Saturday Morning Rangers Notes: Back To Reality
Joey Matschulat
Has free-agent closer Kerry Wood (pictured above) already priced himself out of the Texas Rangers' range? - felicity redwell/Flickr.comJust when you thought it was safe to get excited about what the off-season might yield for the Texas Rangers in terms of exciting, headline-grabbing acquisitions in both the trade and free-agent sectors of this winter's baseball talent market, sobering doses of reality were administered from all sides:
● During a Friday team press conference staged at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington with the intent of formally introducing new pitching coach Mike Maddux to the local media, team president Nolan Ryan emphasized that the Rangers would not be expanding their 2009 payroll past the $75 million mark, which would ostensibly all but rule out the possibility of Texas pursuing the likes of Milton Bradley, Casey Blake, Brian Fuentes, Jon Garland, Brad Penny, Ben Sheets, Kerry Wood or any other free agent seeking more than roughly $7-8 million annually over the span of a multi-year contract:
"We're just not going to commit to the high-priced free agent -- starter or closer -- that requires a long-term commitment and large sums of money," Ryan said. "I'm certainly not saying we won't at least look into the free-agent market. We'll look at any opportunity that helps the ballclub, but it has to stay with our overall plan of committing to our young players.
"Do I think we'll deviate from that? I don't think so."
On the one hand, I think most of us can openly admit that this is the sort of utterly deflating affirmation of organizational frugality we should have seen coming all along. The rampant speculation from the press in recent weeks that Texas would be looking to sign [insert name of your favorite high-priced free agent] always was a bit sensational, and in some cases more or less completely implausible (at least SI.com's Jon Heyman rescinded his prediction that the Rangers would ink Francisco Rodriguez, because that was perhaps the silliest thing I'd read from a mainstream columnist this off-season), but it was fun to read, and in certain cases there appeared to be a confluence of variables working in favor of Texas making a big free-agent splash.
This sort of emphatic statement on the part of Ryan leaves me feeling a bit like a kid in a candy shop stocked with every imaginable chocolate treat armed with only enough money to afford a single stick of stale bubble gum haphazardly tossed in the bargain bin near the register. And while it's certainly a great and wonderful thing that the Rangers are committing so eagerly to their young players (though perhaps in part out of financial necessity), you can't help but feel just a little disheartened that the organization would adopt this stance less than 24 hours after the onset of the free-agent signing period.
Most of the players I listed above evoke little in the way of interest from me, but I also see a few players that could definitely help this club in 2009 and beyond at the right price, and to outright dismiss the idea of going after one of them at this stage is admittedly disheartening to me as a fan.
If anything, this proclamation almost seemed designed to temper our expectations early on in the game -- which, given my above comments, is probably a good thing in the long run.
● News from the trade market wasn't much more optimistic on Friday, as MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan indicated the Red Sox, whom are known to covet the Rangers' stockpile of catching, are reluctant to part ways with promising young right-hander Clay Buchholz (although Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe still believes a Jarrod Saltalamacchia-for-Buchholz swap remains within the realm of possibility, while MVN.com's Evan Brunell thinks a Saltalamacchia-for-Michael Bowden and Coco Crisp deal is possible), and will likely wait to see if they can re-sign Jason Varitek before embarking on another course of action.
It increasingly appears that the two sides have reached an impasse, and it's quite possible we won't see any further movement on this front until Rangers general manager Jon Daniels and Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein converse face to face at next month's winter meetings.
● By the way, the Marlins are reportedly "adamantly opposed" to relinquishing any of their young starters in a trade, a group which comprises Josh Johnson, Andrew Miller, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Chris Volstad. Not exactly the most encouraging update.
On a brighter note, that Mike Maddux has really got something. Just as remarkable as the overwhelming degree of praise that has been lavished upon the 47-year-old pitching oracle from all corners has been the universal lack of criticism -- in other words, ain't nobody got a bad thing to say about him.
