Tuesday Morning Rangers Notes: All Tazawa, All The Time
Joey Matschulat
The scouts just can't seem to make up their minds on Junichi Tazawa (pictured above).A (very) early morning question for you all, should you choose to answer it: How did this...
TOKYO (Oct. 30) -- Junichi Tazawa, a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher [...] whose fastball reaches 97 mph [...], was passed over by Japan's 12 professional teams in Thursday's amateur draft.
...turn into this...
[Tazawa] has good command of his fastball and slurve, but he lacks velocity, stamina and the ability to keep the ball down [...] at 22, Tazawa is unlikely to throw much harder than he does now; his fastball barely tops 90 mph when he is rested, and he struggled to hit 88 mph at the end of last season. (Jim Allen, ESPN.com)
...and, more recently, this?
The person I talked with suggested Tazawa's fastball is more in the 87-90 mph range. My guy indicated the fastball may hop a little higher for an inning, but tends to settle back into this average/just below average range. (Evan Grant, Dallas Morning News)
What's the explanation for this enormous disconnect in velocity readings? Is it simply a matter of Japan's radar guns being "juiced," so to speak? Is Tazawa's camp attempting to amplify his value by embellishing the scouting reports being transmitted stateside? And are the Major League sources deriding his enigmatic heater doing so with an ulterior motive in mind, that being to drive down his asking price so that he becomes just a bit more attainable?
It might be a little bit of all three. It's how the game is played both domestically and internationally. And before you flip out over Monday's big development (that is, the Texas Rangers submitting a very competitive bid to Tazawa's camp, reported by Japanese media outlets Nikkan Sports, Mainichi and Sponichi to be in the general vicinity of four years and $7 million), bear in mind two things:
● Boston remains the clear favorite to ink the alluring, if not overpowering Far East import; NPB Tracker forwards word from Japan that Tazawa is "set to sign with the Red Sox as early as December 1[st]," and even if reports of his commitment to the Red Sox are indeed a tad premature, you have to admit that the big league success of fellow countryman Daisuke Matsuzaka in Boston (whom Tazawa "idol[izes]") -- and, for that matter, the perennially competitive product the Red Sox put out on the field -- are compelling reasons to settle down in the northeast.
● Assuming that the above figures are at least somewhat accurate, does anybody really think that the Rangers would actually guarantee $7 million to an entirely unproven foreign commodity with zero professional experience to his name if he was really sporting a fastball that legitimately topped out around 89 mph? I personally doubt it, but then I've been horribly mistaken before.
The thing to remember is that movement almost always trumps velocity (a 91 mph fastball with sharp two-seam breaking action is far more difficult to make quality contact with than a straight 98 mph fastball with virtually no movement), but not many right-handers can get away with that sort of underwhelming velocity and survive long in the majors, and those that do compensate with movement (Brandon Webb, though he doesn't really throw a fastball in the conventional sense, but his power sinker usually sits in the high-80s) and command (Greg Maddux), just to name a couple of notable examples.
A brief excerpt from my November 10th report on the matter, which also featured the wildly popular YouTube video of Tazawa in action that has been sighted in countless places across the Internet since he skyrocketed to international prominence seemingly overnight:
Reputedly armed with a low-to-mid 90s fastball that has been clocked as high as 97 mph, a split-fingered fastball and a "big, old-school 12-to-6 curveball" that has evoked natural comparisons to Tim Hudson (albeit with a "better curveball," according to one unnamed team official), the 5' 11", 180-pound Tazawa would not require a posting fee to sign, but could well command a Major League deal -- which would entail committing a valuable 40-man roster spot -- and a signing bonus in excess of $5 million in order to settle on a specific stateside destination.
One anonymous scout was decidedly less bullish in his assessment of Tazawa, who has pitched at what David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently described as being roughly equivalent to "perhaps A-ball or borderline Double-A ball," with Braves general manager Frank Wren likening it more to college-level competition: "His fastball is 88 to 93 [mph] ... he has a forkball, a curve, but the command of his fastball is so-so. His lower body is stiff."
[...] The consensus around the game appears to be that Tazawa's talent level is comparable to that of a first-round pick in MLB's amateur draft, but a bidding war could conceivably send his price soaring into Pedro Alvarez territory and beyond -- a princely sum that not even affluent clubs like Boston and New York would indiscriminately meet without careful deliberation beforehand.
