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« Wednesday Morning Rangers Notes: Thanksgiving Eve Edition | Main | Tuesday Morning Rangers Notes: All Tazawa, All The Time »
Tuesday
25Nov2008

Kevin Goldstein Q&A: Send In Your Questions!

Was Julio Borbon's AFL performance a sign of things to come in '09? Let's ask Kevin!Prospect guru Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus has agreed to do a Rangers-specific Q&A here at Baseball Time in Arlington. Please bombard me with questions you want Kevin to answer. You can submit those questions in this thread or via e-mail. The answers will be ready to go after the Thanksgiving holiday.

Thanks.

[Joey's Update: Jason and I have agreed to run a concurrent promotion tying into this very special holiday prospect Q&A.

Whoever submits the best question for Kevin -- we'll ask him which reader-submitted question he deemed the best -- will receive a free copy of Baseball Prospectus 2009, now available for pre-order on Amazon.com and slated for release on February 16th, 2009. We'll ship a copy to the winner once we have it in our grubby little hands.

If you opt to submit your question in this thread and haven't yet registered for a BBTiA account, make sure that you include your real e-mail address (i.e. one you can actually access). We can't send you something if we don't know how to contact you.

Thanks for your interest, and good luck!]

Reader Comments (39)

Question for Kevin;
If the Rangers get close to pulling off a big deal for an established star pitcher, who am I not including from the Rangers long list of pitching prospects?

Thanks
KT

November 25, 2008 at 10:26 AM | Unregistered CommenterKT

If you had to bet a thousand bucks on one pitcher in the system to anchor the Rangers rotation in coming years, who would it be - Main, Feliz, Holland, Perez, or someone else?

Thanks,

James
Stamford, Texas

November 25, 2008 at 10:58 AM | Unregistered CommenterJames

A knock on the rangers has been there inability to convert a prospect (esp. pitching prospect) into a viable contibutor to THEIR big league ball club, What ingredient has been missing from the development of the Rangers local talent that prevents them from getting over this crucial hump? Why has it been missing?

November 25, 2008 at 11:55 AM | Unregistered CommenterJonathan

First of all, let me say it's awesomely cool of Kevin Goldstein to do this.

My question:

Kevin, what do you think of Taylor Teagarden's offensive game? We already know about his impressive defensive reputation and he had quite a September showing in the majors this season, but I question whether he'll be able to maintain similar success long-term because of his inconsistent numbers in the minors, along with the question of his durability. Do you think he'll continue to hit well enough to justify starting him over the potential offensive stars Max Ramirez and Jarrod Saltalamacchia?

Thanks for your time.

November 25, 2008 at 11:59 AM | Registered CommenterJon Page

Since most of us can't see prospects in action, what metrics do you consider to most accurately predict future success for pitchers and hitters?

November 25, 2008 at 12:02 PM | Unregistered CommenterBrandon B

From: "Ron" Daniels or "John" Washington

As a team trying to build a rotation in '09 (especially if we're able to meet our goal of trading out vets for 2 more unproven, high-ceiling pitchers), should we use our bullpen differently from a team with a proven rotation (i.e. should we make the pen a proving ground for multiple "long relievers" trying out for the 2010 rotation)?

November 25, 2008 at 12:38 PM | Unregistered CommenterMichael Gleason

Definitely ask the question in the Borbon pic caption.

Also:

What positional prospect do you like best after the usual suspects of Smoak, Borbon, Vallejo, Lemon, Engel Beltre?

Predict Golson's near-future career.

November 25, 2008 at 1:31 PM | Unregistered CommenterHightower

What would be a good return for Gerald Laird?

November 25, 2008 at 1:35 PM | Unregistered CommenterRob M.

Thanks for taking our questions. Here's my shot:

1. Whom do you see manning 3B this season, and whom do you see as the Rangers long term choice for 3B over the next, say, 5 seasons?

2. All agree that the bullpen was abysmal at times during the season. What does Texas need to do to improve their bullpen so that they can survive 2009?

