Fixing Third Base, Part I: Assessing The Landscape
Joey Matschulat
Should the Texas Rangers roll with Travis Metcalf (pictured above) at third base in 2009? - Keith Allison/Flickr.comWith three final exams down (yielding a pair of A's and a B in terms of final course grades), one final exam to go tomorrow morning ("bright and early at 8:00 a.m.," according to my over-enthusiastic, caffeine-fueled Management & Organization professor) and a very special first-hand encounter with the scam that is the college textbook industry now safely in my rear-view mirror, some degree of normality is beginning to creep back into my life after 48-plus hours of frantic last-minute cramming, and for that I am ever grateful.
Earlier this week, we talked at length about what free-agent right-hander Ben Sheets would bring to Rangers Ballpark in Arlington -- which is presently under renovation, if for some odd reason you haven't already heard -- in terms of not only on-the-field value as a rotation staple, but also potential revenue-generating value as a marketing asset if Texas were to succeed in prying the lurking fireballer from the shadows. We also identified Sheets's probable fair value in the free-agent marketplace based on his 2008 level of performance, which is somewhere around the $14-15 million per year mark.
Of course, that likely prohibitive price tag is what will ultimately keep the Rangers on the periphery of the Sheets sweepstakes unless general manager Jon Daniels engineers a surprise Christmas salary dump -- one that would undoubtedly ship off either a noticeably slimmed-down Kevin Millwood (who noted during the Rangers' holiday media party on Tuesday that he would be physically prepared for the 2009 season, regardless of where he ends up pitching it), Vicente Padilla or Hank Blalock -- that enables the tendering of an competitive offer, or unless owner Tom Hicks concludes that Sheets would be a worthwhile enough investment that overriding the apparent payroll ceiling currently in place would be financially feasible.
The inherent obstacle looming between the win-thirsty fan base and the dream of the Rangers celebrating Christmas or ringing in the New Year with the acquisition of Sheets is, well, the dream itself. We know the 30-year-old Metroplex resident evokes legitimate interest in the Rangers' front office, but to date Texas has not formally submitted a bid, and it's certainly within the realm of possibility that one will never materialize. Basing the entirety of your off-season plan around a long shot obviously isn't advisable or prudent, and thus it's advantageous for us to examine other ways that the Rangers could immediately improve their big league product without relinquishing a Texas-sized bounty in terms of cash or talent.
Mixed signals have been radiating from the newswires with regard to the Rangers' impending hot corner conundrum, and how the organization plans to bridge the gap from 2008 -- which found a wide assortment of infielders logging heavy playing time at the position, including the defensively inept trifecta of Ramon Vazquez, Chris Davis and Hank Blalock) -- to 2010, a year which might well denote the onset of Michael Young's career as a third baseman. Travis Metcalf, now 26 and likely equipped with his own nameplate-adorned seat on the bus that so frequently carts him between Oklahoma City and Arlington, appears to be the internal favorite to snag the starting job, but that may not be saying very much.
As a direct consequence, Texas has reportedly expressed at least some degree of interest in several of the free-agent market's top offerings at third base, including Casey Blake, who re-signed with the Dodgers for $17.5 million over the life of a three-year pact several weeks ago, and Joe Crede, a defensive wizard whose former offensive productivity has been decimated by back problems over the last two seasons. Veteran infielder Ty Wigginton also notably hit the market last week after the Astros opted to non-tender the 30-year-old slugger when it was determined that he would have consumed approximately $7 million of payroll space through salary arbitration.
There is some thought that the Rangers don't have any business attempting to implement what might well amount to a one-year upgrade at third base -- and perhaps a marginal one, at that -- with Young presumably destined to slide over there at some point in the next several years; however, neither Crede or Wigginton would cost Texas a 2009 draft pick, and both could conceivably represent "flippable" commodities at some point in the future if inked at the right price, or could protect against an unforeseen wrinkle spontaneously appearing in "The Plan" (i.e. top shortstop prospect Elvis Andrus not developing quite as quickly as hoped, and not being ready for the majors by spring 2010).
