Tuesday Morning Rangers Notes: Milton Bradley's Big Payday
Joey Matschulat
Milton Bradley (pictured) isn't likely to accept the Rangers' arbitration offer. - idiart/Flickr.comMultiple local media sources, including MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, are reporting that the Texas Rangers have, as expected, offered salary arbitration to outfielder Milton Bradley -- their lone ranked free agent according to the Elias Sports Bureau, which bestowed upon Bradley 'Type B' status -- and declined to offer salary arbitration to right-handers Jason Jennings and Jamey Wright and infielder Ramon Vazquez.
Should Bradley opt to accept the Rangers' offer by Sunday evening's 11:00 p.m. CST deadline (disclaimer: he almost certainly won't), Texas will essentially bring back their superb December 2007 free-agent acquisition on a one-year deal worth something in the general vicinity of $10 million, presumably after the two sides reach a pre-arbitration settlement that effectively circumvents the unpalatable arbitration process.
Should Bradley decline, Texas will net a compensatory supplemental-round draft pick in the 2009 MLB First-Year Player Draft between the first and second rounds. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News speculated on Monday that said pick could register around 50th overall, and while attempting to predict whom the Rangers could snag with the Bradley-generated freebie is obviously an exercise in futility this far off, the top-60 draft prospects list compiled by ESPN.com's Keith Law three months ago does showcase some names that could come into play next June when the Rangers must decide which amateur players should adorn the top of their draft board.
The Rangers face no restrictions in negotiating with any of their four eligible free agents (even if Bradley does decline the club's arbitration offer), though Milton remains understandably eager to cash in his breakthrough 2008 campaign for a multi-year contract and is, according to Marty York of Metronews.ca, currently leaning towards inking a deal with the defending American League-champion Tampa Bay Rays.
SI.com's Jon Heyman reported back on November 4th that Bradley was seeking a four-year deal worth no less than $10 million annually, and while it's highly unlikely (though not inconceivable) that any team would pony up that sort of cash for such a volatile and injury-prone talent, it would still come as no great shock if he did end up signing a contract structurally similar to the two-year, $24 million deal with a third-year team option that I advocated some months back.
Curiously, my mid-September assessment of the situation -- published in the third edition of the Mike Hindman-moderated "Armchair GM Roundtable" at the Dallas Morning News -- has ended up somewhat off-target, though not in the way you would automatically assume:
It's improbable the Rangers will manage to lure a premier free-agent starting pitcher in the vein of CC Sabathia or Ben Sheets away from lucrative offers in bigger markets this coming winter, so even after factoring in Michael Young's mammoth $80 million contract extension, throwing roughly $12 million per year at Bradley and calling it a day probably isn't going to be terribly cost-prohibitive in the grand scheme of things.
That self-concocted $12 million estimate is evidently far more cost-prohibitive than I initially presumed; with an owner-imposed payroll cap now implemented (and thought to be around the $75 million mark), even throwing $10 million at Bradley would effectively preclude Texas from being able to address any other pressing areas of organizational need beyond the obligatory mass-mailing of non-roster invites before and during spring training.
It's hard to fathom Bradley not nabbing a fairly lucrative payday even in what now appears to be an increasingly tepid, recession-conscious free-agent market, but then far stranger things have happened, and while offering Bradley arbitration was perhaps the "Well, duh!" component of the Rangers' off-season plan, it's still a component that carries some modicum of risk with it.
By the way, anybody else get a strange kick out of the fact that Bradley's two most ardent suitors at the moment -- Tampa Bay and Toronto -- both play half of their games on turf? Yeah, I'm sure that stuff does wonders for surgically repaired knees.
As for the remaining trio of Texas free agents, Jennings will likely be retained via the ever-popular minor league contract (with an invitation to big league spring training included, no doubt), Wright will probably find employment elsewhere in light of the Rangers' apparent lack of interest in bringing him back, and Vazquez seemingly couldn't care less about remaining in Texas, so away he goes.
