Saturday Morning Rangers Notes: Rumors, Numbers & Audio
Don't expect to see Sammy Sosa (pictured) back with the Texas Rangers in 2009.Yes, the second part of the "Fixing Third Base" series is still forthcoming. It turns out that winter vacation really isn't much of a cure-all for chronic procrastination.
THE RUMOR MILL
● The newly reinforced Yankees are looking to trade two of Xavier Nady, Nick Swisher and Hideki Matsui, and the Rangers, along with the Angels, Athletics and Braves, are believed to be interested (Tracy Ringolsby, Rocky Mountain News)
[Matsui makes $13 million in 2009 (the last year of his four-year, $52 million contract) and wields a full no-trade clause, so suffice it to say he's not coming to Texas. Nady, a noted lefty masher, will probably bank around $5 million in his final year of salary arbitration, and Swisher may be beyond the Rangers' reach financially.]
● New York is now wavering on the idea of bringing Andy Pettitte back in 2009, and he could conceivably entertain the possibility of pitching for the Rangers or Astros (Bryan Hoch, MLB.com)
[Don't bet on it.]
● Future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson, a purported free-agent target of the Rangers, has inked a one-year, $8 million contract with the Giants (Ken Rosenthal, FOXSports.com)
[According to MLB.com's Chris Haft, the deal includes $2.5 million in performance bonuses and $2.5 million in awards bonuses. On a personal level, Johnson never evoked much more than tepid interest from me at best, though there's little doubting that he would have measurably improved the Rangers' 2009 on-the-field product.]
● Red Sox assistant general manager Allard Baird observed catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.364/.506/.848 in 66 at-bats with the Dominican Winter League's Tigres del Licey, though he hasn't recorded a plate appearance since December 19th) on his "worst defensive night in winter ball, though other scouts who watched him regularly thought he was fine behind the plate;" there is evidently some thought that the nature of the negotiations between superagent Scott Boras and Boston with regard to Mark Teixeira could further deflate the odds of the Red Sox bringing back Jason Varitek, another of Boras's clients (Nick Cafardo, Boston Globe (thanks to Eric Spray); Buster Olney, ESPN.com)
[Read into that however you like.]
● Former Rangers designated hitter Sammy Sosa is interested in resuming his major league career, but general manager Jon Daniels asserts that Texas isn't likely to go back down that road (Anthony Andro, Fort Worth Star-Telegram)
[One strongly suspects that Sosa is still capable of fashioning a .900 OPS against southpaws, but manager Ron Washington couldn't resist tossing 315 plate appearances in Sosa's direction against right-handers in 2007, with what could be considered disastrous results (.222/.267/.410) from a designated hitter. It's time to close the book on this ignominious chapter in Rangers history once and for all.]
FUN WITH WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT
We introduced the concept of wins above replacement in yesterday morning's lengthy exposition on Pat Burrell, and I hesitate to go too fast with this concept because I want to ensure that it is kept readily comprehensible, but really, this latest addition to FanGraphs' repertoire of statistical goodness is just too awesome to pass up:
[Click the picture for the full-sized report.]
What you're looking at here is the Rangers' 2008 Win Value team page, which gives you a pretty sturdy idea of which position players offered the most utility at the most affordable prices. To summarize: 'Batting' is represented by wRAA, or offensive runs above average (adjusted for home ballpark, but not for position), 'Fielding' is represented by defensive runs above average (using Ultimate Zone Rating), 'Replacement' accounts for the replacement level adjustment (20 runs are added for every 600 plate appearances accrued), and 'Positional' properly rewards or penalizes players based on their position in the field (see here for more details on Tom Tango's methodology), for league-average offensive production is obviously far more valuable coming from a shortstop than from a designated hitter.
Those four categories summed together comprise 'Value Runs,' or runs above replacement, which can then be converted into 'Value Wins,' or wins above replacement, by dividing by 10 (though the actual number can vary slightly based on the actual run environment, but going by the rule of 10 will usually get you pretty close to where you want to be). One win was worth approximately $4.5 million in terms of fair market value in 2008, which explains where the final column, 'Dollars,' is calculated from.
