What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
As I have stated numerous times throughout the offseason, I am extremely excited to watch this year's team play. I think we have a great group of young players, and have IMPROVED this offseason.
I have said several times that it reminds me of the 2010 Ranger's opening day roster. To prove my point, I built a spreadsheet with the 2010 opening day roster with those player's WAR totals for the year compared with each player's respective 2013 replacement/comparable and their projected WAR total for this year using ZiPS. Here's what I came up with:
2010 Roster 2010 fWAR 2013 Roster 2013 ZiPS Projected WARJosh Hamilton 8.4 Leonys Martin 1.7Michael Young 2.6 Adrian Beltre 5.2C.J. Wilson 4.8 Yu Darvish 4.5Vladimir Guerrero 1.5 Lance Berkman 1.4Scott Feldman 1.3 Nick Tepesch 0Rich Harden -0.5 Derek Holland 1.3Nelson Cruz 5 Nelson Cruz 2.5Frank Francisco 1.1 Joe Nathan 0.4Neftali Feliz 1.9 Cory Burns, Josh Lindblom, Joe Ortiz, Tanner Scheppers -0.1Julio Borbon 1.1 Craig Gentry 2.5Darren Oliver 1.6 Robbie Ross 0.3Chris Ray -0.2 Derek Lowe 0.5Colby Lewis 4.8 Alexi Ogando 2Matt Harrison 0.1 Matt Harrison 2.3Chris Davis -0.6 Mitch Moreland 1.1Elvis Andrus 2 Elvis Andrus 3.8Darren O'Day 1 Cory Burns, Josh Lindblom, Joe Ortiz, Tanner Scheppers -0.1Taylor Teagarden -0.2 AJ Pierzenski 2.3Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0 Geovany Soto 2Dustin Nippert -0.2 Jason Frasor 0.1David Murphy 1.9 David Murphy 2.1Doug Mathis -0.5 Michael Kirkman -0.5Andres Blanco -0.1 Ian Kinsler 4.5Ryan Garko -0.6 Leury Garcia 0.9Joaquin Arias -0.2 Jeff Baker 0
Total WAR 36 Total (Predicted) WAR 40.7Actual 2010 WAR 53.9
I used an average for the 4 relievers fighting for the 2 BP slots, and Tepesch came from no where enough that fangraphs did not project for him. I used zero as a conservative estimate.
So looking at this, our Opening Day lineup is projected to be 4.7 games better than the 2010 opening day lineup. "But wait!" you may say, "What about Cliff Lee? Where's 2010 Kinsler? (Who's Ryan Garko? How the heck did MY end up with 2.6 WAR?)"
There are some obvious flaws, mainly being in the comparison of opening day lineups yet using actual WAR vs. Projected ZiPS. I wanted to use ZiPS for both, but I couldn't find the WAR totals for players and was too lazy to calculate it myself. Also, the 2010 takes in actual production from the year and excludes notable additions throughout the year.
Anyhow, if you take it at face value, our 2013 squad is PROJECTED to be better than the 2010 Opening Day squad actually was. The 2010 team went from an opening day team with 30.6 WAR to a team total of 53.9 WAR, which includes additions throughout the year not included in the opening day team. Thus, if you factor in Lewis, Feliz, Soria, perhaps Profar or Olt, and any additional roster improvements that may occur throughout the course of the 2013 season, you could see a similar year end total well above our opening day projected.
So for whatever (if anything) that is worth, enjoy.
If you want the copy of the spreadsheet to see or play around with, let me know and I'll email it to you. Sorry the formatting sucked on here.
good post. I like the research you put in. thanks for sharing
Thanks Rangerbourne, this was interesting.
Thanks guys. I'm hoping to fill in 2011 and 12, as well in the near future. We've seen our teams marginally improve year over year since 2009, and once I get in the numbers, I'm hoping to prove this year's team is the best yet from a WAR standpoint.
As you can see from the 2013 to 2010 comparative, we have reduced our negative WAR players from 8 down to 3, with two of those being our 2 bullpen spots at an average of -.1 WAR. JD has taken our team, lost our 8 WAR player and other in the all star range, and shored up the back end of the 25, notably the rotation and bench. I think the projections for our relievers are pretty low, which also may help us with surplus. All in all, this team is more solid top to bottom than our first WS team started out as.
Nice job very good read!
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