco - so I don't see them needing Arias. It is rumored again today that they are still looking at Laird, but I would expect that deal wouldn't turn into a blockbuster, and even if it did, I agree with Robert that including Millwood would be a wash for them regarding salary (they are saddled with a bunch of ridiculously large salaries), and I would expect that Bonderman would be viewed as the better pitcher right now. I've been looking at their roster, and except for the albatross (Willis) and albatross Jr. (Robertson) - both guys that JD will surely reject because of salary more than suckiness - I don't see a whole lot there that's major league ready pitching & also available. The only guy I could peg as a possibility is the swingman Miner, yet I don't know if Detroit will be willing to swap a VERY cheap guy who was really valuable for them last year for a poor hitting catcher with a 3 million salary.
Regarding Cincy, I doubt that they'd give up on Bailey now when his value is so low, UNLESS they can get a really good prospect for him. For instance, they MIGHT take Salty for Bailey - but then do you want to spend that big chip for someone like Bailey? I doubt that Cincy will move Bailey, but will allow him the chance to get his act back together.
Regarding Sanchez, he'd be a great get, and Newberg pointed out today that Florida might be trying to swing a Cantu for Sanchez deal, which would give them an extra pitcher to trade for a catcher or for some hitting. I agree with Robert, though, that to get Sanchez you'd probably have to throw in one of the pitching chips.
From everything I've read, Vitters would be part of the Peavy deal, if he goes to Chicago. Seeing that Atlanta just traded to get Vasquez, I would expect that they would not be in the Peavy sweepstakes any longer, and that makes me think that Chi will get him.
Would be nice to get Vitters, though.
I think that Laird will be traded next week if anything reasonable is offered for him. After that, I'm not sure we can expect any other big trades - since all the other available guys all have bad contracts + low value due to injuries or poor seasons (Blalock, Millwood, Padilla, Benoit, Cat). The other big question will be if Salty goes - and I guess that all depends on what they can get for him. I suppose with Laird gone, that gives Texas the leverage that they don't have to trade Salty right now, and so that would possibly make his value go up a little.
Anyway, I always like exchanging ideas with you, Michael - keep throwing them out there!
Alright. Thank you both. That's what I mean by "fire away." Great feedback helps me remove rose-colored glasses.
This food for thought might be too stale, but with Cincy needing a righty bat who can play some CF and a vet C, the Byrd Laird offer (plus Mendoza, whom they might view as the next resurrectible SP from Arlington?) just makes too much sense for Bailey.
Larry Dobrow on sportsline doesn't think they should trade Bailey "... Unless Jon Daniels comes calling..." He thinks Cincy is just a few smart acquisitions (i.e. a Byrd, a Laird and a bullpen arm or 2?) from being the TB Rays of '09!
I'd be curious to hear what others of you think about Bailey's value. I know he was a #1, but he was really bad last year across the board, and seems to have not only peaked, but even regressed since his signing. I would think that Laird + Byrd would be enough to get him, if Cincy like Laird (I've read that some teams have pretty much "just said no" to Laird). But maybe I'm valuing Byrd too high. Like I said above, seems like Cincy would be loathe to move Bailey now, as it would surely entail selling low with him, and I would imagine that they'd only do so if (1) they were offered a really good prospect in return - someone the caliber of Feliz, or (2) every other trade/FA option were exhausted and they were pushed into the corner. With (1) - I don't think the Rangers would do that, and with (2) it's probably too early for any desperation moves. I just read Sullivan, and he suggested that Texas might be trying to get Miner or Lambert from Detroit for Laird - either of those guys would be great, in my opinion. Then let the bidding war for Salty begin!
I am with you on one thing, Michael. Wouldn't it be great if Texas could jettison Millwood, Blalock & Cat? That would free up enough money to make a serious offer for Sheets. I totally agree that Max/Salty could hold down the fort at DH until Smoak makes it up here (when Davis switches to DH), and Lord knows I think Millwood is overrated. As for Cat - he's a great lefty pinch hitter, and he can play some 1B and 2B in a pinch - but this team has absolutely no use for him. That was a very dumb contract.