The Nine In '09: Cristian Santana
Jason Parks
Cristian Santana - Photo courtesy of Mike HindmanOver the next nine days I will profile the nine players that I encourage you to pay attention to during the '09 season. These players were not included on BBTiA's Top 25 Prospects list, and they all played in the Arizona Rookie League and above during the '08 season. I excluded all players that were not stateside in '08, but I will focus on the Dominican Summer League prospects before the minor league season begins.
The prospects that will be profiled might not be the biggest names, or have the highest ceilings, but they are the players that I think have a chance to take big steps forward during the '09 season. Who is on your list?
On my list so far:
| Matt West | Miguel De Los Santos | Clark Murphy | Geuris Grullon | Matt Thompson | Kennil Gomez | Jacob Brigham |
Cristian Santana
Cristian Santana has the highest ceiling of any player not currently on BBTiA's prospect list, and despite his struggles, might have one of the highest ceilings of any position prospect in the system. His enormous raw power in combination with his athleticism and baseball IQ point to a player with the tools to be a superstar; unfortunately, even the most favorable scouting reports and projections can't completely mask poor on-the-field results. In '08, regardless of the fact that he was a 19-year-old in full-season ball, Santana took a step back.
As previously mentioned, Santana's power potential is ridiculous. The stout 6' 0," 180-pound Dominican has tremendous raw strength and ultra-quick hands that can punish a baseball if he happens to be lucky enough to connect with it. His approach at the plate isn't horrific, but his pitch recognition is below average and resulted in a 36.9 percent strikeout rate in '08. Again, Santana was only 19 years old and playing in full-season ball despite having only 33 games of professional experience, but those results raise huge warning signs about his future.
In addition to his power, Santana is also an above-average athlete with a strong arm and sound defensive fundamentals. A torn labrum in his right arm put Santana on the shelf for the entire '06 season and has slowed down his development behind the plate thanks to periods of swelling and weakness associated with the shoulder. As a result, Santana saw limited action behind the dish during the '08 season, spending most of his time in either left field or as a designated hitter. If 100 percent healthy (which he should be in '09), Santana's defensive skill set should make him an above-average defensive catcher. Thanks to the injuries (shoulder, thumb) and the lack of experience behind the plate, Santana is still quite raw, but should continue to show improvement if given steady playing time.
Look for Santana to repeat the Low A level in '09, with a chance to reach High-A Bakersfield if everything clicks. The natural talent is so extreme that despite the poor results, Santana should still be considered a top position prospect in this system. If he can continue to refine his approach at the plate, and clean up his swing mechanics, Santana could be a player that absolutely explodes.
Reader Comments (14)
Extremely unlikely upside: Pudge?
Pudge comes to mind, so does Max Ramirez...
Extremely unlikely upside: Raul Mondesi. Newberg mentioned that to me yesterday. Very interesting.
Well Raul Mondesi was good when he had to be. He was rookie of the year and an all star. I would love to see Santana play like Mondesi, high compliment to me.
Is the Mondesi comp predicated on Santana moving to the outfield full-time at some point? I vaguely recall there being some talk about that becoming a reality...or are we speaking solely of offensive upside without taking into account positions?
I can't speak for Jamey, but the Mondesi comp seems to be based on his offensive upside. Mondesi had one the strongest arms I've ever seen in the OF. Santana has a strong arm, but Mondesi was an 80 arm.
As a prospect, it's hard to want to be compared to Mondesi who's probably the most overrated outfielder of the last 20 years with David Justice.
Robert: I'm not sure I would call Mondesi overrated. In 1525 career games he put up a career OPS+ of 113. He won two GG, a ROY, and had one of the strongest OF arms of his generation. Personally, I think Mondesi was one of the most underrated players of the 90s. 9 straight seasons with an OPS+ over league average with GG level defensive. Not bad.
Jason, during the live ball era, he hit 271 HRs, and not once (even on accident) have a 100 RBI season. And that GG caliber defense was more his arm, then plus instincts, or speed in the outfield. Offensively he boils down to a poor man's Bobby Abreu. There's absolutely nothing wrong with Mondesi from '94-'97 when he was a young "star in the making". After that, he fell off, trying to become a power player, and his BA dropped, his K's rose, and his power numbers stayed the same for a while, before falling off. And that gold glove caliber defense was maybe the best arm of his generation, plus speed and little else. By the time he was dealt to Toronto in '02 is arm had fallen off pretty sharply as had his range in the outfield. It's also worth noting he stole 229 bases, but was only successful on 71% of his attempts. He was essentially Benito Santiago of outfielders. A promising early career prompted people to believe he was (much) better than he really was.
