Texas Trade Wind Anemometer: Saturday Morning Edition
Joey Matschulat
Kevin Millwood (pictured) is reportedly drawing league-wide trade interest. - Samara Pearlstein/MVN.comOn the heels of Jayson Stark's curious Thursday free-agent speculation (which is probably of little relevance to the Texas Rangers anyway, given that they're evidently working against an owner-imposed payroll cap and presently appear to have all the financial flexibility of General Motors), here are a few early-morning tidbits that may or may not merit close monitoring going forward:
● Barring a dramatic plunge in the asking prices of free-agent third basemen Casey Blake and Joe Crede, the Rangers will not have the available capital to make a legitimate run at either (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
[Not even Crede? Wow, times really ARE tough.]
● The Padres may be willing to trade third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff to clear room for a return to the hot corner for talented 24-year-old outfielder Chase Headley, but Texas doesn't seem particularly interested in the former and doesn't believe the latter is available (Sullivan)
[Fun fact: Kouzmanoff has drawn more than 32 walks in a season just once -- 44 walks at Low-A Lake County in 2004 -- and posted an unyieldingly poor 3.6 percent walk rate in 668 plate appearances with the Padres in 2008. It's true that pitcher-friendly Petco Park has been a drag on his overall numbers, but there's something distinctly Kevin Mench-ian about the sharp decline he has endured in terms of being able to consistently induce bases on balls, and that, coupled with his absolutely horrendous second half -- .241/.272/.422 in 287 PA -- and unexplainable flip-flopping lefty/righty splits, is plenty enough cause for concern.
Want to take a shot at Headley, who was tabbed by industry publication Baseball America as the game's 32nd-best prospect before the 2008 season and produced modestly well in his rookie campaign? Then get ready to pony up one of the heralded Big Three -- Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland or Michael Main -- and some other goodies just to keep Padres general manager Kevin Towers on the line.]
● The Reds might make third baseman Edwin Encarnacion available, but Texas isn't enthralled by his shoddy glovework, astutely recalling that miserable defense at the hot corner was one of the team's biggest Achilles' heels in 2008 (Sullivan)
[And shortstop, and second base, and first base, and...]
● Free-agent infielder Ramon Vazquez has fielded offers from the Diamondbacks and another unnamed team; he has apparently not backed off his demands of a multi-year contract (Nick Piecoro, Arizona Republic)
[I've been trying to decide whether Vazquez's dramatic drop-off in offensive output late in the 2008 season was an statistical aberration or a harbinger of things to come; legendary hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo has a definite history of resurrecting one-time fringe big leaguers and developing them into useful players, so I suppose it would be silly to bet against Rudy, but I don't have a real great feeling about Vazquez away from Jaramillo's watchful eye.]
● Finally, the Braves, Dodgers and Mets are believed to be among teams that have inquired about veteran right-handers Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla, both of whom have one guaranteed year left on their multi-year contracts and could help a contending team; Millwood has a limited no-trade clause (Jon Heyman, SI.com)
[Dave Cameron pointed out at FanGraphs that virtually all of the notable signings and trades that have been made thus far this off-season have been in the buyer's favor; the market has noticeably shifted, and it would be reckless to assume that either Millwood or Padilla would net much more than a B-level prospect or two individually.
I will say this: if Millwood or Padilla are indeed moved in what essentially amounts to a salary dump (see also: Nick Swisher), it will be a move that financially enables something else. Texas won't make that sort of trade just for the hell of it.]
Chew on that.
Reader Comments (16)
Joey's up even earlier than I am (or he just stayed up really late last night) !
The idea of moving Millwood really appeals to me, and not only for the sake of a salary dump. He had 9 quality starts last year, by my recollection, and 4 of them came in April. My feeling is that even if he can get over the injury hump that has plagued him the past 2 seasons (and that's a big "if"), he has shown little of late to suggest he is anything other than a shell of his former self. I would think that a return to the NL would do him wonders. Isn't Atlanta looking for some pitching? Why not try to trade him for Jo Jo - we could even throw in one of our 40'ers like Mendoza or Gabbard to boot. Not sure Atlanta would do that, but it seems to me that's the kind of thing that would work. As much as I hate to say this, I think they should probably keep ol' Vinnie. Unless they can land Sheets, of course.
Regarding the speculation about third base, I wonder if perhaps JD will consider trading one of the catchers for a 3B prospect, if the pitching possibilities are as dire as they seem to be. What do you think, Joey?