And with insightful nuggets of wisdom like these (thanks to Mike Hindman of the Dallas Morning News for nabbing these quotes today), it's not hard to see why:
Maddux is undeterred by the reputation of the Ballpark or the pitching history of this organization and believes that he can make the Ballpark a "home field advantage." He wants his staff to "stay on attack. Pitch to contact and believe in ourselves. Show 'em who's boss. I'm not biting on this 'Arlington is a grinder' business. The other guys, they don't want to pitch here, and that's something we can use to our advantage."
Hindman, by the way, suggests that Kevin Millwood -- who made an appearance at the Ballpark on Friday, along with Kameron Loe, Jason Jennings, Brandon McCarthy, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Taylor Teagarden and Chris Davis -- appeared "svelte." That is probably the first and last time we will ever see that adjective associated with Millwood anywhere.
According to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Texas will kick the tires on Chad Cordero -- whose medical records they've asked to check out -- and Freddy Garcia, and could re-sign Jennings, presumably to a minor league deal with an invitation to big league spring training.
2009 single-game ticket prices have not yet been set, and likely won't be set until the team obtains a better sense of where the economy is headed. Smart plan.
The New York Mets hired Luis Alicea as their first base coach on Friday.
Good morning, and in case I don't see ya, good afternoon, good evening, and good night.
Reader Comments (13)
The only way a guy like Garcia or Cordero or Sheets helps is if we take the (bigger) risk of signing him long enough (eg 2 - 5 years via incentives and options) that he takes us into the "salad days." Anyone here for one year only takes away a roster spot for development just long enough to prove to the Yankees that he's healthy and ready to leave us.
The 1-yr deals (to trade at the ASB) have served us well, but that phase of rebuilding is over. It's time for the guys we got (and the even more valuable guys we can get with our remaining vets) to take their hard knocks for a year.
It got ugly last summer when Bradley, Kinsler and Murphy went down, and the pitching was just horrible. There is a very real chance that occurs again this year, since we are probably going to be going with the same core group. Actually, it's likely the offense will be worse, since Bradley will be gone.
Don't want to be a wet blanket, but 2009 could easily, easily be a LOT worse than last year. I guess I'll wait to see what JD can do in the trade market before I pronounce doom and gloom, but right now you can damn sure bet I am not going to fork over the bucks for a ticket package!
What we (GM-wanna-be's) buy into as a very sensible plan, the average fan, attending for pure entertainment, sees as our being simply "worse than the other team" (despite the fact that the other team may also fail to make the playoffs, AND may have sold off their farm to put out a better known bunch of players aspiring to a slightly less mediocre record.)
I hope that, to buy some time in the eyes of that paying fan, the Rangers don't get another Sammy Sosa type, that creates interest, but at the expense of another player's development. I hope they don't use signings just to create interest. That's what promos are for! I hope they instead just get a little zany with some old-timey promotions (like when they'd give away a used car to 20 lucky fans on the last day of the season), maybe awarding 1 child per homestand a chance to sit in the dugout on the homestand's last game (drawn from all the tickets of kids from earlier games in the homestand).., or a chance for one fan per game to hit off Nolan Ryan after warm-ups.) Or...
No more bobble-heads where the player isn't even in uniform...
My mom was once chosen to try and shoot a hockey puck through a little hole in a board blocking the goal at a Pittsburgh Penguins game. The fans need to see each other and the players being playful (as they were when sliding on the tarp in New York last year!) Even if only one fan per game were in some funny, nerve-racking position, every other fan would have fun imagining himself in those shoes. It would go a long way in getting us through the growing pains, grinning and bearing it WITH THEM until "the salad days." The only thing that can stop us now is a lost year, caused by quick-fix, attendance-oriented signings that block development.
Let's stay the course, and have fun in the meantime.