RBIs are a product of the situation and not a stat that should carry much weight when discussing the offensive prowess of a player. Also, stealing at a 71% clip is above the percentage where it becomes a detriment to the team. It's not the greatest % in the world, but I hardly think it can be used as a negative in this argument.
Suggesting a prospect has the offensive potential of Raul Mondesi is never a bad thing. Mondesi had a very successful major league career despite the fact that his skill set started to regress earlier than expected.
Mondesi's career OPS+ tells me quite about the offensive force he was in the 90s. Not every hitter in the "live ball" era put up 50+ HRs a season. Mondesi was an above-league average hitter 10 times in 13 seasons. In fact, he only failed to crack an OPS+100 one time when getting more than 500 at bats. That is consistency.
Mondesi was never really considered a power hitter. He was considered a very good all-around baseball player that had some pop, had some speed, played good defense, and was out of the league at age 34 after putting up an OPS+114 at age 32. His attitude didn't help his cause, and his patience at the plate was never anything to write home about, but if one of our prospects developed into a Mondesi-esque player I would be thrilled.
I don't feel it's fair to compare our players to players in that era for obvious reasons. Not every player was hitting 50 HRs, but a ton of players were like Brady Anderson who has an awful close OPS+ to Mondesi. If Santana turns into a Juan Rivera type corner outfield bat, I'd be a-okay.
Brady Anderson was a well-known juicer who had one huge power season on his resume. I'm not sure I understand what Anderson has to do with Mondesi.
The initial debate was about Mondesi being the most overrated OF in the past 20 years. I absolutely disagree with that opinion. Mondesi didn't live up to the expectations his skill set promised, but he did carve out a very good MLB career and was still considered by many to be a very underrated player.
As I mentioned, Mondesi didn't do himself any favors thanks in part to his poor attitude. However, his skill set was enormous, and despite retiring from baseball at age 34, was still able to leave a very solid career stat line behind.
The Juan Rivera comp is pretty solid. Rivera is bigger and has a much better arm, but I think Santana's offensive projection is pretty similar to Rivera's career line. Nice work.
The comparisons to Anderson stem from a similar career OPS+. Obviously Santana has nowhere near the arm of Mondesi, so dropping the defense, and strictly comparing him, at best, to a player like Mondesi is not a terribly endearing comparison. Think of it this way:
Which outfielder was better (no looking at stats):
David Justice
Reggie Sanders
Ryan Klesko
Raul Mondesi
Brady Anderson
Mondei's name pops out at you obviously, probably followed by Justice. But Mondesi career numbers were inferior to Klesko's (OPS+ 128, .500 SLG), Sanders' (OPS+ 115, .487 SLG)....
but just ending that thought there because I've thought of something else:
If Raul Mondesi hadn't had the attitude, his likely career numbers may have been like Sanders. Now for me Sanders has always been a good (not great) number 2 outfielder. Clearly you would like him better than the secondary outfielders we had on the team last season (Murphy, Cruz, Byrd, Boggs), but I have a hard time wrapping my head around a guy making your list of 9 guys to pay attention to if at his absolute ceiling is a guy who may win ROY (Mondesi, Sanders both did), play in an All-Star game or two (again, both). You see what I'm saying? If that's his absolute ceiling, and considering his relatively poor play last season, wouldn't you be inclined to have named another player who's ceiling may have been a whole lot higher? I'm not doubting your comparing the two because I haven't seen anything Santana has done, but if Mondesi is a guy's ceiling, wasn't there another player who had a higher one?... that's all I'm asking.
I see where you are coming from, but still disagree with your conclusion. Projecting a player like Santana, who doesn't even turn 20 until June '09, to have a similar offensive career as a player like Mondesi, who was ROY and had a 113 career OPS+ during a 13 year career, suggests, at least to me, a player with a very high ceiling.
If Santana becomes Mondesi (extremely unlikely) the Rangers would have struck gold.