My opinion is that if Davis and Cruz are as advertised, and produce like they did last year, and everyone stays healthy (Kinsler/Murphy/Young/Hamilton), the team can afford to have a below league average 3B. Metcalf or Duran would be fine for me. I think Duran can do better than he did last year if he gets more playing time, and I don't think Metcalf is as bad as some make him out to be. One question - which of those two is better defensively - and is either significantly better defensively?
On another note, I can't believe I'm going to root for OU tonight. It feels so very wrong.
I just looked at Reyes' numbers from last season. I didn't realize he went down the toilet so badly. He's got some talent, and maybe he was just experiencing an adjustment, but it would appear that a straight-up Millwood for Reyes trade would work, if both parties were interested. In other words, with a stinker like that, if Texas really wanted him, and Atlanta really wanted Millwood, Texas probably wouldn't have to throw in anyone else. Maybe we could get them to give us Boyer, too!
Of course, you'd love to get someone like Nolasco, but from what I've read, I don't think Florida wants to take on any 12 million dollar a year contracts anytime soon.
Looking over the Braves roster, I was also intrigued by Mike Gonzalez. He's not a bad closer - I wonder whether Soriano's arm is okay for next season, and if so, if Atlanta would consider moving Gonzalez.
Just some food for thought...
Joey never sleeps - he just sports rests.
Re: Millwood: if you look at peripherals, Millwood actually wasn't that bad this year (as was discussed/debated in this fanpost over on LSB last night), and comes out ahead of Padilla in some key categories. Perhaps most notably Millwood's FIP (which takes into account not just defense, but K and BB rates, as well as HR's) was 4.02, a full run lower than both his ERA (5.07) and Padilla's FIP (5.03). It's really not much of a stretch to say Millwood actually pitched as well as, if not better than Padilla in 2008, but was simply unlucky and let down by his defense.
So I wouldn't be in too big a hurry to dump Millwood, myself - he's no ace, but he's really not one our problems, either. That's not to say I wouldn't like to see him traded if the return was justifiable (I'd love to free up some of the payroll he's taking up, along with a rotation slot for a young starter) but I don't really think we should be trying to trade him at this point in time (same goes for Padilla). As to what a justifiable return might look like for one of Padilla/Millwood, I think I'll defer to Joey or someone else there (I'm notoriously terrible at estimating trade value) but I'm pretty sure we'd want to look for more than a 1-1 Millwood for Reyes-type swap.
Oh, and another, unrelated thought: don't I remember reading back at the trade deadline ATL saying they wouldn't talk to us about Mike Gonzalez unless we started with Josh Hamilton? Joey?
Well, I certainly don't claim to be a wizard when it comes to determining trade value. That's another reason why I cut JD a break - because he is only human. Some of his terrible deals actually looked good on paper at the time.
I'm not a big stat guy (obviously), and I do respect those who can crunch the numbers to support a case for a guy. My thoughts are more based on what I recall watching with my own two eyes (and except for a period of about 3 weeks when I was in Mexico, I believe I watched just about every one of Millwood's starts). He started the season looking good, got injured, and was pretty dicey on his return. I remember a few games near the end where he was just absolutely lit up, and I can also vaguely remember a few "big" games when we were still sort of in it (before Murphy & Kinsler got hurt), and where Millwood didn't do his job. But hey - if he can return to his 2006 form - sure he'd be an important cog to this team. And maybe I'm just "misremembering," as ol' Roger would say.
I suppose the best thing for Texas would be for him to have a dominant 1st half, and then we could actually get some value for him at the deadline. Trading him now would be a "sell low" proposition, I imagine.
It'll be interesting to see what transpires.
Why is there even a discussion about whether or not to trade Millwood? There's no good reason to keep him around. He's expensive, old, ineffective, injury-prone, and one spot in the rotation that a developing young starter or a decent free agent could occupy.
I understand needing veteran leadership and innings eaters on a young team, but the guy hasn't given this team front of the rotation innings in two seasons. And this team is going nowhere this year, so what's the point in keeping him around even if he does stay healthy. Sell low, sell now. I would trade him and Padilla for some decent nacho cheese and fresh chips.
How 'bout this rotation Harrison, Hurley, McCarthy, Nippert, Feldman? And just fill it in as they drop. I hate Kevin Millwood, but love nachos. Know that.
I always stay up late, and the time stamp on this comment is proof of that.