But first we have to make room via trades. I'm back on Kouzmanoff's bandwagon. He's had a high OPS almost his entire Minor League career. Last year's .299 on-base %in SD was his area lacking development in an otherwise very successful campaign (in a pitcher's park, in a an offensively unsupportive line-up). How about Murphy, Mathis and Littleton for him?
Millwood - big injury risk, also has been ineffective after 4-5 innings for many of his starts over the past 2 seasons. That's not a good sign, and anyone who thinks this guy is an "ace" is seriously deluded.
Padilla - mild injury risk, also inconsistent, tends to go great until he gets guys on base, and then he's maddening to watch. Seems afraid to go after guys at times (meaning he'll just walk the bases loaded).
McCarthy - do I even need to say anything?
Feldman - pitched great at times last season, but looked pretty mortal most nights. He probably wouldn't even make most ML pitching rotations.
Hurley - great promise, but absolutely no experience against big league hitters.
Harrison - great promise, and had some strong games, but again, very green.
Benoit - big injury risk, proved to be very hittable last season. Is he done?
CJ - is he over his arm troubles? Can he get it together, mentally?
Franky - pretty good at times, pretty horrible at others. Walks way too many guys for a late inning reliever.
Hunter - good minor league numbers, looked overmatched in the bigs last season.
Nippert - tantalized with 2 or 3 really great games, but all the others were absolutely horrifying.
What does all that say to me? First, they have to add at least 2 arms in the bullpen, and they are going to have to count on an almost perfect mix of ideal conditions if they are going to compete with this group - and that means (1) avoiding major injuries, and (2) all these question marks have to make major steps forward in effectiveness. Can that happen? Sure, I guess. Will that happen, very very unlikely. Mike Maddux probably has the hardest job in all the major leagues trying to turn this ragtag group into a contending staff.
This stuff is the basis for my belief that the Rangers really need to add at least 2 new starters (or potential starters) and 2 new relievers into the mix, and that also means clearing away some of the dross. At some point, the team has to just get rid of guys like LIttleton, Loe, etc. etc. and bring in pitchers who can not walk batters and who can get guys out. Period.
I guess the bottom line is that I don't see how this management sees a different outcome with the same group of dudes. And, like I said, when you subtract Bradley from the mix, that makes the offense a whole lot less potent, as well. Don't know who they think is going to buy into this product, but I guess more power to them.
The attendance/payroll tradeoff should indeed be interesting to watch...even the most optimistic of those in the Rangers' sales department would have to agree that an off-season with no impact or buzz-inducing roster moves (heck, even last winter there was Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley) coupled with a worsening economy and possibly increasing ticket prices would be setting the organization up for an even bigger disaster than 2008 was attendance-wise.
Of course, winning is the ultimate cure-all, and I suppose it's theoretically possible that this team could be a huge surprise in 2009 even without any outside help. A strong start in April would be absolutely critical in terms of re-capturing the fan base's attention, however, because if those above conditions all fall into place AND Texas has a poor April...well, it's going to get extremely ugly extremely fast, even if Derek Holland comes up later in the season and draws David Clyde-like media hype.
Kouzmanoff: Blech. He's not as bad as his overall offensive numbers suggest, but his defense is also nothing special, he really can't take a walk and his LH/RH splits are a bit strange in that he was completely inept against left-handers last year after having a monster campaign against them in '07. I mean, I guess he could represent an improvement oover the leading internal candidate (Travis Metcalf) for third base at the moment, but I sure wouldn't give up Murphy for him.
Maybe that's just me, though.
I'm having a hard time understanding why Hicks picks (ha) the 70 mil mark as his magic number, especially if there are top tier guys out there who would seriously consider playing in this crazy place. I suppose the idea is to keep payroll down so that you can sign some of these young guys to long term deals. As a fan, all I can say is that had better happen.
And I agree with you, Joey. A slow start next season will certainly bring sudden death to Wash's Rangers career, and could mean the ugliest box office ever in the BPIA era.