Quick Hits: The Rangers have granted permission to the Mariners to interview minor league pitching coordinator Rick Adair for their vacant bullpen coaching spot; Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times reports that the Mariners will announce Adair as their new bullpen coach on Wednesday...Justin Smoak notched a cool 149 OPS+ (.352/.468/.571 in 91 AB) in the 2008 Arizona Fall League...the Rangers' 36-game 2009 spring training schedule has been released...Japanese right-hander Junichi Tazawa has been signed to a three-year Major League contract worth $3 million, pending the results of his physical...NPB's Hanshin Tigers have reportedly signed former Rangers outfielder Kevin Mench to a one-year, $2 million deal.
Reader Comments (12)
It sucks that we lose Rick Adair, who do we replace him with? I will not miss Milton Bradley. How about signing Frank Thomas as the DH?
I think we have a set rotation-
Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Harrison, and Feldman
Bullpen- Gabbard, Benoit, Nippert, Wilson, Eyre, Rupe, Madrigal, and Francisco
We have to figure out where we put Hurley and Mendoza.
Do you feel confidant with this as your staff?
If we trade a catcher or two for pitching, who do get rid of?
Nathan: I think a good internal candidate to replace Adair would be Frisco pitching coach Terry Clark. He is respected by the front office, and more importantly, by the players he instructs.
I think that rotation is average at best. Harrison has some upside, but is still developing as a pitcher, Feldman was a pleasant surprise last year, but I have no idea what to expect in '09, McCarthy is a bust, and Millwood and Padilla are both inconsistent pitchers that have the stuff to be above average when they are on.
Basically, that rotation looks like 3rd place to me.
Nathan,
Granted I'm no expert on the Rangers, but as of right now Blalock is locked in at DH with Davis at 1B. The only position player we would conceivably go after would be a third baseman. Right now I would figure Metcalf would get first dibbs at it.
As for our pitching staff I would think only Millwood and Padilla are guaranteed spots. The next would likely be Feldman since he performed so well last year. Next might be Harrison as he's probably the top lefty option for the rotation. Considering what we gave up for McCarthy, he'll be given every chance to lock a spot down in the rotation but he has to prove he can stay healthy. Once Spring training rolls around there won't be any shortage of suitors looking at those last couple of spots and a hot Spring could mean a big league rotation spot for Hurley, Diamond, Rupe, or maybe someone else (Murray? Nippert?). Maybe even Mendoza will get another chance. In any case our rotation isn't set right now. With the arrival of Nolan Ryan I truly think everyone will be re-evaluated.
I would imagine another reliever gets added to the bullpen before the start of the season since C.J. Wilson and Benoit both need to rebound from a lousy season. Madrigal is still a work in progress. I'm not sure Eyre is anywhere close to assured of a bullpen spot. Nippert is a personal favorite of mine (I'm a WVU alum), but he's never enjoyed any sort of extended success in the big leagues so far. Francisco is certainly a lock. And finally, Gabbard is probably one injury away from no longer being in the Ranger's plans.
Nathan (part 2),
I missed the catching question, but I would assume that Taylor Teagarden is currently regarded as our backstop of the future. His superior defensive skills to go with good power outshines either Max Ramirez or Salty in terms of pure hitting skills. I just think Laird is the kind of guy you're always looking to replace. Not that he's a bad catcher, but he's just very vanilla. That being said, Laird has expressed frustration the last two seasons with splitting at bats, so you would think he's probably gone... but as far as value goes, he may have the least. He's fully developed and is a good defensive catcher with some good pop as well, but keep in mind that his offensive numbers will suffer once he leaves Arlington. So Laird is almost certainly gets dealt. Then it comes down to Max or Salty. It seems Texas has given up converting Salty to a first baseman, which is fine since he's not nearly the hitter Davis is. Behind the dish he's not particularly good, especially at throwing out runners... though he's better than most critics outside of Texas give him credit for. In the end he needs extended at bats playing catcher. He was rushed by Atlanta, and when he became the focal point of the Texiera trade, the Rangers also had to keep him on the major league team. Ideally he would get time in AAA, and I think given a full season there he would establish himself as one of the great young catchers in baseball. Still though, in an offseason where money is tight, the only way the Rangers will improve themselves is through trade and Salty is there top trading chip if they won't offer Teagarden or any of their farm system. Ramirez is a lot like Salty, though he doesn't have nearly the value... possibly because he was dealt so many times, or possibly 'cause other teams haven't scouted him properly. Because of this, I would assume Salty gets dealt.