The idea admittedly makes far more sense if you're not a huge believer in Metcalf (I'm not), or if you feel that German Duran would be better employed as a do-it-all utility man than as an everyday third baseman (I do), or if you feel that the likelihood of the Rangers legitimately competing for a playoff spot in 2009 is so minute that Texas should forgo courting a veteran stopgap and simply dole out playing time to the youngsters. Heck, it's quite possible that this notion of mine -- that the Rangers would be wise to seek help at third base outside of the organization -- is completely misguided, and I know you'll promptly let me know if it is.
But with those disclaimers aside, let's take a quick look at what the Rangers extracted from their diverse stable of third basemen in 2009 compared to what Crede and Wigginton offered their own respective squads:
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The truth ain't pretty, folks. Rangers third basemen collectively produced a sterling .281/.339/.469 batting line in 655 plate appearances in 2008, but hemorrhaged runs at an alarming rate in the field, scoring a horrific 32 plays below average in the plus/minus defensive rating system (denoted by the '+/-') and 24 runs below average according to the newly available Ultimate Zone Rating statistics at FanGraphs (denoted by the 'UZR'), which employs the same fielding data (mined and provided by Baseball Info Solutions) as the plus/minus system does, though not the same engine.
Vazquez was perhaps the most egregious offender in that regard, followed closely by Davis and then -- ironically enough -- Duran and Metcalf, whom we just finished discussing. Think that was beneficial to a mediocre pitching staff that was already gasping for air before the defense came along and forcibly held its head underwater? Think again.
I would strongly caution that even though these two metrics are right on the cutting edge when it comes to publicly available defensive evaluation tools, they're not perfect, and the sample sizes we're working with here are far from optimal; nevertheless, we can obtain a pretty firm idea of just how much damage was wrought by abominable glovework at this particular position in 2008, and what two potential players of interest to the Rangers brought to the table for their teams during their own respective campaigns.
In the second and final installment of this two-part assessment, we'll take a more in-depth look at Crede, Wigginton and several trade possibilities that could diminish the uncertainty presently looming over the third base bag in Arlington, but may not make as much sense for Texas as they might appear to on the surface.
In the meantime, fire away with your own thoughts on how the Rangers should stabilize their precarious footing at third base -- or if, for that matter, they should even bother.
Reader Comments (29)
Geez, am I suppose to read all of that? :)
I wouldn't mind seeing Metcalf get an opportunity to show what he could do.
Joey,
Offensively, we'd do very well to platoon Metcalf (vs. Righties) and Duran (vs. Lefties). I've posted the numbers before, but their splits bode very well for Ranger 3B production (and bode I'll for the prospect of either ever becoming full-timers).
What's even more offensive than their combined .820? OPS though, as you point out so well, is that they make the opposition's offense even better than that.
Today I discovered a possible solution, but I don't know if it's realistic: to hope to get him: Martin Prado from the Braves. He's currently playing back-up SS and 3B behind Yunel E, and Chipper Jones: a job shared with another utility IF/OF whose name I'm forgetting. Anyway, this guy has very promising numbers at 3B-- both offensive and defensive-- from when he filled in for Chipper Jones (for about 50 straight games?) last year.
He looks like our answer to me, because he could play SS next year (when MY goes to 3rd) if Elvis isn't ready, and back up both SS and 3B if he is.
When you compare possibilities, can you include him?
I'm thinking Millwood + Byrd + Metcalf could get him and whomever Byrd replaces in the outfield (Anderson, Diaz, or one of the other 2 whose names I'm forgetting).
Cheers & thanks!
Metcalf had a good ST last year until he pulled up lame. He probably would have been the starter on opening day. I would rather see the Ranegrs go with either him or Duran. They need to find out what they have in them.
Count me among the Metcalf supporters as well. There is currently one scenario in which I'd support a trade for another 3B though, and I'll wait for Part 2 before I bust out that opinion.
I see Metcalf developing into a Buechele / Brocius type
Would that be Dr. M. Young that's bright and chipper about an 8:00 am exam? *laugh*
The rangers are caught between needing to do something about 3B (FA) and being able to plan for thier next move (Kinsler/Young)
If Hank was able to prove he could play 3B again it would solve the problem.