Here is the question I keep asking myself: What reason can the club give to convince me to shell out the big bucks for a season ticket package? I'm not just trying to be a wise guy - I really want to know what kind of product they are going to try to sell me. If it's Kevin Millwood as this team's "ace," then no thanks. If it's CJ and Franky as our closers, then no thanks. If it's bringing back Jennings, then no thanks.
Nice post JDolla$. I see a lot to agree with there.
And I can't help but notice that your list of pitchers you have concerns with is basically the entire staff.
I wish I could strongly disagree with you regarding the potential for another rough year, but I can't. I can support the general 'pitch to contact' philosophy Maddux brings, but having confidence in stuff that isn't good enough for the majors could get the bottom half of the rotation killed (maybe Millwood too?). At least we should see walks decrease. I think it will be an interesting transition.
This is why I agree that the team must either sign a FA pitcher (late in the winter for a "deal" we just couldn't pass up, if necessary, to save face on previous statements) or make trades to add pitchers like Buchholz and Sonnanstine - both of whom I really like. I'm not at all convinced that we have enough in-house starters for 2009. I also disagree with the idea that we do not need to look for replacements now for Millwood and Padilla (whose contracts will end after 2009) because Holland and Feliz are on the way. Prospects have setbacks or get hurt. McCarthy may not ever get back. We need to keep adding more talent to the staff. You're right JDolla$, there's still not enough there today.
But we must add by subtraction (2-for1-type) trades first (before signing FA's), or each FA could cost a lot more than money.
Well, for what it's worth, Texas hasn't actually hiked season-ticket prices yet...well, at least not on current holders:
Sounds like Nolan is setting himself up for some massive disappointment at this rate. And in reference to JD's remark on Washington's tenuous status, it's only fair to think at this stage that he'll be the first to take the fall if this thing goes south early on in the season...he may have approved of the hirings of Maddux/Moore and the promotion of Anderson (though I can only confirm that he was alright with the Maddux hiring, per Evan Grant), but that does nothing to dispel the widely held notion that he's not being meted the managerial autonomy necessary to select his own coaching staff, and that obviously doesn't speak too highly of the organization's long-term confidence in him if that's actually the case.
For what it's worth, his 2010 option has not yet been exercised -- and I doubt it will be anytime soon, either.
All I can say is "AMEN" to briant.
To me, and I'm just a guy who watches every Rangers game religiously, the problems right now are obvious. We have a terrible pitching core this season, and we can't count on our young saviors to bail us out this year. In other words, there's a big gap that we need to fill with something good. We need at least 3 guys we can count on to give us 200 IP and at least a mid-4.00 era. Do we have 3 guys like that right now? Seems doubtful. And compounding this problem is a porous bullpen comprised of guys who don't/can't throw strikes. There's no way this team plays over .500 unless these issues can be resolve.
The other thing is that we have a bunch of guys filling up our 40 man roster that need to either start playing like major leaguers, or they need to be jettisoned. And the catching situation needs to be addressed. There's no way you demote Laird to AAA, and I don't see how you can demote Salty or Teagarden, either. Those guys need to play every day - or at least get regular at bats at the major league level.
I'm kind of frustrated when I hear Hicks saying he's not going to spend more than $70 mil this season, because as a fan who actually follows the team, I really don't believe that this same group is going to turn some major corner and start playing like the 2008 Rays or something like that. Sure, you want to avoid blowing big money on long term deals for questionable guys - but jeez. Sheets? That guy has been pretty damned great, a lot better than Zito ever was!
I really think that viewpoint is prevalent through the fan base right now, JD...on the one hand, the Rangers might be smart to get that whole "We're not going to sign anybody expensive" out there from the start so that expectations for a big free-agent splash aren't raised too high (and then greeted with inevitable disappointment), but the flip side of that is that you're doing little to excite a fan base that is already avoiding the Ballpark in record numbers.
Don't forget the absolutely miserable defense as well. The pitching staff was bad on their own account, but the terrible fielding behind them only dropped them a rung lower.