November 25, 2008 at 2:53 PM | Unregistered CommenterJDolla$

We've heard over and over about the improved farm system that the Rangers have been able to build. But if there's a positional weakness, where would you say it is? Corner OF? RP? 3B?

November 25, 2008 at 3:07 PM | Unregistered CommenterMatt K

Already posted one, but I'll post another. Many thanks to Kevin for agreeing to do this with we Rangers nuts, he's one of my favorite baseball writers as is, and this only reinforces that feeling.

Kevin,

What is your view on the best way to immerse a pitching prospect into the big leagues? Should the Rangers try to handle Neftali Feliz et. al. like the Dodgers did with Chad Billingsley (use him as a reliever/spot starter and then transition him over to the rotation full-time), or do you prefer just sticking them in the rotation and letting them sink or swim right away?

Thanks,

James
Stamford, Texas

November 25, 2008 at 3:18 PM | Unregistered CommenterJames

I hear alot about salty and max ram being rumored in trades, but imo i would hold onto tt and salty and trade the other two. Who would you project to have the best career of max, tt and salty?

November 25, 2008 at 3:41 PM | Unregistered CommenterJared

Thanks for a Rangers' session.

Question: Seattle has asked for permission to interview Rick Adair, the Rangers' minol league pitching coordinator, for one of their positions. With the ascent of the Rangers' system, featuring Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz, and maybe eight other pitching prospects, what is your assessment of Adair's impact? Would Texas lose and Seattle gain in a meaningful way if Rick departs to the M's?

November 25, 2008 at 3:59 PM | Unregistered CommenterEd C

With the current influx in trades, the draft and international signings, has there been a paradigm shift in the Rangers philosophy of positional player development away from power hitting masher of the corner outfield and infield positions towards a more all around based approach that focuses on the key up the middle defensive instead as a greater priority?

And as a follow up, is this emphasis on the up the middle positions a by-product of the club wanting to improve the overall team defense or concerted effort to develop positions that seems to have high positional scarcity in the league and therefore greater team and league wide value? Or simply put, is the build up at SS, CF, 2B and C a random occurrence or an effort to maximize the value of positional players in general from the Ranger's minor league system?

November 25, 2008 at 4:10 PM | Unregistered CommenterBen at UNT

Aside from the focus on the draft, what is the biggest change you've seen from the Rangers organization that should make the most impact at the ML level?

Who is most responsible for that change?

November 25, 2008 at 5:06 PM | Unregistered Commenterred3biggs

When do you think it is reasonable for the Rangers to expect to be in the playoffs? When the Rangers make the playoffs who do you project to be their starters and will Ron Washington still be the manager?

November 25, 2008 at 5:18 PM | Registered CommenterIndy "A"

If the redsox end up signing mark 'i want more money' texiera that means they will need to trade mike loweel and the ranger have a need there so we pakage salty with another prospect and get bucholz and lowell.and am i the only one that thinks we need to trade padilla and millwood and not trade for a ace pitcher but instead be patient

November 25, 2008 at 6:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterGarrett

Hey Kevin, thanks for taking our questions.

I'm wondering about Wilfredo Boscan. With all the excitement around Feliz, Holland, Perez, and now Main, Boscan seems to be flying under the radar. Looking at his K/BB and ground ball rates I can't help but drool. From everything I've read on him he seems to have a phenomenal work ethic which should allow him to maximize his talent. Is this guy legit? Is it too soon to tell? Thanks, and have a great holiday.

November 25, 2008 at 6:57 PM | Unregistered CommenterEricTheHalfBee

Kevin,
In regards to the Rangers being unable to produce good major league pitchers, do you think that it would be a good idea for the organization to start teaching a featured pitch (such as the White Sox do with the cutter, thus making John Danks the pitcher he is today)? It would seem that if we told all of our young pitchers that they were going to develop a reliable changeup, it would improve their chances of reaching the majors and being successful. Not to mention that throwing the changeup instead of the slider would put a lot less strain on their arm.
Do you know if the Rangers are currently doing this or have any plans to?
Thank you,
Jeromy

November 25, 2008 at 7:54 PM | Unregistered CommenterJeromy

One more question for the contest:

What one Rangers player will you predict for the "out of nowhere success season" in 2009, and why?