Too bad we havent been able to for the last 2 seasons.
I think Ramirez should get a chance, he isn't a great defensive catcher either. Any possibility he could get moved to a 3rd base role. Would be nice to add his bat to lineup and let Taylor and Salty split time out to figure who is the man at catcher.
Here's a thought: what if we send Milwaukee Kevin Millwood in exchange for Bill Hall and a reliever (I like Seth McClung in the back/middle of our bullpen). I know Hall hit .225 last season, but I would take that with the defense he plays. He is a really solid defender who can play anywhere in the outfield if we need him to, as well as shortstop and second. Plus, I think a season with Prof. Jaramillo could turn that .225 into .270 easily, not to mention the power he's got. He did hit 15 homers last year depite the woeful slump he fell into, and is just a few years ago he hit 35.
This is all, of course, contigent upon whether or not we can sign Ben Sheets to replace Millwood. If that doesn't happen, then I say we give Metcalf the hot corner and let Duran or Arias back him up. Basically, just keeping it warm until Andrus is ready and Young is willing to move over.
That being said, I'm not so sure that we should give the shortstop job in '10 to Andrus on a silver platter. Michael Young just won a gold glove at short and deserves to compete to keep his position for as long as he can play it at that caliber. I don't see why Andrus has to have the shortstop job ASAP. I think you should make him sweat it out in Oklahoma for a year plus, and then bring him up as a utility type and even have him play a little third. This would mean not giving him the full time shortstop job until '11 or even '12.
Stepping off the soap box now.
I'm hoping we have something in Metcalf and/or Duran. With either one at this point it's hard to say what we have in those players, especially Metcalf he just didn't get much time at the plate. At times Metcalf had a few good swings, I'd be more willing to see what he's got. I don't want to see Crede or Wiggington, not at those prices, and especially if it impedes with the signing of a quality starter, that actually wants to pitch here (Sheets), or at least shows interest. If I'm Tom Hicks that's a gift wrapped exec decision, that I jump on TODAY!!! I here the Yankees say they aren't gonna touch Sheets now that they've got Burnett, that it would be too much of a risk having two injury-prone pitchers. That is a green light for the Rangers to go and get 'em!!! I say sign him now, slash bad contracts later, sometimes you just have to do things like that when it makes sense.
Hank Blaylock is starting to look like a bargain, but then again is he still classified as a third baseman? Is it completely ruled out of a return to third if he stays healthy? Can he stay healthy? I move him if it yields quality pitching. Remaining patient here can be a huge risk if he's injured again, but be very rewarding if he stays healthy and returns to the Hammerin' Hank of old, say at the trade deadline.
Norm Hitzges said Young would move back to 2B when Andrus is ready, and Kinsler would move to LF, which isn't a bad idea, especially with Smoak in the mix down the road at 1B and Crush Davis now looming at 1B/3B. Although I guess the plan is to play Davis at first for now. I don't see Young making two position changes in 2 or 3 years, when both Smoak and Andrus are ready. It would be easier to slide Crush over to 3B. I also think Young's contract is a bad one, and am intrigued what a return for his services would yield. I know that's not a popular decision, but I'm a Rangers fan not just a Michael Young fan, it would be painful to see him go, but that's what I thought about Tex, and look at what he yielded. I know Young will not bring as much of a return as Tex, but if the offer was good enough, I'd listen. Not to mention Young is getting older, and those rollers are rolling a little slower. I also was surprised he won a gold glove this year in comparison to earlier seasons.
I see Millwood having a good season, it may be better suited to trade him at the deadline. I can't wait to see him go, I just don't like a guy that loses weight now that's it's a contract year, yet is lazy all the other signed years with his workout regimen. So he'll give a little extra this year, and try and make us forget all those lit up starts he's had for us. Guess he finally figured out that his facial hair can't save him on game day, wait a minute that's right it's a contract year. Sorry Kevin but I'm not falling for it.
