Wes Littleton's 40-man roster spot could be in jeopardy. - Samara Pearlstein/MVN.comSeeing as how both Mike Hindman and Scott Lucas have already published excellent rundowns of the Texas Rangers' 40-man roster situation and examined in detail whom the organization is most likely to protect from the Rule 5 Draft (scheduled for December 11th), I thought it might be enlightening to take a closer look at the most plausible candidates for removal, rather than addition, in anticipation of today's roster finalization deadline.

First, an updated look at the Rangers' 40-man roster (pulled from the BBTiA Roster page), which presently comprises 37 players; 2008 salaries and Major League service time accrued through the end of the 2007 season are included, as are points of origin (i.e. draft, free agency or trade):

Minor league infielder Jose Vallejo (ranked 19th overall in the October 27th edition of the BBTiA Top 25 Prospect Rankings) is, by all accounts, a lock to be added; the 22-year-old speed demon fashioned a respectable .292/.345/.415, 42-steal campaign in 139 games split between High-A Bakersfield and Double-A Frisco in 2008, and has consistently garnered accolades for his superb glovework, rendering him an ideal candidate to break into the majors someday soon as a quality defensive utility infielder with some degree of offensive upside.

Beyond Vallejo, however, things become increasingly difficult to sort out. Outfielder John Mayberry's long-term prospects as far as emerging as an everyday big league corner outfielder aren't looking particularly bright at the moment (he's failed to meet the admittedly lofty expectations placed upon his broad shoulders as a result of being the Rangers' first-round pick in the 2005 MLB First-Year Player Draft, and also as a result of industry publication Baseball America tabbing him as the organization's fifth-best prospect before the 2007 season), but he still possesses the tape-measure home run power that so tantalized the John Hart-led front office regime during the summer of 2005, and he still possesses a decent enough chance of eventually providing some utility to the Rangers -- albeit as a 25- or 26-year-old -- that Texas isn't likely to recklessly expose him to the Rule 5 Draft after sinking so much development time into him. It's possible, but unlikely.

That leaves just the intriguing Latin American tandem of homegrown right-hander Omar Poveda and recently pilfered reliever Pedro Strop on the outside looking in as far as the most plausible candidates for selection in the Rule 5 Draft are concerned. Unfortunately, barring a trade or a designation for assignment involving one of the 37 players currently on the 40-man roster, there's only room for one of those two arms. Both are probably coin flips, at that; Poveda's brimming with talent and would probably score a top-10 ranking in some minor league systems, but also hasn't pitched above Bakersfield, and Strop could conceivably be drafted, stashed away on an enterprising club's 15-day or 60-day disabled list, and left to rehabilitate his surgically repaired elbow at extended spring training for several months before said club has to worry about activating him to its 25-man roster.

I believe most of us can agree that it would sting to lose either player over a single roster spot, so assuming that no trades are completed by the front office within the next 24 hours, let's play a quick game of "Whom should the Rangers cut so that they aren't forced to place Poveda or Strop in Rule 5 limbo?" by taking a brief look at five top candidates for subtraction from the 40-man roster, based upon their present levels of value to the organization:

Frank Catalanotto: With his disconcerting transformation from a quality walks-n'-doubles machine into a well-paid professional benchwarmer almost complete, Catalanotto's unfriendly contract -- which pays him a guaranteed $4 million in 2009, and also includes a $5 million option for 2010 with a $2 million buyout -- is a curse twice over; not only have the Rangers predictably proven incapable of finding a suitor willing to assume the considerable remaining balance on their rapidly declining player's contract (and willing to give up something of tangible value, as well as a roster spot, for that privilege), but there also appears to be some reluctance on the part of the Rangers to admit that he's a sunk cost and simply cut him loose.

The end result? A 40-man roster albatross who ostensibly could still offer some value to a team unconcerned with his defensive shortcomings and thirsting for a reliable pinch-hitter, but who probably won't get that opportunity -- or not yet, at least. Texas may well trade Catalanotto and some cash for a Michael Hernandez-type bounty (and I'm using the term "bounty" very, very loosely here) at some point in the next two months, but it likely won't happen in time to open up a roster spot for Poveda or Strop.

Kameron Loe: A surprisingly decent reliever for Texas in 2008, Loe upped his strikeout rates (12.7 percent in 2007 to 14.9 percent in 2008), slashed his walk rate (9.1 percent to 6.0 percent), surrendered fewer line drives than ever before (17.5 percent to 16.2 percent) and ramped his average fastball velocity back up near his 2005 level of 89.9 mph (89.5 mph, according to Baseball Info Solutions) after making the full-time transition from the starting rotation back to the bullpen, resulting in a steady 3.23 ERA compiled over 30.2 innings in relief with Texas in 2008.

He may never develop the third pitch necessary for his dreams of becoming a full-time starting pitcher to come to fruition, but cutting bait with Loe could come back to bite the Rangers. "The Snake" isn't such a bad little reliever, after all, and while he'll always be somewhat hittable, he's not nearly as superfluous a piece as some perceive him to be.

Wes Littleton: Like Loe, Littleton has no minor league options remaining and thus must be exposed to league-wide waivers if he is to be outrighted from the 40-man roster. And after his uninspiring 2008 campaign spent between Triple-A Oklahoma and Texas, there's probably a fair chance the 26-year-old sidewinder would sneak through waivers.

Luis Mendoza: I wrote this back on September 23rd:

[...] Mendoza, on the other hand, will probably find himself sent to the back of the relief line, and might well find himself jettisoned from the club's 2009 plans entirely given his inexplicably poor performance on the big league bump this season, which includes bearing the bulk of the responsibility for last night's 11th-inning loss. Dig beyond the 8.66 ERA (50 ERA+) and 1.91 WHIP compiled over 62.1 innings this season, and you'll find a pitcher who has posted an inconceivably poor VORP of -32.0 this season.

That mark represents not only the worst VORP in baseball in 2008, but also the worst single-season VORP in baseball since 2000, when a 23-year-old by the name of Roy Halladay notched a -36.5 VORP over 67.2 innings, remarkably making 13 starts and six additional relief appearances before being demoted to High-A Dunedin to begin the 2001 season - a daring strategy, which the Rangers similarly employed with Edinson Volquez last year, that has since been dubbed the "Halladay treatment."

Two years and a boatload of mental and mechanical adjustments later, he won the American League Cy Young Award. But that's not the point. Rather, the point is that Mendoza will probably have to make some radical changes to his game, or suddenly have the proverbial light bulb go off in his head, in order to convince the organization that he deserves a second extended opportunity in the majors.

Mendoza, for what it's worth, finished the season with a -31.6 VORP -- and that, for the sabermetrically uninitiated, means his 2008 big league pitching performance was cumulatively 31.6 runs below replacement-level, which is simply atrocious. That mid-90s sinker of his remains incredibly enticing, but it's clear he has a very long way to go. Whether that equates to him being axed from the 40-man roster Armando Galarraga style is not yet clear, but I wouldn't entirely rule out the possibility.

The Field (Kason Gabbard, Doug Mathis, Dustin Nippert, Joaquin Arias, Travis Metcalf): Don't foresee any surprise roster cuts coming from this group.

One last note: Major League teams are not prohibited from removing players from their 40-man rosters after the November 20th roster cutoff date and before the Rule 5 Draft; they are, however, precluded from adding minor league players between November 20th and the draft, and are permitted to add only Major League free agents.

Happy roster-crunching.