November 25, 2008 at 8:24 PM | Unregistered CommenterJDolla$

Thanks for taking questions, Kevin. Here's mine:

During the World Series, Jim Callis opined, "The Rangers have the best farm system in baseball." Not too long after, you commented that the Rangers' system is "loaded," and that the Rangers are more likely to be "a slow burn as opposed to a sudden Rays-like leap forward" in the AL West ~ predicting that Texas could possibly contend in 2010.

It's impossible to ignore the fact that the Rangers have a ton of prospects down on the farm ~ but it's also impossible to deny that Texas' fatal flaw is and has *always* been a lack of elite starting pitching. And with observers in the know projecting Neftali Feliz as an elite closer, Derek Holland as a number-two starter, and Michael Main as something of a question mark, it doesn't seem as if there's a clear-cut ace ready to emerge from the Rangers' minor-league ranks in the next few years.

Perhaps I'm too much of a skeptic, but how possible do you think it is that the Rangers' farm system is full of sound and fury, signifying nothing? Is this another case of tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow for Texas, such that 2012 will find the Rangers loitering just outside of contention, dealing with a surplus of middle-of-the-rotation pitching, and still searching for that elusive ace ~ praying that phenom Martin Perez can finally put all their yesterdays to rest? Do the Rangers need to pull the trigger on a blockbuster deal for a legitimate ace sooner rather than later if they hope to play for a World Series crown in the next five years?

OK, so that's more than one question ~ but you get the idea.

Thanks again.

November 25, 2008 at 8:50 PM | Unregistered CommenterSnark

Question: Would any of the top Rangers pitching prospects from the past (Danks, Volquez, Kevin Brown, Juan Dominguez) rank top 5 in the current system?

November 25, 2008 at 10:30 PM | Unregistered CommenterClinton H

What was it that you saw in Neftali Feliz that lead you to call his breakout year, before it happened?

November 26, 2008 at 7:53 AM | Unregistered Commentertricer

All

Great questions!! Keep them coming.

November 26, 2008 at 9:09 AM | Registered CommenterJason Parks

How do Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz compare to Clay Buchholz and Phil Hughes? Do you expect Holland and Feliz to struggle at the MLB level like Buchholz and Hughes?

November 26, 2008 at 9:54 AM | Unregistered CommenterBrandon B

(Q#2-- If you have room for a 2nd from each of us...)

Specifically: If we could get Max Ramirez regular at-bats, but not much time as C, would that be more or less detrimental to his development than as the starting C at AAA? (Would you give him more experience at 3B, to make a place for his bat in our MLB line-up?)

Generally: Which is more detrimental to a player's development, staying in AAA too long, or getting only irregular playing time at the Major League level?

November 26, 2008 at 11:22 AM | Unregistered CommenterMichael Gleason

Everyone keeps touting Engel Beltre as a 5 tool prospect. However, he has the worst K/BB ratio in the entire organization. Does that spell doomsday for him?

November 26, 2008 at 11:34 AM | Registered Commenterrodcarew

One more:

Let's say disaster strikes and Texas can't trade any of their catchers. What the hades happens next year? Who plays where (both position and level)?

November 26, 2008 at 1:08 PM | Unregistered CommenterJDolla$

Neftali Feliz -- Is he going to develop the breaking/offspeed stuff to ever be a starter or is it much more likely he ends up in a ML bullpen?? If the later, is it time to sell-high on him soon, given the hype over him??

November 26, 2008 at 3:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterMike Hodson

OK, I've thought of a couple more questions I'd love to see Kevin answer, time permitting:

(1) Seems as if most of the time, folks ask you which prospect in a system is most likely to succeed, or which of a group of top prospects is the best bet to make a significant impact at the major-league level. So let me throw you a change-up: when you look at the top prospects on the Rangers' farm, which guy do you think is the most likely to flame out spectacularly ~ to utterly defy expectations of his success, to fail to make an impact despite having all the talent (or drive, or whatever) in the world? And why?