So short answer: Salty and Laird
At that point I would probably go with a cheap veteran backstop to backup Teagarden, and send Ramirez to AAA to get a full season of catching... and call him up if a.) something happens to one of the catchers or b.) something happens to Blalock (or the DH position) and let him hammer the ball. If we do deal Blalock for whatever reason, I'd keep Ramirez on the major league roster, let him catch once a week, and DH the other days... or platoon him at the DH position with Catalanotto, or whatever OFer isn't playing at the time (Cruz, Hamilton, Byrd, or Murphy)
I think I'm one of the few people that isn't bubbling over with enthusiasm regarding Scott Feldman. There's just something about him that screams "Ryan Drese!" at me, and not in the 2004 "grounder-inducing ace" sense either, but rather the "he'll be out of the starting rotation by the All-Star Break" sense. He's out of minor league options and will presumably receive every opportunity to stick around after the way he chewed up innings in 2008, but it wouldn't shock me if he ultimately suffered a similar fate to Drese, who bombed early in 2005 and was promptly cut loose to the dismay of many Ranger fans, after which everybody realized he wasn't actually that good to begin with (and the results thereafter backed that assessment up).
In fact, of the Millwood/Padilla/Harrison/McCarthy/Feldman rotation projection, Feldman's my bet to be the first to go.
And, quite frankly, I'm not seeing the benefit in keeping Eyre around as a long man when you've got live-armed individuals like Dustin Nippert (who, like Feldman, is also out of options) still hanging around that you need to find out about...as presently comprised, this roster will be good for about 80-82 wins in 2009 and perhaps a few more if a lot of things break right. Unless Eyre has magically added a huge chunk of velocity and is suddenly flashing the upside one would normally associate with a reliable late-inning reliever, Texas might as well find out if that superb stuff Nippert's touting around will ever translate into big league consistency.
Joey,
I agree re Nippert. He's just the type I'd hope the Rangers would trade extra parts for if we didn't already have him. So is McCarthy. So is Homer Bailey. As you know, I'd like about 10 of this sort, and use this year to pare them down to 5 starters.
In the meantime, though, I hope JD will keep our consistently fair young, controllable arms like Feldman, and trade our inconsistent (sometimes brilliant sometimes awful vet pitchers when they're on a brilliant streak-- e.g. Padilla now, while his wins and ERA look better than his FIP (fielding independent percentages?), and Millwood at the ASB, or as soon as his wins and ERA start to reflect or even outshine his FIP (since they currently make him look worse than he really was).
I mean, if it comes down to a decision between a Nippert-Bailey-McCarthy-type and Feldman, I hope we go with the high-upside type all year. But if it comes down to Feldman or a vet whom we could package with other extras ( for someone like Vitters,ready to play 3rd by 2011) I sure hope we pull the trigger for the sake of both the return and the room it would clear for Feldman to prove himself as a year-in year- out serviceable #4, # 5 or long man. He might have a timwakefieldish place on our 25-man roster for years, whereas our sometimes ace-like veteran starters simply have no future with us. I don't want to dump the value they have, but I'd love to trade it in for future returns.
Joey,
I completely agree with Feldman. He has virtually no upside and at best is probably a below average number 4 guy, but he was our most consistent pitcher last year. Given that, he probably has a good a chance to come out of Spring with a couple bad starts and still see a spot in the rotation vs. say Hurley. If nothing else his function early in the season could be just to eat innings while our young pitchers get more seasoning in AAA, and if he bombs like Drese then they can cut him, and call a guy up. More minor league seasoning for Eric Hurley, Tommy Hunter, Thomas Diamond, or whoever else certainly can't hurt.