Not only have we now reached (and surpassed) Pedro Alvarez territory (Alvarez signed a restructured deal worth $6.4 million with the Pirates back on September 22nd), but all four teams that have reportedly submitted offers for Tazawa's services -- Texas, Boston, Atlanta and Seattle -- have offered Major League contracts, which would necessitate his immediate placement on some lucky team's 40-man roster.
That wouldn't be a huge deal for the Rangers at the moment, particularly given that Willie Eyre presently occupies one of those roster spots and would represent no great loss if he were designated for assignment tomorrow (though Texas presumably saw something worthwhile in him to deem him a worthwhile addition in the first place), but 40-man roster space is already tight enough without having to essentially write off a precious roster spot for as long as it takes Tazawa to develop into a pitcher capable of surviving in the majors.
That could be late 2009. That could be 2010 or 2011. That could also be never. Your guess is as good as mine.
● MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan writes that Rangers general manager Jon Daniels continues to insist upon Clay Buchholz being included in any deal he completes with the Red Sox, and it's becoming increasingly clear that this deadlock will likely not be broken until next month's winter meetings in Las Vegas. There doesn't appear to be a quick resolution in sight.
● According to Melvin Roman (the representative of free-agent infielder Ramon Vazquez), the Diamondbacks have offered his 32-year-old client a one-year deal with an attached second-year team option. At least one other club has offered Vazquez more money than Arizona, though it's unclear at this point which club that is.
● Texas remains "open" to dealing either Kevin Millwood and/or Vicente Padilla, per FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.
Is anybody honestly surprised that the Bowl Championship Series is once again an unmitigated mess?
Reader Comments (6)
My interest in Tazawa has waxed and is now waning. He'd be nice to add, but if the $7M figure is accurate I think it's a bit too much. If they feel the movement on his pitches will lead to a back of the rotation or late innings guy it might be nice to have him, but I'd rather it be for less money. He'd certainly need all of his options, looking at the video.
I really don't know if the guy has what it takes or not. What I do know is that one team that is already loaded with pitching is trying to add more pitching through international FAs and the FA market. Another team appears to have showed up a little late to the party - maybe too late to get their man.
I know that I have to be patient, as there is still a lot of time this winter. However, I really hope the 'other' team continues to remain very agressive in its pursuit of pitching talent, and does not end up sitting on its hands waiting on the farm because it couldn't swing a deal for ML-ready pitching.
I wonder if what we're seeing is just baseball's version of what happens around prom time. Of course, everyone wants to go with the hot girl, but she's only going to go with the flashy guy who's got a nice car. Boston is like the high school quarterback with all-American good looks and a Trans Am (do they make those any more), and Texas is like the nerd who wears Star Wars shirts, has acne, and goes to Dungeons and Dragons conventions. It's just not a fair competition.
The other thing I wonder is whether this kid wants to play in Boston because he wants to learn from Dice-K - and he would have at least 1 guy on the team with whom he can speak his mother tongue. I know that might seem a small thing (the language), but when I put myself in his shoes, I have to think that it would actually make a big difference to have someone else on the team with which you can freely communicate. And that reminds me that for awhile I've been meaning to ask this question to you guys:
What's the status of Aki Otsuka? Has he recovered from his surgery? Is he throwing again? Or has he pretty much retired?
If Aki is healthy and can do what he did before getting his ouchie, he'd be a great guy to bring back.
In regards to Tazawa, my main concern is not the money, but the roster spot that he'd be taking up. I'm not really sure he's good enough to warrant clogging up our roster and possibly preventing us from making certain trades or FA signings this offseason.
I'd love to add to our talent pool, even at the cost of 7mm - but the 40 trumps all, as they say.
NO!!!! He is not worth a ML deal!
I understand that the language barrier between Juan Dominguez and many of his teammates was quite significant and contributed to what was widely perceived as irresponsibility. I'm sure the Red Sox would supply him with a full-time interpreter if necessary, but you would think that having a chance to someday pitch alongside his idol -- Matsuzaka -- would be a pretty compelling intangible factor in his decision.
Of course, Tazawa will start in the minors and won't be around Daisuke, but one would think he would receive an invitation to big league spring training, and it honestly wouldn't surprise me if Boston tried to cash in a bit prematurely on their investment by giving him some innings at some point in 2009, even if he's proven that he's not completely ready.