(2) In my previous (long-winded) comment, I asked if the Rangers "need to pull the trigger on a blockbuster deal for a legitimate ace sooner rather than later if they hope to play for a World Series crown in the next five years?" Following up on that question ~ or, hey, independent from it if you prefer: Please give us one example of a "blockbuster" deal" that you think the Rangers could feasibly pull off this season that would put them in the driver's seat on the road to serious, championship-caliber contention?

November 26, 2008 at 11:30 PM | Unregistered CommenterSnark

One more for tonight, and this one's critically important:

Ginger or Mary Ann?

November 26, 2008 at 11:33 PM | Unregistered CommenterSnark

Kevin:

Give us your prediction of Josh Hamilton's career season, and when will that occur?

November 27, 2008 at 10:33 AM | Unregistered CommenterRemarks52

Thanks for answering our questions Kevin.

Who do you think will be the most pleasant surprise among our farm system this season (much like Derek Holland last)?

November 27, 2008 at 2:28 PM | Unregistered CommenterRobert Bolyard

In Spokane, catcher Doug Hogan had 15 passed balls this season, yet he is continually given high marks for his defensive prowess. Do you have any insight to help explain this disconnect?

November 27, 2008 at 10:38 PM | Registered CommenterTrip Somers

If the Rangers had been successful in their attempt to sign Michael Inoa to a contract this past year where would he rank among our current pitching prospects? Would it have been considered unfair for us to add yet another pitching prospect for other clubs to be jealous of?

November 27, 2008 at 11:44 PM | Unregistered CommenterJake

If you'll take a 3rd Q, Kevin...
Do you see TX as the 3rd team that makes Peavy a Cub? What do you think of Murphy to SD (to get the Cubs Gerut), Golson to CC (to make up for their loss of Pie to SD) Littleton (to audition as SD's closer), Benoit for the Cubs' pen, and Catalanotto to help balance salaries, and be the Cubs Back-up 1B/5th OF ... all for Vitters and Marquis, with or without including Mathis, Mendoza & Metcalf to SD for Kouz?

November 28, 2008 at 1:55 AM | Unregistered CommenterMichael Gleason

The above is assuming SD & the Cubs work out the rest (eg Peavy to the Cubs; and Marshall, Fontenot(?) & Pie to SD)

November 28, 2008 at 2:11 AM | Unregistered CommenterMichael Gleason

Kevin,

Thanks for taking the time to do this chat. I'm not sure the best way to ask my questions, as it has a follow-up, but here goes:

(1) From the Rangers starting pitchers prospects who seem likely to be among the organization's Top-30 prospecfts (e.g. Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Michael Main, Martin Perez, Wilfredo Boscan, Neil Ramirez, Blake Beavan, Wilmer Font, Eric Hurley, Omar Poveda, Robbie Ross, Kasey Kiker, Tommy Hunter, Tim Murphy, Joe Wieland, and Thomas Diamond), what's a realistic number that will actually become average or better Major League starting pitchers?

(2) Among the guys I just listed, almost all of them will graduate or depart from the system in the next five years. On top of that group, there are several other starting pitchers that might break out soon (e.g. Kyle O'Campo, Miguel De Los Santos, Carlos Pimentel, Kennil Gomez). Furthermore, there could be "Graduates" of the system in the next five years who will also be drafted in the next five years. So, is there a chance that the Rangers could be holding on to more future Major League pitchers than there are on a Major League staff? If so, is it time (or possible) to trade from their depth in order to add a couple of guys who rank among the best pitching prospects in all of baseball?

Thanks,

YourNameHere
Dallas, TX

November 29, 2008 at 12:47 AM | Unregistered CommenterYourNameHere

Overwhelming response, guys! Obviously, Kevin will not be able to answer all the submitted questions, but I will try to get as many answered as possible.

Many, many, many thanks!

November 29, 2008 at 12:46 PM | Registered CommenterJason Parks

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