JD: Well, I guess Texas COULD make a catcher-for-third baseman swap...I just don't believe it's all that likely. I'm not necessarily convinced anymore that Andrus will be the club's starting shortstop on Opening Day '10 (though I still think Mike Young will eventually make that move, it's becoming increasingly apparent that he'll require ample coaxing first, and if Andrus isn't perceived by the organization as being truly ready to handle the big leagues, I'm betting the Rangers don't run the risk of upsetting their purported franchise face by asking him to prematurely move for a player who could use more minor league seasoning), but the long-term "solution" at the hot corner is still around here somewhere, and I have to think it would take a pretty compelling offer to get Texas to employ their reserve of catchers to address an area of the team NOT related to pitching.
Jon: Yes, your recollection of that report is correct.
So obviously this has been addressed ad nauseum, but there's no chance Blalock will ever play third again because of his shoulder?
Also, in regards to a trade, this was discussed on another board... but how much interest would the Rangers have in a Millwood or Padilla to the Mets for a combination of Aaron Heilman and Scott Shoenweis(sp)? Granted Heilman hasn't succeeded in a starters role thus far, and he wants a opportunity to start... but I'm wondering if this isn't just general fallout from back-to-back collapses being blamed on their bullpen.
Finally, I just don't see a peaceful resolution to the Michael Young situation outside of him eventually being dealt. I think the Rangers should approach him about the move, and if he isn't willing to do that, you being to think about dealing him. Granted it might seem blasphemous now, but the Tigers don't have a viable option at SS and also don't have a catcher. If you can manipulate a trade that nets you Rick Porcello in return that involves Laird and Young (would the Tigers swallow that much money?) , then why can't the Rangers survive with some combination of Arias/Duran at SS this season? The estimated time of contention is '10, Porcello is yet another top pitching prospect that could well start the season in the rotation, and with Josh Hamilton and to a lesser extent Ian Kinsler being viewed as the faces of the franchise, you can argue this would be the best time to avoid a PR backlash.
Thanks for weighing in, Robert...I'll go point by point:
- All indications appear to be that Blalock's career at third base is over -- there was some talk from Ken Rosenthal a month or two back that he was going to undertake a vigorous off-season training program in the hope of returning to the hot corner, but that plan appears to be dead. His throwing shoulder is shot.
- If Texas does pull off a Millwood or Padilla deal to the Mets, I could see easily see Heilman being included, because we already know he's a player of interest to the Rangers...it might, however, take some additional talent coming from the Rangers (again, Poveda could conceivably come into play here if he's not included in another deal first), because I still don't foresee Texas netting much more than a B-level prospect for either guy unless they take on a lot of their remaining salaries, and if you do that, you're pretty much negating any payroll relief you hope to gain from such a deal, which is presumably what the Rangers would be seeking if they chose to trade either one in the first place.
Again, they're not going to trade either of these guys for the hell of it. And if it does happen, you can expect to see the Rangers make an aggressive push for a high-profile free agent, because freeing up payroll space and then not doing anything productive with it is a sure-fire way to enhance fan optimism and drive ticket sales! Well, not really.
- Michael Young isn't going anywhere. Rick Porcello is not available.
Joey,
MaxRam came up as a 3rd baseman, no? If he shared time there with Duran, and was available to catch behind Salty, who shared time at C with TT, and shared DH time with Hank until we traded Hank (because Smoak eventually pushes Davis to DH,... isn't it conceivable that this isn't the time to trade any of our 3 young C's?
If we trade Laird, Padilla & Byrd now, and later Millwood & Blalock (after they show their value to a playoff-bound team by the ASB, we could have 3 more established C's as valuable as CDavis on our hands, and deal one once Andrus is ready to push MY to 3rd...
Just to put that possibility in practical terms: If MaxRam could re-orient himself to 3B, and keep practicing at Catcher, in case we ever need a 3rd stringer, and we play everyone else in a way that gives them all at-bats, and maintains their abilities at 2 positions to maximize their trade value, in case we decide to trade more than Hank...
For now: Play
MaxRam 5/6 of the games at 3B;
CDavis 4/6 at 1B; 1/6 at 3B;
HankB 2/6 at 1B; 3/6 at DH;
Salty 3/6 at DH; 2/6 at C;
TT 4/6 at C;
By the ASB trade Hank to a contender, and bring up Smoak:
Play
Smoak 5/6 at 1B;
Davis 1/6 at 1B; 1/6 at 3B; 3/6 at DH;
MaxRam 5/6 at 3B;
Salty 3/6 DH; 2/6 C
TT 4/6 C
All 4 big hitters get consistent at-bats, and only the C (known more for his fielding) who needs the most rest, gets fewer at-bats.
