What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
If baseball pays what baseball pays...what is CruuuuuuuuuuZ worth now?
Not an eliete defensive right fielder but power to compensate!Better than Vlad.
4@15 is a fair median but inflation sucks!what does it take to keep (or improve)?CruuuuuuZ is a playoff tested Ranger we must keep.
Probably something similar to what Swisher got. The problem for him will be staying healthy all season and finish putting up strong numbers. Although another huge post season could up the figures to the 16-17 mil range.
For the Rangers Cruz is making 10 million this year; probably with the hope that he'll turn in another season like 2010. If he ends up with 1 - 2 WAR, I'm guessing they let him walk regardless. If he breaks 2.5 WAR, he might get a few more years 10. But there are several teams that would give more. And all of that is predicated on how he comes through the PED accusations.
Dont forget the money Melky got after not being able to finish the season because of a PED suspension, so unfortunately I dont think it will hurt him that much. My guess is he will look for 5-6 years at about 17-18 and settle for 3 in the 14-15 range which the Rangers might end up being interested in since he is the polar opposite of Josh as far as off the field and being loved by the clubhouse and fans.
COGP writes: My guess is he will look for 5-6 years at about 17-18 and settle for 3 in the 14-15 range ....
Nelson Cruz is in his age-34 season in 2013, so your salary expectations seem unrealistically liberal. Even if he duplicates his .318/.374/.576 (147 wRC+) triple slash of 2010, he's still a 35 year-old.
At the maximum a team will only offer him 3 years. Okay, maybe the Angels and Phillies offer him 4. But even at that, you are paying for him knowing (a) his bat has already started declining, (b) his outfield defense has dramatically declined, and (c) he's shown signs of fragility off and on through the prime of his Major League career.
I like Nelson Cruz a lot, but I'm not putting a ton of stock into what he has left in the tank. If you are breaking him down to the bone into his age-35-through-37 seasons, he's a 4 outfielder who fluctuates in and out of right field and DH vs. left-handed pitching. That's what he has been turning into, therefore that's what he will be.
You don't give 3 years to a 4th outfielder.
If it's me, I like his bat in a 120-ish game sample, but I'd be hesitant to offer him any more than $12-14 million over two years. And if I'm Cruz, I could probably get closer to $10 million AAV or more on the open market.
Another bulls eye post, Eric.
Eric wrote->>"I like Nelson Cruz a lot, but I'm not putting a ton of stock into what he has left in the tank. If you are breaking him down to the bone into his age-35-through-37 seasons, he's a 4 outfielder who fluctuates in and out of right field and DH vs. left-handed pitching. That's what he has been turning into, therefore that's what he will be.
You don't give 3 years to a 4th outfielder."<<
To be brief, someone WILL give him such a deal. The Rangers (John Daniels) is too smart/crafty for that.We see him declining into 4th OF status. Nellie, himself, DOES NOT. He's been healthy of late and Wash keeps telling him how superior a defensive player he is. He WAS a very good defender. But that was 2010. Since then ALL facets of Nellie's game have declined. he'd make a perfect DH/4th OF. It's a shame it won't happen.
At the end of the day, Nellie just needs to perform well enough that we offer him arbitration. In which case the FO is ok w/him accepting or ok w/him going elsewhere and netting us a draft pick
If he tails off the rest of the yr then I'm wondering how likely the FO would be to offer him arb.
Arbitration? He's a FA at the end of the year.
Go Rangers: Yeah you're really tuned in.
sorry - meant tendering him a qualifying offer not arb
@eric: Close, but Cruz actually turns 33 in July. That extra year does mean a little bit.
I could see the Rangers re-signing Cruz, but I would think it would entail DHing a lot. His defense in RF has been declining substantially the last couple years.
I suppose he could learn 1B, like almost anyone can with some practice, but I'm not sure if we'll need another 1B. Could be Mitch, or possibly Ian, next year. Who knows? But at this point I would say there's a decent chance of re-signing Cruz. I'd guess about 40%, but that will likely fluctuate over the rest of the season. And I would not be terribly surprised if the Rangers offered him a QO, assuming his season ended on the pace he's established so far.
No way Rangers resign him. He's gonna want like a 4 yr 60 mil. The best I'll do to keep Cruz is 3 yr 27 mil. If not let him walk. He is replaceable, especially his defense. And he isn't getting any younger.
The best I'll do to keep Cruz Aaron ???????????????
I think the qualifying offer is almost guaranteed for Cruz right now. The OF market is very thin this off season. The top end looks like Choo and Ellsbury. I think both of them are going to be majorly over paid. With the bounce back year I could see Choo topping the Swisher deal from last year. Ellsbury is a good CF, when he can keep himself in the lineup. I think if the Rangers can keep Cruz for 1-2 more years I think they do it, that gives enough time to get replacements around. I'd probably look at offering him something like 2/26 with an option for the 3rd year right now.
right now I just don't see how we don't keep one of Cruz or Murphy. Martin and Gentry both as starting OF here looks somewhat likely at the moment. I don't think that would be a truly horrible outcome either, but it definitely kills off our depth.
Andy, you are right. I was thinking he was born in 1979 for some reason, though it doesn't really change my stance in this instance.
I like your point about making a QO. I'm not in touch with how he projects on the Type-A line (which I know they got rid of with the new CBA, but that's still what I call it), but I'd assume a solid year would make him worth a draft pick, because he has a pretty decent track record.
The qualifying offer next offseason figures to be somewhere in the range of $13.5-13.75 million. Would you pay Nellie one year at that rate? I have a hard time thinking the Rangers would, which is why I couldn't see them tendering him an offer. To boot, I don't think many teams would be rushing to get in line to forfeit a draft pick to sign Nelson Cruz in the twilight of his career.
Still, good point.
The Rangers' odds of re-signing Nellie correlate directly to (a) him being willing to sign a below-market deal knowing that (b) his role will be different moving forward. To me, that's no more than a 2-year contract worth $6-7 million AAV, which I don't think he would accept.
Chances of Nelson Cruz being back in 2014: 15%
Chance of one of your posts interesting anyone-.02%
Cruz is a streaky hitter with a marginal glove today; well, except for that diving catch the other day in Oakland.
We will have Stanton by the end of the season so keeping Cruz will not be an issue. I think we do make the qualifying offer and if he accepts he is the DH in 2014.
Thank you for your service Cruz....I will never forgive you though for mis playing the "out" in game six.
JD your comment about Eric's thoughts is out of line. Go find one of those idiot web sites to post, we are tired of the way you role.
If Nellie stays healthy, it's a cinch he gets the QO...
And, like CoGP noted - he's the anti-Josh in that he's in it for the team rather than his own stats. I'd love to see him stay around long enough to get a WSRing and go off into the sunset a Champion.
Defense is not the be-all end-all you guys seem to think. Greg Luzinski made a real good living bashing fastballs and galloping past fly balls then chasing them to the wall while in Philly. So long as the Boomstick sounds off, the player has a place to swing it.
I think the QO is an extremely realistic offer, given the complete lack of outfield talent on the FA market. If they extend the offer and they accept, they overpay a little bit based on market value for a year. If he declines, they get a draft pick that probably will be worth more than the value that Cruz would have brought in that extra season from Cruz in the first place. I say give him the offer, obviously if his stats hold up. The reward definitely outweigh the risk.
What is Cruz worth now? Less than J Upton.
mmmmmmurph: .0002 for your posts.
choo is the rfer for the rangers next year. he is their kind of outfielder and deserves a lengthy free agent contract. i like nellie but he is in no man's land for a rangers contract
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