Michael,
I noticed you mentioned Bailey pretty heavily in your comment. I've read several sources stating the Reds are fed up with Bailey and whatnot, but very few connecting him as a trade candidate to the Rangers. Is this another case of the people overplaying the Reds unhappiness with a player that just a few years ago was mentioned in the same breath as Buccholz and Chamberlain.
I wonder that myself, Robert (By the way, I thought your state-of-the-Rangers reply to Nathan was downright professional!)
It seems we match up well with Cinci-- no matter how highly or lowly they value him. I'd think that upon trading him, they'd have interest in Padilla, and we already know they could use Laird (even more than one of our younger C's), and a strong OF bat, e.g. Byrd. It seems that could net us Bailey and one of their "2 excellent 3rd base prospects" that I saw mentioned elsewhere-- sorry no link: any insight into them, J,J, or J?
Anyway, Robert, I'm surprised we don't hear more rumors of such a deal. If Cinci is still asking for the moon for Bailey, we can always say no, but it sure seems the necessary parts for both teams are there to get the conversation going.
The interesting aspect of the Bailey situation is that it seems to be the Rangers, not the Reds, that are forestalling the completion of a Laird-to-Cincy deal, and that sentiment was further confirmed by Evan Grant this morning:
Would I do that deal straight up right now? Probably, although Bailey's dramatic fall from top prospect to borderline reclamation project is inherently disturbing. But I do find myself wondering sometimes how it is that there seems to be such a enormous disparity in interest between Bailey and Clay Buchholz, who similarly struggled in 2008 (albeit not in the minors like Bailey, who just plain sucked wherever he pitched) and has had his own mental make-up questioned to the point where Texas is balking at dealing Laird for Bailey, but Boston apparently wants nothing less than Taylor Teagarden and Jon Daniels' first-born son for Buchholz (who may not be available anyway, though I'm guessing that's just an elaborate smokescreen).
Michael,
Thanks, I used to be an aspiring sports writer, but none of my favorite teams are anywhere close. As for the Reds top prospects there's Todd Frazier (just played in High A) and Christopher Valaika (just played in AA) both 23, and Juan Francisco (just played High A) who's 21. The only other player I can think of is Neftali Soto. Here are some links (from a Red's site):
Todd Frazier: http://redlegsbaseball.blogspot.com/2007/11/top-prospect-list-6-todd-frazier-ss.html
Chris Valaika: http://redlegsbaseball.blogspot.com/2007/11/top-prospect-list-10-chris-valaika-ss.html
Juan Francisco: http://redlegsbaseball.blogspot.com/2007/11/top-prospect-list-7-juan-francisco-3b.html
Neftali Soto: http://redlegsbaseball.blogspot.com/2007/11/top-prospect-list-11-neftali-soto-ss.html
Joey,
Thanks for all that information, but what kind of value can the Rangers truly expect to receive for Laird? Maybe a very good Low-A prospect, but the only major league ready player the Rangers might receive for him is a middle-of-the-road bullpen guy. I'll put it this way: Aaron Heilman wants out of New York. The Mets need catching. Heilman isn't a good starter, and only a pretty good releiver who may or may not succeed in the AL. If we proposed Laird for Heilman, the Mets would almost certainly demand another prospect. I just don't see why the Reds are so eager to turn their backs on Bailey when 2 seasons ago he was their top pitching prospect, and he was doing great until he got injured. The Reds desperately needed pitching help behind Arroyo, Volquez, and Harrang last season and I felt that put all that pressure on Bailey. In Texas he would just be another great pitching prospect, on a team that's not expected to make a serious push for the playoffs this season. Last season, the Reds were the darlings of the NL and everyone expected a possible wildcard birth, especially with an improved pitching staff.