BBTiA Scouting Series: Marcus Lemon
Jason Parks
Marcus Lemon - James Venes/Scout.comWhen deciding whether or not to go forward with this series, I relied heavily on those already in the scouting world for advice. Scouting players is a very difficult challenge, and despite my egotistical belief in my own ability, I'm not foolish enough to think my analysis is on par with that of a professional scout.
However, I have been able to see most of the players in the Rangers' system, and I have had the opportunity to discuss the abilities of those players with people in the business of talent evaluation. It is from those discussions and from my own observations that these scouting reports were crafted. Scouting isn't an exact science, and I'm sure there will be differing opinions on the grades, but I'm confident that all of the analysis presented here will be completely objective and accurate to the best of my ability.
Former Baseball HQ prospect writer and current member of the St. Louis Cardinals scouting department, Deric McKamey, on how players are graded by scouts:
Scouts grade players based on a 20-to-80 (or 2-8) scale, with 80 representing the highest achievable grade. The grade of 50 is considered major league average. Position players are graded in five categories (hitting, power, speed, throwing, and fielding), which are typically referred to as the "five tools." Players will also receive grades for base running, arm accuracy, baseball instinct, and aggressiveness, though they do not account as much for the final grade.
An amateur player or minor league player will receive two grades for each tool: a present grade and a future grade, based on how they are expected to perform in the majors. Future grades are added and then divided by the number of grades to determine their Overall Future Potential (OFP). A scout can then adjust a player’s OFP by 10 points based on the lesser categories and their gut instinct.
Overall Grades:
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Hitting Grades:
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Marcus Lemon's Grades:
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Conclusion: Lemon is a very solid player, but doesn't possess any plus tools. His greatest attributes are his off-the-chart make-up and his above-average plate discipline, but I don't think his pitch recognition is advanced enough to maintain his '08 contact rates at the higher levels, and he doesn't have much lift to his swing, limiting his power potential. Lemon has a bit of a batboy body and doesn't look to have the ability to add additional bulk to his frame. At this point, he looks to be a slasher type in the making, but still has a chance to hit 10 home runs at the major league level.
Lemon is the poster child for the scouting vs. stats evaluation argument. On paper, he looks to be a better offensive threat than he actually is. While Lemon grades out to have the ceiling of a major league regular, he has very little chance of becoming a regular with the Texas Rangers. His glove will play better at second base (Lemon was impressive at second base during the Fall Instructional League), but his offensive ceiling is probably a bit underwhelming for a starting second baseman in the American League.
Lemon's defensive versatility, slightly above-average speed, and ability to put the ball in play are skills that should make him a very valuable utility player at the major league level. If he reaches his offensive ceiling, he could be a starter.
Reader Comments (12)
Great stuff as always, Parks. This is really tremendous. The only problem you'll have is trying to keep these coming fast enough for your readers!
I've been looking forward to this series, nice read. The surprise here for me is the defensive grade, which I thought might be a little lower, at least presently. I think you've hit the nail on the head with Lemon being a poster child for the limitations of stats-only analysis.
Good stuff Jason, I'm looking forward to the rest of this series.
Lemon is certainly an interesting player - it seems you either love this guy for his stats and makeup, or you tend to dismiss him because his tools and ceiling just don't seem very impressive. I admittedly lean toward the latter of those two opinions, myself, but I'm also going to be keeping an eye on him this year as he climbs to the higher levels. I don't think he'll ever overtake Andrus or Vallejo in terms of talent, but he could make a good UT guy like mentioned, or possibly a decent trade add-on if all continues as expected.
to be 50-53, Vallejo must be around 55-58.
Rob: Vallejo's game is built around speed and defense. His OFP is heavily weighted by the plus grades in those categories, and as a result, his raw OFP would be higher than Lemon. However, OFP grades can be very misleading. Vallejo has a slightly better power projection, but his overall hitting ability isn't as good. Vallejo, despite having a higher raw OFP, doesn't actually profile any better than Lemon. He grades out as a major league regular, but because his score is so heavily influenced by his speed and defensive grades, his AOFP suggests he probably a better fit as a utility player because of his pedestrian hitting/power grades.
OFP grades are adjusted based on expected position at the major league level. Vallejo's glove/arm/speed are all plus skills that suggest he is a no-brainer major league regular. However, in the current offensive minded era, a plus defensive 2B that has below league average offensive skills does not profile as a major league regular.
I'll profile Vallejo in the next article so that we can discuss the process further.
On his current grades, does that mean thats what you would expect from him if you threw him in the majors in April?
Since Lemon is presumably athletic enough to handle all of the infield positions (though as you say, he profiles most realistically as a second baseman, but I presume he could handle shortstop in a pinch), do you foresee the Rangers giving him a little work in the outfield as well with the intent of grooming him as a supersub and enhancing his positional flexibility as a utility player? We did, after all, see the Rangers do something similar with German Duran in '08...
Groundingout: The present grades are based on the abilities of major leaguers.
Joey: Lemon is a versatile defensive player, but I'm not sure how his skill set would translate to the OF. He has good speed, but his infield arm is only average and his offensive capabilities would limit his value in the OF. That said, Lemon has the make-up and bloodlines to learn and produce at every position on the field. I personally don't feel his defensive tools would make him a plus defensive OF option off of the bench, but that doesn't mean the Rangers won't eventually attempt to widen the range of Lemon's versatility.
"I'll profile Vallejo in the next article so that we can discuss the process further."
Well, what are you waiting on? It is not like JD is giving us anything to talk about. :(
Thanks for your reply Jason.
Jason, I'm going to start a senior stars of senility fan club for your writing. Great job of bringing the scouting grading system out clearly, and the analysis you make on Lemon looks like a very sensible one, even possibly optimistic. Kudos.
E.
Thank you.
Thanks for the kind words. Vallejo scouting report coming out on Friday or Saturday. He was a tough one. Extremely high OFP grade.