I would like to see us move Millwood, Padilla, Byrd, Cat, Blaylock, and one more catcher. I don't think anyone is going to want Cat unless it's a salary dump exchange. It's very exciting time right now being a baseball fan, although I would like to see something done soon, remaining patient could really pay off in the long run. Just my take on it.
It would be nice to have someone at third who can field the ball, especially considering how many ground ball types we throw out there on a nightly basis. I'm not against letting Duran & Metcalf duke it out in ST and the loser goes on the bench with Arias.
Here's what I would not like to see, though. I hope they don't sign Crede. He's a good player, but his back is not right, and he missed almost all of the second half last season. I have serious doubts that he's going to suddenly become well and play 150 games in 2009. Wigginton has some good homer power, but he's not any better at third than Metcalf & Duran, and it seems that if they're going to spend money on someone, it ought to be a pitcher. Other than these 2, the FA list at third looks terrible, and so I'd pass if I were them.
I would like to see them move Hank, too - maybe they can get a bullpen arm for him or something. I don't know. They have way too many lefties, and I'd rather see Max at DH than Blalock, anyway.
I get the feeling that the market is all backed up waiting on what Texeira will do. When he signs (I read today that it might be next week), I think some teams will start identifying players to go after - I expect Hank will be one of those guys.
Merry Christmas, folks.
Also by signing Sheets now, I think the Rangers can better their chances of moving Millwood and/or Padilla. With Sheets off the market that means that the demand for a starter will go up. Just another reason to sign him now. If that happens I believe it will give the Rangers the upper hand in dealing a starter.
I hope the exam went well. Kudos for the two A's and a B!!!
its the rangers; its 2009; it doesnt matter who plays third.
I'd ride out this upcoming season with Metcalf/Duran... and obviously Blalock if healthy (although playing Blalock at 3B is risky given his past... I think it would serve the Rangers well to have Blalock in a full time DH role, hopefully enhancing his value to where he might become a tradeable commodity by mid-season).
In the long term, I'd look around the minors for a legit 3B prospect whereas the Rangers could trade from an area of strength (I can't believe I'm saying this but maybe even pitching prospects... but more likely catcher/CF, etc...) and land a young prospect in the mold of a J. Marte from the Mets, etc...
Marte isn't going to smell the bigs with Wright blocking his path... so maybe the Mets would be willing to swap a couple of good A ball type guys for him... someone like De Los Santos and Whittleman.
You'd probably need to sweeten the pot a bit... but I believe the way to improve the Rangers 3B situation is to follow the same model that brought us Davis, etc... Just get by with Metcalf/Duran for 1, maybe 2 seasons... and bring along someone that can hold down the position for the next 5-10 years.
Some thoughts on what I've been reading here (and the overwhelming consensus appears to be that the Rangers should roll with Metcalf and/or Duran, which may well be the correct answer):
- Prado's an interesting player, and somewhat reminiscent of David Murphy in that his major league performance doesn't jive with what he's done in the minors, though in a good way...he's earned accolades in the past for his defense at second base and would probably be adequate enough at any infield position defensively, but what concerns me is that there's really no power there beyond the doubles and triples (and relying on either for a consistent source of slugging percentage can be dicey), and his walk rates aren't outstanding (which admittedly jives with his reputation as a contact hitter capable of putting the bat on the ball -- you won't see him strike out very much, either), so some question then begins to arise with regard to how much of his value is tied up purely in batting average, and what happens to him if he struggles to hit American League pitching quite as well.
That said, he's young enough and presumably talented enough that he might be able to make that transition successfully and emerge as the Rangers' utility infielder of the future...I then wonder, however, what happens to Duran over the long haul...something else that strikes me is that Young isn't going to move to third base for anything less than the Messiah (i.e. Andrus) assuming the reins at shortstop, and I have a really difficult time seeing him agreeing to make such a monumental move before Andrus is ready, so envisioning such a role for Prado might be jumping the gun a bit.