Our defense is probably atrocious for one more year, while MaxRam either regains his form at 3B, or at least maintains his trade value, establishing his reputation as a MLB hitter (DH and back-up C, while adding 3B or back-up 3B to his resume). If he's good, he sticks in 2010, if he's not,we trade him or CDavis for a top-notch pitcher (once each has proven his value) and Smoak has risen. In that case, bring up Andrus and move MY over to 3B, and have all set positions (no more position-sharing) in 2010.
Feasible? I haven't checked MaxRam's fielding % as a Minor League 3B, but so far, of all our trade & internal options, only Mike Lowell and Kouz have a GOOD fielding %.
So if someone's gotta learn on the job, why not have Max pick up where he left off?
I know this idea flies in the face of my agreement w/ your urging the Rangers to make defense a priority, but, as long as MY is staying at SS in '09, 3B is bound to be messy for one more year anyway.
How about "productively messy"?
Michael:
I'll weigh in, for what it's worth. The 3rd base situation is a mess, and I'm not sure what the solution is. It seems like defense has to be part of the equation, though, and I'm not sure they have anyone in their upper levels now who can hold down that position with any defensive prowess. Not that Hank was ever a wizard over there, but he was at least good. One thing I've read - I think Joey wrote about this recently - is that perhaps Kinsler will be the one to move to 3rd, seeing he does have a strong arm and better range, and Young would just move back to second, where he'd be good. But like Joey has said, that probably won't happen until 2010, since Andrus is likely not going to be in Arlington this year, barring some unforseen catastrophic injury.
Unless either guy really progresses, from everything I've read, both Salty & Max are headed to the DH or 1B role at some point in the future. With Smoak likely to man 1st in the near future, that means Davis will probably be the full-time DH. If so, then that relegates guys like Max and Salty back to C, which isn't so attractive considering their lack of defensive ability. All that leads me to believe that they will both be traded and the C job will go to Teagarden, a guy who has shown he can play D. It may not happen this offseason - since they might be selling low on Salty - but then again it might. I suppose we're about to see in the next month or so, as teams begin signing guys and we see where players like Varitek wind up.
I do like your creativity, though.
Thanks JD$,
I keep coming back to that realization:
a) We're going to have to be creative to solve the 3B question;
b) It's going to involve a learning curve for some to become staples in our 2010 line-up, and for others to maximize their trade value before then;
c) I'd prefer that development happen more this year than next.
Cheers,
9G
Alright, I haven't got MaxRam's Fielding % as a 3B, but when you see his batting line WHEN PLAYING 3B, you won't care how well he plays the field!
As 3B 1.000 1.000 2.667 3.667 1.000 33.3% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0%
He's batting 1.000!
His on-base %? 1.000!
His slugging%? 3.667!
1/3 of his at-bats were home-runs!
The other 2/3 of his at-bats were doubles!
Granted, 3 at-bats is a small sample size, but ...
He was obviously as happy as my glasses are rosey. Can't we make him this year's project at 3B?
With regard to MaxRam moving back to third base: I read in a Scout.com piece some time back that his move to third base was only experimental, that he was a catcher at heart, and that he ended up hating the new position. He was quickly placed back behind the plate
Kudos for the creativity, but it's not going to happen.
UPDATE: Found the piece in question:
Thanks Joey,
I hadn't seen this last comment of yours at
http://www.bbtia.com/home/2008/11/22/texas-trade-wind-anemometer-saturday-morning-edition.html#comments
before promoting the Max at 3B idea further today.
Still, I wonder if he would feel the same if it meant a guaranteed spot in Arlington. I wonder if he and CD would be willing to share 3B with each other while Davis shared 1B with Blalock, Blalock shared DH with Salty, and Salty shared C with Max Ram and Tea (who got the lion's share behind the plate), if it meant they all played 5/6 of the games, getting regular at-bats. Before they become superstars, let's test their character while developing and sorting out their skills.
And if we can get a pitcher (such as Sanchez from SF or Sonnestine from TB) by including Hank in a deal, then it's all the easier to give the 3C's ALL their at-bats (while sharing 1B,3B, & DH with Davis, and C with each other).
Again-- I am only recommending this for this FINAL YEAR of development/rebuilding.