It's pretty easy to see why Ian Kinsler (3.9 wins), Josh Hamilton (3.8 wins) and Milton Bradley (3.7 wins) all merited serious consideration for the 2008 American League Most Valuable Player hardware; on a related note, Texas paid less than $1 million for $35 million of dollar value from Kinsler ($17.7 million) and Hamilton ($17.2 million), and the signing of Bradley ($16.9 million) was an unabashed success no matter which way you slice it.
If only we could say the same for Ben Broussard (-0.9 wins) and Frank Catalanotto (-1.1 wins).
FUN WITH MULTIMEDIA
Jon Daniels talked ten good minutes of baseball with local radio legend Norm Hitzges during KTCK 1310 AM The Ticket's seventh annual Whataburger Norm-A-Thon on Friday afternoon, and I'm proud to present that audio in this space (which includes an understandably vague response to Norm's inquiry regarding the Rangers' pursuit of Ben Sheets, though Daniels does confirm that the club has not yet tendered an offer):
[Direct link available here.]
EVERYTHING ELSE
The Twins have signed R.A. Dickey. The Hanshin Tigers have signed Kevin Mench.
According to NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman, Akinori Otsuka is planning to work out in front of all 30 major league teams in Arizona next month. All other things being equal, I can't fathom Otsuka opting for Texas over San Diego, but I wish him nothing but the best of luck either way.
Jeff Ziebrec of the Baltimore Sun points out that if the Rangers had not bombed their final three-game set of the 2000 season against the Athletics and if the Orioles had not swept their final three-game set against the Yankees, Baltimore would have nabbed the fifth-overall pick in the 2001 MLB First-Year Player Draft as opposed to Texas, and presumably would have had an unimpeded path to drafting Severna Park, Maryland native Mark Teixeira.
Of the 12 players that were selected immediately after Teixeira in that draft class, just four have ever reached the big leagues -- John Van Benschoten, Chris Burke, Casey Kotchman and Gabe Gross, none of whom have exactly set the baseball world alight. Baltimore selected former Florida State Seminole Chris Smith with their seventh-overall pick, a stout left-hander with a heart made out of gold (and a rotator cuff made of straw) who hasn't pitched professionally since 2005.
And finally, you know you're living in Texas when Christmas is just two days in the rear-view mirror and you're staring the possibility of a damaging early-morning squall line in the face. Good times.
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The Off-Season 




Reader Comments (4)
Unless we have other deals looming, I just don't understand why we'd trade for a bat. All off season we've heard the Rangers likely won't deal for a third baseman which is certainly a bigger question make than outfield/DH.
Other thoughts:
*Can't believe the Yankees are already trying to deal Swisher. Can't imagine they'll get much back for him (just like they didn't give up much to get him).
*Unless he goes the the Yankees (could that happen?), Varitek will probably be back in Boston or retire. He's a type A free agent, and no one's going to give up a pick to sign a guy who's only real value are intangibles.
*The Giants now have Lincecum, Cain, Lowery, Zito, Johnson and Sanchez. Obviously they'd love to deal Zito (but no one's going to take on that contract), and I'm wondering if there's more of a chance they'd jump at a Blalock for Sanchez swap.
*I still standby my opinion that the Rangers should hold on to their current catchers. While I like Teagarden a little more than Salty, I'd hate to deal Salty, then have just Teagarden and Max and have Teagarden come out slumping and be scuttling to find a stopgap solution. At least Salty has played the equivalent of a whole season of major league baseball. There's always the trade deadline and that's when we should have a clearer pitcher of where we'll stand in competing in '10. Then's when you can deal a top young catcher for a pitcher for a team that's out of contention and doesn't want to lose their young ace without compensation (outside of draft picks). I have to Royals steamrolling towards another 100 loss season and might want to go ahead and deal a guy like Grienke as the trade deadline for a package of young players. Pirates will also be terrible and they have a couple young guys that really need to rebound, but whom things could really click for this season. Obviously the Florida Marlins are always to be considered if they falter.