- The main problem with employing Metcalf/Duran as a platoon is that while Duran has faired reasonably well against southpaws throughout most of his professional stops, Metcalf's healthy .281/.341/.496 batting line against RHP in the majors has been compiled over the span of 137 PA...that sample size, in and of itself, isn't that alarming, but the fact that you have to go all the way back to Metcalf's 2005 campaign at High-A Bakersfield to find an instance where he posted an OPS better than .746 against RHP over the span of an entire season is a tad more unsettling.
What am I trying to say? Basically, I'm not that confident that Metcalf can provide a passable level of production. If I was confident in Metcalf, I probably wouldn't have written this long dissertation.
- The MaxRam-to-3B thing isn't going to happen, namely because Ramirez himself said that he viewed himself as a catcher and hated his brief stint at third base with the '04 GCL Braves (during which he struggled mightily with the glove)...it's also improbable he'd fare any better at the hot corner than Vazquez or Davis, though that's nothing more than speculation on my part. And the fact that Blalock dropped the third base experiment again should tell you all you need to know about the state of his shoulder -- it's absolutely shot. I'll be floored if he logs anything more than token playing time at the hot corner in '09.
One more target to consider ( though I prefer Prado's glove): Daniel Murphy of the Mets. Padilla, Metcalf and Byrd for him? Would he then be the 6th Murphy in our system? How would he fair as our '09 3B, and later back-up DH/3B /5thOF?
2009 will be a year of expected improvement for the Rnagers, but a division crown would be a stretch. We haven't improved our starting pitching in the off season. YET.
Given that assumption, the Rangers need to find out if Travis Metcalf is an everyday 3B. We know he is a good defensively. That should help our pitching. The big question is his offense. He has shown flashes of power, but has not been able to stay on the field. 2009 may be a watershed year for Travis.
Should the Rangers feel they can compete this year, they may want to look at external options. Joey has done a good job breaking down Crede and Wiggington. However, what if the Rangers address 3B through a trade.
For example, if Tex signs with BoSox, they must find a home for Lowell. He's iffy due to the hip surgery, but if healthy, Lowell represents both excellent defense and the power RH bat to protect Hammy. The trade might consist of Lowell and Buchholtz for Salty, Golson, Valleo and a good young pitching prospect (Proveda?) that is out of options. I'm not saying this is something BoSox would be interested in, but merely an example of how we might get the 3B solution as part of a trade.
The last option would be to wait to the end of SP to see what is out there at cut time. I'm not inclined to bet on this option.
My guess is to let Travis have his shot.
Joey, where is part II? The natives are getting restless.
At absolute worst, Metcalf or Metcalf/Duran would be a passable stopgap until next season when you have had a further year of development for Whittleman, West, and most importantly Andrus. I just don't see how subpar production at the third base position is what will hold us back this season or next. I think it's becoming a popular topic since we're in a "wait and see" mode with our pitching, but I don't know that we couldn't just go into next season with what we have now and play .500 or better ball again.
I'm changing my opinion: Chris Davis is only going to play the field regularly for 1 year, before he becomes our DH, to make room at 1st for Smoak.
If Metcalf & Duran are practically no better at fielding than Davis, then-- unless we can get a real fielder, such as Prado, we might as well see if Davis can improve there, since having his bat at 3rd would allow us to keep both catchers in the line-up every day (sharing C & DH) while Blalock's trade made room for MaxRam at 1st. Developing all 3 C's as MLB hitters, and Davis as a 3B is a lot of gain in a year that would be defensively bad anyway.
I'll strive to publish Part II sometime later today or early Monday morning. Still not exactly sure which direction I want to go in with it.
With regard to the Lowell idea, I wrote this comment several days ago (and it still seems relatively applicable), so here goes again:
The primary issue with Duran/Metcalf's '08 fielding numbers may be related to sample size -- after all, both were pretty well-regarded defenders coming up through the system, and if the Rangers ultimately choose to employ them as a bizarro righty-righty platoon, it wouldn't shock me in the least if those negative integers were flipped into the positives, or at least returned to league average. That's not so much the case with Davis, whose arm is absolutely ridiculous (in a good way) but whose range and glovework appear to be detrimental to the point where he's probably a -10 run player defensively at third base over the span of a full season.
