What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Baseball Talk on Facebook asks if we prefer managers who go with their gut or those that rely on numbers. At the risk of sounding like an elitist fan that may come across arrogant, I'm saddened at how many people said "gut" only, and some even said bad things about numbers, and I'm inclined to pity them for what I perceive as their ignorance. Like this little nugget:
"The gut, never let's u down!!"
Is it wrong to pity them? It's not like I can educate them in the comments of a Facebook post. Even those that might be open-minded probably won't be bothered to read an educational post.
For the record, I think managing by numbers 100%, without ever trusting a hunch, is dishonest to the human element. But of course, using your gut for every move is unscientific and unreliable, even if it's impossible to prove that, when a hunch is wrong, that going with the numbers would have yielded better results (because that's no guarantee). I think the best a manager can do is to be cognizant of numbers, but be willing to consider a hunch to the contrary, and, on occasion, act on it.
There's a place for both, but it should be gut having to be really telling you to over ride the numbers to do it.
^^ also, numbers tell the larger, broader story of probability and things like that, while gut deals with the day to day aspect of eyesight baseball. A player can have great numbers and projections, but when a manager sees something in bp that he doesn't like, numbers shouldn't stop him from making a change. That being said, numbers ftw
I don't think it has to be one or the other, but a combination of both. I also think you have to take into consideration the experience of the manager. For example, I would trust the gut of Jim Leyland more than the gut of Bo Porter.
I agree with what Son of Jurick posted, about the day-to-day aspect of eyesight baseball and that numbers shouldn't stop a manager from making a change. All of us post things based on what we see over the course of 3 hours each night. In reality, that's a small sample size The manager and coaching staff see these players for hours and hours each day from late February-early October, and can recognize when something is off.
Your post: idiotic or just boring?
So we're all in agreement...you need both. Using your gut alone, with no regard for numbers, is a bad approach.
Oh gee whiz. So managers should use both the numbers and gut instinct.
I didn't see that coming...........
I agree that a manger will have better results if he uses numbers but it's important to point out that it depends on what numbers are used.
In relation to Ron Washington, one might be surprised to hear this but according to TR Sullivan, Wash does use numbers. What's unfortunate is that he almost exclusively looks at RBI and Runs scored... at least according to Sullivan - sorry, I don't have the link but you might be able to find in one of his archived 'in box' articles. I think runs scored and RBI by themselves are awful metrics to use for making roster construction or in-game ph decisions and IMO, explains a lot about why Wash makes the decisions he makes and why in many cases, those decisions are ineffective.
but he's BLACK
A quality manager (which we do not have) buttresses his "gut feelings" on the numbers available to him.
If his "gut" says Moreland needs to bat against Cliff Lee "because he's due...", he's an idiot. Bring in the righty.
Know your numbers. Use your numbers. Then, make a "gut decision" that has some reasoned support.
What this post meant was--Managing, black or white?
I remember reading that mailbag when TR Sullivan said that Wash looks at runs scored and RBI for his 'numbers.' While I think it would be foolish for a front office to look at these things alone, and I can understand if some of them don't look at those things at all. But a manager makes moves from pitch to pitch and at-bat to at-bat, in small sample sizes that is all you have to look at really. There is no such thing as short term WAR. There is no such thing as a small sample size of UZR, which are great stats used for the front office, but they think long term with every decision they make. A Manager only thinks long term with the day to day personnel decisions, like does Berkman need a day off? Yes, he does I messed up last year by playing my regulars too often. Even though I realize Moreland may not be the best hitter vs. a same handed pitcher, I need to rest Berkman and give Moreland a vote of confidence. Is Wash the best Manager in MLB? By no means. But he does some great things as well. The way he has his players run the bases has won the Rangers many games in the past few years. Wash is still learning, I don't think he's the best but if the Rangers stick with him they will have one of the best Managers in the game sooner rather than later. With this all being said, we should use this year as more of a judgement on the job he does than any other year. This is the worst lineup he has had on paper in a while and the worst bullpen. Let's let this year play out before we make decisions about Wash.
BUT HE'S BLACK!!
@Low KeyI would prefer Wash to look at OPS rather than either of RBI or runs scored. Both RBI and runs scored are aggregated stats (the same as WAR in that regard) and they are opportunistic stats for which other team members' successes largely contribute.
I would prefer you quit posting such idiotic statements.
I believe (or at least hope) that the "gut" is really just another word for using wisdom and knowledge for making the best decision, not just using stats alone. For example: 1) A manager may know to sit a player that had a bad night (off the field) the day before; 2) A manager may be able to see a minor injury, flaw, or distration that may limit a player; 3) A manager may even make the wrong move to help a players confidence or give a player experience that will make him better in the future, but maybe not the best available option today--in other words provide better long-term benefits than immediate results; 4) overall team chemestry and "keeping everybody happy and content" may require odd moves from time to time. In other words, I would use the gut only if it based on some rational basis for giving your team the best chance of becoming a winner, at least on the big picture, over a whole season. This kind of logic applies in the post season--using your best at the moment for a win today is usually done. But, in the regular season you would probably not use the best available--like never using a top starter in relief, or on three days rest, or playing an injured hitter, who may help you wil one game, but aggravate an injury, etc.
Hey Stuckus, I met your sister[F%#@us}
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