Joey, it's not very cool of me to do this, with this being the holiday season and all, but back in May 2001, I wrote about the point Zrebiec made regarding the 2001 draft. It was actually the origin of the Glaus-Grilli series of reports.
The reason I apologize in advance is it also throws your Packers under the bus.
Here goes:
May 31, 2001
On December 18, 1988, one of the most important games in Dallas Cowboy history took place, as the Green Bay Packers defeated the then-Phoenix Cardinals, 26-17, salting the win away on a Don Majkowski-to-Clint Didier touchdown pass.
I kid you not.
The significance of that GB-PHO game — the Pack’s second straight win — was that it improved the Packer record to 4-12, while the Cowboys were busy dropping to 2-14 with a 23-7 loss to Philadelphia. Had Dallas won and Green Bay lost, the teams would have been deadlocked and facing some sort of tiebreaker or maybe a coin flip to determine which of them would get the number one pick in the 1989 draft.
With the unlikely two-game win streak for Green Bay, the Cowboys picked first, taking Troy Aikman. The Packers picked second, landing Tony Mandarich.
Why do you care?
Because in my opinion, the final week of the Rangers’ 2000 season might ultimately prove to be similarly significant in its effect on this club’s immediate future.
The Baltimore Orioles were a bad baseball team last year, at 67-86 with nine games remaining against Boston, Toronto, and the Yankees. Texas wasn’t so great either, as its record stood at 70-83 with nine to play against Anaheim, Seattle, and Oakland. And then something strange happened. The O’s reeled off seven wins out of the nine games, including the final four games straight — by the average score of 13-2. At the same time, the Rangers lost eight of nine, including the final three — by the average score of 11-2. And as a result, in the space of nine days, Baltimore went from three games worse than Texas in the AL standings to three games better, and accordingly Texas ended up with the third-worst record in the league.
In baseball, the draft is conducted with the AL and NL alternating picks, and so the result of the Texas-Baltimore standings flip at the 2000 finish line was that the Rangers will pick fifth overall in the June 5, 2001 draft, and the O’s will pick seventh. This could be very, very important.
That is because in my opinion, which I will state right out front is worth very little since I have not seen any of these guys play, four players are worth getting excited about — USC righthander Mark Prior, Georgia Tech third baseman Mark Teixeira, Middle Tennessee State righthander Dewon Brazelton, and Baltimore high school righthander Gavin Floyd. And even though Texas drafts fifth, I feel pretty comfortable that one, and maybe two, of those players will be there when the Ranger selection comes up. Were the Rangers picking seventh, those four would likely be gone.
With less than a week to go before Major League Baseball’s 30 scouting directors make the decisions they get paid to make, Team One Baseball staged a mock draft on its website. I played Tim Hallgren and took Floyd with the Ranger pick.
In the mock draft, Prior went first, Teixeira went second, Brazelton went third, and Casey Kotchman was the fourth pick. I don’t see it actually shaking out that way next week — I think Minnesota will end up shying away from Prior’s demands and take either Brazelton or Joe Mauer, the Cubs will nab Prior, Tampa Bay will take Brazelton (if there) or Alan Horne or Colt Griffin or maybe Roscoe Crosby, and Philadelphia will go with Floyd or Teixeira. Under that scenario, either way the Twins go, Floyd or Teixeira will be there for the Rangers. The Dallas Morning News suggested yesterday that Teixeira or UCLA righthander Josh Karp could be the pick, but from the things I have read — and again, the fact that I am reading the assessments of other people renders my judgment worthless to an extent — Karp seems to have disappointed a lot of scouts this season and could be slipping to the middle part or even back half of the first round.