In other words, there's reason to believe that Duran and Metcalf can turn it around defensively (but also reason to believe that they -- especially Metcalf -- won't be able to hit enough) at third base. I don't know if you can say the same with Davis, and I'm not at all convinced that the Rangers want to go back in that direction.
As far as 2009 is concerned, perhaps you can get by well enough with your internal options...however, if 2010 is your "lift-off" date with regard to legitmately competing for the playoffs, and Metcalf is still your starting third baseman (assuming he doesn't break out and consequently make me look like a fool, which I would be absolutely fine with), you likely have a fairly significant problem that requires addressing. One black hole in the lineup can do a lot of damage.
Actually, in that scenario, Joey (if MY were still SS), yes, we'd have a potential black hole, both hitting and fielding at 3B, making contention difficult,whereas if Andrus is ready, we'd have a developmentally necessary, albeit necessary, black hole fielding 3B and hitting SS, plus a relative permanent black hole hitting 3B, making next year more developmental (potentially less likely to contend) than this year. I'm not saying that's bad, I'm just suggesting that 2011 looks more likely as the lift- off date if 2010 features MY (with a shortstop's bat) getting used to 3B and Andrus (with a weaker SS bat getting used to MLB pitching. If our record in '10 is worse than in '09, we can't necessarily see it as a failed launch, but perhaps as the final step "backwards", or the "countdown".
That second "... necessary" should read "albeit temporary."
That's a fair assessment of the situation, I think...I'm actually not convinced that Andrus would be an offensive black hole from the outset, however (particularly if league-wide shortstop offense remains near decade-low levels like it did in '08), or, for that matter, that Young would be a defensive black hole from the outset. It would be a new position and that would obviously require an obligatory acclimation period, but moving from shortstop to third base is far easier than moving from third base to shortstop.
That's true; 3B is pretty straightforward. In any case, the long-term benefits will be worth any temporary backsliding. It seems MY should practice some 3B this ST in case EA is ready to start that MLB learning curve before 2010.
Why does everyone want to jettison Joaquin Arias? His range, soft glove and sure-handed approach makes him the best defensive 2B on the 40MR... and, his bat was serviceable (.291/.345/.409). He doesn't walk much, but he doesn't strike out much, either. He can hit the gaps and has the speed to create some havoc.
If you want to put our 4 BEST infielders on the infield (figuring Hank isn't one of those anymore), why wouldn't you roll out Crush, Arias, Young and Kinsler. There's no way you'll ever convince me Duran is one of the top four offensively *or* defensively and Metcalf doesn't do it for me, either.
If Arias can't throw from the left side of the IF, leave him at 2B and shift Kinsler to 3B. Ian has range, athleticism and a very strong arm and moving him into the crowd we currently have in the OF is assinine.
I agree Ed,
at least that we should be less willing to trade Arias than many others. I've stopped including him in most trade proposals b/c of this possible arrangement for '09.
The trouble with it is... 2010, or whenever Andrus would come up. If MY would move from SS b/c of his relative lack of range, then 3B is the place (w/ less need for range), which could still take advantage of his quick hands and strong arm.
But if Kinsler has just moved there in '09, then you either have to send him back to 2nd in '10 (and have MY get used to 3rd while EA gets used to being a major-leaguer-- That's a lot of transition, not to mention Smoak's likely arrival) or you keep Kinsler at 3rd (which might be very good, since most of his errors are not questions of athleticism, but rather too much time to think). But if he stays at 3rd, we have the distinct possibility that Arias' bat has proven comparable with MY's (low OPS, high average) bat, and that Arias' soft glove + great range + weak arm has proven preferable to MY's soft glove + fair range + strong arm (wasted at the 2B position).
Then are we to make our favorite 16-million-dollar-man the team's Utility Infielder... in only the 2nd year of his 5-year contract?
That would take real humility on the Rangers' part to admit, and real courage on MY's part to accept...
Sorry, reverse the "humility" and "courage" (or attribute both to both) above.
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