Let’s talk about Teixeira and Floyd. And to kick the discussion off, how about these two interesting notes:
1. They both attended Mount St. Joseph High School in Severna Park, Maryland. Teixeira was drafted in the ninth round by Boston in 1998, but failed to sign and became a Yellow Jacket. Floyd, incidentally, has committed to South Carolina but is expected to sign a pro contract.
2. A year ago, in assessing the top prospects in the Delaware/Maryland/West Virginia/D.C. region for the 2000 draft, Baseball America noted that if Teixeira and Floyd became the top college and high school selections when the 2001 draft rolled aruond, it would mark the first time that one high school produced the top college and high school player in the same draft. BA then went on to rank the top players in that region who were eligible for last year’s draft. Number one? Delaware high school righthander Randy Truselo. Number two? Towson State lefthander Chris Russ. Both, as you know, became Ranger selections, both on the ledger sheet of Ranger scout Doug Harris.
On to Teixeira and Floyd.
Teixeira is, by all accounts, one of the most polished hitters to come out of college in years, a switch-hitting Troy Glaus/Lance Berkman type. A Scott Boras client, the Twins won’t take him. The Cubs won’t unless Prior goes first. Tampa Bay cannot pay its own major league roster, so forget Teixeira — plus they have never — never — taken a college player in the first three rounds. The Phillies? Would they choose to run into Boras again, after the J.D. Drew disaster a few years ago?
Would the Rangers take Teixeira, when (1) the need for pitching is so glaring for this organization, (2) they do not pick again until the fourth round, and (3) third base seems to be fairly well accounted for on the farm with Mike Lamb at AAA and Hank Blalock making huge noise again, this time at High A Charlotte? The way I look at it is this: you take the best player available. If you are not crazy about the pitchers available to you at number five, you don’t “settle” on someone with that pick. Were there hitters that Texas preferred over Jonathan Johnson in 1995, such as Todd Helton or Geoff Jenkins, who were the two players taken immediately after the Ranger pick? In 1996, do you wonder whether St. Louis (3rd pick: Braden Looper), Montreal (5: John Patterson), Detroit (6: Seth Greisinger), or San Francisco (7: Matt White) actually liked Mark Kotsay (9th pick) or Eric Chavez (10th pick) more but felt they needed to go with a pitcher? In 1997, according to the Baseball America draft preview issue I am staring at right now, Anaheim had the third pick and was split between Glaus and righthander Jason Grilli — they took Glaus, and Grilli went with the next pick to the Giants. Think the Angels are happy they made that decision? In the 1998 draft, Kansas City took Stanford righthander Jeff Austin with the fourth pick. J.D. Drew went fifth, Austin Kearns went seventh, Sean Burroughs went ninth, and Carlos Pena went tenth.
What’s the point? These examples illustrate that at times, deciding in the top of the first round to draft for need can be dangerous. It may very well be that the Rangers like Prior and Brazelton and Floyd and Karp more than Teixeira, and if so, I hope they take the pitcher. But if they evaluate Teixeira to have a higher and more projectable ceiling than whatever pitchers are undrafted by the time the fifth pick comes around, then I think Teixeira needs to be the pick.
Happy Holidays, brother. You and Jason and John keep up the great work.
After listening to the "greatness" that is Norm Hitzges and the Jon Daniels interview, I felt as if the Rangers are gonna lose out on Ben Sheets, especially with the the gasp like pause, and the way he immediately said "go ahead" on the follow-up, as if to dance away from the question. I really don't think Sheets will come at a bargain either, regardless of the severity of the economy. I do think that the economy has slowed signings, but March is around the corner come mid January I expect things to move at an accelerated pace. I sure hope so the anxiety is KILLING me!!!
Go Rangers!!!
On a side note, so glad the Cowboy's got Troy... Oh the Glory Days!!!
I also want to say how GREAT this site is!!! Baseball is a great game, and even more fun talking about. This site has become a daily ritual, and all the writers do a prolific job... to that I say Thank You for giving me something to think about and something to read that I thoroughly enjoy.
Thanks for the report, Jamey, and thanks for the kind words all.